sveumrules

Every season has its share of ups and downs, so thought it might be interesting to track the roller coaster ride that got the Brewers here to today... First Ten Games 8 W - 2 L (.800 W%) 6.80 RS/G | 3.80 RA/G 128 wRC+ | 87 ERA- | 100 FIP- Next Sixteen Games 5 W - 11 L (.313 W%) 3.69 RS/G | 4.69 RA/G 65 wRC+ | 99 ERA- | 84 FIP- Next Thirty Eight Games 28 W - 10 L (.737 W%) 5.71 RS/G | 3.29 RA/G 111 wRC+ | 72 ERA- | 74 FIP- Next Ten Games 4 W - 6 L (.400 W%) 4.40 RS/G | 3.60 RA/G 109 wRC+ | 89 ERA- | 101 FIP- Last Nineteen Games 14 W - 5 L (.737 W%) 4.63 RS/G | 3.42 RA/G 105 wRC+ | 69 ERA- | 84 FIP- A less granular approach might be just to split the dang thing in uneven halves from when they bottomed out at 13 W - 13 L after their first 26 games compared to what they've done in the 67 games since... First Twenty Six 13 W - 13 L (.500 W%) 4.88 RS/G | 4.35 RA/G 90 wRC+ | 94 ERA- | 90 FIP- Last Sixty Seven 46 W - 21 L (.687 W%) 5.21 RS/G | 3.37 RA/G 109 wRC+ | 73 ERA- | 81 FIP- & just for fun here is how the Brewers most recent 67 games of this year stack up with their final 116 games of last season after starting out 21 W - 25 L... Last 116 of 2025 76 W - 40 L (.655 W%) 5.28 RS/G | 3.72 RA/G 115 wRC+ | 80 ERA- | 90 FIP- If the Brewers maintain the .687 W% of their last 67 games over their remaining 69 games they would end up with around 106 Wins. If the Brewers maintain their seasonal .634 W% over their remaining 69 games they would end up with around 102 Wins. To have their first 100 Win season if franchise history they would need to go 41 W - 28 L (.594 W%). To set a new franchise record with 98 Wins they would need to go 39 W - 30 L (.565 W%). Since Arnold took over the front office in 2023 the Brewers have a .589 W% over 579 games, since Murphy took over the manager's seat in 2024 the Brewers have a .597 W% over 417 games.

The mutual option will likely be declined, but Ryan has one year of club control remaining via Arby’s in 2027 so it wouldn’t be a rental.

2023 Brewers 4.49 R/G | 4.24 BaseRuns 93 wRC+ | .309 wOBA 2024 Brewers 4.80 R/G | 4.77 BaseRuns 105 wRC+ | .319 wOBA 2025 Brewers 4.98 R/G | 4.77 BaseRuns 107 wRC+ | .322 wOBA 2026 Brewers 5.11 R/G | 4.84 BaseRuns 104 wRC+ | .324 wOBA (season) 109 wRC+ | .332 wOBA (since May 4th) FanGraphs Depth Charts is projecting them to score 4.57 runs per game rest of season. I would say that is more a case of them being slow to recognize this is the Brewers 3rd straight year of pretty big improvements over 2023 than it is confirmation they have a middle of the pack offense. Especially considering these are the same projections that have sold the Brewers short by 87 wins over the last nine full seasons (& are on pace for another double digit underage this year). Since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers have scored 4.94 R/G (4th) with a 105 wRC+ (7th) over 417 games, I would say that is a better representation of their elusive "true talent level" as an offense than the projections with a proven history of underselling the Brewers to a large extent. Projections are also context neutral so they aren't giving the Brewers any credit for their 4,486 PA with RISP being the most in MLB since Murphy took over with a 117 wRC+ (3rd) that has produced 1,600 runs (1st) and a +184.71 RE24 (3rd) over that stretch. Turang has a 124 wRC+ over his last 1,056 PA, FGDC has him at 106 rest of season. Vaughn has a 145 wRC+ over 417 PA with MIL, FGDC has him at 107 rest of season. Bauers has a 144 wRC+ over his last 382 PA, FGDC has him at 115 rest of season. Chourio has a 128 wRC+ over his last 564 PA, FGDC has him at 116 rest of season. Mitchell has a 120 wRC+ over 732 career PA, FGDC has him at 106 rest of season. I'm not saying none of these guys will regress, but the penalties seem especially harsh (to me anyway) considering Chourio should still be improving as a 22yo, Turang's demonstrated improvements since debuting, plus Mitchell and Vaughn still being in what has typically been considered the prime window at 27/28yo.

