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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    For DSL arms I pretty much just keep an eye on age, K/BB ratio and what kind of role or promotion schedule the development staff has lined up for them to read between the lines. Don’t really start to get more detailed reports on stuff or footage until they get to the AZ or Carolina.
  2. sveumrules
    Edgardo Ordonez with his first stateside bomb and two BBs. Keep it going!!
  3. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense has stunk so far this year, their current 85 wRC+ would be thee literal very worst position player mark in franchise history. I thought looking at their batted ball profile might offer some insight into why they’ve been so bad. Let’s start with batted ball type… The Brewers GroundBall%+ of 104 is 6th highest in MLB. League average on ground balls this year is 243/243/266 (36 wRC+). The Brewers LineDrive%+ of 92 is 2nd lowest in MLB. League average on line drives this year is 705/700/918 (359 wRC+). Their FlyBall%+ of 99 is essentially average, but too many ground balls and a severe lack of line drives is a bad foundation. How about directionality? The Brewers have been about average going the other way with an Oppo%+ of 100. Their Pull%+ of 95 is 4th lowest. League average on pulled balls is 345/344/651 (169 wRC+). Up the middle, their Center%+ of 106 is 3rd highest. League average up the middle is 327/323/485 (118 wRC+). Similar to ground balls vs line drives, we again see the Brewers at fairly extreme points on the wrong ends of the pull vs up the middle scales. A large degree of the offenses WOAHs can be traced to underperformance from Adames, Winker, Tellez, etc, but could a flawed approach be putting Brewers batters behind the eight ball from the outset?
  4. sveumrules
    Luis Castillo making his 2023 debut tonight in AZ. Hendry Mendez and Tayden Hall also back in the lineup after injury absences.
  5. sveumrules
    Contreras definitely has a chance if they go with three catchers, though JTR has the edge in name recognition.
  6. sveumrules
    Getting close to that time of year...
  7. sveumrules
    Gasser was walking the world to start the season but has reigned it in recently… First seven starts…38 IP | 47 K | 25 BB | 4.74 ERA Last six starts…36.1 IP | 40 K | 5 BB | 3.22 ERA
  8. sveumrules
    Yeah, at this time last year the Phillies had 1.9% WS Odds, in 2021 the Braves were at 0.8% WS Odds on June 26, Nationals were a little higher at 3.4% on 6/26/19. On 10/20/2018, entering Game 7 of the NLCS, the closest the Brewers had been to the World Series in almost 40 years. FanGraphs had their odds of winning the World Series at nine percent.
  9. sveumrules
    No doubt this has been the longest stretch of mediocrity since Stearns and company took over. Since that franchise best 32-18 start last year they have gone 94-95, and that season plus of mediocrity we are currently mired in is only saved from being legitimately bad by this year’s 14-5 start. Zooming out for a second, what we’ve had as Brewers fans since 2017 has been more good than bad, the 7th most wins in MLB over seven seasons. But there are all kind of truisms that describe where we’re at now…all good things come to an end, and normally with more of a whimper than a bang. But it ain’t over yet either. The Brewers are still division favorites by both Vegas & the various projection systems, and this next month of games leading up to the deadline will be huge in determining if they’re going to keep whimpering along or maybe flip the script and set themselves up for a better chance to go out with some kind of bang.
  10. sveumrules
    I thought the Brewers opening last year a franchise best 32-18 was pretty inspiring, especially after laying goose eggs in the 2021 NLDS. Sure, finishing up the season 54-58 mootified the whole thing, but at least those first two months were exciting while they were happening. Outrage over Corbin Burnes and the missing 700K dominated the ST news cycle, but turning Ruiz into Contreras was generally seen as one of the more inspired moves earlier in the winter. Starting this season 14-5 was another burst of fun, going 26-32 since almost feels like deja vu all over again. Add it all up and despite all that’s gone wrong, the Brewers are right about where we thought they’d be almost half way through the season…on pace for around 85 wins and battling for the division lead, even if they maybe haven’t gotten there quite the way we thought they would and are currently battling the Reds instead of the Red Birds. No doubt this team has been doing more ebbing than flowing over the last 15 months but it hasn’t all been blah, and there is still plenty of time to maybe get that flow going again just in time for when it really matters. @edfunderburk what does the Bible say about “ye of little faith”? 🙏🙏
  11. sveumrules
    If teams believed that Hiura’s OPS over a minuscule sample at one specific position had any kind of predictive power, they would have picked him up off the scrap heap when he was DFA’d. That none of the other 29 teams took that chance indicates they all believe the same thing the Brewers FO did, that his 2022 results were likely unsustainable due to fluky BABIP, HR/FB% and K%.
  12. sveumrules
    After today his teams have a 373-264 record when he plays.
  13. sveumrules
    2021 cutter: 95.2 MPH | 2767 spin rate | 32.1 whiff% | 145 stuff+ | 105 location+ 2023 cutter: 94.3 MPH | 2644 spin rate | 24.9 whiff% | 126 stuff+ | 99 location+ Looks like the pitch has lost some of its raw effectiveness and Corbin has also been less precise with his command.
  14. sveumrules
    Not to mention that three of our actual competent hitters - Contreras, Anderson, Miller - were acquired by Arnold this offseason.
