sveumrules

Last year every player but Burnes settled without a hearing. This year every single player settled without a hearing. Historically, the Brewers have settled with the overwhelming majority of their Arby’s guys instead of going to a hearing. I think Burnes was the one looking for a fight moreso than the Brewers were last winter.

Justin Chambers clearly has some talent, but has yet to throw a professional pitch. It’ll probably be at least five years before we know if the price paid was steep, inconsequential, or somewhere in between.

Idiotic of the NBA to schedule teams for a National Game on the second half of a B2B, but if that’s what it takes to beat the Celtics…I guess I’ll take it.

Nola probably signed with the Brewers because it's the best offer he got. They also have a reputation for "fixing" catcher defense and Nola has been among the worst with -12 DRS (41st of 50 catchers with at least 1,500 innings from 2019-23) and -8.3 Framing Runs (34th) for his career.

Roster Resource lists Clarke as having an option remaining. MLBTR noted the same in their write up of the transaction.

NL WEST Los Angeles Dodgers (+50 Wins, 2nd) 16: 93 (91) -2 17: 97 (104) +7 18: 95 (92) -3 19: 92 (106) +14 21: 100 (106) +6 22: 95 (111) +16 23: 88 (100) +12 Colorado Rockies (+16 Wins, 8th) 16: 73 (75) +2 17: 78 (87) +9 18: 79 (91) +12 19: 79 (71) -8 21: 65 (74) +9 22: 68 (68) 0 23: 67 (59) -8 Arizona Diamondbacks (+7 Wins, 11th) 16: 78 (69) -9 17: 77 (93) +16 18: 81 (82) +1 19: 77 (85) +8 21: 72 (52) -20 22: 69 (74) +5 23: 78 (84) +6 San Francisco Giants (-6 Wins, 17th) 16: 88 (87) -1 17: 88 (64) -24 18: 81 (73) -8 19: 73 (77) +4 21: 76 (107) +31 22: 85 (81) -4 23: 83 (79) -4 San Diego Padres (-41 Wins, 26th) 16: 73 (68) -5 17: 66 (71) +5 18: 72 (66) -6 19: 78 (70) -8 21: 95 (79) -16 22: 90 (89) -1 23: 92 (82) -10 NOTES: Of course the Dodgers beat up on the projections just like they do the rest of MLB (regular season non-pandemic WS only). They also clock in at +326 DRS (2nd) and +39.88 bullpen WPA (4th) to support the idea that elite fielding and relief pitching help you beat the projections. Rockies at least meet one criteria (+165 DRS, 9th), even if their bullpen is predictably non-impactful (+4.51 WPA, 19th). Frequent Offseason Champion Padres checking in at -41 wins versus the projections, 5th worst in MLB, kind of goes to show that winning the offseason doesn't always equate to winning the actual season.

NL CENTRAL Milwaukee Brewers (+58 Wins, 1st) 16: 69 (73) +4 17: 70 (86) +16 18: 80 (96) +16 19: 81 (89) +8 21: 83 (95) +12 22: 90 (86) -4 23: 86 (92) +6 St. Louis Cardinals (+9 Wins, 10th) 16: 86 (86) 0 17: 85 (83) -2 18: 87 (88) +1 19: 84 (91) +7 21: 81 (90) +9 22: 83 (93) +10 23: 87 (71) -16 Chicago Cubs (-5 Wins, 16th) 16: 96 (103) +7 17: 96 (92) -4 18: 96 (95) -1 19: 87 (84) -3 21: 80 (71) -9 22: 75 (74) -1 23: 77 (83) +6 Cincinnati Reds (-8 Wins, 19th) 16: 71 (68) -3 17: 68 (68) 0 18: 71 (67) -4 19: 79 (75) -4 21: 79 (83) +4 22: 75 (62) -13 23: 70 (82) +12 Pittsburgh Pirates (-12 Wins, 20th) 16: 83 (78) -5 17: 80 (75) -5 18: 76 (82) +6 19: 77 (69) -8 21: 66 (61) -5 22: 69 (62) -7 23: 70 (82) +12 NOTES: Brewers are the biggest projection beaters of them all with +242 DRS (4th) and +41.55 bullpen WPA (1st) doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Cubs are another outlier to the defense/relief theory with +289 DRS (3rd) and a +29.29 bullpen WPA (8th), but a middling -5 wins versus the projections and only a 31 win deviation from zero over the seven full seasons, 3rd smallest in the sample. Also think this exercise does a good job of illustrating how the NLC is superior to the ALC, despite them often getting lumped together as equally bad. The actual win tally comes in at 2,972 for the NLC compared to 2,813 for the ALC from 2016-23, while the NLC came in at +42 net wins vs the projections compared to -123 net wins vs the projections for the ALC.

