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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Not saying BTV is infallible by any means, but they’ve got this package like $11M short on Milwaukee’s end. By their calcs subbing Payamps for Wilson adds just shy of $10M in value, or a Frelick for Woo one for one would be essentially a wash. Seattle has JRod locking down CF, so they probably aren’t the ideal trade partner for our surplus there. Scanning CF depth charts I think the best fits are COL, SDP, CLE, KCR or TBR.
  2. sveumrules
    It’s not crazy, but it’s probably not consensus either. Depending how one weights ceiling/floor & likelihood of reaching that ceiling, you can really put Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer in any order. Frelick has the least power of the three, but his approach and contact ability give him the highest floor and best chance to realize his ceiling. Wiemer has the most power of the three, but needs to fix his swing to get there. Michell has the best total package, but is injured all the time and has a couple big red flags in his limited MLB performance so far with a career 38.3 K% and .441 BABIP.
  3. sveumrules
    New year, new MLB misc news thread. New Orioles owners finally? Looks like Angelos family is cashing out the tune of 1.725 Billion Dollars. Sale needs to be approved at the upcoming owners meetings, and sounds like it might be more of a gradual transfer for tax purposes, but maybe now they’ll start locking up and adding to their young core.
  4. sveumrules
    I’d guess Anderson is holding out for a 40 Man Spot, but is only getting Arroyo offers right now, aka come to camp and earn it. He is pretty much the poster boy for the perils of BABIP dependency though. When he was going good from 2019-21 (among 159 players with at least 1,000 PAs) he came in at .322 AVG (1st) | 126 wRC+ (37th) | 11.5 WAR (15th) He never walked (3.6 BB% | 157th) and hit for below average power (.173 ISO | 110th) but rode an insane .394 BABIP (1st) to the very top of the batting average column and Top 15 WAR. To give some context as to how out there his BABIP was, the next best over that same stretch was Yoan Moncada all the way down at .368. The highest over the two years prior was Judge/Altuve at .362. The highest over the last two years is Freeman at .364. Speaking of last two years (among 177 players with at least 800 PAs), Anderson still doesn’t walk (4.6 BB% | 172nd), and his power completely disappeared (.068 ISO | 176th). His heavily regressed .333 BABIP is still good at 22nd, but not good enough as his 80 wRC+ (168th) and 1.5 WAR (149th) are both precipitous drops. Feels like a National or Angel to me. Rockies as a dark horse because if he can’t regain form at Coors that’s prettty much a wrap.
  5. sveumrules
    Yeah, all the plus stats adjust for ballpark and leaguewide offense. Like Moose had a raw ISO of .221 from 2015-18 with KC which shook out to a 133 ISO+ once all the adjustments were made. He followed that up with a raw ISO of .241 from 2018-19 with MIL, but that also shook out to a 133 ISO+ since Miller Park is easier to slug in than Kaufmann and offense was up in 2019 (.187 leaguewide ISO) compared to 2015-18 (.153 to .175 leaguewide ISO).
  6. sveumrules
    In the three years before the Brewers acquired Moose he went for 1742 PA | 115 wRC+ | 7.9 WAR compared to 1824 PA | 110 wRC+ | 11.7 WAR for Chapman. In addition to defense (+24 DRS | +21 OAA for Chapman vs -11 DRS | -4 OAA for Moose), Matt also had a notable edge on the bases at +7.4 BsR over the last three years compared to -14.4 BsR for Mike over the three years before we acquired him. They also get to their offense in pretty different ways... Moose walked below average (82 BB%+), struck out less than average (68 K%+), got hits above average (105 AVG+) and slugged big time (133 ISO+). Chapman has a whole different approach with a ton of walks (139 BB%+), strike outs (129 K%+), not as many hits (92 AVG+) and a good amount of power (121 ISO+). Moose was a big time fly ball hitter (121 FB%+) with more of an all fields approach at 102 Pull+ | 95 Cent+ | 104 Oppo+ whereas Chapman sells out even more for flyballs (133 FB%+) to the pull side and up the middle at 105 Pull+ | 105 Cent+ | 85 Oppo+
  7. sveumrules
    For real. Of the 320 players that have racked up 6,000 plate appearances since Gantner debuted in 1976 he ranks 301st with an 87 wRC+ and 280th with 19.5 WAR. His two closest comps are Eric Young Sr. with a 94 wRC+ and 19.8 WAR or Adam Kennedy with an 88 wRC+ and 18.3 WAR over that stretch. I guess he maybe holds the distinction of being the longest tenured, most mediocre single franchise player in history?
  8. sveumrules
    Polanco/Raya is maybe half of Burnes excess value, I’d guess that’s why nothing materialized there. White Sox would probably want Quero to headline any Cease deal, which is a no go for me. If the Brewers have room to still push payroll a bit just sign a veteran bat like Turner, Belt or Urshela for additional lineup depth.
  9. sveumrules
    I think Garrett Mitchell is a good position player comp for Ashby. Both have dealt with injury issues, both have the look and toolbox to succeed at their respective positions yet have struggled to put it all together in their limited field time. The best thing Ashby has going for him is he gets grounders. Among 352 pitchers with at least 130 IP since 2021, his 133 GB%+ ranks 20th. That’s just outside top 5th percentile. His strikeout rate isn’t quite as impressive, but a 119 K%+ is still good enough to rank 73rd, just outside the top 20th percentile. Closest comp to him over that stretch in terms of ground balls and strikeouts would be Jordan Hicks (115 K%+ | 137 GB%+). Other guys in the neighborhood are Lance McCullers (117 K%+ | 130 GB%+), Hunter Brown (116 K%+ | 129 GB%+) or Emmanuel Clase (111 K%+ | 147 GB%+). Problems aside from health for Aaron have been walks (115 BB%+ | 270th) and home runs (109 HR9+ | 243rd). Given his command and health woahs, I think his best role would be as a MIRP (multi inning relief pitcher), but there is number two tree starter upside in there so I can understand trying him in the rotation.