  15. sveumrules
    Looks like Freddy reverted back to a more traditional pitch mix for his start yesterday - 59 FB | 20 SL | 13 CU | 6 CH
  16. sveumrules
    Is it though? DH plate appearances since 2022… Cutch (360) Yelich (171) Winker (131) Hiura (96) Tellez (78) From there it drops down to Renfroe (29) Contreras (28) Voit (26) Ruf (24) Those are all pretty much bat only players and primary DHs. They just haven’t been delivering. Cutch, Winker, Hiura, Voit and Ruf account for 637 of the Brewers 997 DH PAs since 2022, so it’s been used much more by primary DHs than it has been to rotate position players for a rest.
  17. sveumrules
    Link Report says…YES
  18. sveumrules
    Definitely going to be a pivotal offseason. Will Horst run back a team that won the most games in the NBA then laid an egg in the playoffs (but with a hurt Giannis and understandably distracted HC to a team on an epic heater they rode all the way to the finals) and hope changing the coaching staff and minor tweaks around the edges will suffice? Its the path of least resistance and would likely still have the Bucks among the top two tree teams in the East and top half dozen or so overall in terms of Championship odds for next year. Or do they get creative and try to package some combo of Pat, Bobby, Grayson for either more of a true PG or an athletic wing defender to join Jrue, Khris, Giannis, Brook in the starting five?
  19. sveumrules
    From my understanding the Bucks are capped out so their only options are to resign Middleton or to sign and trade him, otherwise they lose his salary slot.
  20. sveumrules
    I’d say that tweet is overly dire as it includes a lot of bad performances - Turang (177 PA | 55 wRC+), Brosseau (78 PA | 75 wRC+), Taylor (78 PA | 8 wRC+), Voit (74 PA | 54 wRC+), Singleton (32 PA | -8 wRC+) and Ruf (30 PA | 54 wRC+) - that aren’t immediately relevant to what the Brewers offense will be like moving forward. The Brewers as a team have posted -39.4 wRAA, those six players account for -30.8 wRAA or about 78% of the team’s offensive underperformance at this point. In the near term guys like Adames (79 wRC+), Winker (63 wRC+), Tellez (89 wRC+) and Urias (79 wRC+) need to hit closer to their career norms. That’s the big one. Frelick, Hiura, maybe Black if they wanna get crazy are about the only hopes on the farm. Thats pretty much it until the deadline.
  21. sveumrules
    Braun 13-20 3486 PA | 120 wRC+ | 14.1 WAR | 2.43 WAR/600 PA Yelich 20-23 1682 PA | 110 wRC+ | 6.7 WAR | 2.39 WAR/600 PA Post-peak Braun hit better, but post-peak Yelich has fielded and run the bases better so their WAR/600 PA comes out about as close as it gets.
  22. sveumrules
    Right, the Brewers can’t hit (87 wRC+ | 25th) while STL can (106 wRC+ | 11th). Now let’s do the rest of the team. Defense MIL: +34 DRS (3rd) STL: -22 DRS (27th) Starting Pitchers MIL: 5.9 rWAR (9th) STL: 2.6 rWAR (24th) Relief Pitchers MIL: +4.26 WPA (1st) STL: -2.76 WPA (27th)
  23. sveumrules
    Welcome to the site. I’d think someone in that 12-17 range (Jarvis, Zamora, Wood, Adams) or so on the BF.com Top 20 would probably be needed to win the Turner sweepstakes if the Red Sox put him on the market.
  24. sveumrules
    He’s been working with the four pitch mix since 2021, so not sure if it was really the birth so much as maybe a tweaked version thereof. Here are his pitch percentages each of the last three years… FB: 53.1, 54.9, 53.3 SL: 26.4, 18.3, 20.8 CB: 10.9, 16.3, 14.0 CH: 9.7, 10.4, 11.9 Pretty consistent. Slider usage dropped off in 2022 in favor of more curves, while the change has been gradually thrown more. Here are the pitch values per 100 pitches over the last three years… FB: +1.40, +0.67, -0.21 SL: +1.14, +0.19, -0.86 CB: +2.43, +1.99, -0.35 CH: -0.90, +1.24, -0.61 Ouch. In 2021/22 he was positive on seven out of eight. This year all four pitches are getting negative results. Fastball, slider and curve all waaay down from 2021. I think the main thing is Freddy’s fastball losing effectiveness requires him to be more precise with his location, which has never been a strong suit. Here’s the resulting batted ball results over the last three years… BABIP: .230, .246, .286 HR/9: 0.87, 0.69, 1.65 Barrel%: 6.0, 3.5, 9,9 HardHit%: 27.7, 26.9, 31.6 Diminished stuff + poor command in the zone = nightmare batted ball profile.
  25. sveumrules
    Looks like StatCast has OF throwing data going back to 2020. Yelich average competitive throw has gone 79.4, 79.7, 81.8 and up to 85.0 MPH this year. His max velo throw has gone 83.8, 85.5, 88.1 and up to 95.0 MPH this year. Maybe his back has just been feeling better this year, maybe he made a concerted effort in the offseason to improve his arm strength, maybe some of both?
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