sveumrules

He got it in the cheek (of his buttocks)

There were plenty of rumblings and grumblings around each of Brandon Woodruff's last two contracts totaling $37.525M for the 2024 through 2026 seasons. He has now made an nice even twenty starts making him one of 165 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP over the last two years. Some of his results and rankings on that leaderboard... 106.1 IP (161st) | 68 WHIP+ (1st) | 139 FB+ (1st) | 75 AVG+ (3rd) | 210 K/BB+ (3rd) | 136 K+ (11th) | 64 BB+ (18th) | 71 ERA- (18th) | 75 FIP- (21st) | 95 HR+ (67th) | 92.6 MPH average fastball (125th) As far as things like "luck" go, Woodruff's 86 xFIP- (34th) thinks that his literal sky high 53.0% fly ball rate should be yielding more than his current 9.3% HR/FB ratio (20th). On the other hand, all the lasers and stuff over at StatCast think that Woodruff should have an expected ERA of 2.44 which is thee best in all of MLB last two years ahead of Misio (2.52), Shohei (2.63), Wheeler (2.64), Skenes (2.69), Skubal (2.84), and every other SP with at least 100 IP. The Brewers have gone 15 W - 5 L for an easy to compute .750 W% in his twenty starts. Has Woodruff done enough to earn his paycheck, or much like the Brewers as a whole is that wholly dependent on whatever happens or doesn't in October?

Not sure why you would want to exclude his results from last year with the Brewers since that is when his turnaround began? The Brewers will certainly be taking that information into consideration when deciding whether to tender him or not, as will other teams if he ends up non-tendered. White Sox 46.4 HardHit% | 9.3 Barrel% | 105.4 EV90 .322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA Brewers 45.4 HardHit% | 8.2 Barrel% | 104.9 EV90 .369 xwOBA | .386 wOBA So if Vaughn's HH%, B%, and EV90 have all declined how have his xwOBA and wOBA increased so much? Because we also have to consider things like his batted ball distribution in terms of both type and directionality. White Sox (98 BABIP+) 92 LD+ | 103 GB+ | 101 FB+ 90 Pull+ | 104 Cent+ | 111 Oppo+ Brewers (117 BABIP+) 114 LD+ | 98 GB+ | 95 FB+ 89 Pull+ | 115 Cent+ | 97 Oppo+ I'm not saying Vaughn is a true talent 117 BABIP+ kind of guy, but over the last two years league average on line drives is a .701 BA and 353 wRC+ so cranking his raw line drive rate from 18.2% with the White Sox (219th of 251 hitters min. 1500 PA from 2021-25) up to 22.4% with the Brewers (39th of 299 hitters min. 400 PA from 2025-26) will naturally lead to across the board increases. His lowly pull rate has remained about the same, but he's traded a bunch of opposite field contact for up the middle contact. This again should naturally lead to an increase in production since up the middle contact (.312 BA | 106 wRC+ last two years) gets slightly better results league wide than opposite field contact (.302 BA | 100 wRC+ last two years). Of course Vaughn is due for regression, his 149 wRC+ with the Brewers is tied with Junior Caminero for 9th in MLB since July 7th of last year. But he has also fundamentally changed who he is as a hitter in many ways since he was a White Sox so whatever regression he does incur should still leave him well above his results with the South Siders. His current .369 xwOBA since joining the Brewers would shake out to around a 136 wRC+ or so over that stretch right between Turang (.366 wOBA | 134 wRC+) and Bauers (.371 wOBA | 137 wRC+).