First 57 Games (238 PA) 245/336/341 (86 wRC+) 11.3 BB% | 20.2 K% Last 20 Games (82 PA) 443/500/671 (203 wRC+) 12.2 BB% | 11.0 K% ...and that was before tonight's 2 for 3 with two walks.

DeBerry (Game Score: 77) 7 IP | 1 ER | 2 H | 3 BB | 11 K Torres (Game Score: 83) 7 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 0 BB | 8 K Game Score Calculator at BRef says WANDE

Looking at Cot's believe the largest contract for a pitcher with less than one year service time is still Chris Archer all the way back in 2014 at 6/$25.5M plus two options totaling $20M. Ashby's 5/$20.5M plus two options totaling $22M signed in 2022 is the second largest for a pitcher under one year of service time according to Cot's. If you get into one plus years of service time then it gets to guys like Spencer Strider (6/$75M with $22M option), Brayan Bello (6/$55M with $21M option), Hunter Greene (6/$53M with $21M option), and Brandon Pfaadt (5/$45M with $21M and $25M options).

Yeah, as mentioned only real issue has been health. 78 IP in 2023, 81 IP in 2024, 103 IP in 2025, 47 IP so far this year before tonight. Obviously a small MLB sample so far at only 48 IP before tonight, but his rate stats to this point have been among some pretty elite company (ranks out of 246 SP minimum 40 IP since last year)... Troy Melton (123 LOB+ | 1st) Logan Henderson (123 LOB+ | 2nd) Zack Wheeler (118 LOB+ | 3rd) Shohei Ohtani (52 ERA- | 1st) Troy Melton (52 ERA- | 2nd) Logan Henderson (53 ERA- | 3rd) Max Scherzer (138 FlyBall+ | 1st) Brandon Woodruff (138 FlyBall+ | 2nd) Logan Henderson (137 FlyBall+ | 3rd) Cole Ragans (156 K+ | 2nd) Logan Henderson (152 K+ | 3rd) Dylan Cease (146 K+ | 3rd) Logan Henderson (66 FIP- | 8th) Chris Sale (69 FIP- | 9th) Jesus Luzardo (69 FIP- | 10th) Logan Henderson (82 AVG+ | 16th) Hunter Greene (82 AVG+ | 17th) Jacob deGrom (83 AVG+ | 18th) Sonny Gray (179 K/BB+ | 19th) Shohei Ohtani (178 K/BB+ | 20th) Logan Henderson (177 K/BB+ | 21st) Logan Henderson (78 WHIP+ | 20th) Hunter Greene (78 WHIP+ | 21st) Tyler Glasnow (78 WHIP+ | 22nd) Nolan McLean (77 xFIP- | 20th) Logan Henderson (77 xFIP- | 21st) Dylan Cease (77 xFIP- | 22nd)

Lift & Pull is more like a State of Mind, so age is no disqualifier. Some even consider Dave Kingman to be a progenitor.

Haha, it's kinda funny because it's mostly just good old fashioned baseball that is getting the job done... 10.6 BB% (2nd) | 0.50 BB/K (3rd) | .337 OBP (4th) | .254 BA (6th) | 20.9 K% (7th) | +3.0 BsR (10th) | 43.5 Swing% (30th) Even with their recent RISP fallow stretch at 245 PA (1st) of 67 wRC+ (29th) for 65 runs scored (13th) going back to June 18th, their seasonal RISP numbers are still at 1,059 PA (1st) of 115 wRC+ (4th) for 378 runs scored (1st). With two outs? 1,154 PA (7th) of .744 OPS (3rd) for 178 runs scored (4th). With two strikes? 1,856 PA (13th) of .520 OPS (11th) for 158 runs scored (6th). Runner on 3rd, less than two outs? 243 PA (1st) of .899 OPS (11th) for 171 runs scored (1st). Bases Loaded? 121 PA (3rd) of .894 OPS (6th) for 100 runs scored (3rd). Against relievers? 1,608 PA (4th) of .738 OPS (7th) for 234 runs scored (6th). Late and Close? 589 PA (3rd) of .724 OPS (14th) for 92 runs scored (1st). High Leverage? 709 PA (5th) of .793 OPS (6th) for 198 runs scored (1st). The Brewers have the 3rd fewest PA when trailing all season (1,108) but have gone ahead and put up a .718 OPS (10th) and scored 138 runs (12th) anyway. The Pirates (139 runs when trailing) and Reds (136 runs when trailing) are on either side of us but have needed 1,226 (18th) and 1,363 PA (12th) respectively to score a similar amount of runs when behind. BaseRuns thinks the Brewers should be scoring 4.84 R/G with neutral sequencing, but with their high end contextual performances they have put up +46.78 RE24 (5th) and +3.95 WPA (4th) en route to actually scoring 5.09 R/G. Here's a fun one for the Lift & Pull Generation, the Brewers have a 47.9 GB% and 26.2 Oppo% both of which are the highest marks in all of MLB this year.

