sveumrules

Also noted in the MLBTR column that Mitchell's return timeline is 4 to 6 weeks.

He's pitched four out of six, or three out of four days depending how you want to slice it up. Mar 29, Mar 31, Apr 2, Apr 3. It's early in the season, everyone should theoretically be at their freshest and there is an off day tomorrow.

Corbin Carroll was 21 when he was in AA.

Nice bounce back inning from JBB.

CHOO CHOO CHOURIO

Realmuto & Contreras The Elder got those AAVs as free agents. Contreras The Younger has three seasons and 158 games before he reaches free agency. So the math would come down to take around $100M guaranteed now (which would be a record for a catcher with his service time) or roll the dice on staying healthy and productive for another three years and 158 games with the most he could likely command upon reaching FA being something not too far north of the 5/115 JTR signed for in 2021, maybe 6/150 tops.

Not a whole lot of scouting reports I could find on Satchell, but here is about an eight minute video from the ACL last year. Listed at 5’8” and 200 lbs with shaky defensive stats (11 passed balls and 49 SB with only 6 CS in 200 innings behind the plate) his bat is probably going to have to do the heavy lifting barring major improvements behind the plate. Good news is he has been up to the task so far with a 15.9 BB% | 22.5 K% and 317/430/455 (131 wRC+) batting line over 151 PAs in the ACL.

Any shoulder injury is scary stuff (especially when it’s to a strong armed catcher’s throwing shoulder), but it sounds like Quero’s initial diagnosis is about as positive as it could get all things considered. As swelling subsides they could find more damage or he could have a setback during recovery and working his way back to playing strength, but hopefully this just ends up being a couple month absence to start the year and he’s able to come back and finish out the season strong.

Don’t think they’d need to go all the way up to Fresh Prince length/money to extend William. Sean Murphy signed for 6/73 heading into his first year of Arby’s and brother Contreras got 5/87.5 as a free agent. I’d guess something in the range of 6/90 or 7/110 would convince William to forego FA.

With all the full season rosters out, thought it might be a good time to do a quick summation of how many Brewers international signees are at each level… MLB (2) Abner Uribe, Jackson Chourio AAA (2) Harold Chirino, Jeferson Quero AA (3) Ernesto Martinez, Eduardo Garcia, Carlos Rodriguez (OF) A+ (11) Patricio Aquino, Alexander Cornielle, Stiven Cruz, Edwin Jimenez, Yerlin Rodriguez, Jadher Areinamo, Gregory Barrios, Jesus Chirinos, Eduarqui Fernandez, Luis Lara, Jheremy Vargas A (14) Daniel Corniel, Yorman Galindez, Yujanyer Herrera, Osbriel Mogollon, Jeison Peña, Jesus Rivero, Manuel Rodriguez, Blayberg Diaz, Juan Baez, Miguel Briceno, Daniel Guilarte, Luis Castillo, Reidy Mercado, Yophery Rodriguez Believe that is everyone from the roster graphics. Obviously Quero’s injury and how Yophery handles his aggressive assignment are the two big storylines, but another interesting one to follow will be which pitcher from the A+ group is the first to break through to Biloxi.

Pretty aggressive assignment for Alejandro Rodriguez straight to A+ as an undradted free agent who didn’t exactly show out in his brief ACL time last year.

Gotta feel for Shuckers pitchers when Darrien Miller gives them the best chance at nabbing potential base stealers… Wes Clarke (35 SB | 4 CS in 2023 at AA) Darrien Miller (80 SB | 18 CS in 2023 at A+) Andy Yerzy (35 SB | 7 CS career at AA) Can Lamar Sparks catch?

Interesting draft class with two 2B and then two 1B atop the rankings currently and only one SS among the Top 20.