Some guys from 2021 to 2025 (min. 1,500 PA) sorted by K%+ that were still able to top a 100 wRC+... Oneil Cruz (1836 PA) 97 AVG+ | 124 ISO+ | 104 wRC+ 115 BB+ | 145 K+ Eugenio Suarez (3424 PA) 93 AVG+ | 138 ISO+ | 110 wRC+ 108 BB+ | 134 K+ Elly De La Cruz (2120 PA) 104 AVG+ | 122 ISO+ | 109 wRC+ 109 BB+ | 133 K+ Giancarlo Stanton (2282 PA) 97 AVG+ | 155 ISO+ | 121 wRC+ 120 BB+ | 133 K+ Kyle Schwarber (3651 PA) 95 AVG+ | 179 ISO+ | 137 wRC+ 174 BB+ | 131 K+ Tyler O'Neill (2027 PA) 98 AVG+ | 134 ISO+ | 115 wRC+ 114 BB+ | 130 K+ Cal Raleigh (2707 PA) 91 AVG+ | 156 ISO+ | 120 wRC+ 132 BB+ | 126 K+ Brent Rooker (2291 PA) 104 AVG+ | 143 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ 110 BB+ | 125 K+ Some of the other 3TO guys mentioned upthread at peak... 2008-10 Branyan (1085 PA) 93 AVG+ | 174 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ 130 BB+ | 171 K+ 2012-15 Chris Davis (2430 PA) 100 AVG+ | 184 ISO+ | 136 wRC+ 132 BB+ | 157 K+ 2017-21 Joey Gallo (2248 PA) 83 AVG+ | 167 ISO+ | 117 wRC+ 179 BB+ | 162 K+ 2026 Murakami (246 PA) 99 AVG+ | 206 ISO+ | 156 wRC+ 197 BB+ | 146 K+

Vaughn White Sox (2451 PA) 248/303/407 (97 wRC+) 6.2 BB% | 20.4 K% .322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA Vaughn Brewers (402 PA) 319/394/506 (150 wRC+) 10.4 BB% | 12.9 K% .369 xwOBA | .387 wOBA

Boeve has played LF the most this year (27 starts) followed by 1B (17 starts), 3B (15 starts) and DH (13 starts). Looking like more of a corner utility profile than an everyday 3B.

Hasn’t made its way to the leaderboards yet, but the individual FanGraphs player pages have ERA- and FIP- for the pitchers to help contextualize the drastic changes in offensive environments. Just for one example, Southern League has jumped over a full run per game from 4.01 in 2025 to 5.10 so far this year. Last year Jaron DeBerry had a 3.62 ERA | 3.72 FIP at Biloxi that shook out to a 96 ERA- | 97 FIP-. This year DeBerry is back in Biloxi with a 4.22 ERA | 5.08 FIP that has shaken out to an 85 ERA- | 100 FIP-.

Pyrite Pirates was right there for them

The Brewers power numbers have been trending up since Chourio and Vaughn returned to the lineup... 2023 (.146 ISO | 28th) 2024 (.155 ISO | 18th) 2025 (.145 ISO | 25th) thru May 3rd (.115 ISO | 29th) since May 4th (.160 ISO | 15th) Last year's Blue Jays had a .162 ISO that ranked 12th in MLB. History so far is of increasingly less relevance as the Brewers demonstrably improve season over season. This is the 8th full season of the Brewers postseason run going back to 2018. The Dodgers won 33 more games than the second best team in MLB from 2013 to 2019, they won zero World Series over those seven years. They broke through in the 2020 weirdened season, then needed four more full seasons to finally win a World Series in their 11th try after a 162 game season. The OG Daddy Warbucks Yankees have been to (& lost) one World Series in the last 15 full seasons since their 2009 WS win. When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else a decade plus to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series after a full season, the Brewers being in the 8th year of their current window is another sign to me that despite all their recent success they are still just getting started.

