sveumrules

Below are the thirty players who had the second highest fWAR on their respective teams for 2025. With a 5.1 WAR average for spot #1 and a 0.8 WAR average spot for #9 that would be something like a 0.5/0.6 WAR drop for each spot on the way down, but we know that talent is top heavy and isn't distributed evenly so I thought we'd see a little bigger drop from #1 to #2, maybe even a whole win. Turns out these thirty players totaled 108.7 WAR for an average of 3.6 WAR, a full win and a half down from the #1 spot. The top four second best players on their respective teams all cleared the 5.1 WAR average for the #1 spot with the next four coming up a couple few tenths short. The range has also predictably narrowed from 8.4 WAR top to bottom for the #1 guys, to 5.2 WAR for the #2 guys. Will also include the updated Team Depth Project Standings as a separate post. NUMBER TWO PLAYERS 01. Corbin Carroll ARI (+2.9 WAR) 642 PA | 139 wRC+ | +2.5 DEF | 6.5 WAR [with 16.2 WAR Corbin ranks 9th in MLB since his first full season in 2023 while his +33.6 BSR is a full ten runs ahead of EDLC in second place at +23.5. Among 113 primary OF to get at least 1,500 PA from age 22 to 24 since 1947 Carroll's 16.2 WAR nestles him between guys like Mookie (16.8 WAR), Soto (16.6 WAR), Reggie (16.3 WAR), Raines (15.8 WAR), Yaz (15.5 WAR), and JRod (15.5 WAR)] 02. Juan Soto NYM (+2.2) 715 PA | 156 wRC+ | -17.2 DEF | 5.8 WAR [among 335 players with at least 2,500 PA thru age 26 since 1947 Soto comes in at 18.7 BB% (1st) | 158 wRC+ (6th) | 42.3 WAR (11th). The ten guys ahead of him on the WAR leaderboard are seven HOFers plus Trout, Pujols and A-Rod. The eleven guys below him are six HOFers plus Bonds, Mookie and Andruw Jones who might make it in yet this year] 03. Julio Rodriguez SEA (+2.1) 710 PA | 126 wRC+ | +5.9 DEF | 5.7 WAR [with 21.2 WAR Julio ranks 10th in MLB since his debut in 2022, it also ties Barry Bonds for 12th among 73 primary OF with at least 2,000 PA from age 21 to 24 since 1947. Probably hindered somewhat by playing in the pitcher friendly environs of Seattle with career 120/137 wRC+ splits for home/road and even more extreme 114/154 wRC+ career splits for 1st/2nd half] 04. Maikel Garcia KCR (+2.0) 666 PA | 121 wRC+ | +14.9 DEF | 5.6 WAR [pretty sure next to zero baseball fans would have had Maikel down as a Top Five second best player on a team before the 2025 season, but here we are. After posting a 78 wRC+ and .307 xwOBA over his first 1,164 PA he stepped things up to the tune of a 121 wRC+ and .335 xwOBA last year. Garcia's +29 FRV | +15 DRS has him in contention with Matt Chapman (+16 FRV | +34 DRS) and Ryan McMahon (+21 FRV | +36 DRS) for the second best defensive five after Ke'Bryan Hayes with +37 FRV | +50 DRS over the last three years] 05. Kyle Schwarber PHI (+1.3) 724 PA | 152 wRC+ | -19.5 DEF | 4.9 WAR [after posting an impressive 167 ISO+ over his first three years in Philly, Kyle went off for a 208 ISO+ bettered only by Judge, Ohtani, and Raleigh in his walk year. Has a shot at 500 HR with 340 bombs already banked (including 187 the last four years). Forty three different players have hit at least 160 HR from age 33 onward since 1947, but by rough count at least half were Steroid Era guys so *] 06. Cody Bellinger NYY (+1.3) 656 PA | 125 wRC+ | +5.1 DEF | 4.9 WAR [nice bounce back after a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR in 2024. Fueled pretty heavily by a 152 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium versus a 97 wRC+ on the road and some pretty nutso reverse splits with a 180 wRC+ vs LHP compared to only a 105 wRC+ vs RHP. This after posting 120 home / 123 away and 136 lefty / 115 righty wRC+ splits with the Cubs (1,125 total PA). For the four seasons he was a productive hitter with the Dodgers before that (2,083 total PA) it was 140 away / 133 home and 119 lefty / 146 righty wRC+ splits] 07. Nico Hoerner CHC (+1.2) 649 PA | 109 wRC+ | +13.5 DEF | 4.8 WAR [among 306 players with at least 1,000 PA since 2022 Nico comes in at +19.7 BSR (6th) and +50.6 DEF (11th). Super consistent at the plate between a 102 and 109 wRC+ each of the last five seasons] 08. Alejandro Kirk TOR (+1.1) 506 PA | 116 wRC+ | +24.9 DEF | 4.7 WAR [bounced back with the bat after putting up a 94 wRC+ from 2023-24. Among 34 catchers with at least 2,000 innings since 2022 he comes in at +60 FRV (2nd) | +48 DRS (2nd) | +38.2 framing (5th)] 09. Will Smith LAD (+0.5) 436 PA | 153 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 4.1 WAR [the Fresh Prince's 22.4 WAR since his debut in 2019 is 3rd among all catchers behind JT Realmuto (25.1 WAR) and Cal Raleigh (22.9 WAR). Continued the streak of a Will Smith winning the World Series every year of the 2020's] 10. Corey Seager TEX (+0.4) 445 PA | 138 wRC+ | +5.6 DEF | 4.0 WAR [his career 136 wRC+ is third among all SS since 1947 behind only ARod with a 147 wRC+ during his eight years at the six and Banks with a 139 wRC+ over his seven prime SS seasons] 11. Shea Langeliers ATH (+0.3) 523 PA | 132 wRC+ | 0.0 DEF | 3.9 WAR [traded to the A's by the Braves for Matt Olson. Killed it vs LHP (184 wRC+) and on the road (148 wRC+), had more modest success vs RHP (116 wRC+) and in Sacto (118 wRC+). Among 33 catchers with at least 1,500 innings since 2023 he comes in at -33 DRS (33rd) | -24.9 framing (32nd) | -25 FRV (31st)] 12. Manny Machado SDP (+0.2) 678 PA | 123 wRC+ | -3.5 DEF | 3.8 WAR [batting has been right in line with his career averages the last two years, but after averaging +15.4 DEF per 1,321 PA thru 2023 Manny's managed -7.1 DEF over his last two years and 1,321 PA. Has 8/301 remaining on his contract] 13. Ceddanne Rafaela BOS (+0.2) 587 PA | 91 wRC+ | +19.0 DEF | 3.8 WAR [second really big