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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    They were similar last year, sure, but 2018-22 Rowdy at least put up 1533 PA of 104 wRC+. Bauers has 1398 PA of 83 wRC+ in his MLB career. Brewers must really like their lower level OF depth to deal all of Mendez, Avina and Sanchez over the last few days.
  2. sveumrules
    The options are agree on a one year deal, agree on a multi year deal, non tender or trade. I don’t think anyone wants a one year deal given Woody’s health situation. I don’t think anyone wants a non tender. So it comes down to multi year deal or trade. If a multi year deal can’t be reached, a trade for anything, even perceived pennies on the dollar is better than nothing.
  3. sveumrules
    Looks like Contreras finished 11th (highest vote 5th) and Devin finished 20th for NL MVP voting. Burnes finished 8th in NL CY with Bill Plunkett the OC Register putting him 2nd on his ballot.
  4. sveumrules
    Yeah. 68 ERA- in 2021, but with a 96 FIP-. Regressed to an 89 ERA- and 106 FIP- in 2022. Bottomed out at 125 ERA- and 114 FIP- in 2023. He is only one data point of many, but serves as a pretty good example to illustrate how FIP does a better job of predicting ERA than ERA does. Out of 137 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2021 he has actually been pretty good at limiting HRs (85 HR9+ | 36th) and decent at limiting walks (85 BB9+ | 64th), but abhorrent when it comes to striking guys out (74 K%+ | 128th).
  5. sveumrules
    Definitely being developed as a starter, but still questions about if he'll ultimately be able to stick in that role. Only ended up at 71.1 IP over his 20 GS in 2023, which all things considered probably went about as good as it possibly could have from a health standpoint with Jacob taking the ball pretty much every six days until getting shut down after his final dominant start with Biloxi mid-August. Would imagine the plan for 2024 is to start him back in the rotation at Biloxi and try to build those innings up over 100 this year with maybe some time in Milwaukee later in the season out of the rotation or pen depending on how everything shakes out with his innings totals and the Brewers level of competitiveness.
  6. sveumrules
    It's just one of those spots where there aren't enough top end guys, so once you get past a certain point there is a lot of sameness. Here is the list of guys who got at least 400 PA at 1B and posted a wRC+ over 110 in the process... Freeman (730 PA | 162 wRC+), Lowe (724 PA | 114 wRC+), Olson (720 PA | 160 wRC+), Walker (642 PA | 120 wRC+), Alonso (618 PA | 124 wRC+), Goldy (599 PA | 122 wRC+), Vlad (525 PA | 115 wRC+), Yandy (521 PA | 163 wRC+), Casas (482 PA | 126 wRC+), Noda (460 PA | 129 wRC+) and Wade Jr. (437 PA | 121 wRC+). Eleven guys. DH was even more barren with only six met the 400 PA | 110 wRC+ bench marks...Ozuna (582 PA | 143 wRC+), Ohtani (528 PA | 173 wRC+), JDM (472 PA | 136 wRC+), Soler (443 PA | 121 wRC+), Cutch (434 PA | 112 wRC+) and Turner (424 PA | 116 wRC+). That's essentially 17 good options for sixty 1B/DH spots. There just isn't anywhere near enough supply to meet the demand.
  7. sveumrules
    Dunn has one good year in AA. Moore’s one good year was as a sophomore at Arkansas. Hendry’s one good year was in the Complex leagues. All these guys are low probability dice rolls, but Dunn has had the most success at the highest level out of the three, so right now he’s got the most favorable outlook. Hendry has plate discipline and time on his side, but he’s a corner OF only prospect so he’s gonna need to run a 120 wRC+ to ever have any value. That’s a high bar to clear for someone who hasn’t shown much contact or power in over 700 PAs off the complex. Moore doesn’t look to have the defensive chops to play SS everyday in MLB, so his ceiling is likely a utility guy. After posting a 94 wRC+ in Wisco this summer he should probably start 2024 back at A+ for the Phils affiliate. Brewers get the safer bet (whose power potential also gives him the highest ceiling), while the Phils bet on their development team being able to turn one or both of Mendez/Moore into a Dunn calibre prospect before their 40 Man timelines are up.
  8. sveumrules
    While I like the idea of Yelich at 1B, especially his speed at what is typically a plodder spot, I think there are a couple obstacles. In the immediate term, Tyler Black. I’d guess they’ll try him at 3B out of the gate to see how he fares at MLB, with 1B as the fallback plan. Wilken could be in this corner IF mix soon too depending how next year goes. In more of a general sense, Yelich’s back. Theoretically it seems like 1B would require more bending over (for grounders) and more hitting the deck (diving for shots down the line or in the hole), which could increase the chances for aggravation. Hoskins would be a great fit, but I think his market will be too strong for the Brewers to be a serious contender. Could see Belt on a one year deal as the primary DH vs RHP, start once a week at 1B kind of guy.
  9. sveumrules
    Miller’s highest ISO in the minors was .192 and he played over 1,000 innings at shortstop on his way up. 7.6 BB% and 16.3 K% for his MiLB career. Dunn bats in the other box, and has shown more power, but less defensive acumen. 15.7 BB% and 28.1 K% for his MiLB career. Both play IF, but that’s about it for similarities.