NL EAST Atlanta Braves (+49 Wins, 3rd) 16: 68 (68) 0 17: 72 (72) 0 18: 73 (90) +17 19: 84 (97) +13 21: 88 (88) 0 22: 93 (101) +8 23: 93 (104) +11 Philadelphia Phillies (+7 Wins, 12th) 16: 64 (71) +7 17: 72 (66) -6 18: 77 (80) +3 19: 85 (81) -4 21: 80 (82) +2 22: 87 (87) 0 23: 85 (90) +5 Miami Marlins (-21 Wins, 23rd) 16: 81 (79) -2 17: 79 (77) -2 18: 64 (63) -1 19: 60 (57) -3 21: 71 (67) -4 22: 82 (69) -13 23: 80 (84) +4 Washinton Nationals (-25 Wins, 24th) 16: 90 (95) +5 17: 92 (97) +5 18: 92 (82) -10 19: 91 (93) +2 21: 81 (65) -16 22: 70 (55) -15 23: 67 (71) +4 New York Mets (-44 Wins, 27th) 16: 92 (87) -5 17: 87 (70) -17 18: 84 (77) -7 19: 84 (86) +2 21: 92 (77) -15 22: 88 (101) +13 23: 90 (75) -15 NOTES: Braves have three of only nine seasons in the entire sample with projected wins equals actual wins, so their +49 wins in only 4 seasons is all the more impressive. Their defense (+89 DRS, 10th) and bullpen (+19.78 WPA, 12th) have both been contributors, but their hitters +51.22 WPA (2nd) is probably the main driver. Numbers in parentheses are net wins, but in terms of deviation from zero the Phillies and Marlins were two of the most accurately projected teams at 27 and 29, or about 4 wins of deviation per season. LOLMets at the end. If their outlier 2022 didn't save them they'd be fighting with the Angels for last. Should also be noted they came in at -142 DRS and -0.54 bullpen WPA, both 25th.

AL WEST Houston Astros (+41 Wins, 5th) 16: 88 (84) -4 17: 90 (101) +11 18: 100 (103) +3 19: 98 (107) +9 21: 89 (95) +6 22: 91 (106) +15 23: 89 (90) +1 Seattle Mariners (+36 Wins, 6th) 16: 82 (86) +4 17: 82 (78) -4 18: 78 (89) +11 19: 75 (68) -7 21: 74 (90) +16 22: 80 (90) +10 23: 82 (88) +6 Texas Rangers (EVEN MONEY, 15th) 16: 79 (95) +16 17: 82 (78) -4 18: 77 (67) -10 19: 71 (78) +7 21: 70 (60) -10 22: 75 (68) -7 23: 82 (90) +8 Oakland Athletics (-7 Wins, 18th) 16: 79 (69) -10 17: 77 (75) -2 18: 78 (97) +19 19: 85 (97) +12 21: 84 (86) +2 22: 69 (60) -9 23: 69 (50) -19 Los Angeles Angels (-52 Wins, 30th) 16: 81 (74) -7 17: 83 (80) -3 18: 83 (80) -3 19: 82 (72) -10 21: 85 (77) -8 22: 83 (73) -10 23: 84 (73) -11 NOTES: The Astros are almost as good as beating the projections as they are at beating a trash can, but all jokes aside they also put up +345 DRS (1st) and +29.77 bullpen WPA (7th) so they fit the mold. The Mariners are the first big projection beaters to break the fielding/relief mold with a decent +21.27 bullpen WPA (11th) but -49 DRS (19th), The Angels couldn't be anymore hilarious. Projected between 81 and 85 wins every single year and then underperform those middling projections seven of seven years while running a Top 6 to 8 OD payroll every year.

