sveumrules

The offense (& pitching too) has taken a clear and sizable step forward since Murphy took over. During the 2017 to 2023 competitive window when they won the 6th most games in MLB at 573 W - 460 L (.555 W%) they scored the 17th most runs per game (4.54) and allowed the 6th fewest (4.21) for an average run differential of +0.34 runs per game. Since 2024 their 230 W - 157 (.594 W%) record is the 2nd best in MLB, They have scored the 4th most runs per game (4.94) and allowed the fewest (3.87) for an average run differential of +1.07 runs per game. Their worst full season scoring mark since Murphy took over is 4.80 R/G. BaseRuns thinks they should be scoring 4.77 R/G with neutral sequencing (but we also know the Brewers are specifically designed to impart the residue of their good design at +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns estimates since Arnold took over in 2023). Barring simultaneous injuries to multiple of our top hitters (again) I'd think that 4.75 to 5.00 R/G is around where I'd set my personal regression meter from the 5.22 R/G they've scored so far this season or the 5.26 R/G they've scored over their last 179 team games.

2025 (4.98 R/G) 2024 (4.80 R/G) 2023 (4.49 R/G) 2022 (4.48 R/G) 2021 (4.56 R/G) 2019 (4.75 R/G) 2018 (4.63 R/G) 2017 (4.52 R/G) 2016 (4.14 R/G) The last time the Brewers scored as infrequently over 162 games as they did in May (4.15 R/G) was a decade ago when pitchers were still hitting. BaseRuns thinks they should have scored 4.77 R/G with neutral sequencing so far this season instead of the 5.22 R/G they've scored being the best team with RISP & one of the most clutch teams (again). Even the notoriously pessimistic FanGraphs projections thinks they are a 4.50 R/G team from here on out.

For the nine completed full seasons since Stearns/Arnold arrived in 2016 the Brewers have beaten their preseason FG projected win totals by an MLB best 87 wins. Eight of the nine years were over (2022 the only under), with five of those at +12 or more and on pace for another double digit overage this year (they were at 83 W). Going back to 2023 their seasonal runs per game differential has been +0.50 then +0.84 then +1.06 and now +1.67 so far this year. Those projections above are showing +0.28 run per game differential over the remaining 99 games. I don't expect them to maintain their current 103 Win pace, but I also don't think the fall off will be quite as steep as FanGraphs is projecting.

If Bauers finishes the year around the 148 wRC+ he is currently sporting (or even the 135 wRC+ his expected wOBA would roughly shake out to) I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers offered and Bauers accepted a QO (or whatever new mechanism maybe replaces it in the next CBA).

DSL Azul prevails by a score of 8 to 5. Five of their nine hits in the seven inning contest went for extra bases including doubles from Gerlyn Payano, Enrique Lovera, and Jose Rodriguez, plus a triple from Leanders Matos, and a home run from Leonard Rijo.

Derlin Garcia did just that striking out TEN against only 2 H | 1 BB in his five scoreless frames.

Noticed that Garrett Mitchell cleared 600 PA in the outfield yesterday, making him one of 150 players (a nice even five per team) with that many PA playing in the OF going back to 2022. Here are some of his ranks of that leaderboard... 601 PA (149th) | 3.7 WAR (t-75th) 34.3 K% (146th) | .380 BABIP (1st) 10.8 BB% (32nd) | 51.3 GB% (6th) .162 ISO (82nd) | 109 wRC+ (49th)