About $65M of that is for guys no longer on the team (Scherzer, Verlander and McCann), but that still leaves around $260M in active player payroll. "Names" on long term deals are Lindor ($34M), Diaz ($21.25M), Marte ($20.75M), Nimmo ($20.5M), Senga ($15.67M), and McNeil ($10.25M). That's like $112.5M for six guys. Brewers payroll is $110M for 26 guys. Then they've got a bunch of eight figure one year deals with Alonso ($20.5M), Manea ($14.5M w/ opt out), Quintana ($13M), Severino ($13M), Martinez ($12M), Bader ($10.5M). That's like $83.5M for six more guys. Pirates have a payroll of $84M for 26 guys. Then they've got a tier of another ten guys in the seven figures that are all set to hit FA after this year with Narvaez ($7M), Raley ($6.5M), Houser ($5.05M), Ottavino ($4.5M), Diekman ($4M), Fujinami ($3.35M), Smith ($2.25M), Wendle ($2M), Lopez ($2M). That's like another $32.5M, which could be framed as about half of Oakland's payroll or one Giancarlo Stanton. Cot's contracts has them at only $141M in commitments for 2025, so Stearns should have a chance to make more of a mark on the team next offseason.

First weekend of games in the books, so thought it'd be interesting to see how much the projections (via FanGraphs) have moved around in a tight NL Central race... PRE-SEASON STL (0-0) 83.3 Wins | 33.3% WinDiv CHI (0-0) 82.3 Wins | 26.7% WinDiv MIL (0-0) 80.3 Wins | 18.1% WinDiv CIN (0-0) 79.0 Wins | 13.2% WinDiv PIT (0-0) 77.5 Wins | 8.8% WinDiv APRIL FIRST STL (1-3) 82.7 Wins | 28.3% WinDiv MIL (3-0) 81.9 Wins | 23.0% WinDiv CHI (1-2) 81.7 Wins | 22.4% WinDiv PIT (4-0) 79.7 Wins | 14.1% WinDiv CIN (2-1) 79.1 Wins | 12.2% WinDiv Nothing too major, it's only three four games after all, but the projected win spread for the division has tightened from 5.8 wins top to bottom down to a 3.6 win spread, with the spread for Division odds tightening from 24.5% top to bottom down to a 16.1% spread. PECOTA over at BPro has the five teams with a little more separation from top to bottom... APRIL FIRST CHI (1-2) 83.0 Wins | 31.4% WinDiv STL (1-3) 81.9 Wins | 25.2% WinDiv CIN (2-1) 81.4 Wins | 22.9% WinDiv MIL (3-0) 79.2 Wins | 14.9% WinDiv PIT (4-0) 75.2 Wins | 4.6% WinDiv

Win Probability Added Leaders (& Laggards) FRIDAY Freddy Peralta (+.242) Abner Uribe (+.086) Joel Payamps (+.085) Trevor Megill (+.078) Christian Yelich (+.187) Jackson Chourio (+.124) Rhys Hoskins (-.173) Willy Adames (-.081) SATURDAY Abner Uribe (+.086) Elvis Peguero (+.072) Rhys Hoskins (+.323) Willy Adames (+.164) Jake Bauers (-.115) Hoby Milner (-.031) SUNDAY Colin Rea (+.186) Bryan Hudson (+.152) Willy Adames (+.182) Oliver Dunn (.+.097) Rhys Hoskins (-.219) Sal Frelick (-.089)

UPDATE!! Uribe 108 saves Payamps 54 saves

First 3-0 start since 2018 (that was a pretty fun year)