The Brewers low point of the season so far was on April 25th. After losing to the Pirates in extra innings their record dropped to 13 W - 13 L. Since then, their 40 W - 18 L record is the best in MLB. The Brewers low point of last season was on May 17th. After getting shutout by the Twins they were all the way down at 21 W - 25 L. Since then, over their last 200 games, their 129 W - 71 L record is the best in MLB. But we don't even need all that. Even with their worst somewhat recent-ish stretch of play included, going all the way back to the start of the 2025 season (246 total games), their 150 W - 96 L record is the best in MLB. Heck, if we want to stretch it out even further, and roll the clock all the way back to August 6th of 2024 the Brewers 181 W - 116 L record is the best in MLB (by 1/2 game over the Dodgers) over their last 297 games. Below are how some of their category results and rankings have changed over each of those stretches. I'm by no means saying the Brewers results over their last 58 games are indicative of their elusive True Talent Level as a team (few teams in MLB history have been .690 W% good for a full season) but I think it's pretty clear from these numbers in varying degrees of micro, plus the year over year improvement going all the way back to 2022 in the macro, (not to mention one of thee most highly regarded minor league systems in MLB), that even with all the recent success the arrow is somehow still pointing upward. RS/G 297 (5.03 | 4th) 246 (5.04 | 3rd) 200 (5.24 | 1st) 58 (5.29 | 1st) wRC+ 297 (106 | 7th) 246 (106 | 6th) 200 (111 | 2nd) 58 (112 | 3rd) Batting Average 297 (.254 | 3rd) 246 (.257 | 2nd) 200 (.263 | 1st) 58 (.265 | 1st) On Base Percentage 297 (.331 | 2nd) 246 (.335 | 1st) 200 (.341 | 1st) 58 (.343 | 1st) Isolated Slugging 297 (.149 | 20th) 246 (.144 | 26th) 200 (.150 | 24th) 58 (.153 | 20th) BB% 297 (9.7 | 3rd) 246 (9.7 | 4th) 200 (9.8 | 2nd) 58 (10.2 | 3rd) K% 297 (21.4 | 10th) 246 (20.6 | 5th) 200 (20.3 | 3rd) 58 (20.8 | 9th) GroundBall% 297 (45.4 | 1st) 246 (45.8 | 1st) 200 (45.6 | 1st) 58 (47.0 | 1st) xwOBA 297 (.315 | 17th) 246 (.316 | 14th) 200 (.321 | 8th) 58 (.325 | 6th) Actual wOBA 297 (.322 | 6th) 246 (.323 | 5th) 200 (.331 | t-1st) 58 (.335 | 3rd) RA/G 297 (3.82 | 1st) 246 (3.82 | 1st) 200 (3.68 | 1st) 58 (3.31 | 1st) ERA 297 (3.49 | 1st) 246 (3.51 | 1st) 200 (3.36 | 1st) 58 (3.10 | 1st) xERA 297 (3.66 | 1st) 246 (3.67 | 2nd) 200 (3.51 | 1st) 58 (3.07 | 1st) FIP 297 (3.78 | 1st) 246 (3.78 | 2nd) 200 (3.64 | 1st) 58 (3.38 | 1st) K% 297 (24.8 | 1st) 246 (24.7 | t-1st) 200 (25.6 | 1st) 58 (28.2 | 1st) K/BB Ratio 297 (2.84 | 7th) 246 (2.78 | 8th) 200 (2.96 | 5th) 58 (3.23 | 4th) HR/9 297 (1.04 | 5th) 246 (1.02 | 4th) 200 (0.99 | 2nd) 58 (0.96 | 3rd) Batting Average 297 (.224 | 1st) 246 (.224 | 1st) 200 (.220 | 1st) 58 (.206 | 1st) WHIP 297 (1.20 | t-2nd) 246 (1.21 | 5th) 200 (1.18 | t-1st) 58 (1.11 | 1st) LOB% 297 (75.5 | 1st) 246 (75.4 | 1st) 200 (76.1 | 1st) 58 (78.2 | 1st) HardHit% 297 (38.2 | 2nd) 246 (37.9 | 1st) 200 (37.4 | 1st) 58 (34.3 | 1st) Barrel% 297 (7.4 | 3rd) 246 (7.3 | t-1st) 200 (7.2 | 1st) 58 (5.9 | 1st) Run Differential Per Game 297 (+1.21 | 1st) 246 (+1.22 | 1st) 200 (+1.56 | 1st) 58 (+1.98 | 1st)

Hasn't been very good lately. 436 PA of 84 wRC+ last year, 310 PA of 96 wRC+ so far this year with a career high strikeout rate. Defense is still good at +8 DRS | + 3 FRV last two years, but nothing like prime Arenado that averaged around +16 DRS | +11 FRV per season over the first decade of his career. That'd be an upgrade over our current 3B production on the year with a 63 wRC+ (28th) and 0.1 WAR (25th) so far, but he's also due $15M next year which the Brewers probably wouldn't want to add to their books with guys like Made and Fischer in the wings. DBacks are also hovering around 20% Playoff Odds at both of FanGraphs and PECOTA so still kind of straddling that buy/sell line depending how things play out for them and teams like MIA, STL, PIT, and SDP over the next month.