AL CENTRAL Cleveland Guardians (+12 Wins, 9th) 16: 88 (94) +6 17: 94 (102) +8 18: 96 (91) -5 19: 97 (93) -4 21: 82 (80) -2 22: 77 (92) +15 23: 82 (76) -6 Minnesota Twins (-13 Wins, 21st) 16: 78 (59) -19 17: 75 (85) +10 18: 83 (78) -5 19: 85 (101) +16 21: 88 (73) -15 22: 82 (78) -4 23: 83 (87) +4 Chicago White Sox (-25 Wins, 25th) 16: 81 (78) -3 17: 68 (67) -1 18: 65 (62) -3 19: 72 (72) 0 21: 86 (93) +7 22: 87 (81) -6 23: 80 (61) -19 Kansas City Royals (-47 Wins, 28th) 16: 78 (81) +3 17: 76 (80) +4 18: 71 (58) -13 19: 70 (59) -11 21: 78 (74) -4 22: 75 (65) -10 23: 72 (56) -16 Detroit Tigers (-50 Wins, 29th) 16: 81 (86) -5 17: 82 (64) -18 18: 70 (64) -6 19: 68 (47) -21 21: 72 (77) +5 22: 77 (66) -11 23: 72 (78) +6 NOTES: Looks like the ALC is thee worst division when it comes to underperforming their projections with only Cleveland at +196 DRS (4th) and +41.53 bullpen WPA (2nd) coming out on the positive end while KCR (-159 DRS, 26th | +1.41 bullpen WPA, 21st) and DET (-410 DRS, 30th and +3.84 bullpen WPA, 20th) being two of thee biggest duds in MLB. Royals have one of the most consistent projected win ranges coming in between 70 and 78 every year.

AL EAST Tampa Bay Rays (+43 Wins, 4th) 16: 81 (68) -13 17: 81 (80) -1 18: 76 (90) +14 19: 84 (96) +12 21: 83 (100) +17 22: 85 (86) +1 23: 86 (99) +13 New York Yankees (+20 Wins, 7th) 16: 82 (84) +2 17: 79 (91) +12 18: 94 (100) +6 19: 100 (103) +3 21: 95 (92) -3 22: 91 (99) +8 23: 90 (82) -8 Boston Red Sox (+5 Wins, 13th) 16: 89 (93) +4 17: 91 (93) +2 18: 93 (108) +15 19: 96 (84) -12 21: 85 (92) +7 22: 86 (78) -8 23: 81 (78) -3 Baltimore Orioles (+2 Wins, 14th) 16: 78 (89) +11 17: 80 (75) -5 18: 76 (47) -29 19: 61 (54) -7 21: 65 (52) -13 22: 63 (83) +20 23: 76 (101) +25 Toronto Blue Jays (-20 Wins, 22nd) 16: 84 (89) +5 17: 86 (76) -10 18: 84 (73) -11 19: 76 (67) -9 21: 87 (91) +4 22: 92 (92) 0 23: 88 (89) +1 NOTES: Tampa Bay at +37.52 bullpen WPA (5th) and +181 DRS (8th) were the best in the division at beating their projections by a wide margin. Yankees bullpen was a little better (+40.24 WPA, 3rd) but their fielders weren't quite as good (+73 DRS, 14th). Orioles overall +2 is hardly indicative of their roller coaster ride with three of only seven total seasons of plus or minus 20 wins in the entire sample. Last two years at +45 wins they are +69 DRS and +10.76 bullpen WPA, both 7th in MLB. From 2017-21 when they were -54 wins vs the projections they came in at -159 DRS and -10.51 bullpen WPA, both 29th. Blue Jays rank did pretty well in both defense (+77 DRS, 13th) and bullpen (+27.96 WPA, 9th) but weren't able to leverage that into beating their projections.