Matt Arnold + $110M >>> David Stearns + $324M

Agree that Hall is going to be a work in progress throughout the season, my only real hope is that he stays healthy enough for say 25 GS | 115 IP and I’d take whatever results come along with it. Think the concern over his fastball velocity might be a lil overblown given the early season weather and starter vs reliever effort levels. Was also reminded of this blurb from Matthew Trueblood’s ST coverage breaking down how Hall’s heater doesn’t necessarily require elite velocity to be an effective pitch… I don't like to default to Stuff+ or PitchingBot, a pair of models designed to boil down the quality of a given offering to a single number using data about release point and movement. I think pitching is much more nuanced and interesting than that. I do find it fascinating, though, that those two models disagree sharply about Hall's fastball. Somewhat famously, multiple outlets who put scouting (non-quantitative) grades on players gave Hall an 80 (the very top of the scale) to the lefty's heater. PitchingBot, which is on the scouting scale (20-80), comes fairly close to affirming that, at 68. It ranked Hall's as the 20th-best fastball in baseball last year, of 727 qualifying pitchers. Stuff+, though, is much less impressed. That number is scaled to 100, where that figure is average and higher is better. Hall comes in at just 101, above average but far below any standard for excellence. He ranks 232nd in fastball Stuff+. I bring this up because, when you watch Hall, it's not hard to see what the scouts saw when they slapped that high grade on him. The fastball explodes on the hitter. It's just not easy to put a finger on why that is. I looked up Hall's percentile ranks in many categories, among lefties who threw at least 200 four-seamers, for 2023. As it turns out, while he doesn't excel in terms of sheer movement or sheer velocity, he's extraordinary in many other regards. We're certainly used to elite fastballs grades being given to fastballs with elite velocity, and failing that, we at least expect something weird to be going on in terms of horizontal or vertical movement. Hall is more subtle than that. It's a weird horizontal angle, but also a low release point, which gives him an extreme vertical approach angle, too. His very good extension lets the raw velocity play up, and he changes speeds on the heat much more than most pitchers do. That's an especially intriguing tidbit, for such a young pitcher. In the context of a short Cactus League outing, it's impossible to distinguish adding and subtracting on the fastball from tiring in a second inning of work, but I thought he seemed to be doing the former, not the latter, on Sunday. Changing speeds and giving hitters such a tricky look makes up for a lot of other things, and with Hall's good (though not dominant) power, it becomes a deadly cocktail in a hurry. In a short outing Sunday, he showed everything from 93.7 MPH to 96.9 on the fastball, with accompanying changes in spin rate. That touch might be what sets the pitch apart.

What injuries did Quero have before his freak one to start this season? Going through his game log it looks like he missed one week two times in 2022 and had absences of one and three weeks last year, that seems about par for the course for a catcher. If you think 95 games played by a teenage catcher in his first full pro season stateside is a sign of fragility you might need to recalibrate your expectations, or dig a little deeper for context.

Bucks hold on for the first win of the season sans-Lillard after losing the first five games he didn’t play this season. Another mark in the “as Dame goes, the Bucks go” column along with… 28-6 when scoring 25+ 26-4 when shooting 45%+ 21-5 when making 4+ threes 21-5 with 8+ assists 16-4 with 1 or zero turnovers team best +12.7 on/off Maybe moreso than any other league the NBA is a story driven league. If somehow Giannis manages to lead the Bucks over the Celtics (who have been the most dominant RS team since peak Golden State) in the ECF, then tops Jokic & Nuggets in the Finals, all while securing Dame his first ring and Doc his second with a decade and a half in between…well, that would definitely be some kind of story.

Whoops, good catch. Paints his appearance in a different light for sure. Downgraded from “dominant” to “effectively wild” in the mental filing cabinet.

Sounds fall 4-2 for the second day in a row. Tyler Black (2-5, 3B), Vinny Capra (1-4, BB), Owen Miller (1-4, 2B, BB), and Patrick Dorrian (2-4, 2B) all reached twice while Wiemer chipped in an RBI double. Harold Chirino (1.1 IP | 1 H | 3 BB) and Enoli Paredes (1 IP | 1 K) had scoreless outings.

But did they all smack LHP in the minors? Mitchell 2021 817 OPS vs RHP (205 PA) 732 OPS vs LHP (63 PA) Mitchell 2022 847 OPS vs RHP (256 PA) 768 OPS vs LHP (87 PA) [Mitchell smacked RHP, LHP less so) Turang 2021 711 OPS vs RHP (368 PA) 705 OPS vs LHP (128 PA) Turang 2022 767 OPS vs RHP (399 PA) 781 OPS vs LHP (204 PA) [not much R/L split in the minors, though debatable that he really smacked anyone. 610/465 OPS split in MLB] Frelick 2021 840 OPS vs RHP (119 PA) 1054 OPS vs LHP (33 PA) Frelick 2022 890 OPS vs RHP (396 PA) 865 OPS vs LHP (166 PA) [best combination of smacking and minimal splits, but followed it up with a 722/569 OPS split at the MLB level in 2023] I don’t have a problem platooning any of these guys until they demonstrate they can stay healthy (Mitchell) or hit RHP at the MLB level (Frelick/Turang).