sveumrules

Your comment “Insane if true. Meanwhile Turang is going to get away” is literally thee very first one on the Pratt extension thread.

This year is Turang’s first of four Arby’s seasons as a Super Two so free agent after 2029.

Undrafted free agent Nick Monile is straight out of Brewers central casting looking at his BRef page. Lefty hitting 5'8" and 175 lbs outfielder. In two years of collegiate play at Niagara and North Florida he registered 467 PA of 340/468/454 with 84 BB to 42 K and 21 SB/7 CS. In two years of summer wood bat play he came in at 212 PA of 285/502/326 with 61 BB to 18 K and 20 SB/5 CS.

Ashby started warming up top of four when the score was 4-1, then the Brewers scored two runs in the bottom half to make it 6-1. I’d imagine Murphy brought Ashby in because he was already warmed up anyway. The score ended up 14-2, but Murphy didn’t pitch Ashby in a 14-2 game.

Believe Vegas has typically been a couple two tree wins higher on the Brewers than the projection systems during this competitive run, but I'd imagine the over still would have hit for pretty much every season except 2022 which was the lone year they underperformed their FG preseason projection.

FanGraphs preseason NL Central projections... CHC: 84.8 W | 35.7% Div PIT: 83.5 W | 27.6% Div MIL: 83.0 W | 24.8% Div CIN: 78.4 W | 8.2% Div STL: 75.4 W | 3.7% Div & now after the first three games... MIL: 84.0 W | 31.6% Div CHC: 83.9 W | 31.5% Div PIT: 82.3 W | 22.5% Div CIN: 79.1 W | 10.4% Div STL: 75.4 W | 3.9% Div Of course we know that the Brewers have beaten the FG Depth Chart preseason projected win totals by 87 W for the nine complete full seasons in their database since Stearns/Arnold got here back in 2016 (and by 29 W for the last two seasons managed by Murphy). Between that, and the Brewers winning at least 86 games for each of the last eight full seasons running, those 83/84 W projections above and the 83.5 W currently up at PECOTA feel a lot closer to a floor than a median to me. Should be another fun summer.

Gotta make a trek up to Uecker statue at the top of the terrace level behind home plate. If you get in early and have time before the game The Selig Experience on the LF loge level is a fun trip through the team's history. Not a ton of stuff to really do at the TRats stadium, but if you like walking there is a paved trail just north of the parking lot entrance that goes through some of the surrounding nature areas. If you stroll it in the afternoon before a game sometimes you'll catch a glimpse of some players working out causally while the ground crew preps the field.

Kinda wild how the Brewers didn't have a losing streak longer than three games all of 2024, then come out and lose their first four games of 2025 (by a puny 32 runs at that), before reeling off the most wins in MLB for the season and franchise history too. During the broadcast they mentioned the Brewers didn't have a four plus run comeback until August of last year, now they start 2026 by pulling one off in the third game. Fun stuff. Brewers ended the game 6 for 20 with RISP. For the 2024/25 seasons managed by Murph the Brewers were at 3,427 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (4th) for 1,134 RBI (2nd) with RISP. It's not going to work every time, but put enough pressure on and it will work about 59% of the time (Pat's career W%). Not quite as effective as that one cologne in Anchorman, but still pretty pretty good...like 2nd best in MLB by one win behind the Dodgers since he took over in 2024.

Scrolling through the 2025 schedule page on BRef looks like the Brewers went 18 W - 9 L (.667 W%) last year on Sundays, which means they only went 79 W - 56 L (.585 W%) the other six days of the week.

Try to give the White Sox a freebie with three free runs on shoddy OF defense plus a lineup of injury necessitated platoon subs…win anyway. Murphy now +327 runs in his first 327 games.

Over the 2024/25 seasons the Brewers scored the 4th most runs in MLB (4.89 R/G) while allowing the 2nd fewest runs in MLB (3.94 R/G). On the FanGraphs Projected Standings page they are currently forecast to score the 20th most runs per game rest of season (4.45 R/G), while allowing the 13th fewest runs per game rest of season (4.41 R/G). Over the first 326 games Pat Murphy has managed the Brewers they have an almost perfectly matching +325 run differential, FanGraphs computers think the Brewers will run a +7 run differential over their next 160 games.