On April 25th the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L, their low point of the season so far. Since then their 27 W - 10 L record is the best in MLB, 1.5 games ahead of ATL / PHI at 26 W - 12 L over that same stretch. Some of their pertinent rankings... OFFENSE 5.46 R/G (1st) | 113 wRC+ (t-2nd) .316 BABIP (t-1st) | .265 AVG (1st) 10.5 BB% (2nd) | .345 OBP (1st) 19.6 K% (3rd) | 47.9 GB% (1st) +3.13 WPA (2nd) | 1.97 Clutch (2nd) .325xwOBA (10th) | .334 wOBA (t-3rd) 39.1 HardHit% (17th) | 7.1 Barrel% (24th) 31 HR (28th) | .139 ISO (26th) 441 PA w/ RISP (1st) 125 wRC+ w/ RISP (3rd) 152 RBI w/ RISP (1st) PITCHING 3.00 RA/G (1st) | 2.77 ERA (1st) 2.95 FIP (1st) | 3.11 xERA (1st) 27.6 K% (1st) | 0.62 HR9 (1st) .206 AVG (2nd) | 1.12 WHIP (2nd) 77.6% Strand Rate (4th) | +5.37 WPA (2nd) 33.8 HardHit% (1st) | 5.6 Barrel% (t-1st) 103.0 EV90 (1st) Overall for these last 37 games their MLB best run differential is +91 (202 scored and 111 allowed) or +2.46 runs per game. The low point of last year's season came a little later on with the Brewers still sitting at 21 W - 25 L after the game on May 17th. From then thru yesterday their 116 W - 63 L record is the best in MLB, eleven games ahead of NYY at 106 W - 75 L. Some of their pertinent rankings... OFFENSE 5.26 R/G (1st) | 112 wRC+ (2nd) .311 BABIP (1st) | .263 AVG (t-1st) 9.8 BB% (2nd) | .341 OBP (1st) 19.9 K% (3rd) | 45.6 GB% (1st) +11.59 WPA (1st) | 4.30 Clutch (2nd) .320 xwOBA (9th) | .330 wOBA (2nd) 39.3 HardHit% (22nd) | 6.9 Barrel% (28th) 179 HR (25th) | .147 ISO (25th) 1,991 PA w/ RISP (1st) 125 wRC+ w/ RISP (1st) 699 RBI w/ RISP (1st) PITCHING 3.66 RA/G (1st) | 3.32 ERA (1st) 3.58 FIP (1st) | 3.55 xERA (1st) 25.2 K% (1st) | 0.92 HR9 (1st) .222 AVG (2nd) | 1.19 WHIP (4th) 75.8% Strand Rate (2nd) | +14.91 WPA (1st) 37.6 HardHit% (1st) | 7.3 Barrel% (1st) 104.4 EV90 (2nd) Overall for these last 179 games their MLB best run differential is +287 (942 scored and 655 allowed) or +1.60 runs per game.

Perkins is just holding on to a roster spot until Lockridge is ready. As bad as Blake's 176/263/265 (53 wRC+) vs LHP was entering today it was still considerably better than Sal at 127/183/200 (7 wRC+) vs LHP so far this year. For their careers it is a 90 wRC+ vs LHP for Perkins vs a 77 wRC+ vs LHP for Frelick. Since Chourio came back on May 4th and Lockridge got injured on May 8th, Perkins has started a grand total of four games (all wins, naturally). They aren't going to call up Lara and interrupt his development for that kind of scant playing time. Right now there are only five lineup spots for the six of Vaughn, Bauers, Yelich, Chourio, Mitchell and Frelick in any one game. Believe it will probably take one of the three regular OF getting injured for a stretch (even then they might be fine platooning Bauers/Lockridge) or maybe Sal hitting poorly for another couple months before they would consider Luis. As far as Ortiz, his +3 DRS is tied for 3rd and his +4 FRV is 6th among shortstops with 250 innings this year. Until the Brewers evaluators believe Pratt is ready for MLB that SS defense is valuable since Hamilton has appeared overmatched there (-4 FRV this year, -10 for his career). Much like the Brewers as a team [89 wRC+ Bases Empty (22nd) vs 133 wRC+ w/ RISP (1st)], Joey has saved his best for the bigger moments at the plate to this point (51 wRC+ Bases Empty vs 138 wRC+ w/ RISP) so his contributions to winning and losing -0.67 WPA (58th worst min. 130 PA this year) haven't been quite as bad as his raw batting line (59 wRC+ | 20th lowest min. 130 PA).