Good call on Boeve, he was #5 on their archived 2025 Top 30 so could see him getting added back on.

I'd go Juan Martinez or Dylan O'Rae personally. Yoho, Crow, Pratt, and Lara should all be graduating before the season is over too (plus whoever gets moved at the deadline) which will open up some more spots for 2026 Draftees plus maybe some guys like Jaron DeBerry, Cameron Wagner, Braylon Owens, Ricki Moneys, Angeni Fernandez, Leander Matos, etc. who are currently outside of the MLB Top 30.

In honor of Juan Martinez's first home run off the Complexes... 2025-26 Alexander Frias (306 PA) 358/441/517 (142 wRC+) 11.1 BB% | 17.0 K% | 24 SB / 10 CS 2025-26 Juan Martinez (372 PA) 336/460/561 (155 wRC+) 16.7 BB% | 11.1 K% | 46 SB / 4 CS Advantages Frias - younger, bigger, more projectable - has gotten some industry buzz Advantages Martinez - plate discipline (his 1.44 BB/K ratio is 4th of 1,483 minor leaguers with at least 350 PA last two years) - has a much less extreme BABIP (.368 vs .428 for Frias) - better current power (.226 ISO vs .158 for Frias) despite being shorter - higher up on the defensive spectrum - better base runner

Not a huge difference, but Misio had 12 postseason IP last year too so 141.1 IP total. That was after 71 IP in 2023, and 97 IP in 2024. Would guess they’ll keep giving him extra days between starts as needed (has made three starts on four days rest, ten on five days, and four on six days so far) and scale back some down the stretch too to try and keep him as fresh as possible for the postseason.

Over the last twelve days / thirteen games Brewers pitchers have thrown 119 IP (eleven more than any other team) with a 68 ERA- (2nd) and 87 FIP- (8th). Rotation with 69.1 IP (1st) of 74 ERA- | 88 FIP- (both 7th) while the bullpen has chipped in 49.2 IP (3rd) of 60 ERA- (4th) and 87 FIP- (7th). All told, the whole staff has stepped up to an MLB best 3.1 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR | +2.51 WPA to start this stretch. Batters have hit for a strong overall 114 wRC+ but only scored 4.62 R/G on account of the RISP struggles with 155 PA (1st) of 83 wRC+ (28th) shaking out to only 42 runs scored (11th) in those situations. To put those recent RISP struggles in context some, from the start of 2024 when Murphy took over thru June 24th of this year before this run of consecutive games the Brewers averaged 56 runs scored per 155 PA with RISP. 9 W - 4 L is impressive over any thirteen game stretch and I'll take it every time, but kinda crazy that they were just a couple well timed hits (that they've normally gotten over the last few years) away from 11 W - 2 L.

Andrew Fischer is one of 1,477 players with at least 350 PA since the start of last year in all of the minor leagues. Fischer's .355 ISO is first on the leaderboard, Spencer Jones is second with a .296 ISO. His 174 wRC+ is fourth below Mike Sirota and Kevin McGonigle at 182 each and just above Konnor Griffin with a 171 wRC+. Of the twenty players with at least a 150 wRC+, the next highest strikeout rate after Fischer's 31.3 K% is a guy named Parks Harber (23.9 K%) who is an older prospect in the Giants system. Of the next 34 guys on the leaderboard with a wRC+ in the 140's somewhere there is the aforementioned Jones (34.6 K%) and Nolan Schubart (33.7 K%) before it drops off to Drew Cavanaugh (26.2 K%) who is another older Giants prospect. Of the thirty players with at least 350 PA and a 145 wRC+ in all of MiLB over the last two years the Brewers have Fischer (174 wRC+), Adamczewski (157 wRC+), Adams (156 wRC+), Juan Martinez (153 wRC+), Ragsdale (150 wRC+), and Dinges (146 wRC+) taking up 20% of the spots.

