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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Last time Giannis played as many as his current 2,394 regular season minutes was 2016-17, his age 23 season. Last time Lillard played as many as his current 2,402 regular season minutes was 2019-20, his age 29 season and I believe he got a four months off in the middle of that season. Brook is still a couple hundred minutes short of last year’s total, but by the time the season is over he’ll likely end up with his most minutes since 2015-16, his age 27 season. Good news if everyone can make it to the playoffs healthy is even with all the struggles BBREF has the Dame Beas Midds Giannis Brook lineup at +15.4 pts/100 over 593 minutes on the floor together which stacks up pretty well with the most played lineups for the two title favorites… BOS: White Holiday Brown Tatum Kristaps (+12.9 pts/100 | 580 mins) DEN: Murray KCP MPJ Gordon Jokic (+14.0 pts/100 | 883 mins)
  2. sveumrules
    Bauers with some big ball and Turang with some small ball.
  3. sveumrules
    It wasn’t just the back half of the bullpen, and it wasn’t just last year, the Brewers pitching staff as a whole has beat their FIP every full season since Stearns and company got here… 2016: 4.10 ERA | 4.37 FIP 2017: 4.00 ERA | 4.24 FIP 2018: 3.73 ERA | 4.01 FIP 2019: 4.40 ERA | 4.46 FIP 2021: 3.50 ERA | 3.72 FIP 2022: 3.83 ERA | 3.92 FIP 2023: 3.73 ERA | 4.21 FIP
  4. sveumrules
    Myers was primarily a starter in AA last year, so my guess would be him.
  5. sveumrules
    Looks like they have it up at the Brewers official MLB roster page.
  6. sveumrules
    I don't see it as a midpoint of reasonable expectations either, was just outlining a way that the team could end up around that range. If the starting pitching matches the worst rWAR of the Stearns/Arnold era (7.1 in 2016) and the bullpen notches their worst year since Hader blew up in 2022 (+1.68 WPA), and the offense doesn't make any improvements then it's more like 90 pythag wins, minus 9 wins from SP, minus 10 wins from RP and offense stays the same for something like 71 wins.
  7. sveumrules
    Over the seven full seasons that FanGraphs historical preseason projections are available the Brewers have come in an MLB best +58 Wins, an average of about eight extra wins per season. So 86 wins with an 80 win FanGraph projection is well within the realm of possibility.
  8. sveumrules
    FanGraphs projects the Brewers rotation for 11.9 WAR this year. Last year they posted 11.2 FIP based WAR which only takes into account their K, BB, HR and IFFB numbers. Once the defense (+68 DRS, 2nd in MLB) entered the equation, they came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR. By that math, the rotation projects around four wins or so worse than last year. And that is with a projected 4.39 FIP/4.22 ERA (-0.17) for the group. Last year that FIP/ERA gap for the starters was over twice as large at 4.34 FIP/3.94 ERA (-0.40). If the defense works their magic again that would mitigate things even more. If the offense improves to mediocre and puts up an even 100 wRC+ that would be an improvement of 61.4 batting runs, or about six wins, from what they contributed last year with a 92 wRC+. The bullpen is unlikely to repeat their historic performance (+11.73 WPA), but if they are able to come in around 2018 (+5.65 WPA), 2019 (+5.22 WPA) or 2021 (+5.90 WPA) levels that would shave say another six wins off of last year. So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.
  9. sveumrules
    Here are the Brewers 13th/14th ranked player by PAs for each month of the season last year... Apr: Caratini (36) Perkins (14) May: Voit (20) Brosseau (19) Jun: Winker (32) Tapia (25) Jul: Anderson (29) Taylor (18) Aug: Anderson (21) Perkins (5) Sep: Perkins (31) Wiemer (22) Would imagine he doesn't get more than one start and a couple two tree pinch hit/runs per week.
  10. sveumrules
    Here are all thirty teams grouped by their lowest single season win total over the last six full seasons... LAD (92) HOU (90) MIL (86) NYY (82) TBR (80) BOS (78) CLE (76) MIN (73) ATL (72) LAA (72) STL (71) CHC (71) NYM (70) SEA (68) TOR (67) PHI (66) SDP (66) SFG (64) CIN (62) CHW (61) PIT (61) TEX (60) COL (59) MIA (57) KCR (56) WAS (55) ARI (52) OAK (50) DET (47) BAL (47) Whatever happens in 2024, the run of consistent success the Brewers have been on is pretty impressive. Six straight full seasons of at least 86 wins doesn't come around often. I'll be pulling for a seventh straight.
  11. sveumrules
    MiLB career numbers… Hiura (1,608 PA) 8.8 BB% | 23.6 K% Adames (2,681 PA) 12.5 BB% | 22.9 K% Urias (2,571 PA) 10.8 BB% | 13.5 K% Brinson (3,194 PA) 8.2 BB% | 26.2 K% Black (955 PA) 16.6 BB% | 18.3 K% Black has a way more patient approach at the plate than all those guys and has made more contact than all but Urias throughout their respective minor league careers. Their batting mechanics might share some similarities but it’s a whole different plate approach.
  12. sveumrules
    No doubt TT has more pop, but Perkins walks more with a 13.7 BB% last year compared to a 3.3 BB% for Taylor. That's how Blake ended up with a .326 OBP compared to only a .267 OBP for Tyrone.
