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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    If Matt Arnold does his job well enough that he is offered top of industry compensation from an organization with larger revenue streams, then the next couple years are looking pretty bright for Brewers baseball.
  2. sveumrules
    Just like no one realistically had the DBacks in the WS before the season, no one had Counsell to the Cubs. Baseball has an infinite capacity to surprise, which is why its pretty much the best.
  3. sveumrules
    ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!?
  4. sveumrules
    “an absolute necessity” Holy hyperbole, Heyman. Like what happens if he doesn’t pick NY? Do they get relegated to the International League or something?
  5. sveumrules
    Rea got 4.9 runs of support per game started, second on the team. Houser: 21 GS | 5.0 R/GS Rea: 22 GS | 4.9 R/GS Woodruff: 11 GS | 4.9 R/GS Peralta: 30 GS | 4.8 R/GS Burnes: 32 GS | 4.7 R/G Miley: 23 GS | 4.3 R/G Teheran: 11 GS | 2.8 R/G Despite the Brewers offense being below average overall (4.49 R/G vs 4.62 R/G league average), only Miley and Teheran especially received below average run support over the course of the season. Take out the 31 runs the Brewers scored in Teheran's 11 starts and they come out at 697 runs in the other 151 games, or 4.62 runs per game, exactly average.
  6. sveumrules
    Brewers set a franchise record for opening day payroll in 2022. By the time the various in-season and deadline deals were accounted for, Spotrac had their year end payroll a couple million higher in 2023 than it was to end 2022. As long as the money is re-allocated elsewhere over the next five months, no pennies were pinched in this transaction.
  7. sveumrules
    Good to see the Bucks hold on tonight, but I think there are a few things contributing to the uneven start. Giannis had his knee cleaned up this summer, so his basketball activity was limited and he is working his way into shape as the season goes on. Lillard was a late acquisition & Stotts abrupt departure is now going to elongate whatever getting to know each other period because… …it appears AG doesn’t have much of a scheme. Bud may have had his limitations, but he came in and the Bucks won their first seven games (by 111 combined points) and didn’t lose two in a row until their 63rd/64th game of the season. This definitely ain’t that.
  8. sveumrules
    Miley was great last year, but he was hurt/ineffective in each of 2022 and 2020. The last time he put up back to back good seasons was 2018/19 at age 31/32. He‘ll be 37 in a week and change. Brewers medical staff obviously knows more than this internet yokel, so if they are cool with bringing him back I’ll cross my fingers for another 20 some starts, 120 some innings. If Wade finds an offer more to his liking elsewhere I’ll wish him the best (unless it’s in the NLC) and hope the Brewers FO can find a good use for the $9M saved.
  9. sveumrules
    Dodgers won 100 games last year with Lux hurt all season, I’d imagine they would trade him for Burnes. Question is, how much interest would the Brewers have in Lux? Doesn’t have much MLB run at SS (502 inn. | +1 DRS | -4 OAA), but has been plus at 2B (1,346 inn. | +16 DRS | +8 OAA). His “breakout” in 2022 was 471 PAs of 275/346/399 (114 wRC+) that shook out to 3.0 WAR. Still only 26 years old heading into 2024, but those 41 HR he hit during his 2018-19 prospect ascent are getting farther away in the rear view mirror. Has three years of control with a projected Arby’s around $1M for year one. I’d prefer a theoretical Burnes headliner to be a pitcher with more team control, though I’d assume in this scenario Adames is also dealt (could target pitching there) which would leave Brice and Gavin to battle it out for SS/2B.
  10. sveumrules
    As of now, with the Brewers OF depth and Chourio’s age/limited time in AAA, I would guess they value the extra year of control to be gained from holding him back a couple months over the potential pick they might get by having him on the OD roster. If they are serious about giving Jackson a shot to break camp with the team in 2024 they almost have to deal one, maybe even two OF. Lining it up by service time after Yelich/Chourio… MLB: Yelich / Chourio / Taylor / Mitchell AAA: Wiemer / Frelick / Perkins That AAA outfield put up 3.7 WAR in 2023, more than nine MLB teams could manage from their entire OF groups.
  11. sveumrules
    Yeah, definitely think Gasser is ahead of Ashby in the pecking order by virtue of health. Miley has a $10M mutual option which might make sense for both sides to exercise since Wade won’t likely make much more than that on the open market and seems to like it here. Would also imagine if they deal one of Taylor, Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick from the OF depth that a SP could be a priority in that return. Burnes / Peralta / Miley / Houser / Rea / Gasser would be a pretty solid top six with internal depth options like Ashby (wild card, could end up in bullpen), Carlos Rodriguez, Evan McKendry (if added to 40 man or not picked in Rule 5) and Jacob Misiorowski at some point, plus any kind of trade acquisitions or low dollar vet signing, the hopeful next Miley, Rea, etc.
  12. sveumrules
    On 9-16-95 the Brewers were in Toronto for the 5th game of a season long ten day road trip. Plenty of time to bury a body and still be ready for first pitch at 7:08 PM on the 22nd. But yeah, obviously the whole thing is a lark. Hoffa’s buried in the basement of the Alamo.
  13. sveumrules
    Rea has language in his contract which made him an outright free agent, so he wasn’t beholden to Arbitration deflating his salary.