9 W - 4 L to start the dreaded 18 games in 17 days (11 on the road) stretch.

Those five plus Drohan, Patrick, and Crow have started 78 of the Brewers 90 games so far this year, all in their Age 27 or younger season. Here are some of the Brewers results and ranks so far this year for SP in their Age 27 or younger season... 400 IP (3rd) | 130 K+ (1st) | 77 ERA- (2nd) | 80 FIP- (t-3rd) | 10.6 rWAR (1st, CLE is 2nd at 9.4) | 9.5 fWAR (1st, PIT is 2nd at 7.9) | +3.90 WPA (1st, SEA is 2nd at +2.47) | +48.66 RE24 (1st, LAD is 2nd at +31.59) If we expand it out to Age 28 season to include Ashby as the "old" young guy, plus switch from just SP to whole staff since some of those SP have been in swing roles (plus that loops in guys like Uribe and Hall) here are how the Brewers fare on that leaderboard... 639 IP (2nd) | 124 K+ (1st) | 76 ERA- (2nd) | 82 FIP- (t-1st) | 14.0 rWAR (1st, CLE is 2nd at 10.7) | 12.2 fWAR (1st, CLE is 2nd at 9.5) | +5.85 WPA (2nd, TOR is 1st at +6.24) | +81.99 RE24 (1st, TOR is 2nd at +48.43)

Run Prevention has always been the Boat Floater (including this year) but by virtue of starting from a better position than the offense it has had less room for improvement over the years. 2017-22 Full Stearns / Counsell 481 W - 390 L | .552 W% (7th) 4.24 RA/G (7th) | 4.55 RS/G (16th) 92 ERA- (6th) | 95 FIP- (7th) | 101 wRC+ (14th) 2023-24 Arnold / Murphy Transition 185 W - 139 L | .571 W% (4th) 3.98 RA/G (2nd) | 4.65 RS/G (12th) 88 ERA- (1st) | 99 FIP- (14th) | 99 wRC+ (18th) 2025-26 Full Arnold / Murphy 153 W - 98 L | .610 W% (1st) 3.82 RA/G (1st) | 5.02 RS/G (3rd) 83 ERA- (1st) | 90 FIP- (2nd) | 106 wRC+ (5th) Year over year from 2023 to present their RS/G has increased by a total of +0.60 runs per game while their RA/G has also decreased year over year since 2023, but only by a total of -0.34 runs per game. Both sides have upped their respective talent levels contributing to the increase and magnitude of Blowout games these last two seasons versus past iterations, but the offense going from middling to almost as good as the Run Prevention has contributed around 64% of the overall improvement in run differential since 2023 versus 36% for the Run Prevention side going from really good to even better & now with the peripherals to match.

Had to be added to the 40 after signing his extension.

Assuming Hamilton has the minimum ten day stay, Vaughn wouldn't need to play 3B regularly. They would likely just give Ortiz all the playing time there for the next seven games with Vaughn/Frelick as emergency options.

If the Brewers medical staff thinks Hamilton can get by with the minimum ten day IL stay that would take him right up to the end of the All Star Break and he could be activated then for the first game back.

Obviously priority #1 in the minors is player development, but looks like the Brewers are having another good summer of team success organizationally too... Giants 250 W - 174 L (.590 W%) Rays 236 W - 188 L (.557 W%) Brewers 232 W - 188 L (.552 W%) Rockies 235 W - 192 L (.550 W%) Nationals 212 W - 180 L (.541 W%) Dodgers 227 W - 194 L (.539 W%) Interesting mix of teams in that top half dozen with a trio of annual developmental powerhouses (TBR, MIL, LAD), then a couple of the worst teams in MLB this year (SFG, COL), plus the recently resurgent Nationals after losing more games than any non-Rockies team from 2020 to 2025. Here is how they compare based on the average age of their hitters and pitchers at the four non-complex level affiliates... Brewers Hit (22.1) Pitch (23.2) Rays Hit (22.9) Pitch (24.1) Nationals Hit (22.9) Pitch (24.3) Dodgers Hit (23.1) Pitch (23.9) Giants Hit (23.4) Pitch (24.7) Rockies Hit (23.6) Pitch (24.5) Brewers Farm Records from the recent-ish past... 2025 369 W - 345 L (.517 W%) 2024 389 W - 320 L (.549 W%) 2023 369 W - 334 L (.535 W%) 2022 396 W - 372 L (.516 W%) 2021 350 W - 354 L (.497 W%)