Top Five MLB Run Differentials 01. Dodgers +141 02. Braves +116 03. Brewers +105 04. Yankees +86 05. Pirates +30 How bad has the Pirates defense (-14 FRV | 28th) and performance with runners on (69% strand rate | 25th) been so far this year? BaseRuns thinks they should be giving up 4.22 runs per game (12th) but they have actually given up 4.62 runs per game (20th). They have a 3.77 FIP (7th), 3.82 xERA (8th) and 3.84 SIERA (10th) but a 4.09 ERA (15th) plus those 0.53 unearned runs per game dropping them down another five spots on the overall RA/G allowed leaderboard.

Is he though? The Brewers have scored the 4th most runs in baseball since Murphy took over. From reading these game threads it seems like many would scoff at the notion of the Brewers even being a Top Ten offense (their 103 wRC+ is 11th in MLB so far this year). Whatever qualms some might have with his lineups, they score more runs than they should given the underlying numbers. Since Murphy took over Brewers relievers are 2nd in MLB with +19.22 Win Probability Added, a healthy dose below CLE in 1st at +27.07 and a slightly less healthy does ahead of ATL in 3rd at +13.86. Does he make the right call every time? Of course not, no manager does. But his calls work out at a higher rate than all but one other manager in MLB over the last two plus years. There's already a whole thread for that.

Mass Haas noted in the game thread from a few days ago that Rick Sweet had mentioned in a pregame interview there was a bug going around the clubhouse. Believe that was what kept Wilken out of action for like a week recently.

My day job does not involve math, just always been interested in all those numbers on the back of the baseball cards ever since opening my first pack of 1986 Topps. Pic is Sveumer’s actual senior photo, if the internet is to be believed. Stole it off one of those yearbook pages forever ago.

For sure, from 2023 to present they have given up the least runs in baseball which makes the hitter's job that much easier (though those same hitters also made the pitcher's jobs that much easier by shaving an MLB best 0.40 runs per game with a 4.02 FIP but 3.62 ERA over that stretch).

Despite all the injuries, underperformers, and inconsistencies they are playing at a 101 Win pace at the moment. I don't think they are True Talent Level 101 Win team so of course I'd expect them to play at a lower W% from here on out. A team getting a .667 W% out of their #3 through #8 starters like the Brewers are is impossible to maintain, but it sure is fun to celebrate while it's happening. The good news is the Brewers know very well they will need more than the 13 pitchers on the OD roster to get through a season, which is why they normally stack their 40 Man with better depth options than most organizations, or keep a guy like Woodford around longer than fans would like to soak up those mostly meaningless innings. They typically add at least one arm every deadline as well. Some of those 6 or 7 pitchers on the IL will come back at some point down the road, others will inevitably go onto the IL in the meantime. The Brewers allowed the fewest R/G in 2023, the 4th fewest in 2024, the 3rd fewest in 2024, the 3rd fewest so far this year, and the fewest in total from 2023 thru present. Regression is incoming no doubt, but given their history with run prevention (they allowed the 7th fewest runs in MLB from 2017-22 also) I'd imagine they should be able to keep things within the top half dozen or so teams at limiting runs by the end of 162 games.

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games. In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games. In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (46.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games. In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games. So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games. Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

How bad has the Pirates defense been so far this year? Team FIP PIT (3.76 | 8th) STL (4.20 | 17th) CHI (4.48 | 24th) Team ERA PIT (4.00 | 13th) STL (4.14 | 17th) CHI (4.17 | 18th) Runs Allowed per Game CHI (4.41 | 15th) STL (4.48 | 16th) PIT (4.57 | 20th)

The Brewers are 16 W - 7 L (.696 W%) in games started by Misio and Harrison. The Brewers are 0 W - 5 L (.000 W%) in games started by Gasser or Ashby/Hall openers. The Brewers are 22 W - 11 L (.667 W%) in the games started by Sproat (6 W - 4 L), Patrick (5 W - 1 L), Woodruff (4 W - 2 L), Crow (3 W - 1 L), Henderson (3 W - 2 L), and Drohan (1 W - 1 L).