Looking through the MLBTR Top 35 Deadline Trade Candidates the only guys I am really interested in (that I'd also consider good bets to actually be traded) are Aroldis Chapman and Joe Ryan. I guess maybe Antonio Senzatela COL (44 IP of 65 ERA- | 76 FIP-) for bullpen depth? Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, and Zach Neto could all be varying degrees of interesting...but the Angels probably aren't dealing any of them. Looking at relievers not on the MLBTR list with good stats so far this year on likely sellers some other possible candidates could maybe be... Huascar Brazoban NYM (34 IP of 32 ERA- | 59 FIP-) Luke Weaver NYM (35 IP of 51 ERA- | 59 FIP-) Brennan Bernardino COL (31 IP of 61 ERA- | 66 FIP-) Garrett Whitlock BOS (27 IP of 60 ERA- | 68 FIP-) Daniel Lynch IV KCR (34 IP of 61 ERA- | 78 FIP-)

But did you tell the Spouse about the spray paint pants (& the moustache) ??

Pretty sure they had some hitter friendly affiliates in the 1980's too. I remember thinking Billy Jo Robidoux (.342 with 23 HR and 132 RBI) and Joey Meyer (.304 with 37 HR and 123 RBI) were bound for stardom when I saw their 1985 El Paso stats on the back of their baseball cards, to say nothing of their visages on the front.

My whole thought process was… - hey, the Brewers won another game where Perkins started - I wonder what their record is when Perkins starts? (looks it up) - hmm, that’s higher than I expected given all the consternation whenever Perkins starts

Dropping from the 2nd best W% in MLB down to (gasp) only the 5th best W% in MLB when Perkins starts is a much smaller drop off than the over the top doom & gloom IGT reactions would indicate any time he is penciled into the lineup.

Limping along with the second best winning percentage and run differential in MLB. Just competitively enough to stay afloat for a 5.5 game division lead and a 100 to 101 win pace.

Last year the Brewers went 46 W - 38 L against teams .500 or better for a .548 W%, against teams under .500 they went 51 W -27 L for a .654 W%. So far this year they are 29 W - 18 L against teams .500 or better for a .617 W%, against teams under .500 they are 22 W - 13 L for a .629 W%. This year's model has played much better so far against the other good teams than last year's model did. Probably because this team has just been across the board better in the macro... Runs Scored per Game 2025: 4.98 2026: 5.16 Runs Allowed per Game 2025: 3.91 2026: 3.67 Run Differential per Game 2025: +1.07 2026: +1.49 The 2025 pitchers were getting a lot more help from their defense with a 3.59 ERA | 3.91 FIP while this year's staff has more dominant peripherals at a 3.41 ERA | 3.54 FIP. 2025 offense posted a 107 wRC+ full season, this year's model is only at a 105 wRC+ so far but with pretty drastic splits between thru May 3rd with no Chourio/Vaughn (95 wRC+) versus putting up a 112 wRC+ since they returned to the lineup.

If I counted right the Brewers have faced 32 RHP since Vaughn came back from injury. He has started 15 of those 32 games, or 46.9%. The Brewers have gone 8 W - 7 L in those 15 games, and 13 W - 4 L in the 17 games Vaughn didn't start against RHP since his return. Vaughn as PH this year 11 PA of 333/455/556 (183 wRC+) Frelick as PH this year 8 PA of 429/500/429 (172 wRC+) Vaughn vs RHP 2026 82 PA of 260/329/356 (94 wRC+) Frelick vs RHP 2026 203 PA of 264/337/356 (96 wRC+) Vaughn vs RHP 2025-26 250 PA of 261/320/423 (106 wRC+) Frelick vs RHP 2025-26 623 PA of 277/345/408 (112 wRC+)

Today was Blake Perkins 23rd start of the season. The Brewers have gone 13 W - 10 L (.565 W%) in those 23 games. The Rays are currently 5th in MLB with a .571 W%.

