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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I think it pretty much all depends on what kind of offers they get for Burnes, Adames , maybe Williams. Using Cot's estimates they would have about $25M to spend this offseason to hit last year's OD payroll without trading anybody, That should be enough to buy a bat for 1B/DH and an arm for the rotation if they want to go that route. If they decide to re-tool or whatever, I could see a cut in spending for a couple years like they did in 2016-18 before building back up the when the next wave hits.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, but that 117 wRC+ over 483 PA in 2022 only shook out to 1.1 WAR because his defense (-9.5 runs) and base running (-4.5 runs) were so bad. Just seems like the generic 1B only kind of profile teams generally view as pretty fungible from a value standpoint. I guess he’s young enough to still overcome that, but when your mitt and wheels have you that far in the hole right outta the gate you pretty much need like a 130 wRC+ to even crack 2.0 WAR.
  3. sveumrules
    Jose Miranda put up a 57 wRC+ in MLB and a 74 wRC+ at AAA this year. Small samples but he has negative OAA at 1B (-4) and 3B (-6). His DRS is also negative at 1B (-6). Throw in -5.9 runs on the bases in his short career and dudes gonna need a 120 wRC+ to provide even a little value. Steamer is projecting him to “bounce back” to a 103 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR. At least Polanco can hit (119 wRC+), but he’s another guy that can’t field with -42 DRS at SS, -31 OAA at SS and -16 OAA at 2B. Really hope the Brewers wouldn’t even be interested in these guys, much less give up Wiemer and Henderson.
  4. sveumrules
    Was looking at Steamers for 2024 and was surprised how close Peralta and Burnes are projected on a rate basis… 3.67 ERA | 3.78 FIP for FP 3.70 ERA | 3.74 FIP for CB Of course Corbin has a better track record on the health front, so he’s projected for an extra 22 IP. Don’t think Freddy gets moved just because his surplus value is up in that range where teams are averse to dealing prospects ranked so highly.
  5. sveumrules
    They WILL be players in free agency, sure. Does that guarantee them anything in 2024 though? Three of the biggest players in FA last offseason were the Yankees (Judge/Rodon/Rizzo for $602M), Mets (Nimmo/Diaz/Verlander+ for $497M) and Padres (Bogaerts+ for $379M). All of them went from making the playoffs in 2022 to missing the playoffs in 2023 despite their FA expenditures.
  6. sveumrules
    They spent pretty appropriately from 2016-20 coming in at 6th, 6th, 4th, 3rd and 5th per Cot's OD payroll ranks. Of course to get back up to even 6th from 11th they would've needed to add another $50M last year, to crack Top Three they'd need to add another $70M.
  7. sveumrules
    Yeah, for me Tender Decisions are BBQ or ranch to dip them in. Maybe a good honey mustard.
  8. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like MLBTR had 6/150 and FanGraphs had 5/140 for Nola. No hometown discount for the Phils. ZiPS projects him for about 14 WAR over the seven years. Steamer likes him a bit more (4.2 WAR for 2024 vs 3.4 WAR from ZiPS) so maybe closer to 18-19 WAR on the high end.
  9. sveumrules
    There are 226 players with at least 1,000 PAs from 2021-23. Here's how Chapman stacks up... 1,824 PA (36th) | 110 wRC+ (93rd) | 11.7 WAR (30th) Very much a 3TO guy with a 139 BB%+ (24th) | 129 K%+ (213th) | 121 ISO+ (69th) | 133 FB%+ (5th) to go along with a 92 AVG+ (205th). Of course his big feature is his glove with +24 DRS (5th) +15.7 UZR (4th) and +21 OAA (5th) over that stretch, while he's also added sneaky value on the bases at +7.4 BSR (52nd). 6/150 MLBTR is projecting seems high, 5/120 FanGraphs is closer but still seems like a lot to pay for a guy who should probably hit 6th/7th in a good lineup. Steamer projects a 103 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR for 2024, which is maybe like 9 WAR over five years with standard aging curve. Anything over $100M feels likely to be an overpay.
  10. sveumrules
    Cot’s OD has them 29th, 30th, 27th, 27th and 29th counting back to 2019. 2011-18 they came in at 16th, 12th, 16th, 15th, 14th, 9th, 10th and 13th. Ballparking, it would probably take around $30M for them to jump up closer to 20th, or around $50M to crack into the teens.
  11. sveumrules
    Bucks starting to come together a little bit with a nice four game winning streak that included a revenge game at Toronto, an In Season Tournament win over the Hornets and then taking down Dallas last night on the B2B. After winning their first five games by 15 combined points with four losses sprinkled in, they have won the last four in the streak by 63 combined. Giannis looks to be rounding into shape nicely after an offseason with little basketball activity... First Seven Games 24.4 PPG | 9.0 RPG | 3.4 APG | .525 FG% Last Six Games (missed one) 36.0 PPG | 11.2 RPG | 5.6 APG | .676 FG% Dame has also put together his best run of the season over the last three games, hopefully a sign of things to come... First Eleven Games (missed two) 22.8 PPG | 4.8 APG | .370 FG% | .269 3P% Last Three Games 30.3 PPG | 10.0 APG | .463 FG% | .419 3P% On the season as a whole, despite the slow start, the offense has been humming (6th in ORtg). Have to imagine as familiarity grows between Giannis/Dame and Khris starts getting more minutes that they should easily finish inside the Top 5. Next steps for Griffin and staff need to be figuring out rebounding (currently 26th) and defense (currently 22nd).