In yesterday's thread Mass Haas noted a pregame interview form a few days back where Rick Sweet mentioned there was a bug going around the Nashville clubhouse.

The Blue Jays signed Kaz Okamoto (4/$60M) and traded for Jesus Sanchez ($6.8M) to reinforce their offense, plus signed Dylan Cease for 7/$210M, Tyler Rogers for 3/$37M, and old friend Cody Ponce for 3/$30M on the pitching side. They went from a 112 wRC+ and 4.93 R/G in 2025 to a 95 wRC+ and 4.08 R/G so far this year and currently sit at 30 W - 33 L with a -7 run differential on the season. The Brewers mailed it in and went from a 107 wRC+ and 4.98 R/G in 2025 to a 101 wRC+ and 5.02 R/G so far this year. They are at 37 W - 23 L with a +89 run differential. The Brewers have gone from 86 to 92 to 93 to 97 wins over the last four seasons, from +37 to +81 to +136 to +172 run differential, all while shedding player, coaching, and front office talent every year along the way. They are on pace to improve on both of those totals again this year, where they might get another shot at the Dodgers in the postseason. Maybe they'll lose to the superior team again, or maybe they'll strike a blow to Capitalism on the eve of offseason labor negotiations. Toronto performed better than us in their short series against the Dodgers last fall, and beat us in Offseason Activity no doubt, but they somehow aren't as well positioned for a rematch as the mail it in Brewers are.

Who would you have gone after for 3B/SS instead? Perusing the positional leaderboards I don't see many names that moved teams this offseason. Doubt the Cardinals were trading Arenado or Donovan in the division. They could have signed proven 49 HR hitter Eugenio Suarez for a mere $15M but he's got a 78 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR so wouldn't have been much of an upgrade anyway. I think a more realistic scenario than mailing it in is that they turned over a bunch of stones looking for a 3B/SS that was available at a reasonable price, found nothing, so instead decided to wait it out until the prospects are ready.

Heisting Harrison plus Drohan & Hamilton too for Durbin and a Comp B pick was a pretty inspired move if they were just mailing it in. It takes hundreds of people working hard and doing their jobs incredibly well for the Brewers to experience the kind of top to bottom organizational success they are having now for the fourth consecutive season (2nd most wins in MLB since 2023 with a brimming farm system behind it), a marked improvement over the already pretty successful 2017-22 stretch (7th most wins in MLB).

Second game in a row too it looks like. Adams played all twelve of his games at 1B before being injured and since returning it has been four at 3B, two at DH, and one at 1B including his ACL stint. Might also be that Lara has that same bug that's been going around (last played June 2nd) and Jett is the best CF option left.

Could just be a little mental break? From May 14th thru his last game on the 27th he had 50 PA of 081/300/108 (37 wRC+) with a 34.0 K%.

I think it's mostly a byproduct of having such a deep system, there were 15 more or less consensus guys in the May voting which left Dylan as one of like a dozen guys fighting it out for those last five or so spots, though it looks like he did make it onto seven ballots with a high rank of #13 so did get some love. With Drohan and Crow coming up on graduation, plus Pratt, Jett, Lara, Yoho and maybe even Hardin as possibilities by the end of the year that should open up a few slots in the Top 20. Guys like JD Thompson and Brock Wilken at the back of the list might be candidates to drop off too if their performance doesn't step up in the interim. But yeah, couldn't ask for a much better return from injury than to come back strong in the Southern League where he was so overmatched (298 PA of 67 wRC+) back in 2024. Thought it was kind of interesting how similar his line this year is to his stint with Carolina back in 2023... 2023 Carolina (107 PA) 330/439/375 (137 wRC+) 15.9 BB% | 13.1 K% .045 ISO | .387 BABIP 2026 Biloxi (220 PA) 313/436/381 (130 wRC+) 15.9 BB% | 17.3 K% .068 ISO | .388 BABIP 2029 Milwaukee ?!?!?!?!?