defense first profile to show up after Masyn Winn at the end of the #1 players list. Comes in at +32 DRS and +28 FRV the last two years among OF so pretty much between him, PCA (+26 DRS | +37 FRV), Daulton Varsho (+38 DRS | +22 FRV), and Jacob Young (+25 DRS | +31 FRV) for best in the business] 14. Matt Chapman SFG (+0.1) 535 PA | 118 wRC+ | +5.9 DEF | 3.7 WAR [entering 2025 Chapman had a career 118 wRC+ and averaged 3.9 WAR per 535 PA] 15. William Contreras MIL (even) 659 PA | 113 wRC+ | +6.5 DEF | 3.6 WAR [down year compared to 2023-24 (129 wRC+ | +27.2 DEF | 11.3 WAR) but I'll give him a pass since catching and hitting MLB pitching with a mangled finger has to suck majorly. William's 15.0 WAR these last three years ties him with Darrell Porter for 12th among 136 backstops with at least 1,000 PA from age 25 to 27 going back to 1947. Eight of the eleven guys ahead of them are HOF or likely to be soon so he's right on the cusp. Perfect time for a career year] 16. Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL (-0.1) 412 PA | 161 wRC+ | -11.2 DEF | 3.5 WAR [2026 is the last guaranteed season of his extension, though the Braves hold club options for 2027/28 so Ronald will likely hit FA heading into his age 31 season. With 31.9 WAR (16th in MLB since his debut in 2018) over 3,666 career PA, he has averaged 5.2 WAR/600 PA. Stay healthy enough to put up 15 or so WAR over the next three years and he might be able to coax another $400M out of somebody, throw another MVP calibre season in there pushing it closer to 20 WAR and could be looking at half a billion.] 17. Steven Kwan CLE (-0.4) 693 PA | 99 wRC+ | +7.6 DEF | 3.2 WAR [so far Steven has been an even year savant (125 and 131 wRC+ in 2022/24) and odd year middler (99 wRC+ in both 2023/25). Base running has fallen off from +10.3 BSR first two years to +0.7 BSR last two years but remains the premier defensive LF with his +68 DRS since 2022 thirty five runs above second place and his +32 FRV twenty three runs ahead of second place] 18. Zach McKinstry DET (-0.4) 511 PA | 114 wRC+ | +0.7 DEF | 3.2 WAR [maybe a big offensive leap year for Zach with a 79 wRC+ | .299 xwOBA over his first 1,207 career PA. Maybe not though with a .333 actual wOBA to go along with a not all that improved .303 xwOBA under the hood. Played five different positions (mostly 3B/SS/corner OF) and that's not even counting his two innings at 1B or 0.1 IP] 19. CJ Abrams WAS (-0.5) 635 PA | 107 wRC+ | -3.3 DEF | 3.1 WAR [excellent base runner with +18.2 BSR ranking 6th in MLB since 2023. Fielding in dispute candidate with -1 DRS at SS since 2023 fair to middling but his -31 FRV is twice as bad as JP Crawford's second worst -15 FRV mark] 20. Yandy Diaz TBR (-0.7) 651 PA | 135 wRC+ | -19.8 DEF | 2.9 WAR [his 140 wRC+ since 2022 is 10th in MLB. Extra impressive with a 52.6 GB% that is 3rd in MLB over that span behind only Yelich (57.1%) and William Contreras (53.0%) among 179 hitters with at least 1,500 PA] 21. Brendan Donovan STL (-0.7) 515 PA | 119 wRC+ | -0.1 DEF | 2.9 WAR [super consistent for batting average fans between .278 and .287 each of his four seasons. Rare Cardinal that is not a Brewers killer, with a career .591 OPS versus Milwaukee. Rumoured offseason trade candidate] 22. Taylor Ward LAA (-0.7) 663 PA | 117 wRC+ | -6.2 DEF | 2.9 WAR [recently traded to the Orioles for oft injured former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez who has 238 IP of 100 ERA- | 91 FIP- in his two MLB seasons] 23. TJ Friedl CIN (-0.7) 685 PA | 109 wRC+ | -3.5 DEF | 2.9 WAR [mad respect for any undrafted free agent that not only makes it to the show, but has also clocked seven wins over his two healthy seasons] 24. Isaac Paredes HOU (-1.1) 438 PA | 128 wRC+ | -2.1 DEF | 2.5 WAR [part of the Cubs package to the Astros along with Cam Smith (1.0 WAR) for Kyle Tucker (4.5 WAR). Houston has two more years of Paredes and five more for Smith] 25. Xavier Edwards MIA (-1.1) 619 PA | 95 wRC+ | +3.8 DEF | 2.5 WAR [the original "slap-AHEM" prospect per Blake Snell. -11 DRS | -12 FRV for his career at SS, but the metrics liked him at 2B to the tune of +12 DRS | +7 FRV last year] 26. Ryan O'Hearn BAL (-1.2) 361 PA | 135 wRC+ | -2.9 DEF | 2.4 WAR [the second best Oriole wasn't any of their highly ranked prospects like Jordan Westburg, or Jackson Holliday, or Adley Rutschman, or Colton Cowser, or Coby Mayo, it was four months of a 31 year old at the bottom of the defensive spectrum who got traded at the deadline] 27. Ryan Jeffers MIN (-1.5) 464 PA | 113 wRC+ | -0.8 DEF | 2.1 WAR [has carved out a nice little niche the last three years with his 117 wRC+ ranking 5th among 23 primary catchers with at least 1,000 PA. But among 33 catchers with at least 1,500 innings over that same stretch he's at -13 DRS (28th) and -22 FRV (30th) behind the plate] 28. Kyle Teel CHW (-1.7) 297 PA | 125 wRC+ | +0.7 DEF | 1.9 WAR [acquired from the Red Sox for Garrett Crochet. 125 wRC+ is nice for a catcher in his MLB debut, but small sample early returns on his defense were less encouraging with -4 DRS | -3 FRV over just 501 innings] 29. Oneil Cruz PIT (-2.0) 544 PA | 86 wRC+ | +0.9 DEF | 1.6 WAR [fell off some at the plate after posting a 108 wRC+ over 1,000 PA from 2022-24. Might have been some bad luck in there though as his xwOBA only went down to .321 compared to .326 for 2022-24. DRS of -16 thinks the OF has been a disaster, FRV at +5 is a little more optimistic] 30. Ryan McMahon COL (-2.3) 401 PA | 87 wRC+ | +5.1 DEF | 1.3 WAR [for his career Ryan McMahon has an 89 wRC+, for four months with the Rockies last year he had an 87 wRC+, for two months as a Yankee he had an 84 wRC+. He is who we thought he was, I'm not sure if he has been let off any kind of hook however]