  12. sveumrules
    The two years before acquiring Lind he hit 301/366/490 (136 wRC+). The two years before acquiring Bauers he hit 206/285/340 (75 wRC+). What exactly is giving you Adam Lind vibes?
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah. Top three Brewers are pretty easy at Yount (66.5 WAR), Molitor (56.0 WAR) and Braun (43.6 WAR). Gets a little murky after that with Lucroy (35.3 WAR, about 15 of which comes from framing), Cooper (29.5 WAR) next on the WAR leaderboard. Lots of people would have Prince in the convo for Top 5 on the strength of his 141 wRC+, but he only racked up 20.0 WAR on account of about 15 wins lost to baserunning/defense. If Chourio puts up something like 30 WAR over his six years of team control, I'd say that would be pretty pretty good.
  14. sveumrules
    Steamer projects Castellanos for a 101 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR for 2023 versus a 116 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR for Yelich in 2023. Castellanos might have some power, but that is it. His defense and base running kill his value. I view Yelich as incredibly unlikely to waive his NTC anyway, but if he did I would hope we eat as much money as possible to get the best prospect return instead of taking back a slightly less onerous contract for a worse player.
  15. sveumrules
    Have Brewers revenues gone through the roof at the same rate that player salaries have? Or is it primarily driven by a few teams at the top of the market with large revenue advantages over much of the league? Spotrac has the Brewers 19th in payroll for each of 2021, 2022 ($30M jump) and 2023. At worst it looks like they’ve been maintaining the status quo relative to the rest of the league. What level of spending do people believe would be more appropriate for the 30th largest market? To pass the White Sox for 15th they would have had to spend an extra $40M last year. An extra $65M would have got them over the Cubs for 11th. The Brewers won the 5th most games last year. The team with the 5th highest payroll (PHI) spent an extra $120M.
  16. sveumrules
    3/60 for 32 year old Castellanos coming off a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR the last two years. or 5/136.5 for 32 year old Yelich coming off a 116 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR the last two years. I’d rather just keep Yelich, considering he’s actually earned his money the last couple years.
  17. sveumrules
    The Brewers two highest payrolls in franchise history were the last two years. This is literally impossible to accomplish while being increasingly cheap.
  18. sveumrules
    The last few years? The Brewers 273-213 record (.562 W%) is the 6th best in MLB over the last three years. They won the division twice the last few years. Their record over the last six years (487-384 | .559 W%) is right there with the run from 1978-83 (518-400 | .564 W%) for the best multi year run in franchise history. That constitutes gaslighting? The three years before he bought the team they went 191-294 (.394 W%). The six years before he bought the team they went 406-564 (.418 W%). The twenty one years before he bought the team they went 1548-1783 (.465 W%).
  19. sveumrules
    Do they address the reasoning behind Garrett Mitchell being a born again prospect?
  20. sveumrules
    Thanks for the memories, Rowdy. Tied with JJ Hardy for highest postseason OPS in franchise history among 44 players with at least 10 PA.
  21. sveumrules
    Right, but now you’re just moving the goalposts again. First it was “real” money. Then you switched to “large”. Your original complaint was about slashing salary, which is objectively false. Of course the Brewers could spend more money, so could every team in MLB. The Brewers capacity to do so is much smaller though as thee literal smallest market in the league. Barring massive changes to MLB’s revenue structure, the Brewers are incredibly unlikely to ever run a “large” payroll.
  22. sveumrules
    Right, but they still traded for players making real money. They could have traded Wong for a package with no MLB salary commitments in return. Spotrac had the Brewers 2023 year end total salary higher than 2022. They didn't replace Renfroe directly (because they had a bunch of cheap rookie OF to try out), but they did end up reallocating his money elsewhere over the course of the season.
  23. sveumrules
    I'm not defending the club at all, I literally said we paid a steep price to acquire Bauers in an earlier post. I'm simply pointing out that is objectively impossible to run club record payrolls two years in a row while doing anything they can to slash salary and that they have traded for players making real money. Who are some players with a sufficiently large salary that you would like to see them trade for?
  24. sveumrules
    They traded for Jesse Winker and his $8.25M salary last year. In 2022 they traded for Hunter Renfroe and his $7.65M salary. The 2022 and 2023 year end payrolls were the highest in team history, literally impossible to accomplish while slashing salary.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, would be awesome if those 97 PAs with the Yankees AAA affiliate where he hit 359/485/897 (227 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts was indicative of some kind of change in approach/swing/true talent level, but this seems like kind of a steep price to pay to try and find out,
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