sveumrules

Roster Resource has them at $122M projected for OD 2024 compared to $119M for OD 2023 and $126M to end last season, so they’re right in that range already. I’d guess there’s room for one more FA in the five to nine million range if they could pull one of Urshela, Turner or Belt as a veteran hedge for the young position players.

Houser and Taylor combine for about $7M in 2024 salary. Every team has a budget, so who would you have dealt instead to save that same $7M?

Yeah, biggest difference between Wagner and Nathan is that Wagner has the second highest league adjusted K rate in MLB history (min. 900 IP). The incomparable Dazzy Vance put up a redonkulous 225 K%+ over a Century ago, but after him it's Wagner (190), Nolan Ryan (183), Satchel Paige (183), Randy Johnson (176), Sandy Koufax (173), Lefty Grove (170), Dizzy Dean (169), Bob Feller (168), Pedro Martinez (168), JR Richard (166), etc. Other advantage Billy has on Joe are that all 903 of his IP came as a dominant reliever. From 1996 to 2008, outside of an 81 ERA+ in 2000, Wagner's lowest ERA+ was 141. That is a dozen dominant relief seasons. Nathan has 761 IP of stellar but not quite as dominant as Wagner relief work, plus 162 IP as a below average starter at the beginning of his career which drags down his career totals. He was only a top tier reliever for nine seasons.

Assuming Contreras and Haase start in Milwaukee, Clarke will be behind Quero, Austin Nola and Brian Navarreto for catching reps in Nashville to open the year. Of course, the Brewers could always coach up Clarke's defense like they have with other guys (though those other guys were already established MLB catchers who had been primary catcher all through the minor leagues too), but reading between the lines I don't believe they would have signed Nola or re-signed Navarreto if they intended to give Clarke significant time behind the dish at Nashville.

Jake Bauers has moved down the depth chart.

Salary saved re-invested and then some.

I’d have no problem with that either, I just don’t think Boras and Hoskins want to commit to DH only or primary DH sometimes 1B on the defensive spectrum so soon because it eats into future earning potential. Coming off surgery, and with the opt out, they are going to want to get 120-130 games at 1B to show he’s healthy and deserving of a three four year deal. That’s why I think guys like Turner or Belt, who are already in the primary DH sometimes 1B phase of their career are more likely than Santana if the Brewers decide to add another bat.

I’d guess the deal is contingent on Rhys being the primary 1B, so probably no Santana. Assuming $17M per year that brings payroll to around $122M versus $126M to end last year using the numbers on roster resource. Probably enough room to add a “legit” DH like Turner or Belt (Joc or JDM likely too rich) if they want to push things a little more in the last year with Burnes/Adames.

Wes Clarke has zero PAs above AA. Wilken has 25 PAs at AA. Non-roster invitation to spring training or not, neither of these guys is in a position to impact the MLB club on Opening Day. At some point later in the season? Sure, maybe, but that should be viewed as more of a bonus outcome than an expected one. I certainly hope he makes it and is the starting 3B, but even Tyler Black isn’t a lock for the OD roster. There’s plenty of room in the org for Hoskins, Black, Clarke and Wilken.

I’m not a member myself, so can’t see the whole thing, but he has a LinkedIn page. Apparently he creates effective, impactful communication projects and events.

Yeah, Wes Clarke is a catcher like former Clancy #1 prospect Cooper Hummel is a catcher or former Clancy #1 prospect Ernesto Martinez is a CF. If Clarke (34 games at catcher) was viewed as a legit backstop he would have been closer to Quero (74 games at catcher) in games behind the dish at Biloxi. Instead he split back up duties with Nick Kahle (26 games at catcher). To say nothing of the huge discrepancy in CS% and scouting reports.