I hate to start a project like this with a predetermined idea coloring the investigation, but my premise with a bias towards watching the Brewers more than any other team, is that defense and bullpen performance (which are among the most difficult to project) go a long way toward explaining over or under performance relative to the projections. Here are how some of the biggest over and under achievers performed in those areas over the 2016-23 time frame... THE GOOD MIL (+58 Wins) +242 DRS (4th) | +41.55 bWPA (1st) LAD (+50 Wins) +326 DRS (2nd) | +39.88 bWPA (4th) ATL (+49 Wins) +89 DRS (10th) | +19.78 bWPA (12th) TBR (+43 Wins) +181 DRS (8th) | +37.52 bWPA (5th) HOU (+41 Wins) +345 DRS (1st) | +29.77 bWPA (7th) NYY (+20 Wins) +73 DRS (14th) | +40.24 bWPA (3rd) COL (+18 Wins) +165 DRS (9th) | +4.51 bWPA (19th) CLE (+12 Wins) +196 DRS (5th) | +41.53 bWPA (2nd) THE UGLY LAA (-52 Wins) -9 DRS (17th) | -4.68 bWPA (27th) DET (-50 Wins) -410 DRS (30th) | +3.84 bWPA (20th) KCR (-47 Wins) -159 DRS (26th) | +1.41 bWPA (21st) NYM (-44 Wins) -142 DRS (25th) | -0.53 bWPA (25th) CHW (-25 Wins) -264 DRS (29th) | -0.29 bWPA (24th) WAS (-25 Wins) -118 DRS (24th) | -7.96 bWPA (28th) MIA (-21 Wins) +38 DRS (15th) | -11.59 bWPA (30th) THE OUTLIERS TOR (-20 Wins) +77 DRS (13th) | +27.96 bWPA (9th) SEA (+36 Wins) -49 DRS (19th) | +21.27 bWPA (11th) CHC (-5 Wins) +289 DRS (3rd) | +29.29 bWPA (9th) I'm not saying that defense and bullpen performance are the only thing when it comes to beating (or getting beat by) the projections, but I think there is enough signal in the noise to say that they play a pretty significant role in the whole process. Before I get into the divisional breakdowns, here is the overall split of the individual team seasons grouped by variation from zero in terms of projected vs actual wins... (0): 9 (+/-1): 12 (+/-2): 13 (+/-3): 14 (+/-4): 24 (+/-5): 16 (+/-6): 15 (+/-7): 13 (+/-8): 14 (+/-9): 8 (+/-10): 12 (+/-11): 8 (+/-12): 9 (+/-13): 8 (+/-14): 2 (+/-15): 7 (+/-16): 11 (+/-17 to 19): 8 (+/-20 or more): 7 Overall, if I'm mathing this right, I get an average margin of error about 8 wins per season in either direction. Here are the individual divisional breakdowns...

Saw that the Brewers ZiPS projections are getting released over at FanGraphs later today, and since there was neither Bucks nor Badgers nor Golden Eagles games this evening it seemed like as good a time as any to dig into how the Brewers have done compared to the projections during the Stearns, and now Arnold era. Spoiler alert, it's pretty pretty good. Luckily, FanGraphs historical playoff odds (which use a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS) go back to the 2016, so I rounded off every team's projected preseason win total from there and then compared that to their actual win total for that season. 30 teams times seven full seasons equals 210 individual seasons in the sample. I will break off each division into their own separate post below to space out the details a little bit, but first I'll lay out some of the information I found most interesting putting this all together....

Three things projections struggle the most with are defense and relief pitching (because they are more volatile year to year), and young players (because they have a limited MLB track record to project from). A big reason the Brewers have consistently beat their projections over the last seven years is they have regularly fielded top end defenses (+249 DRS from 2017-23, 3rd), and bullpens at 36.0 rWAR (5th) and +35.85 WPA (2nd) over that same stretch. This year they’ll be relying on a number of young players too which will further muddy the waters. FanGraphs Playoff Odds uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS, here are their Brewers preseason projected win totals for every full season from 2017-23, with their actual win total that year in parentheses after… 2017: 70 (86) 2018: 80 (96) 2019: 81 (89) 2021: 83 (95) 2022; 90 (86) 2023: 86 (92) So five out of six seasons beating the projections by at least six wins with +54 cumulative wins over the projections during that run. The one year we didn’t beat the projections our bullpen collapsed, finishing 17th in WPA. I think it’s safe to say whatever internal projections the Brewers front office utilizes are a little more precise than the publicly available ones.

Chapman at 4/80 on FanGraphs was from their crowd sourcing. Ben Clemens had him at 5/120 in their Top 50 article. Combine that with the 6/150 MLBTR prediction and the range is pretty wild. Probably the largest of any FA this winter. If he would sign for 4/80 I could see the Brewers being interested given their run prevention mindset and the likelihood that average is probably the ceiling for Black and Wilken’s 3B defense. Problem is his glove has fallen off to the tune of +78 DRS and +48 OAA over his first 4,955 innings at 3B compared to +14 DRS and +5 OAA over his last 2,558 innings. His bat also cratered at 205/298/361 (84 wRC+) from May 1st onward last year, though his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percent were all elite on his StatCast page.

Think that’s a pretty safe assumption at this point. Have to imagine the already started only going to get worse RSN situation would be a mitigating factor to any potential sale discussions since it introduces quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to projecting future revenues.