  14. sveumrules
    Singleton spent his entire age 19 season in A+ at the bottom of the defensive spectrum with no base running value. When Hiura was 19 he was still at UC-Irvine, also with no defensive or base running value projected in his future. Gomez was a toolsy CF at least, though he spent his whole age 19 season in A ball and never put up the kind of power numbers as a prospect that Chourio has (while being two whole levels higher at the same age). No prospect is any kind of guarantee, but these guys don’t seem like particularly relevant comps for Jackson (who still doesn’t turn twenty for four months) when considering things like age relative to league, defense/base running, scouting consensus, etc.
  15. sveumrules
    Chourio is obviously his own tier. I’ve got the next tier ordered as Wiemer (power potential) Frelick (highest floor) Mitchell (injury issues) I’d imagine Arnold & associates will probe different teams valuations of these three, and pounce if they find an offer they like. Perkins and Taylor are both solid 4th OF options, so I’d guess one of them is moved in a more marginal trade if the FO can’t find a bigger deal for one of the three younger prospects.
  16. sveumrules
    Tyler Glasonw signed in August of 2022 for 2 years and 30 million coming off 212 IP of 66 ERA- | 68 FIP- from 2019 to 2022. Woodruff has 595 IP of 69 ERA- | 72 FIP- since 2019. If the Brewers don't sign him, someone else almost assuredly will even with the knowledge he is unlikely to pitch in 2024.
  17. sveumrules
    Right, teams aren't going to pay up for 7.5 fWAR Burnes from 2021 when he's been at 4.6 and 3.4 fWAR the last two seasons. His rWAR has been a little more consistent, 6.3 to 5.3 to 4.8 rWAR from 2021 to 2023. Williams has been heading the opposite (aka the good) direction, with his WPA climbing from 2.73 to 3.46 to 4.09 from 2021 to 2023. I would guess teams value Burnes around 5-6 WAR for one year versus Williams at say plus 7-8 WPA over the next two years.
  18. sveumrules
    The gap in wins between the divisions is much more telling than the ordinal ranking. Especially when 5th place is 8 wins away from 4th, 34 wins away from 3rd and 58 games away from 2nd compared to 143 games away from 6th. If MLB front offices believed Counsell's credentials were propped up by the NLC to the extent you are implying they wouldn't be pursuing him (and maybe even offering something approaching industry leading compensation) in the first place.
  19. sveumrules
    Division Wins Since 2018... ALE: 2290 NLW: 2218 ALW: 2194 NLE: 2168 NLC: 2160 ALC: 2017 The NL Central has been much closer competitively with the NLE (8 game difference), ALW (34 games) and even the NLW (58 games) during Counsell's tenure than it has with the AL Central (143 game difference).
  20. sveumrules
    From 2018-2023 Brewers are 6th in wins in MLB, Cardinals are 9th so they've had some pretty good direct competition. Cubs were still spending big when the Brewers had their success in 2018 and 2019. Reds (22nd) and Pirates (26th) have been bad over that stretch but nothing compared to the dregs of the ALC with KCR (30th), DET (29th) and even CHW only 19th. Yet CLE is still twenty wins behind the Brewers over that stretch, the Twins are 44 wins back. If divisional strength was such a large factor you'd think CLE/MIN would be ahead of MIL/STL, but the opposite is the case.
  21. sveumrules
    2018 rotation was 20th by FIP based WAR. Games Started were Jhoulys Chacin (35), Chase Anderson (30), Junior Guerra (26), Brent Suter (18), Wade Miley (16), Freddy Peralta (14) and Zach Davies (13). Luckily the defense put up +121 DRS (2nd in MLB) so their runs allowed based WAR (15th) was a little more respectable. 2019 rotation was again 20th by FIP based WAR and 16th by runs allowed based WAR. Rotation didn't break out for a full season until 2021 (2nd in both fWAR and rWAR), they regressed in 2022 (13th in both fWAR and rWAR) then bounced back somewhat this year (13th in fWAR but 4th in rWAR) but again were somewhat bailed out by the defense with +68 DRS (2nd).
  22. sveumrules
    17/17 on free throws and zero turnovers. Who was the last closer they had like this? Maybe Ray? He had a 13/13 FT and 1 TO game in 2001.
  23. sveumrules
    I don’t believe the tools available to attempt to judge manager performance are anywhere near good enough to say anyone is thee best or definitively Top 3. The main points in favor of Counsell being considered among the better managers in the game would be his regular season success facing a significant payroll disadvantage and the fact that he is clearly coveted within the industry. His lack of postseason success is ten games spread out over six years. Not a very reliable sample. Counting game 163, Counsell started his postseason career 7-3. Turns out those ten games had minimal predictive power over his next ten postseason games. Just like his last ten will likely have minimal predictive power over the next ten. That the Brewers have played the 8th most playoff games in MLB since 2018 speaks way more to Counsell’s perceived managerial ability, or teams wouldn’t be pursuing him and maybe offering him top level compensation in the first place.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, the most interesting angle to the whole Counsell situation to me is that it probably will be an indicator as to which direction the offseason is more likely to head. If he's coming back, have to imagine that lowers the chances of Burnes/Adames/Williams being dealt, whereas him leaving would give Arnold a little more leeway to deal those guys and do a soft reset with a new manager.
  25. sveumrules
    A grown man exercising his freedom to work where he pleases would hurt so much? I hope Counsell finds happiness no matter which decision he makes. If he chooses to manage elsewhere, I’ll look forward to Arnold getting to pick a new skipper. If he returns, cool, we keep one of the best managers in the game. I’ve got the whole thing as a win win no matter how it shakes out.
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