Not sure I'd have any other reliever as Hall worthy besides Wagner at this point. Obviously Mariano is a class of his own at 1233 IP | 46 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 53.6 rWAR | 38.6 fWAR | +55.76 WPA for his career. After that I'd have Wagner grouped in a tier with Hoffman and Smith... Lee Smith 1252 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 157 K%+ | 27.7 rWAR | 25.8 rWAR | +24.36 WPA Trevor Hoffman 1089 IP | 71 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 150 K%+ | 28.6 rWAR | 25.9 fWAR | +32.78 WPA Billy Wagner 903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 30.1 rWAR | 24.0 fWAR | +28.40 WPA On a per inning basis Wagner is closer to Mariano than these guys. That he has the highest rWAR and is ballpark on fWAR and WPA despite a 186 and a 255 IP deficit to Trevor and Lee is pretty remarkable really. I'd have Francisco in the HoVG tier with guys like Nathan, Papelbon, Kenley, Kimbrel, Aroldis, Quiz and Henke... Francisco Rodriguez 976 IP | 69 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 159 K%+ | 24.4 rWAR | 16.3 fWAR | +23.80 WPA Dan Quisenberry 1003 IP | 69 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 67 K%+ | 25.1 rWAR | 14.5 fWAR | +20.37 WPA Tom Henke 789 IP | 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 183 K%+ | 24.2 rWAR | 20.6 fWAR | +20.89 WPA Joe Nathan 761 IP | 59 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 165 K%+ | 25.9 rWAR | 19.5 fWAR | +30.73 WPA Jonathan Papelbon 709 IP | 58 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 151 K%+ | 22.1 rWAR | 19.2 fWAR | +28.11 WPA Kenley Jansen 813 IP | 64 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 169 K%+ | 22.3 rWAR | 23.4 fWAR | +24.82 WPA Craig Kimbrel 757 IP | 58 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 187 K%+ | 23.5 rWAR | 21.3 fWAR | +24.70 WPA Aroldis Chapman 698 IP | 62 ERA- | 57 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 20.5 rWAR | 21.8 fWAR | +20.67 WPA Here K-Rod has the massive edge in IP on the non-Quiz field, but isn't able to leverage it into any meaningful advantage in WAR or WPA because he just wasn't as good on a per inning basis. His FIP- being so much worse than everybody else except a 1980's sidewinding submariner who didn't strike anyone out is a pretty good representation of the frequent "heart attack" nature of Francisco's saves. Feel like this also does a nice job showing just how hard it is for a reliever to stick around and dominate long enough to put up HoVG, much less HoF numbers. Even if Hader were to double his career totals from age 23-29 over the next seven seasons from age 30-36 he'd come in at 776 IP | 60 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 186 K%+ | 25.6 rWAR | 22.6 fWAR | +30.80 WPA.

I like Dunn as a late bloomer upside play with a combo of patience, pop and wheels. Breakout at AA and in the AFL was nice, now he’ll have to keep it going in AAA. Scouting reports on his defense are less than stellar though. Sounds like his ceiling is maybe average at 2B. Will be interesting to see if the Brewers try him more at 3B and LF in Nashville than the Phils did last year…2B (89 GS) DH (23 GS) 3B/LF (2 GS each). He did play 3B for five of his eighteen games afield in the AFL, so a little more frequency there.

Bobby and Marjon isn’t enough salary going out to match. Would need to be Bobby, Marjon, Beasley and AJax to get there.

Looks like ACL play started June 5th last year, I would guess the Brewers hold him back from game action until then. That essentially gives him three months or so to get accustomed to pro ball in a more controlled environment with a chance to get his feet wet for a couple starts at Carolina to finish the season if all goes well. Starting him straight away in A ball would probably be a little aggressive given his cold weather background and age - doesn’t turn 19 until August. Yujanyer Herrera was the youngest pitcher at Carolina last year and he was a full year older than Knoth will be in 2024.

Portis + Patty C is pretty much the only combo of salary the Bucks have to match Murray’s number. Their only real trade-able draft asset is Portland’s 2nd rounder this year. Think the Hawks will have better offers than that.

Yeah, that Hader is still Top 3 in rWAR, WPA, K%+ and AVG+ since 2020 despite that atypical stretch in 2022 speaks to how dominant he’s been on either side of those struggles. Think I’d put Devin, Josh, Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz (assuming a return to form) in a tier of their own at the very top among relievers. Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays doesn’t have the elite peripherals of the other four with a “only” a 74 FIP- (15th) and 4.4 fWAR (13th) since 2020, but his 55 ERA- (4th), 7.1 rWAR (2nd) and +11.25 WPA (2nd) put him right up there in terms of run prevention and context dependent performance.

