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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Zero zero in Nashville bottom of six. Evan McKendry has thrown 4.2 IP in relief of DL Hall with only one hit against five strikeouts.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, the defense is included in the projected runs allowed. One reason I think the Brewers have consistently beat their projections during the Stearns/Arnold era is they excel at both defense and relief pitching, two things the projections regress extra hard because of their inherent volatility.
  3. sveumrules
    Thru 38 G | 156 PA before his hamstring Rhys was at 233/340/477 (131 wRC+). I think that is more or less what the Brewers were hoping for when they signed him. Hoskins is never going to put up big WAR numbers because he is slow (-10 BSR career) and a poor defensive 1B/DH (-74 DEF career) so he is starting off about 13 to 14 runs in the red per every 500 PAs. As long as he gets back to putting up something around his career 124 wRC+ he'll be providing definite value even if the accompanying WAR is underwhelming.
  4. sveumrules
    Yeah, believe there was a report that the Astros watched him throw a bullpen recently. They are pretty much in the perfect spot on the Venn diagram of "Already Hated Franchise" and "Need SP Badly" and "Six Games Under .500 Almost Halfway Through The Season"...but does not appear as though they've reached Bauer levels of desperation just yet.
  5. sveumrules
    BRef methodology is pretty shoddy... The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. So at this point they are still estimating the team's quality based on games from the end of last season when we had Burnes, Williams, Woodruff made starts down the stretch, Canha, Santana, hot Tyrone, etc.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, pretty much comes down to the projections believing the Brewers are still due for some pretty serious regression. Can’t get into the guts on BPro, but FanGraphs thinks the Brewers will score 4.43 R/G (13th) and allow 4.46 R/G (21st) the rest of the way versus actually scoring 4.80 R/G (7th) and actually allowing 3.91 R/G (8th) through their first 74 games.
  7. sveumrules
    72.2% Win Division & 85.4% Make Playoffs at FanGraphs. 69.6% Win Division & 85.1% Make Playoffs at BPro.
  8. sveumrules
    In addition to the aforementioned Jesus Made bomb, 18yo RHP Wenderlyn King has worked around 5 H | 1 BB | 3 HBP to allow only 1 ER through 4 IP (4 K) for Crew Uno so far today.
  9. sveumrules
    Crew Dos falls 2-0 in the rare low scoring DSL duel. Pedro Tovar (3-3, 2B, SB), Kevin Ereu (2-3, 2B) and Luis Corobo (1-3, 2B) made most of the noise on offense while Frandy Lafond went 0 for 2 with a walk and stolen bag in his debut. 18yo RHPs Johan Zapata (3 IP | 1 H | 2 K) and Omar Camilo (1 IP | 1 H | 3 K) finished with four frames of scoreless, walkless work.
  10. sveumrules
    Alec has -11 OAA in only 685 career innings as an OF. That is pretty brutal. Right up there with teammate Jordan Walker at -14 OAA in 1,055 innings as an OF. For comparison someone like Hunter Renfroe has also put up -11 OAA over that same time frame, but it took him 2,533 innings to do it. Andrew Benintendi put up -14 OAA too, but in 2,740 innings. Kind of emblematic of the Cardinals problems as a whole the last couple years... 2018-22 STL 392 W (7th) | -0.29 ERA/FIP (2nd) | +80 OAA (3rd) 2023-24 STL 107 W (24th) | +0.30 ERA/FIP (28th) | -8 OAA (20th) Defense has collapsed and pitchers have gone from one of the best in MLB at beating their peripherals to one of the worst. Meanwhile the Brewers... 2018-22 MIL 395 W (6th) | -0.12 ERA/FIP (9th) | +25 OAA (10th) 2023-24 MIL 135 W (5th) | -0.47 ERA/FIP (1st) | +57 OAA (1st) Pretty close with STL from 2018-22, but Arnold's Brewers have pulled away the last year plus by leaning even harder into defense than they did under Stearns. The bullpen's MLB best +19.14 WPA over the last two years (2nd place is all the way down at +11.81, STL in 19th at +1.61) has obviously been huge too.
  11. sveumrules
    Nice. Believe a win tonight would run the division lead to 7.5 games then which would be the Brewers largest margin of the season so far.
  12. sveumrules
    Bad News: The Brewers 92 wRC+ versus LHP this year ranks 23rd in MLB. Better News: They still have gone 9-8 in games against LH starters so far. As far as Hoskins specifically, it is only 35 PA vs LHP so far this year so I would expect him to put up better results against southpaws as the season goes on and he hopefully gets his legs back under him.
