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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    From what I understand the big game is imminent. Reports indicate funny commercials and a big musical number will be sprinkled in throughout.
  2. sveumrules
    I don't see Adames agreeing to move off of SS - where he has posted +17 DRS (4th) and +25 OAA (2nd) the last two years - on the eve of free agency.
  3. sveumrules
    Right, Cortez had sheer dominance. If one were going to try to rationalize any of these three pitchers being ranked #3 on stats alone (because I'm pretty sure no one on this board has actually seen them pitch) he would be the one. Among 67 pitchers aged 16/17 in the DSL with at least 30 IP his 9.80 K/BB ranked 1st, his 0.99 BB/9 ranked 1st, his 2.64 FIP ranked 3rd, his 3.09 xFIP ranked 2nd. Hernandez is ten months younger, sure, but his meaningful indicators weren't nearly as impressive - 7.81 K9 vs 9.66 K9, 2.31 BB9 vs 0.99 BB9 - that's why his FIP came in almost a full run higher at 3.58. Still encouraging no doubt, but only 12th among those 67 DSL pitchers aged 16/17 to throw at least 30 IP. Comparing Prado to Misiorowski on raw stats is Apples to Filet Mignon. One put up his numbers in the DSL, the other in the Carolina, Midwest and Southern Leagues. This is multiple magnitudes of difference in competition level. Not to mention there exists video evidence of Misio being a mammoth human with ridiculous stuff. We literally know nothing about Prado (or any of these guys) besides what it says on a computer screen. "I can't see/know exactly what", sums up our collective knowledge of these pitchers outside of their stat lines pretty well.
  4. sveumrules
    These are fun guys to keep an eye on no doubt given their encouraging DSL results at such young ages, but the main outlier for Hernandez and Prado is that their ERAs (2.06 and 1.54) are so much lower than their peripherals would imply (3.58 and 3.91 FIPs, respectively). Cortez is easily the most exciting for me from a statistical standpoint since his 2.64 FIP is on a whole other level compared to the other two. EC: 9.66 K9 | 0.99 BB9 | 9.80 K/BB | 0.20 HR9 MH: 7.71 K9 | 2.31 BB9 | 3.33 K/BB | 0.26 HR9 EP: 8.12 K9 | 3.07 BB9 | 2.64 K/BB | 0.44 HR9 Hopefully some of them make it over to Arizona this year so we can get further intel. As we've seen with guys like Edwin Jimenez, Stiven Cruz, Alexander Cornielle, and Alexander Vallecillo recently it's a long road from encouraging DSL results to replicating those outlier performances over larger samples against more advanced competition at the lower levels stateside.
  5. sveumrules
    Way to go to everybody who took the time to put together a list. Breaking down the votes somewhat I'd say the tiers are essentially something like this... BIG TIME STUD Jackson Chourio (34 of 36 #1 Votes) CONSENSUS TOP 50 TYPES Jeferson Quero (33 of 36 #2 to #4 Votes) Jacob Misiorowski (31 of 36 #2 to #4 Votes) Tyler Black (29 of 36 #2 to #4 Votes) TOP 100 OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT TYPES Brock Wilken (#4 High to #11 Low) Robert Gasser (#4 High to #10 Low) DL Hall (#3 High to #12 Low) Joey Ortiz (#4 High to #15 Low) Carlos Rodriguez (#4 High to #12 Low) Luis Lara (#5 High to #19 Low) HIGHER UPSIDE NEXT WAVE Cooper Pratt (#7 High to #15 Low) Eric Brown Jr (#8 High to UR Low) Josh Knoth (#9 High to UR Low) Yophery Rodriguez (#5 High to UR Low) STILL PRETTY DANG EXCITING NEXT WAVE Mike Boeve (#12 High to UR Low) Luke Adams (#11 High to UR Low) Eric Bitonti (#13 High to UR Low) Logan Henderson (#10 High to UR Low) Those 18 were all pretty much on the majority of the ballots submitted. After that looks like Baez and Guilarte got the most votes among a group of guys like Wes Clarke, Shane Smith, Dylan O'Rae, Bradley Blalock, Coleman Crow, Ryan Birchard, Oliver Dunn, Jadher Areinamo, Patricio Aquino, Jorge Quintana and others who got a couple few votes each.