Once Middleton's health failed him for good (& then Giannis got hurt right before the 2024 playoffs) the Championship window was realistically closed. Last year would have taken a miracle, this year will take a miracle. Some might say the eight seed Heat, five seed Mavs and four seed Pacers making the Finals in B2B2B years took some kind(s) of miracle(s). The Bucks went All In to placate their Superstar, it didn't work out just like the majority of All In pushes don't work out, and now we're experiencing the ugly aftermath. All that really matters at this point is Giannis staying healthy enough to play out the season through its conclusion (whatever that may be) or at least until the trade deadline if the front office tries to cash in before something major befalls him.

No, still way too early. Over the first 13 games when they were 8 W - 5 L and Giannis was healthy Turner was +55 cumulative in On/Off the eleven games he played with Giannis. During this seven game losing streak with limited to no Giannis he has been -46 cumulative in On/Off. Myles was brought in to be a complement to Giannis, not a stand alone player. So far in his minutes on the court with Giannis the Bucks are +8.3 points per 100 possessions. If they can both stay mostly healthy the rest of the season and keep playing at that level when on the court together Turner will have done exactly what he was brought here to do.

Last time Middleton was healthy in 2023-24 the Bucks main lineup of Dame | Beasley | Khris | Giannis | Brook was +15.6 points per 100 possessions. The trio of just Dame / Khris / Giannis was +17.0 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics main lineup in 2023-24 of Holiday | White | Brown | Tatum | Porzingis when they won it all was +11.3 points per possessions. When the Nuggets won it all in 2022-23 their main lineup of Murray | KCP | MPJ | Gordon | Jokic was +12.6 points per 100 possessions. OKC's five man Championship lineup last year with SGA | Williams | Dort | Chet | Hartenstein was +14.4 points per 100 possessions. When Khris, Giannis and Dame were all healthy the team was Championship calibre as intended. The Bucks recent seven game skid has been a schedule loss with a B2B after an In Season Tourney game, Giannis got hurt game, Giannis misses four games, Giannis first game back (probably too early) on the road at NY. Before that they were right where they were supposed to be at 8 W - 5 L even with KPJ down and out after the first nine minutes of the season If Giannis can stay healthy enough to hit the 65 games needed to get his 8th consecutive 1st Team All NBA nod (can only miss ten games rest of the way) they shouldn't have a problem getting back up to the six seed.

You're close. What Adrian Griffin got was the last stretch of healthy Middleton, with him playing 37 of those 43 games he coached. Khris only played 16 of the the 36 games Doc coached after taking over midseason, then 23 of 49 games before being traded at the deadline the following season. If NBA front offices believed Griffin was a true talent level .698 W% guy he would have gotten another HC gig by now.