Yeah, if you narrow it down to 2020-23 (min 150 IP) Devin is pretty much tops across the board... 42 ERA- (1st) | 53 FIP- (2nd) | 177 K%+ (2nd) | 60 AVG+ (1st) | 8.1 rWAR (1st) | 6.8 fWAR (1st) | +12.24 WPA (1st) Only guy better than him in FIP- and K%+ is Edwin Diaz at 43 and 185. From 2020-23 Hader comes in at 63 ERA- (10th) | 64 FIP- (9th) | 174 K%+ (3rd) | 68 AVG+ (2nd) | 5.7 rWAR (3rd) | 5.3 fWAR (7th) | +7.52 WPA (3rd)

Congrats to Josh, well deserved. Even with a stinker of a 2022, and missing a the first couple months of 2017, he is far and away the best reliever in MLB since his debut (min. 250 IP)... 60 ERA- (1st) | 64 FIP- (3rd) | 186 K%+ (1st) | 63 AVG+ (1st) | 12.8 rWAR (1st) | 11.3 fWAR (1st) | +15.40 WPA (1st) So the reliever who strikes out the most guys and is the hardest to get a hit or score a run off of over the last seven seasons. Hader's 15.40 WPA over that stretch was actually 5th among all pitchers with only Scherzer, Verlander, Cole and deGrom topping his mark.

Because he has an extremely narrow skillset. The Good: Among 177 players with at least 800 PA from 2022-23, he comes in at .306 BA (5th) and 123 wRC+ (44th). The Bad: Among those same 177 players he comes in at 4.7 BB% (169th), .126 ISO (153rd), -22.0 DEF (153rd) and 53.6 GB% (6th). Add it all up and his 3.0 WAR comes in at 122nd among those 177 players with at least 800 PA from 2022-23. Steamer projects him for a 112 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR, ZiPS is less optimistic at 105 OPS+ and 0.3 WAR for 2024. To sustain even that middling level of production he has needed to run a ..354 BABIP (4th). Once that comes crashing down it's over.

The Packers defense allowed 350 points to be scored against them this season, 10th fewest in the NFL.

Among 137 SP with at least 250 IP over 2021-23, Cease comes in at… 97 GS (1st) | 527 IP (15th) | 131 K%+ (9th) | 120 BB%+ (128th) | 79 HR9+ (24th) | 83 ERA- (33rd) | 78 FIP- (16th) | 10.8 rWAR (24th) | 12.6 fWAR (8th) His K rate is tied with Woodruff over that stretch, his HR suppression is right between Bieber and Rodon, his ERA- is tied with Castillo, his FIP- is tied with Scherzer and Buehler, his rWAR is just ahead of Pablo Lopez, his fWAR is just behind Sandy Alcantara. That’s way better than a good #3 or #4 type pitcher, I’d say a solid #2 at worst. Reign in those walks, and get him a better defense (White Sox -151 DRS is dead last from 2021-23) and there is ace upside in there.

One of Mitchell or Wiemer makes sense given the OF surplus, but I wouldn’t want to include Black since that just creates a bigger hole at 3B for the MLB club in 2024. The Brewers internal evaluation of Arraez glove would likely be a big factor too. If they think he is a scratch defender at 2B like DRS does (+2 career), that’s probably fine next to Hoskins (-7 DRS | -11 OAA career) coming off an ACL. If they think Luis at 2B is closer to his OAA marks (-25 career), they might have him pegged as more of a 1B/DH only guy on the defensive spectrum.

If we’re holding Burnes, Adames, Williams to start the season I’d be fine with him as the 13th position player since they get minimal run anyway. Assuming a lineup of Contreras, Santana, Turang, Adames, Black, Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell and Yelich at DH, you can cover all eight positions with a bench of Haase, Monasterio, Perkins and still have one spot for a guy like Votto to pinch hit or spell 1B/DH occasionally. Even a washed Votto should be a big improvement over what we got from guys like Rowdy (78 wRC+), Winker (65 wRC+), Ruf (54 wRC+), Voit (53 wRC+) or Singleton (-8 wRC+) last year. Probably all moot anyway since I don’t see him signing with anyone but Cincy or Toronto.

Wow, that is some dubious voting. Sal Frelcik (1.4 WAR), Abner Uribe (+1.27 WPA), Blake Perkins (1.2 WAR) and Joey Wiemer (1.1 WAR) all handily out-performed Monasterio (0.4 WAR) last year. Garrett Mitchell was able to match that 0.4 WAR in 242 fewer PAs.