From 2022 to 2025 there were 179 players with at least 1,500 PA, here is how Hoerner stacked up over his 2,495 PA (32nd)... 105 wRC+ (105th) | +19.7 BsR (6th) | +49.5 DEF (9th) | 17.4 WAR (19th) 75 BB+ (148th) | 46 K+ (3rd) | 115 AVG+ (15th) | 66 ISO+ (174th) The quote from the Passan tweet about Nico doing everything well - defense, base running, contact skill is kinda funny. He is certainly elite at those three things, but typically power is considered part of "everything" and he is severely lacking there. Even with that paucity of pop he has been so good at the rest of it that he cracks the Top Twenty in WAR over the last four years anyway. The Cubs just signed up for Hoerner's age 30 to 35 seasons, looking at this leaderboard of primary second basemen during the Thirty Team Era from their age 30 to 35 seasons and I'd say these four guys probably represent something like a best case scenario... Roberto Alomar (3,978 PA | 24.3 WAR) 114 wRC+ | +14.8 BsR | +26.0 DEF Marcus Semien (3,453 PA | 23.2 WAR) 112 wRC+ | +13.8 BsR | +47.0 DEF *2026 is his age 35 season Ian Kinsler (4,038 PA | 22.0 WAR) 106 wRC+ | +14.5 BsR | +35.0 DEF Placido Polanco (3,566 PA | 17.9 WAR) 98 wRC+ | 0.0 BsR | +67.8 DEF For $141M through 2032 something like Mark Ellis with 3,034 PA of 93 wRC+ | +12.7 BsR | +57.4 DEF for 14.7 WAR from age 30 to 35 would probably be in the neighborhood of an even money outcome.

Jackson Chourio has had a very nice first two years, becoming the youngest player in MLB history with back-to-back 20-homer, 20-stolen base seasons. His slash lines have been remarkably similar, going .275/.327/.464 as a rookie to .270/.308/.463 in his sophomore season. The statistical similarity between Jackson's first two seasons is pretty wild... HR: 21 to 21 SO: 121 to 121 SB: 22 to 21 CS: 7 to 7 RBI: 79 to 78 HBP: 3 to 3 3B: 4 to 4 1B: 91 to 88 H: 145 to 148 Even the bigger counting stat differences are only like six (29 to 35 doubles), eight (80 to 88 runs), and nine (39 to 30 walks). Hopefully when he comes back from the hand injury he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the year while nearly mirroring something like his 346 PA of 311/370/559 (154 wRC+) from June 2nd to September 15th in 2024, or maybe something along the lines of his run with 253 PA of 309/356/528 (143 wRC+) from May 22nd last year until the hammy took him out for a month at the end of July.

The first season of Kiermaier's four year peak run came during his age 24 season so the ages are pretty close too. No doubt that PCA has more upside between age and power production, but the extreme nature of his plate approach also presents more downside risk than usual. In his breakout year he still had a .287 OBP. We already know that Kiemaier put up his 107 wRC+ over 1,734 PA, what will the next couple two tree thousand PA look like for PCA? At present the entirety of his offense value is coming from that 150 ISO+ that ranked him 22nd out of 215 players with at lest 400 PA last year. But his 52 BB+ (208th) eats into that value considerably. His extreme fly ball (131 FB+ | 7th) and pull rates (130 Pull+ | 6th) also limit the ceiling on his batting average despite top end sprint speed. So what is more likely to continue with the accumulation of time, PCA walking 50% less than league average or isolated slugging 50% above league average? Given the extreme nature of his swing tendencies (59.5 Swing% | 2nd) versus how hard it is to maintain a 150 ISO+ over larger samples (only 11 players with at least 2,000 PA from 2021-25 have a 150 ISO+ or higher), I think that his walk rate will be stickier than his isolated slugging over the course of his contract. His elite base running and defense make him one of thee highest floor players in the league, but his conversely extreme swing rates and batted ball profile put him in that precarious Javy Baez zone at the plate. And hey, Javy managed a single season peak of a 131 wRC+ and a four year run with 1,988 PA of 113 wRC+ before he fell off. But Baez also had a much more evenly distributed batted ball profile in that 131 wRC+ season at 101 LD+ | 105 GB+ | 92 FB+ | 101 Pull+ | 96 Cent+ | 104 Oppo+ allowing him to run a 116 BABIP+ and 114 AVG+ that PCA is unlikely to approach with his current tendencies.

Given his defense, the obvious PCA comp for me coming up was Kevin Kiermaier... 2025 PCA (647 PA | 109 wRC+) 52 BB+ | 109 K+ | 100 AVG+ | 150 ISO+ +6.7 BsR | +17.4 DEF | 5.4 WAR 2014-17 KK (per 647 PA | 107 wRC+) 85 BB+ | 96 K+ | 103 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ +6.3 BsR | +19.0 DEF | 5.4 WAR About as close as it gets overall...two points of wRC+, same WAR, 1.2 run difference on combined base running and defense. PCA has a massive edge in power (but a minuscule walk rate) where Kiermaier got to his value in the box with a more balanced approach.