Putting together the Joey Ortiz Ninth Best Player post got me thinking about talent distribution and different kinds of team construction so I thought I'd keep the series going but flip it for real to the opposite end of the spectrum with a look into thee very best players on every team last year (by FanGraphs version of WAR anyway). In subsequent posts I'll continue down the team leaderboards, figure out the average WAR for each spot, then see where each team made up and lost ground (& how much at each spot). For instance, the thirty players below who each topped their team in WAR totaled 153.7 WAR for an average of 5.1 WAR each. It was a top heavy list with the first eleven players adding up to 78.3 WAR versus 75.4 WAR for the last nineteen. Which makes sense. The top to bottom range on ninth best players was very narrow at 1.8 WAR compared to a considerably wider top to bottom range of 8.4 WAR on this list. The margin in (+/-) after each player's name represents how much above or below that 5.1 WAR average they were. To break things up a little bit I'll make a second post in the thread after the player listing which includes each team's W/L record thru the first and ninth spots plus a margin for each spot as we go along. NUMBER ONE PLAYERS 01. Aaron Judge NYY (+5.0 WAR) 679 PA | 204 wRC+ | -3.8 DEF | 10.1 WAR [last four years Judge is at 204 wRC+ | 37.3 WAR. Trout's best four year run was 170 wRC+ | 37.8 WAR to open his career. Last four years Ohtani is at 38.0 WAR combined hitting/pitching. Bonds was 232 wRC+ | 47.3 WAR. I audibly guffawed] 02. Cal Raleigh SEA (+4.1) 705 PA | 161 wRC+ | +16.3 DEF | 9.1 WAR [entering the season it was pretty tight between Raleigh (13.9 WAR from 2022-24), Adley Rutschman (13.8 WAR from 2022-24), and William Contreras (13.3 WAR from 2022-24) for best backstop in the bigs over the last three years, but Big Dumper plopped down a catcher season for the ages to set himself apart] 03. Bobby Witt Jr. KCR (+2.9) 687 PA | 130 wRC+ | +23.2 DEF | 8.0 WAR [maybe the biggest fielding in dispute guy out there with +35 FRV | -18 DRS swinging his career WAR by five wins from 26.7 at FG to 21.7 at BRef) 04. Shohei Ohtani LAD (+2.4) 727 PA | 172 wRC+ | -17.1 DEF | 7.5 WAR [also chipped in 47 IP with a nice 69 ERA- good for an extra 1.5 rWAR on the side. Crazy thing about Shohei is he hasn't double peaked yet. 2023 was his highest combined WAR with 3.8 rWAR and 6.6 DH WAR, 2022 was just behind but flipped with 6.2 rWAR and 3.6 DH WAR. Could still have one or two double barreled six / seven wins each as a pitcher and DH kind of season(s) still left in the tank] 05. Geraldo Perdomo ARI (+2.0) 720 PA | 138 wRC+ | +9.1 DEF | 7.1 WAR [on a team with Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte it was Perdomo who put up matching seven win seasons per both FG and Bref. Big offensive boost after hitting for an 85 wRC+ over his first 1,420 PA. xwOBA jumped to .355 after a .275 his first four seasons, and his .370 actual wOBA wasn't too out of line with the expected mark] 06. Trea Turner PHI (+1.6) 639 PA | 125 wRC+ | +17.3 DEF | 6.7 WAR [after posting -12 DRS | -11 FRV at SS from 2017-24 Trea had a popup good year with the glove at +2 DRS | +11 FRV in 2025. His +66.9 BSR on the bases since 2016 is almost twenty runs ahead of Jose Ramirez in second place at +47.5] 07. Jose Ramirez CLE (+1.2) 673 PA | 133 wRC+ | +4.6 DEF | 6.3 WAR [2025 was Jose's seventh Top Six finish in MVP voting. One of my favorite player comparisons illustrating the value of defense...Ramirez career is at 6,759 PA | 130 wRC+ | +52.7 BSR | +45.8 DEF | 57.7 WAR and is getting that future HOF label thrown around, and rightfully so. Another guy that debuted the same season is at 7,027 PA | 129 wRC+ | +49.7 BSR | -87.1 DEF | 45.5 WAR and most figure he'll top out at HoVG. As close as it gets in playing time, hitting, and base running but one guy was a positively regarded 3B defender and the other was a corner OF/DH...named Christian Yelich] 08. Francisco Lindor NYM (+1.2) 732 PA | 129 wRC+ | +9.2 DEF | 6.3 WAR [funny Ramirez and Lindor ended up right next to each other again. 2025 was Francisco's seventh Top Ten finish in MVP voting. Jeter was the last HOF SS elected in 2020, Lindor will probably be the next five years after whenever he retires, current contract runs through his age 37 season in 2031] 09. Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP (+1.0) 691 PA | 131 wRC+ | +5.1 DEF | 6.1 WAR [premier defensive RF with his +44 DRS | +25 FRV both tops at the nine in MLB over the last three years.] 10. Jeremy Pena HOU (+0.6) 543 PA | 135 wRC+ | +10.4 DEF | 5.7 WAR [big improvement at the plate versus a 99 wRC+ over his first 1,842 PA. his xwOBA jumped from .308 first three years to .330 so there was an improvement in contact quality, but his actual wOBA was .363 so there was probably some good fortune in there too] 11. Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC (+0.3) 647 PA | 109 wRC+ | +17.4 DEF | 5.4 WAR [my initial read on PCA was something like prime Kiermaier who went 1370 PA | 104 wRC+ | +45.6 DEF | 11.6 WAR from 2015-17. So far, so good there. From here will come down to how much development / upside is left at the plate] 12. George Springer TOR (+0.1) 586 PA | 166 wRC+ | -17.8 DEF | 5.2 WAR [nice bounce back after a 99 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR over his past two years] 13. Byron Buxton MIN (-0.1) 542 PA | 136 wRC+ | -1.4 DEF | 5.0 WAR [going back to 2017 Buxton's 2,948 PA rank 133rd in MLB, his 24.9 WAR over that same stretch ranks 36th. Some of the guys in his immediate vicinity include Tatis Jr. (2,939 PA | 26.5 WAR), Willy Adames (4,296 PA | 25.5 WAR), Kyle Tucker (3,158 PA | 25.4 WAR), and Yordan Alvarez (2,867 PA | 23.7 WAR)] 14. Gunnar Henderson BAL (-0.3) 651 PA | 120 wRC+ | +1.7 DEF | 4.8 WAR [looked a lot more like the 2023 version (122 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) than the 2024 version (154 wRC+ | 7.9 WAR) which probably shouldn't be a surprise since the only SS to put up back to back 150 wRC+ eight win seasons are ARod, Ripken, Banks and Honus] 15. Matt Olson ATL (-0.4) 724 PA | 136 wRC+ | -4.2 DEF | 4.7 WAR [fourth straight season with 162 games played running his consecutive streak to 782 going back to May of 2021. Only needs to play non stop into his age 43 season to catch Cal] 16. Junior Caminero TBR (-0.5) 653 PA | 129 wRC+ | -0.4 DEF | 4.6 WAR [the 45 HR Caminero hit in his age 21 season were the 2nd most in MLB history for a newly legal drinker behind only 1953 inaugural Milwaukee season Eddie Mathews. Junior's HR splits were pretty even with 22 at the spring training park and 23 on the road, but his BABIP splits were pretty wild at .324 in the spring training park versus .197 on the road] 17. Nick Kurtz ATH (-0.5) 489 PA | 170 wRC+ | -12.1 DEF | 4.6 WAR [THE HORROR...THE HORROR...of Sacramento] 18. Brice Turang MIL (-0.7) 659 PA | 124 wRC+ | 0.1 DEF | 4.4 WAR [big step with the bat up from a 77 wRC+ over his first 1,067 PA. wasn't a super big overachiever on the StatCast side with a .346 actual wOBA compared to a .334 xwOBA. also, big time fielding in dispute with 0 FRV | 4.4 WAR at FG versus +7 DRS | 5.6 WAR at BREF. For his career it is +7 FRV | +41 DRS] 19. Elly De La Cruz CIN (-0.8) 699 PA | 109 wRC+ | +2.7 DEF | 4.3 WAR [pretty crazy to see Turang one spot above with a considerably better batting line than ELDC. Not quite as big a gap as Brice, but also a fielding in dispute candidate with +8 FRV | -12 DRS for his career] 20. Wyatt Langford TEX (-1.0) 573 PA | 118 wRC+ | +6.2 DEF | 4.1 WAR [kinda fun comp for Jackson Chourio after two seasons...WAR (7.1 to 6.9), wRC+ (115 each) and base running (+5.9 to +7.0) are about as close as it gets. Jackson hits (110 to 102 AVG+), and slugs (123 to 111 ISO+) better while striking out less (94 to 104 K%+), but Wyatt comes out way ahead on walks (135 to 71 BB%+) and defense (+30 DRS | +14 FRV to +8 both DRS | FRV). Of course Chourio is two years four months younger too] 21. Dillon Dingler DET (-1.0) 469 PA | 109 wRC+ | +18.8 DEF | 4.1 WAR [people talk a lot about Mark Wahlberg in Boogie Nights, but I Heart Huckabees is probably my personal favourite of his] 22. Willy Adames SFG (-1.1) 686 PA | 108 wRC+ | +9.6 DEF | 4.0 WAR [entering 2025 Willy had a career 110 wRC+ and averaged 4.1 WAR per 686 PA] 23. Kyle Stowers MIA (-1.1) 457 PA | 149 wRC+ | -3.7 DEF | 4.0 WAR [breakout age 27 season for the corner OF acquired by the Marlins from BAL for Trevor Rogers. Mashed righties to the tune of a 165 wRC+ and has a lot of red on his StatCast page] 24. Jarren Duran BOS (-1.2) 696 PA | 111 wRC+ | -2.1 DEF | 3.9 WAR [lots to like with a 121 wRC+ | +22.7 BSR | 13.2 WAR over the last three years, but 131 wRC+ at home to 112 wRC+ on the road over those three seasons implies a little Fenway assist, and he's got a pretty big platoon split on top of that with a 138 wRC+ vs RHP but only a 78 wRC+ vs LHP] 25. Masyn Winn STL (-1.6) 537 PA | 91 wRC+ | +20.1 DEF | 3.5 WAR [NL Gold Glover at SS, not all that different than what Joey Ortiz would look like if he hit for a 91 wRC+ instead of a 67 wRC+ (he has an 86 wRC+ for his Brewers career)] 26. Hunter Goodman COL (-1.7) 579 PA | 118 wRC+ | +4.2 DEF | 3.4 WAR [fourth round pick by the Rockies back in 2021 who hit 31 HR (13 at Coors vs 18 on the road) in his first full season as a catcher.] 27. James Wood WAS (-1.8) 689 PA | 127 wRC+ | -12.6 DEF | 3.3 WAR [big time and literally big prospect acquired by the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Has hit lefties pretty well in his career with his 112 wRC+ vs southpaws 10th among 55 lefties to get at least 200 PA against fellow southpaws the last two years. -6 DRS and -11 FRV is a not very promising start to his fielding career] 28. Zach Neto LAA (-2.0) 554 PA | 116 wRC+ | -1.6 DEF | 3.1 WAR [fielding in dispute, -4 FRV | 3.1 WAR at FG versus +13 DRS | 5.1 WAR at BRef in 2025. Career is -5 FRV | +26 DRS] 29. Colson Montgomery CHW (-2.4) 284 PA | 129 wRC+ | +7.0 DEF | 2.7 WAR [nice half season debut for the White Sox first rounder in 2021. Showed big time power with a .290 ISO but also struck out at a 29.2% clip] 30. Spencer Horwitz PIT (-3.4) 411 PA | 119 wRC+ | -5.7 DEF | 1.7 WAR [perfectly cromulent MLB hitter, not an encouraging sign that ownership is making a good faith effort to maximize the Skenes Window when this ends up being your best position player in his first CY season though. The 9th and 10th position players on the Blue Jays leaderboard had 1.8 WAR each]

