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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Both are deserving, but I would probably lean Bellinger at this point just because he was so much worse than Yelich over the preceding seasons. -
The stadium district is responsible for the AmFam repairs, not Mark A. If Yelich waived his NTC, and if the Brewers found a trade partner willing to take on his entire contract, I would hope that money saved would be re-invested in the payroll.
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2023 Minor League Transaction Thread
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Looks like Lara will be the second youngest player in the Midwest League after Ethan Salas. -
The Padres are perfectly positioned for the ALL IN offseason of ALL TIME. Hader, record setting reliever contract...check. Soto, record setting pre-FA extension...check. and, the coup de grace, OHTANI. That outlay would only set Seidler back like one point a couple two tree billion. Cohen would be so rattled.
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Yeah. Any talk of relocation at this point is just a negotiating tactic to garner headlines and play on casual fan emotion. The Rays stadium lease is up three years before ours, so it’s a lot more pertinent for a franchise like them who have way worse stadium and fan support situations, and even then they are still considered unlikely to relocate at this point.
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MLBTR article had these quotes which seem to communicate Mark A’s position… The Brewers want “Major League Baseball to remain in Wisconsin for the next generation and beyond,” says Rick Schlesinger, president of business operations for the team. Manfred said in May that he thinks “the Brewers are interested in a long-term relationship and an extension of the lease that’ll keep them here.”
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The last four full seasons their OD payroll ranks have been 20th, 19th, 19th and 17th per Cots. From 2007 through 2015 Cots has them 15th, 15th, 17th, 17th, 17th, 13th, 19th, 16th and 20th on opening day. The only time they went cheap in the last 15+ years was 2016-18 when they ranked 30th, 30th and then 26th in their NLCS year. The current $154M number on Spotrac would be a franchise record, I believe. Mark A & partners have consistently outspent their market size by a pretty considerable margin. Whatever investments they’ve made on the international and amateur side have also paid, and continue to pay dividends.
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Is it a problem? He has hired professionals to run his team who have done such a good job that Steve Cohen is preparing to shatter industry compensation records to lure them all away. Owner involvement isn’t always a good thing, Soup pitched great!!
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Jay Jaffe had an article detailing their collapse a few days ago. Basically stopped hitting (106 wRC+ through June 30 vs an 82 wRC+ since) and bullpen blew up (+1.31 WPA through June 30 vs an MLB worst -2.84 WPA since).
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Pretty crazy that the defending World Series Champs, who gave Jose Abreu 3/58.5 in FA, have to pick up our scraps for 1B, all while trying to catch the Rangers for the division lead. It’s almost like there aren’t sixty guys out there who can just roll out of bed and put up a 110 wRC+ no big deal to play 1B/DH for every team.
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They already have gotten better... First 68 Games (34-34): 86 wRC+ and 4.03 R/G Last 47 Games (27-20): 93 wRC+ and 4.57 R/G
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It all looked so innocuous to start with, but once Anderson threw off his glove and put his dukes up it got real, fast. I’d put my money on Rougned Odor or Nolan Ryan over either one, but JRam did dodge a couple shots and land a nice blind counter punch to Anderson’s chin that knocked him to the canvas, er dirt, so I scored it a 10-8 round for Jose.
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The one year all of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta were healthy with Williams/Hader in the pen they ran away with the division, but yes the offense went cold in the DS to the eventual WS Champs after scoring the most runs in the NL for three plus months after the Adames acquisition. 2022 the offense improved from 12th to 10th in runs scored, from 19th to 11th in wRC+, from 15th to 8th in WAR, a five win improvement. Unfortunately the rotation went from 2nd in rWAR (22.3) to 14th (13.0), minus nine wins there. The bullpen went from +5.90 WPA (5th) in 2021 to +1.68 WPA (16th) in 2022, another four wins lost. The offense wasn’t up to snuff for half of 2021 then three games in the NLDS, in 2022 the pitching wasn’t up to snuff regressing to the tune of about 13 wins or so. The offense has been limiting the team’s ceiling this year again, but all told it’s been about a 50/50 split between pitching and offense “foiling” the Brewers post-pandemic, though they’ve still got the 8th most wins in MLB and the most wins in the NLC since 2021.