  6. sveumrules
    Jackson ChourioJeferson QueroTyler BlackJacob MisiorowskiDL HallJoey OrtizBrock WilkenEric Brown JrLuis LaraRobert GasserCarlos F RodriguezCooper PrattJosh KnothYophery RodriguezLuke AdamsEric BitontiLogan HendersonBradley BlalockOliver DunnDylan O'Rae
  7. sveumrules
    I’d imagine his teammates especially are far more understanding than the fans. They live the business side of baseball everyday and are far more familiar with the actual real life stakes, we just observe and comment. Either way, it came out that Hader had one of the cleanest health reports of any FA pitcher ever, and he got a record setting contract, and the Brewers never really lost a beat when he moved from fireman to closer man, and now we have Contreras, Payamps, and Gasser to show for it all…so I’d say it turned out pretty ok for all involved parties.
  8. sveumrules
    Early ZiPS projected NL standings are up over at FanGraphs today. Has the NLC win totals at…STL (83) CHI (81) MIL (80) CIN (79) PIT (75) Here is where it saw the NLC at the same time last year with the actual win total following the projection… STL (91, 71) MIL (83, 92) CHC (78, 83) CIN (70, 82) PIT (68, 76) Twelve wins seems like a pretty steep drop to me. No Burnes (4.8 rWAR), Woodruff (2.8 rWAR) or Houser (1.4 rWAR) is 9 wins of rotation mainstays gone. But no Lauer (-0.8 rWAR), Bush (-0.7 rWAR) or Chafin (-0.4 rWAR) eats into that by a couple wins. Offense is a few wins worse with no Caratini (1.1 WAR), Canha (1.0 WAR), Taylor (0.8 WAR) or Santana (0.7 WAR). But not having guys like Rowdy (-0.9 WAR), Winker (-0.8 WAR), Brosseau (-0.5 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR) or Singleton (-0.4 WAR) wipes most of that out. On paper, I’d see 2024 about seven or eight wins short of 2023 before accounting for offseason additions and hopeful improvement from a stable of young position players.
  9. sveumrules
    Lillard hurt, Middleton hurt, Lopez missed the last few games before last night for the birth of his child. Integral players shuffling in and out of the lineup (and literally having zero healthy point guards last night after Payne was dealt) will have a discombobulating effect. Rivers took over on a five game road trip out West that was always going to be one of the tougher stretches of the season, even if they hired Nurse in the offseason like everybody but Giannis knew they should have. My expectation was always that it would take time to undo Griffin’s idiocy and they would get worse in the short term, especially considering they had one of the easier first half schedules and one of the more difficult second half slates.
  10. sveumrules
    Junis 2023: 0.7 WAR Sanchez 2023: 1.7 WAR Turner 2023: 1.2 WAR So instead of a 39 year old DH they got two 31 year olds that can contribute from the rotation, the bullpen, catcher and DH who were already twice as valuable as a 38 year old Turner. Turner is what he is and his wRC+ has been falling for three straight years, Junis and Sanchez both have areas where the Brewers could help them improve still.
  11. sveumrules
    Yup. Giants 2022-23 -79 DRS (28th) 3.94 ERA vs 3.67 FIP +0.27 difference (26th) Brewers 2022-23 +113 DRS (2nd) 3.78 ERA vs 4.07 FIP -0.29 difference (3rd) On average, pitching for the Brewers vs the Giants the last two years would net a pitcher over half a run improvement on their ERA. And that’s with SF playing in one of thee most favorable pitching environments in baseball.