I’m not an Athletic subscriber, are there any direct quotes from Attanasio, Arnold or anyone else relevant? Or is it more speculation based on intel from unnamed sources?

Good call, obviously Freddy will need to stay healthy one more season, and he’ll be one year older than Cease when he hits FA, but here’s how his body of work compares… 2021-25 Freddy (738 IP | 27th) (ranks among 85 pitchers min. 500 IP) 79 ERA- (12th) | 87 FIP- (24th) | -0.34 ERA/FIP (11th) 132 K%+ (4th) | 106 BB%+ (77th) | 97 HR9+ (40th) 81 AVG+ (1st) | 109 LOB%+ (5th) 18.7 rWAR (8th) | 14.8 fWAR (19th) Cease has the advantage in durability and HR prevention, but Freddy is thee literal hardest guy to get a hit off of and he kills Cease on strand rate too which helps his ERA play well below his FIP compared to Cease whose run prevention doesn’t live up to his peripherals.

Yeah, most likely outcome right now seems like we’ll probably stand pat, make some typical small moves around the edges, and bring back a team that should win ninety some games next year. Maybe sign a lower dollar FA, or deal some of the prospect / young player depth for the ever elusive “big bat”, but that feels like more of a longshot. Contrast that with PHI like you mentioned who could lose Schwarber, Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, etc in FA but just turn around and sign Kyle Tucker & Framber Valdez instead…it’s just two different worlds. I’d love it if the players & owners could figure out a way to bring those worlds closer together (not counting on it by any means though) so until then I’ll keep enjoying the Brewers making the most of their disadvantaged situation. Watching young dudes we’ve developed or acquired come up, make an impact, and grow as players sounds way more fun to me than signing some dude(s) for hundreds of millions and hoping (t)he(y) doesn’t break down.

Here's something sort of interesting I noticed clicking around this morning that kind of speaks to the way Arnold & Associates have gone about assembling the group of players we have going into the offseason... As currently constituted the Brewers are losing five players with positive WAR from last year's team - Jose Quintana (1.8 rWAR), Rhys Hoskins (0.9 WAR), Danny Jansen (0.4 WAR), Eric Haase (0.3 WAR), and Aaron Civale (0.2 rWAR) - adding up to 3.6 WAR or something like three to four wins lost. But there are also thirteen players no longer on the roster who accrued negative WAR last year - Tyler Alexander (-1.0 rWAR), Vinny Capra (-0.8 WAR), Joel Payamps (-0.6 rWAR), Elvin Rodriguez (-0.5 rWAR), Connor Thomas (-0.5 rWAR), Nestor Cortes (-0.3 rWAR), Oliver Dunn (-0.3 WAR), Bruce Zimmermann (-0.2 rWAR), Elvis Peguero (-0.2 rWAR), Bryan Hudson (-0.1 rWAR), Shelby Miller (-0.1 rWAR), Daz Cameron (-0.1 WAR), and Drew Avans (-0.1 WAR) - adding up to negative 4.8 WAR or something like four to five wins gained. Most teams have multiple holes that need to be filled over the offseason due to underperformance during the previous season, or players who are no longer on the team. Meanwhile the Brewers come out one win ahead on the ledger when adding up all their losses.