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Among starting pitchers since 2020 it is essentially between Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler for who has been the best... Burnes: 562 IP | 67 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 17.1 rWAR | 16.6 fWAR Wheeler: 568 IP | 71 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 16.6rWAR | 17.6 fWAR Among relievers over the same stretch Devin Williams is tops in WPA (+10.49), rWAR (7.0) and fWAR (6.1) thanks to 183 IP of 42 ERA- | 54 FIP- dominance, and this after we traded away the guy that from 2017-21 was tops in WPA (+14.22) and rWAR (11.1) among all relievers thanks to 316 IP of 58 ERA- | 63 FIP-. Brandon Woodruff has been a starting pitcher since 2019. Even with the missed time in there, his 539 IP make him one of only 55 pitchers with even 500 IP over that stretch. Among that sample his rankings are 70 ERA- (3rd) | 71 FIP- (3rd) | 16.2 rWAR (11th) | 13.9 fWAR (17th). Just crazy stuff all around, when you really stop to think about it.
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Cubs are at 107 wRC+ (8th) and 5.14 R/G (5th), so offense has been driving the bus. They’ve also fielded well at +27 DRS (7th) and been good on the bases +8.9 BSR (4th). Rotation has been middle of the road at 7.1 rWAR (15th) while the bullpen has been slightly below average at -0.47 WPA (19th). BRef has Cubs at 11-13 in one run games and 26-14 in blowouts (5+ run difference) compared to 20-10 in one run games and 12-13 in blowouts for the Brewers. From there we can extrapolate the Cubs are 19-26 in games decided by two to four runs compared to 27-28 for the Brewers.
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FanGraphs ranked the prospects traded at the deadline... Bradley Blalock (#15), Justin Jarvis (#23), Jhonny Severino (#27), Evan McKendry (#45)
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Yeah, think the profile lands closer to Rea than Junk on the depth starter spectrum.
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Put me down for the Isaac Collins bandwagon. Not sure he needs to be forty manned or if would get plucked in the Rule 5, but there is a lot to like in the profile between the plate discipline, speed and switch hitting. Only real knocks would appear to be that he’s limited to LF/2B and a lil old for AA.
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Every POUR IT ON started with but a drip.
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Depending how the season plays out, I’ll probably have him at the end of the Top 20 with Logan Henderson. T2: Misio T10: Gasser/Rodriguez/Knoth T20: Henderson/Blalock
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Stearns to NY basically confirmed
sveumrules replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Maybe Mark A can get Cohen to pay the AmFam maintenance bill in exchange for letting Arnold out of his contract? -
Santana is about $2.4M remaining, Mets picked up his salary minus the min but Brewers are on the hook for Canha’s $2M buyout, Chafin is another $2.5M at about $1.8M left in salary plus a 725K buyout. Sending out Urias saved about $1.6M.
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Alex Jackson to Rays, Evan McKendry to Brewers
sveumrules replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
6.4 on BRef, 4.4 on FanGraphs for 2021-22. Looks like the main difference is defense, BR has him at +13 fielding/position adjustment for those two years versus -5.9 at FG, mostly driven by OAA hating his innings at SS (-11). -
Think that’s definitely part of it. Change of scenery for Luis, get a talented arm back, offset some of the salary they acquired.
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Except their level of performance has been changing, rising and falling throughout the season… First 19 games (14-5): 103 wRC+ Next 49 games (20-29) 79 wRC+ Last 39 games (23-16) 92 wRC+ The arrow has been pointing up since they bottomed out after what was a perfectly cromulent start to the season. How will the offense fare over the final 55 games? I don’t know. If they revert to hitting around a 79 wRC+, they’re cooked. If they revert to hitting around a 103 wRC+, that would help considerably. If they stick around the 92 wRC+ they’ve been posting the last six weeks, it’ll probably be a dog fight down to the wire.