  13. sveumrules
    His name is Blake Perkins. Last year, he posted 1.2 WAR in 168 PAs. Tyrone Taylor came in at 0.8 WAR in 243 PAs,
  14. sveumrules
    Who is the 4th OF if Perkins is sent down?
  15. sveumrules
    Ortiz has a 327/383/521 (128 wRC+) batting line over 504 PA in AAA, I don’t think he has anything left to prove there. Only way to find out if he can hit MLB pitching is to give him consistent PAs at the big league level.
  16. sveumrules
    Order since the last Freddy start has been… Fri 3/22: Peralta Sat 3/23: Miley 2 IP (Ross 5 IP) Sun 3/24: Hall Mon 3/25: Rea Tue 3/26: Ashby (listed as the probable on MLB) Obviously Hogg knows more than me, but looks like Rea would be lined up for the HO currently. Also plenty of room to move guys around with the early season off days FRI & MON. Could even throw Freddy on four days rest for the HO if they’re feeling really saucy. Something to keep an eye on too is Junis hasn’t pitched since 3/16 with his outing skipped last Friday on account of a sore shoulder. Could be an IL candidate to open the season if he doesn’t get in the last ST game tomorrow.
  17. sveumrules
    Played 68 games in the minors plus 28 games in MLB for a total of 96 games in 2022. But yeah, only 187 games in three full seasons since being drafted is a lot of lost development time.
  18. sveumrules
    186-107 (.635 W%) record, two B10 regular season championships, and six out of eight NCAA tourneys made seems like an above average résumé to me. I’m not saying Gard is some irreplaceable coaching savant, but there is a lot more room for downward mobility than there is for upward mobility from the Badgers current position as a consistent B10 contender and regular tournament team.
  19. sveumrules
    Looks like the Brewers front office isn’t the only one who prefers Winker over Hiura as Jesse has made the Nationals roster after hitting 324/479/459 this spring.
  20. sveumrules
    Last year’s rotation was only Top Ten on account of the defense behind them with their 11.2 FIP based WAR ranking 12th. Throw in the +68 DRS from the fielders and the rotation’s 15.8 runs allowed based WAR came in 4th. 2022 rotation wasn’t Top Ten in anything. Even with 77 GS from Corbin, Woody and Freddy they still finished 13th in both fWAR (11.4) and rWAR (12.0). 2021 was the only full season during the Brewers recent run of success where they had a legit dominant rotation with their 20.2 fWAR and 22.3 rWAR both ranking 2nd. 2018 and 2019 rotations were both 20th by fWAR (8.3 and 8.5 respectively), but middle of the pack by rWAR at 11.2 (15th) and 9.9 (16th). I don’t doubt the rotation will take a step back from last year’s results, but their peripherals weren’t that great to begin with and the defense that put them over the top is still here so it should be mitigated somewhat. I’d guess the 2024 rotation ends up more middle of the pack like the 2018/19 versions. If they do drop all the way to the Bottom Ten it will be their first time finishing that low since 2016.
  21. sveumrules
    JD Martinez to the Mets for $12M. MLBTR reports the breakdown as $4.5M this year then $1.5M each year from 2034-38.
  22. sveumrules
    Only a 23.5 K% for Keston this spring too, which is more in line with his AAA strikeout rates from the last couple years. Hopefully he rakes in Toledo and gets an MLB shot somewhere this year.
  23. sveumrules
    Looks like that was January 11th according to Cot's.
  24. sveumrules
    Going to need a larger sample from everybody, but so far the various metrics have been least impressed by Mitchell... Wiemer (1,026 innings) +5 DRS | +6.6 UZR | +8 OAA Frelick (446 innings) +6 DRS | +4.5 UZR | +7 OAA Perkins (400 innings) +11 DRS | +7.9 UZR | +7 OAA Mitchell (332 innings) +4 DRS | +2.2 UZR | +2 OAA
  25. sveumrules
    Obviously pitcher wins are like a novelty stat at this point, but Snell has 35 Ws in his two CY campaigns and 36 Ws combined in his other six seasons. Does a pretty good job summing up how inconsistent he has been year over year. 2018 (180 IP) 46 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 143 K%+ | 110 BB%+ | 65 HR9+ | 82 BABIP+ 2019-22 (413 IP) 95 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 139 K%+ | 119 BB%+ | 87 HR9+ | 106 BABIP+ 2023 (180 IP) 54 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 142 K%+ | 154 BB%+ | 61 HR9+ | 86 BABIP+ Pretty incredible how consistent his league adjusted K rate has remained over his two CY seasons and the four in between. Walk rate really went crazy this last year though. He’s a safe bet to be about 20% better than average by FIP, but yeah, the two CY seasons essentially came down to getting crazy BABIP/HR luck compared to the four intervening years where his lack of command resulted in higher than average BABIPs and an ERA that didn’t live up to his K and HR rates. Good new is SF is one of the best pitchers parks out there, though the Giants haven’t been able to leverage it into actual run prevention recently with a 3.94 ERA vs a 3,67 FIP the last two seasons, the 5th largest wrong way difference over that stretch with their -79 DRS (28th) likely playing a part.
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