Here's my best attempt at trust tiers... Guys Who Should Get MVP Votes Turang, Contreras, Chourio Solid Starters Bauers, Vaughn, Mitchell Solid Starters Having Down Years Yelich, Frelick (Sal picking it up this month) Perfectly Cromulent Backup Catcher Sanchez Left Side of the Infield Pratt, Hamilton, Ortiz 13th Man Perkins [barring injury, at least eleven of those thirteen probably aren't going anywhere regardless of how much any of us trusts them or not. Would be nice to find one reliable bat for the Left Side of the Infield mix, but not sure if that guy will be on the trade market this year.] Playoff Rotation Misio, Harrison, Woodruff, Henderson High Leverage Relievers Megill, Uribe, Ashby Other Options Drohan, Sproat, Koenig, Patrick, Anderson, Hall [right now I would say my personal trust line ends at Koenig, though Patrick (182 IP of 88 ERA- | 90 FIP-), Anderson (102 IP of 80 ERA- | 99 FIP-) and Hall (112 IP of 89 ERA- | 100 FIP-) wouldn't necessarily be the worst last three guys in the bullpen given their run prevention history with the Brewers (even if the peripherals have been less impressive). Personally I'd expect them to add a couple two tree arms to the mix at the deadline (Tyson Hardin is the only other guy currently in the org that I think has a chance to be impactful rest of season) with hopefully at least one acquisition that can confidently slot into the High Leverage group.]

From 2017 to 2021 BRef has Gallo down for 2,248 PA of 117 OPS+ for 14.6 WAR despite his 36% K rate. Gallo also got a WAR boost as the rare 3TO guy with good soft skills at +10 on the bases and +34 in the field over that peak run. If Fischer ends up at 1B with the other infield talent in the system he’ll probably need to hit for closer to a 125 OPS+ to get similar value as Gallo.

With some of the DSL teens coming up on 100 PA now for the season, thought it might be a good time to transcribe some stats for some of the more interesting prospects (plus one 40 Man post-prospect) currently outside of the BF Top 20 throughout the system. Order is more or less descending by level / playing time... HITTERS Eddys Leonard (246 PA) 291/377/512 (132 wRC+) 9.8 BB% | 17.5 K% | 8/4 SB Akil Baddoo (97 PA) 275/392/600 (153 wRC+) 16.5 BB% | 28.9 K% | 3/1 SB Mike Boeve (282 PA) 279/369/398 (109 wRC+) 12.1 BB% | 19.9 K% | 9/1 SB Dylan O'Rae (273 PA) 314/431/414 (135 wRC+) 15.4 BB% | 16.5 K% | 36/8 SB Matthew Wood (212 PA) 224/393/466 (131 wRC+) 20.3 BB% | 11.3 K% | 17.0 CS% Darrien Miller (167 PA) 252/431/512 (153 wRC+) 16.8 BB% | 21.6 K% | 11.3 CS% Damon Keith (133 PA) 305/383/542 (144 wRC+) 8.3 BB% | 29.3 K% | 7/1 SB Josiah Ragsdale (259 PA) 322/440/512 (146 wRC+) 16.6 BB% | 24.7 K% | 24/2 SB Eric Bitonti (255 PA) 269/398/490 (126 wRC+) 17.3 BB% | 34.9 K% | 15/0 SB Handelfry Encarnacion (333 PA) 245/384/416 (117 wRC+) 17.1 BB% | 19.5 K% | 16/9 SB Brailyn Antunez (183 PA) 288/388/545 (120 wRC+) 9.3 BB% | 33.3 K% | 10/3 SB Kenny Fenelon (160 PA) 270/425/516 (130 wRC+) 19.4 BB% | 36.3 K% | 19/7 SB Juan Martinez (148 PA) 367/486/608 (166 wRC+) 16.9 BB% | 11.5 K% | 20/3 SB Gerlyn Payano (80 PA) 226/463/472 (134 wRC+) 27.5 BB% | 15.0 K% | 7/2 SB Ricki Moneys (95 PA) 269/389/526 (110 wRC+) 15.8 BB% | 16.8 K% | 10/1 SB Angeni Fernandez (91 PA) 319/462/403 (123 wRC+) 18.7 BB% | 13.2 K% | 8/5 SB Diego Frontado (79 PA) 298/474/579 (153 wRC+) 21.5 BB% | 13.9 K% | 11/2 SB PITCHERS Stiven Cruz (36 IP) 60 ERA- | 68 FIP- 30.0 K% | 5.7 BB% Edwin Jimenez (22 IP) 41 ERA- | 66 FIP- 25.3 K% | 3.6 BB% Cameron Wagoner (19 IP) 47 ERA- | 90 FIP- 32.9 K% | 6.3 BB% Braylon Owens (58 IP) 71 ERA- | 74 FIP- 31.5 K% | 10.0 BB% Jayden Dubanewicz (35 IP) 54 ERA- | 70 FIP- 28.1 K% | 8.9 BB% Josh Knoth (27 IP) 52 ERA- | 70 FIP- 25.7 K% | 10.6 BB% Jose Meneses (37 IP) 41 ERA- | 57 FIP- 33.6 K% | 8.9 BB% Anfernny Reyes (22 IP) 43 ERA- | 60 FIP- 37.3 K% | 8.4 BB% ...could have easily typed out another five to ten intriguing performers at the lower levels, but that's 25 and had to draw the line somewhere. Most honorable of mentions to 17yo Santiago Martinez who put up 11.2 IP of 12 ERA- | 36 FIP- in the DSL before leaving his third start early with an apparent injury. Who else did I miss? The three guys I voted for last time that didn't make the Top 20 were O'Rae, Knoth, and Juan Martinez. Putting this all together think the next three or four on the cusp would probably be Frontado, Dubanewicz, Owens, and Ragsdale for me.