Over the twenty one seasons that Attanasio has been principal owner the Brewers record of 1,725 W - 1,576 L (.523 W%) is 7th in MLB. For the twenty one seasons before he owned the team from 1984-2004 their 1,548 W - 1,783 L (.465 W%) was 2nd worst among the 26 non-expansion teams. Swinging an organization from one of thee very worst in MLB when he took it over to setting a franchise record in wins this year, with 15 of their top 17 pitchers and 14 of their top 17 position players currently set to return next year, plus a farm system stocked with depth throughout and star power at the top...that's a fair bit more than pretty solid in my estimation. Without Mark A (& the rest of the ownership group) there's a good chance we'd be going on forty plus years of irrelevance now.

Yeah, definitely seems like Toronto had to pay a little Canada Tax to secure Cease's services. His body of work compared to last year's free agent SP and their sticker prices... 2021-25 Cease (884 IP | 7th) (ranks among 85 pitchers min. 500 IP) 90 ERA- (32nd) | 80 FIP- (12th) | +0.35 ERA/FIP (78th) 132 K%+ (3rd) | 117 BB%+ (84th) | 82 HR9+ (16th) 90 AVG+ (9th) | 101 LOB%+ (57th) 15.6 rWAR (19th) | 20.6 fWAR (4th) [7/210 heading into age 30] 2020-24 Burnes (816 IP | 3rd) (ranks among 89 pitchers min. 450 IP) 69 ERA- (5th) | 72 FIP- (2nd) | -0.13 ERA/FIP (32nd) 127 K%+ (8th) | 80 BB%+ (39th) | 72 HR9+ (8th) 84 AVG+ (5th) | 105 LOB%+ (16th) 23.2 rWAR (2nd) | 21.7 fWAR (2nd) [6/210 heading into age 30] 2020-24 Fried (659 IP | 25th) (ranks among 89 pitchers min. 450 IP) 67 ERA- (2nd) | 76 FIP- (8th) | -0.29 ERA/FIP (14th) 103 K%+ (43rd) | 74 BB%+ (29th) | 57 HR9+ (2nd) 93 AVG+ (21st) | 107 LOB%+ (12th) 20.2 rWAR (3rd) | 15.4 fWAR (11th) [8/218 heading into age 31] 2018-24 Snell (878 IP (30th) (ranks among 96 pitchers min. 600 IP) 74 ERA- (10th) | 77 FIP- (10th) | -0.18 ERA/FIP (24th) 142 K%+ (4th) | 126 BB%+ (96th) | 73 HR9+ (10th) 81 AVG+ (2nd) | 110 LOB%+ (7th) 25.5 rWAR (7th) | 21.0 fWAR (12th) [5/182 heading into age 32]

Ethan Dorchies & Griffin Tobias too. Was messing around with the minor league leaderboards at FanGraphs the other day and noticed there were only 31 teenage pitchers to throw at least 70 IP in all of MiLB last year. Seven of them - Melvin Hernandez, Manuel Rodriguez, Dorchies, Dubanewicz, Renz, Meccage, Enderson Mercado - were Brewers.

Adames (15.8 WAR) for JPF (2.1 rWAR) and Rasmussen (12.8 rWAR) is already pretty even from a pure WAR standpoint and the Rays still have Drew under control for next year plus a team option in 2027 so they could still come out ahead yet. But that has definitely been one of the more "win-win" trades since Stearns/Arnold got here. Obviously Yelich (28.0 WAR) for Brinson (-3.5 WAR), Diaz (-2.7 WAR), Harrison (-0.1 WAR) and Yamamoto (0.0 rWAR) was the heist that transformed the MLB club. A deal from almost a decade ago, Peralta (19.3 rWAR) for Lind (-0.1 WAR), is still paying dividends. Contreras (15.0 WAR) and Payamps (2.2 rWAR) for Ruiz (1.0 WAR) is still adding to the right side of the ledger too. Further down the pitching side are guys like Hader (11.1 rWAR), Chase Anderson (10.5 rWAR), Davies (9.0 rWAR), Houser (5.6 rWAR), Knebel (4.2 rWAR), Lauer (3.9 rWAR), Priester (3.6 rWAR), Megill (3.0 rWAR), Patrick (2.6 rWAR), and Hudson (2.6 rWAR) that have all cracked two wins for the Brewers. On the position player side there's Pina (7.6 WAR), Shaw (7.4 WAR), Urias (4.9 WAR), Narvaez (4.6 WAR), Villar (4.6 WAR), Keon (4.4 WAR), Domingo (4.2 WAR), Durbin (2.6 WAR), Caratini (2.6 WAR), Renfroe (2.4 WAR), and Vaughn (1.9 WAR). Add it all up and that's 26 acquired via trade guys cited above who combined for 106 position player WAR (almost half of the 213.4 WAR the Brewers position players managed from 2016-25) and 77.6 rWAR (almost 42% of the 185.5 rWAR the Brewers pitchers managed from 2016-25). And that's without digging further into the margins for guys with less than two wins. And who did they give up for all that? Rasmussen (12.8 rWAR) mentioned above, Grisham (8.3 WAR with SDP), Mauricio Dubon (6.6 career WAR), Reese Olson (5.2 rWAR)...anybody else??

Ben Clemens had an interesting article about productive outs the other day, and I don't think it's necessarily thread-worthy on its own, but it does kind of pertain to overall team building and roster construction to some extent so figured I'd drop it here in this Arnold thread. There wasn't a team leaderboard, but I pulled the relevant Brewers from the linked players spreadsheet and probably not all that surprisingly they did pretty well by the Out Advancement Runs metric in the article…Contreras (+5.29), Turang (+5.22), Durbin (+4.32), Collins (+4.32), Chourio (+4.26), Yelich (+3.95), Frelick (+3.49), Ortiz (+3.32), Perkins (+2.37), Rhys (+1.48), Bauers (+0.08), Monasterio (-0.13), Vaughn (-1.80). That shakes out to something like 36.5 OAR or about three to four extra wins last year just from making outs. As long as we're here, figured I'd update some of the other categories mentioned in the OP to reflect where things stand after Arnold's third season at the helm... 2023-25 PITHCING 282 Wins (2nd) 87 ERA- (1st) 93 AVG+ (1st) 93 WHIP+ (2nd) 105 LOB+ (1st) 69.6 rWAR (1st) +29.90 bullpen WPA (1st) 98 FIP- (11th) 46.9 fWAR (12th) 2023-25 OFFENSE 102 wRC+ (17th) .148 ISO (24th) 2,311 Runs (7th) 9.5 BB% (3rd) 510 SB (2nd) +41.0 BsR (1st) 4,977 PA w/RISP (3rd) 116 wRC+ w/RISP (3rd) 1,663 RBI w/RISP (3rd) 2023-25 DEFENSE -0.45 ERA/FIP differential (1st) +112 FRV (1st) +145 DRS (3rd)