Fischer has a total of 87 professional PA with the Timber Rattlers. Even recent guys on the super fastest of tracks like Soto (8 games at AA) and Pujols (3 games at AAA) got a little upper minors experience before their MLB debuts,. Maybe he gets a shot later this year if he really pushes the issue at Biloxi/Nashville, but I’d guess both of Jett & Wilken get a crack at 3B before Andrew based on proximity & 40 Man considerations.

League average wOBA the last two years has been about .308 so looking at the splits below the worst offenders vs RHP have been Koenig (.314) who they've still trusted in leverage spots, Hall (.328) who will probably be more of a long man anyway, and Zerpa (.351) who I have to imagine the Brewers have some kind of plan in mind for to bring that number down. Rob Z is small sample zone all the way around, but he'll probably be getting lower leverage innings too. 24-25 Koenig vsL (51.2 IP) .235 wOBA vsR (76.1 IP) .314 wOBA 24-25 Zerpa vsL (50.1 IP) .291 wOBA vsR (68.0 IP) .351 wOBA 24-25 Ashby vsL (34.1 IP) .248 wOBA vsR (60.2 IP) .281 wOBA 24-25 Hall vsL (27.2 IP) .253 wOBA vsR (54.0 IP) .328 wOBA 2025 Anderson vsL (23.1 IP) .299 wOBA vsR (46.1 IP) .281 wOBA 24-25 Rob Z vsL (16.2 IP) .216 wOBA vsR (13.0 IP) .290 wOBA

Perusing Cot’s and came up with around $2.83B for the DR lineup versus only $1.67B for the USA. With Pujols ($346M) managing plus the bench La Republica easily clears $3B. USA lineup would clear $2B with Bregman & Buxton ($450M combined) instead of Henderson & PCA.

Kind of wild that PTA (& Wes Anderson too) has been at it for thirty years now with Hard Eight & Bottle Rocket both dropping as pretty low key indie debuts back in 1996. Would take some kind of magic to knock Magnolia and Punch Drunk Love out of the Top Two spots on my PTA list, but I’d probably slot One Battle in the #3 spot just ahead of There Will Be Blood. Quick check of betting odds looks like Penn is the favorite for supporting actor but I’d give it to Benicio all day.

Old Walt was apparently in the Epstein Files so not sure he is the best example.

Wasn't able to watch. Did the Badgers win, or was it just a massive gag job by Illinois?

For me personally I think the pie in the sky everything works out kind of alignment would be... Pratt at SS. Assuming the glove is in that +5 to +10 kind of range and the bat eventually comes around to like a wRC+ in the 90 to 105 kind of zone. Split Made and Pena between 2B/3B depending who fits where best with the glove and arm. I believe in Fischer's bat the most after Made/Pena so he gets 1B over Burke/Adams/Wilken. Still think Jett is more of a utility guy bouncing around to multiple spots as needed. See where he gets his first opportunity this year, in the outfield with the inevitable Mitchell injury or at 3B if Rengifo doesn't bounce back.

Jesus. Farther up the defensive spectrum, a switch hitter, and has shown better plate discipline. Stats thru the first two years... 24-25 Jesus (741 PA) 298/402/452 (141 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 18.4 K% 21-22 Jackson (628 PA) 290/355/512 (131 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 23.2 K% Made also has a big edge on the bases (75 SB | 17 CS vs 24 SB | 7 CS for Chourio) though the larger bases and pickoff rules make a one to one comparison more difficult there. Only edge Chourio really has thru the same age is power production.

Don't think they'd be working on anything already, but I'd imagine the Brewers will offer some sort of extension if Jesus has the kind of summer this year that sets him up for an MLB debut in 2027. On the one hand it would be pretty hard to turn down $100M as a 19 year old from the DR (or anywhere for that matter), but at the same time I'd certainly never fault an intrepid young man for seeing guys like Soto get $765M or Tucker get a $60M AAV and believing in himself enough to think he can do better than that.

Assuming Jesus follows something like Jackson's ascent it would be 2026 (AA), 2027-28 (get acclimated to MLB and put up like seven wins at age 20-21), 2029 (???). With the team options on Chourio's contract that would put a potential dual prime window for the two around 2029 through 2032 unless Made busts out earlier to move up the front end or signs an extension that would cover Chourio's last team option year in 2033.