  13. sveumrules
    Most teams have multiple awful relievers occupying the last couple few spots in the bullpen. That the Brewers only have one (and that is only due to numerous injuries) is a testament to their ridiculous pitching depth. For all the runs they’ve given up, guys like Vieira, Mitch White and now Elieser have eaten up 36.2 IP (over 12% of the relief workload) while combining for -0.37 WPA and one credited loss.
  14. sveumrules
    Good thing Chourio had off yesterday so he’d have enough juice to get around the bases today.
  15. sveumrules
    If the Brewers thought Black was a possibility for 2B (or even 3B) at the MLB level they’d be giving him occasional reps there in Nashville to keep him sharp. That he hasn’t played 2B for two years, or 3B this year aside from one game where he made two errors, tells me the Brewers don’t consider him a realistic option at those spots currently.
  16. sveumrules
    DSL Dos wins 11-4. Jorge Quinata (1-4, 2B, BBx2), Kevin Ereu (1-5, BB), Jose Anderson (1-3, BBx3, SB), Luis Corobo (2-4, 2B, BB, SB), Frederi Montero (2-4, 2B, BB), Roderick Flores (1-2, BB, HBPx2), Angel Gonzalez (1-4, BB) and Pedro Tovar (2-4, 2B, BB) all reached multiple times. Couple of zeros on the mound belonging to Lenin Mendez (1 IP | 2 BB | 1 K) and Oliver Camilo (1 IP | 2 HBP | 1 K).
  17. sveumrules
    DSL Uno loses 7-5. Jesus Made (2-5, HR, SB) had the big day at the plate while Juan Martinez (2-5, 3B) and Engel Paulino (2-5, 3B) each collected multiple hits including a three bagger. Juan Ortuno also made some noise walking twice and stealing three bags while getting caught stealing once. Only zero for the pitchers was Wande Torres who started the game off with a perfect 1-2-3 inning (one strikeout).
  18. sveumrules
    As of now the roster looks like... Lillard | Jackson Jr. AJ Green | Patty C Khris | Marjon Giannis | Livingston Brook | Bobby Think they'll try to bring Pat Bev back and obviously Thanasis is on the lifetime 15th Man contract. If they use both their draft picks (I'd target a point guard and athletic big) that would bring it up to 14 players. Not sure what exactly all the new CBA provisions are, but pretty sure the Bucks will be limited to filling out the roster with Vet Minimums beyond that. As far as trades, I don't think any of the young guys have any real value beyond a throw in, Patty C doesn't have any real value beyond matching salaries, but both Brook and Bobby could be appealing to the right teams.
  19. sveumrules
    I would guess close to zero. All indications I've seen are that Dame is excited to get to work with a full offseason of prep. Khris is still a playoff killer and Giannis's #1 so I don't think he is going anywhere. Just need to get all three to the playoffs healthy. Last year in 758 minutes on the floor together they were +17.0 points per 100 possessions.
  20. sveumrules
    Awesome news for Dylan O'Rae. Given his slap and dash style, I feel like he is a pretty good test case for how much defense improves at each successive level... ACL (211 PAs) .426 BABIP | 151 wRC+ CAR (107 PAs) .387 BABIP | 141 wRC+ WIS (284 PAs) .341 BABIP | 120 wRC+
  21. sveumrules
    Only three games (14 PAs) but Mitchell is hitting 154/214/231 in Nashville so far. Among 85 OF with at least 900 innings in the field since last year Perkins comes in 5th in DRS (+17) and 6th in OAA (+14). Put together being one of the best defensive outfielders in MLB with a 93 wRC+ and +2.6 runs on the bases and Blake’s 2.5 WAR ranks 51st among 125 outfielders with at least 400 PA since last year.
  22. sveumrules
    Hoskins was hitting 233/340/474 (131 wRC+) before the hamstring. 31% better than average is pretty good.
  23. sveumrules
    Tyler Black hasn’t played 2B since 2022.
  24. sveumrules
    I had this year marked down as rehab/recovery for Ashby, and figured anything he might contribute to the MLB club would be an unexpected surprise. That said, it’d be nice to have more than a handful of decent outings to file in the Encouraging column compared to considerably more entries under the Discouraging header to this point. I guess that he’s stayed healthy enough to take the mound (no matter the results) is a pretty big positive in and of itself. I’ll definitely give Aaron more time to start stringing together effective outings, but to me he’s always looked more like a stiff thrower (with undeniably nasty stuff pre surgery) than he has ever looked like an athlete with feel to pitch, which I think diminishes his chances somewhat or maybe lengthens the timeline coming back from something like this.
  25. sveumrules
    His name is Willy.
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