This FanGraphs link does a really good job breaking down the unconventional means by which Ramirez has gone about racking up the singles. Lots of cool stuff in there, but one interesting note is he has been among the best pinch hitters in MLB for his career. Since 2019 there are 88 players with at least 50 PH PAs with Harold coming in at .393 BA (2nd) and 157 wRC+ (7th). Another interesting name at the top of the leaderboard was Tyrone Taylor at .357 BA (4th) and 205 wRC+ (2nd). But the 2019-23 min 50 PAs Pinch Hit King has been currently unsigned old friend Ji Man Choi at .421 BA and 224 wRC+.

Harold Ramirez’s own career is a pretty good example of how certain attributes are stickier year to year, while others are prone to much more variance. From 2019-21, he had a 4.0 BB%, 18.2 K% and .134 ISO over 818 PAs. From 2022-23 he had a 4.7 BB%, 17.6 K% and .126 ISO over 869 PAs. Pretty close across the board. Big difference came in his BABIP. 2019-21 was only .315, which shook out to a .271 batting average and 92 wRC+. 2022-23 was up at .354, which shook out to a .306 batting average and 123 wRC+. Even over his two recent “good” years you can see the diminishing returns of his skill set. Among 201 players with at least 750 PAs from 2022-23… His .354 BABIP and .306 BA are both 5th, but with a 4.4 BB% (198th) and .126 ISO (167th), his 123 wRC+ only ranks 46th. Throw in -22.0 DEF (176th) and his 3.0 WAR ranks 125th of the 201 player sample.

His average is good, no doubt, but he doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power either. His .130 isolated slugging is 23% below league average and lines up with guys like Andrew Benintendi (.128) and Whit Merrifield (.132). His value is pretty much entirely dependent on hitting singles. He also has pretty wide platoon splits at 275/314/404 (99 wRC+) in 1,103 PAs vs RHP compared to 323/363/453 (129 wRC+) in 470 PAs vs LHP. So given no defensive value and middling performance vs RHP, his ideal usage would probably be as a DH only vs LHP.

No thanks. Can't field (-13 DRS | -11 OAA in the OF and -6 DRS | -4 OAA in only 278 innings at 1B) and never walks (4.4 BB% ranks 199th of 202 batters with at least 1,500 PA from 2019-22). His profile is entirely dependent on his batted ball results.

Mets signing Sean Manaea for 2/28. Joins Severino (1/13), Bader (1/10,5), Jorge Lopez (1/2), Joey Wendle (1/2), Michael Tonkin (1/1) and Austin Adams (1/800K) among Stearns MLB free agent acquisitions so far. Also looks like former Brewers farmhands Victor Castaneda, Cam Robinson and Cooper Hummel have landed minor league deals from the Mets.

Pretty nuts deal. FG had 3/45 and MLBTR was at 4/80 for their predictions. Teoscar has some pop (99 HR since 2020 ranks 17th), but pretty crazy L/R splits at 161 wRC+ vs LHP compared to a 112 wRC+ vs RHP. Only a 105 wRC+ overall last year, but still was making loud contact with barrel and hard hit rates in the top 10-12% of MLB. Have to imagine under the Dodgers tutelage he gets back up around the 133 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22.

Of course it wouldn’t cripple the franchise, but $14M is almost 12% of a $120M payroll. If Hoskins wasn’t able to recapture his past level of performance, that would be a waste of finite resources which would limit the ability to make other moves, yes. The most recent multi year big money drains for the Brewers were Braun (4.8 WAR for $75M from 2017-20), Yelich (4.2 WAR for $48M from 2020-22) and Cain (1.0 WAR for $35M from 2021-22). That combined $158M represented about 28.7% of the Brewers $550M in OD Payroll from 2017-22. The combined 10.0 WAR they got for that investment represented about 4.44% of the Brewers 225 combined position player and pitcher WAR from 2017-22.

As the smallest market in Capitalist MLB, the Brewers ability to eat financial mistakes is considerably smaller than other teams. One bad long term FA contract could hinder the Brewers ability to compete for multiple seasons. I’d imagine both the 2021 and 2022 Brewers could have been better off if they didn’t have LoCain making $35M for 1.0 WAR. Free Agency is the least efficient use of funds in MLB, the Brewers need to maximize efficiency given their geographic and economic realities.

Wiemer, maybe. Bauers, unlikely. The better answers to that question would be Jackson Chourio and Tyler Black, who are both pretty exciting and difficult to overlook. Last year Adrian and Tyrone combined for 2.2 WAR, this year they project for 1.5 WAR. That kind of production shouldn’t be difficult to replace. Just last year we got 2.5 combined WAR from unheralded/maligned pick ups Rea and Perkins at the same positions.