  10. sveumrules
    He was 25 in AA this past season. He’ll be spending his age 26 season in AAA and maybe even MLB at some point depending how things go. Moore and Mendez have time on their side, but at this point they’re dreaming of achieving the kind of mediocrity that Dunn has put up to find himself on a 40 Man roster. Many were up in arms when the Brewers gave total unknown Blake Perkins (who spent most of his age 25 season at AA) a 40 Man spot around this time last year. He ended up chipping in 1.2 WAR as the 5th OF.
  11. sveumrules
    Looking at raw HR totals is misleading because of his correspondingly low PA totals. Power actually showed up in 2022. Posted a .182 ISO at A+ and a .162 ISO at AA in 2021. That jumped to a .242 ISO at AA in 2022 with 77 PA of 333/439/576 (173 wRC+). Showed it was no small sample fluke with 505 PA of .235 ISO in 2023 on an overall line of 271/396/506 (148 wRC+).
  12. sveumrules
    Encouraging in that it provides additional context with regards to him being old for his level last year. Sure, he was 25 in AA, but he also only got 277 combined PAs at A/A+ spread out over 2019-21 before making the jump.
  13. sveumrules
    FanGraphs article on the trade. Encouraging: Dunn has a lot of late bloomer indicators that make the age relative to level maybe a lil less concerning: 2019 draftee from Utah, missed year in 2020, dealt with injuries in 21/22. Discouraging: sounds like he is a pretty marginal 2B only type of defender.
  14. sveumrules
    Lillard has historically been a slow starter. .571 TS% career in November vs .588, .595, .595 and .589 career marks in December through March. Was even more pronounced last season with a .533 TS% in November followed by .635, .670, .688 and .614 marks for December through March.
  15. sveumrules
    On November 8th 2022, the Diamondbacks claimed Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins. I'd imagine some DBacks fan somewhere inevitably proclaimed them World Series bound after the transaction was made. That DBacks fan was right.
  16. sveumrules
    No doubt. Just using Brewers prospects as an example, Burnes would probably require a headliner like Black. Has had success at the higher levels, but has some questions about his glove keeping him in the back half of the Top 100 mix. Could probably get Glasnow for a guy like Lara. Similar, maybe even greater upside than Black, but also more risk being farther away from MLB and without a ton of physical projection. Guy that could be in the Top 100 himself in a year, or could get exposed the higher he climbs the ladder and flame out along the way.
  17. sveumrules
    Burnes is healthier, and like $10M cheaper. Would think any team with enough payroll room to pursue Burnes would be viewing Glasnow as a back up plan.
  18. sveumrules
    Pretty much what I was going to say. Can't see a case putting him any higher than Henderson. Only guy in the 17-20 range I'd maybe consider over Dunn is O'Rae just because I love his skillset so much, but don't think he's ever going to develop any meaningful power whereas Dunn has already flashed some at AA.
  19. sveumrules
    Old for the level, sure, but Dunn just put up a 148 wRC+ at AA. I doubt Moore or Mendez ever come close to that kind production.
  20. sveumrules
    Maybe @Brock Beauchamp has stuff that old archived somewhere? Searched posts with Counsell in the title and looks like the oldest hit was April 2021.
  21. sveumrules
    Yup. Contreras (5.4 WAR), Miley (3.4 rWAR), Payamps (+3.01 WPA), Peguero (+1.42 WPA), Wilson (+1.32 WPA), Rea (1.3 rWAR), Perkins (1.2 WAR), Canha (1.0 WAR) Miller (0.9 WAR), Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Santana (0.7 WAR) and even Anderson (0.5 WAR) all came out in the positive to the tune of about 20 wins versus Winker (-0.8 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR), Singleton (-0.4 WAR), Tapia (-0.3 WAR) costing only a couple wins on the negative side. Even stretch run IGT whipping boy Chafin ended up with a dead nuts even zero point zero WPA on the season. What will offseason two yield? I don’t know, but there are many viable possibilities all across the buy sell spectrum and I’m excited to see how it all plays out over the next few months. Jackson Chourio is hitting 391/472/565 in winter league, that means way more than anything happening in this thread.
  22. sveumrules
    Nobody quit anything. Neither Stearns nor Counsell were beholden to Milwaukee. Did Sabathia or Fielder quit when they signed elsewhere as highly regarded free agents?
  23. sveumrules
    Just like Mendoza with the Mets, Espada with the Astros, Vogt with Cleveland. For all his altruism, Counsell’s record deal doesn’t seem to have had much impact on the managerial market yet.
  24. sveumrules
    Would have preferred a young unknown first timer from outside the organization, but still better than a Shildt, Mattingly or Ross type so shrug emoji. The organization obviously has a better idea about Murphy’s capabilities than I do, so guess I’ll hope they got it right. The player moves they end up making the rest of the winter are going to have a way bigger impact on how 2024 plays out than this hire (whoever it was) anyway.
  25. sveumrules
    Ouch. Hopefully means more minutes for Andre Jackson Jr,
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