Right, but they aren't 1st in PA and 1st in IP, they are 6th and 11th, so they aren't putting up their WAR totals on quantity of opportunity alone. From 2017-22 when the Brewers won at least 86 games every full season their Age 28 and under position players were 15th in WAR (& 26th in PA) while their Age 28 and under pitchers were 2nd in rWAR (& 15th in IP). The 2024-present Age 28 and under position players put up more WAR in 403 team games than the 2017-22 Age 28 and under position players did over 871 team games. That's a pretty objective measure of how much the Brewers have improved at identifying, acquiring and developing young hitting talent recently compared to earlier iterations (while the pitching has been humming along for a decade now). With the current Brewers showing a demonstrated ability to hit with more frequency on their evaluations of young players, the overall historical miss rate on prospects from 7 to 10 years ago is less relevant to them than it is to other franchises who haven't been able to get those same kind of top end results.

Of course the hit rate for Top 100 prospects is less than 100%, that means if a team can better identify, acquire, and develop those players (plus the myriad players who never get recognized on those lists) they will probably have a pretty serious leg up on their competition. Since Matt Arnold took over in 2023, the Brewers have gotten an MLB best 69.3 WAR from position players in their Age 28 and under seasons (second place is the Cubs down at 55.3 WAR). Some of the Brewers individual category rankings on that leaderboard are... 15,530 PA (6th) | 1,961 R (1st) | +113.3 DEF (1st) | 9.4 BB% (2nd) | 45.1 GB% (t-2nd) | 469 SB (3rd) | +36.5 BsR (3rd) | .326 OBP (4th) | .303 BABIP (6th) | 101 wRC+ (13th) | .140 ISO (28th) The Brewers have also demonstrated they can identify, acquire, and develop these young players via different means as well with guys like Contreras & Adames acquired via trade as MLB players with some degree of success but also some lingering questions. Then there are Chourio, Turang, Frelick, and Mitchell (and now Pratt) who have been homegrown. Guys like Ortiz & Durbin were acquired in maligned star player trades, Perkins & Collins were acquired for essentially free, Vaughn was a change of scenery candidate & though he doesn't meet the Age 28 cutoff Bauers is another recent success story. The pitchers in their Age 28 and under seasons haven't been quite as good going back to Arnold taking over in 2023, their 48.5 rWAR is only second (behind CLE with 60.6 rWAR). Some of the Brewers individual category rankings on that leaderboard are... 2827 IP (11th) | 85 ERA- (1st) | 112 K+ (1st) | 92 AVG+ (1st) | 106 LOB+ (1st) | +22.58 RE24 (1st) | +23.13 WPA (3rd) | 3.85 xERA (3rd) | 94 WHIP+ (4th) | 94 FIP- (4th) In addition to having an MLB roster rife with young talent, the Brewers have a farm system that is generally regarded as among the best in MLB currently. What all that tells me, is that whatever the leaguewide hit rate is for prospects (Top 100 or otherwise), the Brewers are more or less setting the top end of the curve.