  12. sveumrules
    Last year Caratini got 226 PAs. I’d guess Sanchez gets more than that because he can be a DH option on days he isn’t catching. Barring a return to early career form on offense, or an injury to Contreras, I’d guess he comes in around 300 PAs. Sanchez put up 1.7 WAR in only 276 PAs last year, 15th among 36 catchers with at least 250 PA in 2023. If he matches that production this year he’ll be a steal for $7M.
  13. sveumrules
    2023 Haase: -1.4 WAR 2023 Sanchez: 1.7 WAR Among 32 catchers with at least 750 PAs since 2021 Sanchez ranks 15th with a 99 wRC+ and 13th with 4.6 WAR (same as Mitch Garver). We just added a starting calibre catcher to be our backup.
  14. sveumrules
    Just one more roadblock for Catcher of the Future Wes Clarke.
  15. sveumrules
    Belt makes the most sense to me of the guys still out there. DH everyday vs RHP and spell Hoskins at 1B as needed. I’d be fine with JDM too, costs more and doesn’t give any positional flex, but would be a certified middle of the order masher. Don’t see then going multiple years on a DH only guy, so prolly no dice on Soler unless he wants to take a high dollar short term deal like Teoscar did with the Dodgers. Dark horse move could be trading Adames, then reinvesting the money saved on him and Burnes to sign Matt Chapman.
  16. sveumrules
    BTV has six years of Mayo with $43.7M in surplus value versus one year of Burnes at $33.3M, so this is the most likely possibility. Or maybe the Orioles said sure, we’ll give you Mayo, but we’re going to need someone like Gasser ($10.5M), Brock Wilken ($8.9M) or Payamps ($8.8M) included to even things out. Or maybe the Brewers didn’t have a singular focus on getting power back instead focusing on getting what they viewed as the best overall return.
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, Adames is still young enough to have that peak season, and what better year to do it than his walk year. He also hasn’t really had a season where put together top end offense and defense 2019 99 wRC+ | +11.8 DEF | 3.3 WAR 2021 120 wRC+ | -0.3 DEF | 3.3 WAR 2022 109 wRC+ | +14.8 DEF | 4.6 WAR 2023 94 wRC+ | +17.7 DEF | 3.4 WAR His best hitting year was his worst by the fielding metrics in 2021, and then this last year he posted his worst hitting and best fielding numbers. If he can come out and post a wRC+ around 120 with +15 DEF that should get him up around 5 WAR and give him a shot at landing a Dansby Swanson sized deal in FA.
  18. sveumrules
    That will very likely end up being the case as the Celtics appear to be in a tier of their own, but the Bucks are playing with no Dame, no Brook and likely no Khris the rest of the game after he left early with a rolled ankle…and they still lead a fully healthy Durant, Booker and Beal at half.
  19. sveumrules
    Have a feeling the staff is going to be deployed in much more of a nebulous Rays like fashion now that Burnes/Woodruff are gone.
  20. sveumrules
    Right, but for all those extra starts, Houser only threw 16 additional IP.
  21. sveumrules
    Houser 2022-23 214 IP | 105 ERA- | 97 FIP- | 108 GB%+ | 79 K%+ Junis 2022-23 198 IP | 104 ERA- | 93 FIP- | 100 GB%+ | 102 K%+ So essentially Houser with more Ks and less GBs.
  22. sveumrules
    This is why you extend Chourio before he has his 6 WAR breakout season.
  23. sveumrules
    Article over on FanGraphs today about which players saw the biggest gains and losses to their 2024-27 projections based on their performance in 2023. Brewers landed four risers with Tyler Black, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Abner Uribe all catching the computer’s eye.
  24. sveumrules
    Dude kind of sounds like Bauer-lite a little bit. Had the incident with Plesac where they violated Covid protocols, then he had a domestic incident last year. MLB didn’t take official disciplinary action, but sounds like Clevinger “voluntarily” entered some kind of treatment program. Could be a factor in why he hasn’t signed yet, or could just be waiting out Snell and Montgomery.
  25. sveumrules
    That’s gotta be the most aggressive placement for Quero so far. Exciting stuff.
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