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, exactly. Hoskins on average will probably cost you a couple two tree runs in the field over a full season versus Rowdy at closer to like -7 to -10. Another big difference between the two is that Hoskins is slow with -7.8 BsR since 2019 (154th of 202 players with at least 1,500 PA), but Rowdy is a whole other level of stationary at -14.8 BsR (184th) over that same stretch.
  11. sveumrules
    Among 27 players with at least 2,500 innings at 1B since 2017, Hoskins comes in at -7 DRS (22nd) and -11 OAA (20th). He did all that in 4,195 innings. Rowdy comes in at -13 DRS (24th) and -19 OAA (25th), but he did all that in only 2,969 innings. If you prorate that out to Rhys playing time it would be something like -18 DRS and -27 OAA.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, Conforto went for a 99 OPS+ and 0.7 WAR, Bell came in at 104 OPS+ and 0.4 WAR. Unsurprisingly, neither opted out. That's why it's a better idea to not just give guys 4/80 for no real reason when you can get them for 2/34 and an opt out.
  13. sveumrules
    Not sure where people are getting this from. Last year was $119M on Opening Day and $126M at the end of the season. Roster Resource currently has them at $122M, Cot's at $120M, Spotrac at $105M but no Hoskins on their ledger yet.
  14. sveumrules
    Minor League deal so only needs to be added to the 40 Man if he makes the team out of spring training.
  15. sveumrules
    Roster Resource has them at $122M projected for OD 2024 compared to $119M for OD 2023 and $126M to end last season, so they’re right in that range already. I’d guess there’s room for one more FA in the five to nine million range if they could pull one of Urshela, Turner or Belt as a veteran hedge for the young position players.
  16. sveumrules
    Houser and Taylor combine for about $7M in 2024 salary. Every team has a budget, so who would you have dealt instead to save that same $7M?
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, biggest difference between Wagner and Nathan is that Wagner has the second highest league adjusted K rate in MLB history (min. 900 IP). The incomparable Dazzy Vance put up a redonkulous 225 K%+ over a Century ago, but after him it's Wagner (190), Nolan Ryan (183), Satchel Paige (183), Randy Johnson (176), Sandy Koufax (173), Lefty Grove (170), Dizzy Dean (169), Bob Feller (168), Pedro Martinez (168), JR Richard (166), etc. Other advantage Billy has on Joe are that all 903 of his IP came as a dominant reliever. From 1996 to 2008, outside of an 81 ERA+ in 2000, Wagner's lowest ERA+ was 141. That is a dozen dominant relief seasons. Nathan has 761 IP of stellar but not quite as dominant as Wagner relief work, plus 162 IP as a below average starter at the beginning of his career which drags down his career totals. He was only a top tier reliever for nine seasons.
  18. sveumrules
    Assuming Contreras and Haase start in Milwaukee, Clarke will be behind Quero, Austin Nola and Brian Navarreto for catching reps in Nashville to open the year. Of course, the Brewers could always coach up Clarke's defense like they have with other guys (though those other guys were already established MLB catchers who had been primary catcher all through the minor leagues too), but reading between the lines I don't believe they would have signed Nola or re-signed Navarreto if they intended to give Clarke significant time behind the dish at Nashville.
  19. sveumrules
    Jake Bauers has moved down the depth chart.
  20. sveumrules
    Salary saved re-invested and then some.
  21. sveumrules
    I’d have no problem with that either, I just don’t think Boras and Hoskins want to commit to DH only or primary DH sometimes 1B on the defensive spectrum so soon because it eats into future earning potential. Coming off surgery, and with the opt out, they are going to want to get 120-130 games at 1B to show he’s healthy and deserving of a three four year deal. That’s why I think guys like Turner or Belt, who are already in the primary DH sometimes 1B phase of their career are more likely than Santana if the Brewers decide to add another bat.
  22. sveumrules
    I’d guess the deal is contingent on Rhys being the primary 1B, so probably no Santana. Assuming $17M per year that brings payroll to around $122M versus $126M to end last year using the numbers on roster resource. Probably enough room to add a “legit” DH like Turner or Belt (Joc or JDM likely too rich) if they want to push things a little more in the last year with Burnes/Adames.
  23. sveumrules
    Wes Clarke has zero PAs above AA. Wilken has 25 PAs at AA. Non-roster invitation to spring training or not, neither of these guys is in a position to impact the MLB club on Opening Day. At some point later in the season? Sure, maybe, but that should be viewed as more of a bonus outcome than an expected one. I certainly hope he makes it and is the starting 3B, but even Tyler Black isn’t a lock for the OD roster. There’s plenty of room in the org for Hoskins, Black, Clarke and Wilken.
  24. sveumrules
    I’m not a member myself, so can’t see the whole thing, but he has a LinkedIn page. Apparently he creates effective, impactful communication projects and events.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, Wes Clarke is a catcher like former Clancy #1 prospect Cooper Hummel is a catcher or former Clancy #1 prospect Ernesto Martinez is a CF. If Clarke (34 games at catcher) was viewed as a legit backstop he would have been closer to Quero (74 games at catcher) in games behind the dish at Biloxi. Instead he split back up duties with Nick Kahle (26 games at catcher). To say nothing of the huge discrepancy in CS% and scouting reports.
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