Going down the SS leaderboard I think the two guys that could maybe be available are CJ Abrams (would probably need to be moved to 2B with Turang sliding to SS) and Zach Neto. FanGraphs had both the Nationals and Angels with bottom three pitching staffs last year with only the Rockies saving them from the gutter, and also had their catchers tied for worst in MLB with -1.2 WAR. So let's say Chad Patrick and Craig Yoho for their pitching needs, Jeferson Quero to address the catching situation, and Joey Ortiz to backfill whichever of Abrams/Neto we acquire. Maybe you could get Abrams without including Yoho since CJ isn't really a SS and has an extra year of service time over Neto, but I'd imagine that is ballpark of what it would cost to upgrade over Joey for next year.

Still less than we got for Burnes I'd imagine. Peralta is about $8M cheaper in 2026 than Burnes was in 2024 so that helps somewhat, but Freddy is also a worse pitcher... Corbin 2021-23 (562 IP) 133 K+ | 79 BB+ | 71 HR+ 82 AVG+ | 70 ERA- | 69 FIP- 16.2 rWAR | 15.5 fWAR Freddy 2023-25 (516 IP) 130 K+ | 106 BB+ | 109 HR+ 85 AVG+ | 81 ERA- | 93 FIP- 12.4 rWAR | 8.9 rWAR Both were about the same at getting Ks and allowing hits in their three seasons before FA, but Corbin is way ahead on innings, limiting walks, avoiding home runs, and overall run prevention.

2025 Gray (180 IP) 122 K+ | 61 BB+ | 108 HR+ 104 ERA- | 84 FIP- 2025 Quintana (130 IP) 73 K+ | 108 BB+ | 106 HR+ 95 ERA- | 116 FIP- 50 extra IP and way better K/BB rates. Gray's 5.29 K/BB ratio was 7th of 95 pitchers with at least 130 IP last year, Quintana's 1.78 K/BB ratio was 91st on that same leaderboard. Kind of interesting looking at Gray's ERA/FIP relationship for his career. First ten years his ERA beat his FIP six of ten seasons for an overall line of 3.51 ERA | 3.61 FIP over 1,507 IP. Last two years though he is at a 4.07 ERA | 3.26 FIP, with that +0.81 differential the third largest wrong way gap out of 78 pitchers with at least 250 IP the last two seasons. Could be a two year blip, could be indicative of some kind of underlying issue BOS might have to correct to get Sonny's run prevention more in line with his peripherals.

Looks like Joey is one of 145 players with at least 800 PA playing primarily SS during their age 25-26 seasons since the Brewers came to be in 1970. Here is how Joey did compared to the above linked Omar and some other bad bat good glove guys from days gone by,,, 25-26 Joey Ortiz (1,017 PA) 86 wRC+ | +25.0 DEF | 4.5 WAR 27-?? Joey Ortiz (TBD) 25-26 Jack Wilson (1,308 PA) 87 wRC+ | +28.1 DEF | 5.4 WAR 27-31 Jack Wilson (2,500 PA) 80 wRC+ | +60.8 DEF | 7.7 WAR 25-26 Greg Gagne (987 PA) 88 wRC+ | +34.8 DEF | 5.3 WAR 27-34 Greg Gagne (3,793 PA) 85 wRC+ | +135.9 DEF | 17.5 WAR 25-26 Bucky Dent (955 PA) 76 wRC+ | +45.0 DEF | 5.2 WAR 27-29 Bucky Dent (1,301 PA) 81 wRC+ | +64.8 DEF | 7.7 WAR 25-26 Omar Vizquel (1,157 PA) 82 wRC+ | +44.1 DEF | 5.1 WAR 27-40 Omar Vizquel (8,427 PA) 90 wRC+ | +154.9 DEF | 35.2 WAR 25-26 Ozzie Smith (1,219 PA) 72 wRC+ | +39.7 DEF | 4.7 WAR 27-39 Ozzie Smith (7,799 PA) 98 wRC+ | +291.5 DEF | 58.6 WAR 25-26 Freddie Patek (924 PA) 92 wRC+ | +16.3 DEF | 4.6 WAR 27-32 Freddie Patek (3,386 PA) 77 wRC+ | +85.8 DEF | 13.7 WAR 25-26 Jose Valentin (1,014 PA) 88 wRC+ | +25.0 DEF | 4.6 WAR 27-37 Jose Valentin (4,722 PA) 97 wRC+ | +91.9 DEF | 23.3 WAR 25-26 Dick Schofield (935 PA) 79 wRC+ | +33.1 DEF | 4.5 WAR 27-29 Dick Schofield (1,368 PA) 76 wRC+ | +34.5 DEF | 4.1 WAR 25-26 Royce Clayton (1,088 PA) 77 wRC+ | +39.4 DEF | 4.3 WAR 27-31 Royce Clayton (2,805 PA) 81 wRC+ | +55.7 DEF | 7.9 WAR 25-26 Brandon Crawford (1,026 PA) 87 wRC+ | +23.0 DEF | 4.0 WAR 27-35 Brandon Crawford (4,672 PA) 100 wRC+ | +103.6 DEF | 25.9 WAR 25-26 Bill Russell (907 PA) 78 wRC+ | +30.1 DEF | 3.9 WAR 27-33 Bill Russell (3,972 PA) 84 wRC+ | +85.8 DEF | 15.2 WAR There were a couple bad bat good glove guys in that same range - Frank Duffy (823 PA | 87 wRC+ | +35.7 DEF | 5.2 WAR) and Dale Berra (1,197 PA | 85 wRC+ | +29.0 DEF | 4.8 WAR) - that were pretty much done by age 26, but most of the players similar to Joey went on to have a few more decent years in them at least. Even if Joey can manage something like Jack Wilson, Bucky Dent or Royce Clayton kind of production from age 27 onward that would put him up over a dozen WAR with the Brewers.