There are a few different factors contributing to Sanchez having higher WAR on BRef than Misio. The first is straight up quantity. Sanchez has 16.1 extra IP and WAR is a counting stat so that gives him an edge there. The others have more to do with the adjustments that BRef makes in an attempt to account for quality of opponents and team defense. Sanchez has faced a tougher slate (4.72 vs 4.57 RA9opp) with a worse defense behind him (-0.26 vs +0.20 RA9def) so he gets extra credit while Misio gets dinged some in the BRef calcs. Their intentions are understandable, but I think those different adjustments just end up making things more convoluted. FanGraphs is much more straight up with just innings and FIP for their fWAR or innings and RA9 for their rWAR. Misio 104 IP of 35 ERA- | 46 FIP- 4.7 rWAR | 4.3 fWAR Sanchez 120.1 IP of 61 ERA- | 62 FIP- 3.9 rWAR | 3.8 fWAR

I was looking at some of their W/L splits on BRef today and I think the year over year progression on margin of victory/defeat does a pretty good job illustrating how much they have been improving from a talent standpoint... 2023 (92 W - 70 L | +81 RDiff) OneRun: 29 W - 18 L | +11 runs TwotoFour: 44 W - 37 L | +33 runs FivePlus: 19 W - 15 L | +37 runs [47 OneRun games represented 29% of the season total, while 34 FivePlus were only 21%. The Brewers 4.49 R/G was only 17th in MLB for the season so they needed to do well in the games with closer margins because their offense wasn't capable of producing many blowouts or winning them at a top end clip] 2024 (93 W - 69 L | +136 RDiff) OneRun: 28 W - 25 L | +3 runs TwotoFour: 36 W - 34 L | +2 runs FivePlus: 29 W - 10 L | +131 runs [53 OneRun games represented 32.7% of the season total, while 39 FivePlus were 24.1%. The Brewers increased their offensive output to 4.80 R/G (6th) which helped them to a slightly higher percentage of blowout games with a much improved W% & margin of victory in those games as well] 2025 (97 W - 65 L | +172 RDIFF) OneRun: 28 W - 20 L | +8 runs TwotoFour: 32 W - 29 L | +10 runs FivePlus: 37 W - 16 L | +154 runs [48 OneRun games represented 29.6% of the season total, while 53 FivePlus represented 32.7%. The Brewers again increased their offensive output to 4.98 R/G (4th) which helped them to a much higher percentage of blowout games where they again dominated their opponents] 2026 (56 W - 33 L | +128 RDiff) OneRun: 14 W - 12 L | +2 runs TwotoFour: 21 W - 14 L | +22 runs FivePlus: 21 W - 7 L | +104 runs [26 OneRun games represent 29.2% of the season total so far, while 28 FivePlus represent 31.4%. The Brewers scoring is up yet again at 5.09 R/G (4th) while the pitchers have also shaved a quarter run per game from last year at 3.65 RA/G (2nd) which has again allowed them to have a high percentage of blowout games that they are winning at an improved clip by larger per game margins] The percentage of OneRun games remaining relatively static year to year while the percentage of blowouts takes a big jump between 2024/2025 is a pretty good indicator of how much the talent level has been improving. In 2023 they made more hay in the low margin games than they did in their blowouts because they weren't that much better than their opponents. In 2024 they made almost the entirety of their hay over their 39 blowout games. These last two years the magnitude and frequency of those blowouts has taken another couple two tree steps forward.

No doubt Freeman & Olson are the more established names at first, but the actual hitting numbers this year are remarkably close at a 136 wRC+ (8th) for the Braves, a 143 wRC+ (5th) for the Dodgers, and a 145 wRC+ (3rd) for the Brewers from their respective first basemen so far. Olson (+3 DRS | +3 FRV) and Freeman (+1 DRS | +2 FRV) have much better numbers afield than Bauers (-5 DRS | -5 FRV) and Vaughn (-1 DRS | -1 FRV) though. The seasonal OF numbers favor the Dodgers (110 wRC+ | 5.3 WAR) over the Braves (106 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR) and Brewers (105 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR). But the Brewers also have some pretty severe OF splits with a 75 wRC+ from their outfielders thru May 3rd but a much more robust 123 wRC+ from their outfielders since May 4th when Chourio and Vaughn returned (which also freed up Bauers for more OF time with one start on the grass thru May 3rd, but nineteen since May 4th).