The most RBI any one player had batting 9th was Javier Baez with 38, Joey was second with 35 of his RBI coming from the nine hole. The 76 RBI the Brewers had as a team from the 9th spot in the order was 2nd in MLB and their 106 wRC+ from the last spot in the order was tops in MLB. I'm not arguing Joey was clutch by any means - though he did hit considerably better with runners on base at 283/320/361 (92 wRC+) compared to with the bases empty at 183/238/279 (45 wRC+) - but nobody has a clutch hitter in the nine spot of their lineup.

Dang, Christmas came before Thanksgiving this year. Just digging into the individual write ups, but here is the system overview... The Brewers once again have one of the best and deepest systems in baseball, and though it’s a familiar story, it’s worth highlighting how and where this organization is clicking. The obvious place to start is Latin America, where the Brewers have established a best-in-class scouting and decision-making apparatus. From a strategy perspective, they’ve internalized the importance of diversity as well as anyone: This isn’t an org that’s going to burn $5 million on Robert Puason. Instead, they spread their bonus pool around and give themselves several cracks to sign high-impact talent. In an environment where most of the big deals are agreed to with young teenagers who may or may not have finished developing physically, that approach makes a lot of sense. More importantly, they’re signing the right guys. Even though they’re staying out of the deepest end of the signing pool, they have no trouble finding good, twitchy athletes and projectable frames. Even their low-dollar signees tend to have intriguing bat-to-ball skills or a promising pitch characteristic. Every system has a couple of guys on the back of its complex rosters who are just there to fill space, but the Brewers seem to have fewer of them than just about anyone else. One of the things that sets Milwaukee apart is where and how the team spreads its resources. The details are probably worth a piece by itself, but the Brewers are well-known for their attention to detail in the region. Club officials do their homework, and document statistical and demographic information in places where such intel is tough to come by. Their scouts file thorough reports that require a level of familiarity with the talent beyond what is normal for the industry. The organization also prioritizes teaching and upskilling their coaches, which gets the developmental funnel functioning quickly. They don’t leave stones unturned outside the normal hotbeds: You may have noticed that a couple of the names above were tiny-dollar signings from Nicaragua. And of course, they’re doing quite well in Venezuela. With Jackson Chourio in tow and Quero, Lara, Antunez and others on their way, their success in that country looks particularly notable in an era where many teams were marshaling resources elsewhere. This group isn’t perfect — no one is — but they give themselves a ton of opportunities to make good decisions and they’re reaping the rewards. The domestic scouting and development system is also humming along nicely. Milwaukee’s hit rate in turning college relievers with control issues into viable starter candidates is remarkable. We don’t know yet whether Hardin, Wichrowski, DeBerry, or Kuehner can crack a big league rotation, but that there’s a chance even one of them could is a big win for a small-market team. If you’re looking for an Achilles heel, it might be in strength and conditioning. Writing this list, we came across an abnormal number of injuries, particularly upper-body tendon and soft tissue problems among the position player group. And it’s also striking how many of their players, pitchers in particular, are very lean, particularly in their lower halves. Building leg strength is a good way to coax a little extra velo out of a guy, and there are a lot of flier arms with promising control and movement traits here who haven’t taken that step. For teams that reliably develop this sort of thing, this is a good place to sniff around for talent.

Plus Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceno who are both Top 100 catching prospects that reached double AA last year with Liranzo already on the 40 Man.

Brent Rooker was one of 1,338 players to get at least 1,000 PA in the minor leagues between 2017 and 2022. His .275 isolated slugging was the 6th highest on that lengthy leaderboard. His 136 wRC+ came in a tie for 37th to 42nd. Tyler Black is one of 1,333 players to get at least 1,000 PA in the minor leagues from 2021 to 2025. Black's best attribute is a 15.7 BB% that ties him for 53rd to 56th on that leaderboard. His .172 isolated slugging is over 100 points lower than Rooker and lands him in a tie for 435th to 444th place. His 129 wRC+ came in a tie for 95th to 109th. If Black is going to become Rooker he will need to take a massive leap in raw power. As of now he is more of a work the count, hit a single, maybe happen to run into one kind of guy.

Something kinda curious I noticed clicking on Phil Maton's player page was that he has thrown at least 60 IP in each of the last five seasons. A little extra notable because from 2021-24 his performance (94 ERA- | 97 FIP- | -1.56 WPA) wasn't all that impressive with slightly better than average peripherals and run prevention, but giving up runs at the wrong times for negative leverage results. Last year was much better...68 ERA- | 63 FIP- | +0.93 WPA. But back to the consistency angle, Maton is one of only a dozen relievers with at least 300 IP over the last five years. Here's how the others did with regards to hitting 60 IP each season... Emmanuel Clase (4 out of 5, was on pace this year but) Raisel Iglesias (4 out of 5, with a 55 IP) David Bednar (3 out of 5, with 51 / 57 IP the other two) Bryan Abreu (4 out of 5, with 51 IP combined MLB/AAA in 2021) Tanner Scott (3 out of 5, with 54 / 57 IP the other two) Scott Barlow (4 out of 5, with a 55 IP) Tyler Rogers (5 out of 5, actually has 70+ IP all five seasons, Durability King) Carlos Estevez (3 out of 5, with 55 / 57 IP the other two) Chris Stratton (3 out of 5, with 58 / 21 IP the other two) Kyle Finnegan (4 out of 5, with a 57 IP) Brent Suter (5 out of 5, of course the Raptor aces the exam too)

He can definitely go get it in the field...out of 142 OF with at least 1,000 innings since 2023 Wiemer is at +11 DRS (32nd) and +12 FRV (28th). He is also one of only 25 OF to be at least +10 by both measures. But yeah, out of 452 hitters with at least 400 PA since 2023 his 74 wRC+ puts him in a tie for 407th to 410th place. His 41 PA of 215 wRC+ at Jacksonville last year is the kind of electric Joey that keeps orgs dreaming, but on the whole since 2023 he has 711 PA of 80 wRC+ at the minors highest level which ranks 239th of 266 players with at least 700 PAs at AAA over the last three years.