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Some candidates from a pure value standpoint would be someone like Alcantara, under control at 5/70 for ages 27-31 if the team option is exercised. Manoah has been among the best pitchers in MLB since his call up with five years of control remaining. Strider, Framber, McClanahan are other young ace calibre pitchers with lots of control remaining. Adley would be tops on the position player side. Already up and performing at an elite level playing the most difficult position on the diamond with six years of team control remaining. Guys like JRam, JRod, Acuna or Wander that have reasonable long term deals would fit the bill too. Don’t really see any realistic scenario where Chourio is dealt, though, even if he struggles at AA this year. It’s just exceedingly rare & takes the perfect combination of conditions (generational talent Soto stuck on going nowhere Nats) to see guys traded with that level of surplus value.

Right now the various projections have the bottom three in the NLC with the following win totals… FanGraphs CHI (78) PIT (76) CIN (71) 538 CHI (77) PIT (73) CIN (70) BPro CHI (76) PIT (73) CIN (70) I’d still be selling on both, but they aren’t that far behind the Cubs for 3rd and a number of teams beat (or underachieve) their projections by eight plus wins every season so it’s not too far out there. The Reds on the other hand…

Looks like both Zach Vennaro and Harold Chirino saw velocity bumps this spring and were added to the Brewers board over at FanGraphs with these reports… “Another Indy Ball find for the Brewers, Vennaro was signed after pitching in the Can Am League, and it took extra time for his career to get off of the ground because of the pandemic. After toiling away in the mid-minors for a couple of years, Vennaro showed a nearly three-tick velo boost during the spring of 2023, his fastball moving from 93-95 mph into the 95-98 mph range. To call his delivery funky doesn't do it justice. If Adam Cimber's delivery is George Porter Jr., Vennaro's is Les Claypool. He gets deep into his rear leg and strides open as his arm swings with huge length all the way behind his body before he delivers from a sidearm slot. He's throwing 96 or so with huge tail and sink, and very little feel for location. Command issues and Vennaro's lack of a pitch to deal with opposite-handed hitters limits him to an up/down forecast, but he has uncommonly nasty stuff for that sort of role.” ”Chirino showed a velocity bump in the spring of 2023, working 94-97 with sink while mixing in a two-plane curveball in the 80-84 mph range. He looks like a quality up/down middle inning option.”

245 SB vs only 34 CS the last two years. At a certain point a catcher needs to be able to throw people out.

Giannis and Jokic are the two best players on the two best teams. Giving MVP to Embiid is a joke, really. Almost as bad as giving Smart DPOY last season. Finals MVP is all that matters now.

Their ranking already fell off last season, though the raw per game numbers bounced back above where they were the last time the team was truly non-competitive. Full season ranks… 2016: 16th (28,6K) 2017: 10th (31.3K) 2018: 10th (35.2K) 2019: 7th (36.1K) 2021: 10th (22.5K) 2022: 14th (29.9K) A lot will depend on how the team is playing, last years timing was pretty much the worst possible because they had the best start in franchise history then fell apart starting right when attendance normally picks up after school lets out & the mediocrity continued through dealing Hader and the end of the season. If they are in the race and make a move to buy at the deadline this year they should have no problem getting back over 30K per game and closer to Top Ten range. Get off to a bad start, deal some combo of Burnes, Woody, Adames at the deadline would probably tank attendance back into the bottom half of the league.

Both Carloses Rodriguezes on the same Shuckers squad…the singularity is upon us.

You think they went home after the game with the off day today? Or is everyone sitting around in their hotel rooms with this weather? Then throw in what looks like another weather day that could cancel Saturday. Play a doubleheader Sunday if it clears, or just make it up later in the season? Just kind of weird vibes/no rhythm all around to start a season. If only there was a stadium with a roof like 69 miles north or whatever.

Thought I’d start a thread to keep track of the various projection systems in one spot as the season goes on. After Brewers & Cardinals losses on Opening Day it looks like… BPro MIL: 86 W | 52% Div | 62% PO STL: 85 W | 39% Div | 53% PO 538 MIL: 86 W | 41% Div | 58% PO STL: 85 W | 38% Div | 55% PO FanGraphs STL: 87 W | 50% Div | 66.6% PO MIL: 85 W | 39% Div | 57% PO Rounded off the percentages but that FG playoff percentage for the Cardinals was a little too on the nose so I left it alone.

No, really. How long ago was 2015? It was "only" eight years ago, but what if I told you the two teams that met in the World Series that year entered the season with the 17th and 21st-ranked payrolls in MLB? Seems pretty inconceivable, eh? That would be like if the Twins & Diamondbacks met in the World Series this year. That'd be cool. Not as cool as the Brewers making it, but still better than the Yankees and Mets or whoever. Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports We know there are all kinds of supposed truisms when it comes to making and, ideally, winning the World Series. You have to score the most runs, but you also have to allow the fewest runs. You definitely can't give up extra runs in the field. Outspending the competition surely doesn't hurt, either. Ultimately, your best bet is to do all of the aforementioned (& maybe even bang on some trash cans along the way). What I thought I'd do was go through the last ten full seasons of World Series match-ups to see what, if any, patterns could be gleaned. Below I've listed out those last ten full-season World Series entrants, with the winner at the top. Following in order, are their respective position player WAR, DRS, and runs allowed WAR (all via FanGraphs), plus their Opening Day Payroll via Cot's. MLB ranks for that season within each category are in parentheses. 2012 SFG: 29.0 WAR (3rd) | +11 DRS (11th) | 12.8 rWAR (18th) | $131M (6th) DET: 20.5 WAR (15th) | -29 DRS (24th) | 19.5 rWAR (10th) | $134M (5th) [This payroll match-up represents the second highest by combined rank in the sample, which is interesting because outside of the Giants position players, neither team got much bang for their buck beside the whole "making the World Series over a bunch of better regular season teams" thing.] 2013 BOS: 36.2 WAR (1st) | +22 DRS (11th) | 22.3 rWAR (6th) | $155M (4th) STL: 26.1 WAR (5th) | -38 DRS (22nd) | 18.1 rWAR (10th) | $117M (12th) [Cardinals with an uncharacteristically poor showing on defense, one of only four teams in the sample with a negative DRS. Spoiler Alert: they all lost their respective WS. Red Sox were the better team across the board, and not even Cardinal devil magic could prevail.] 2014 SFG: 25.4 WAR (6th) | +20 DRS (9th) | 10.8 rWAR (24th) | $149M (7th) KCR: 18.8 WAR (12th) | +27 DRS (8th) | 24.3 rWAR (3rd) | $92M (20th) [Royals with the lowest position player WAR in the sample versus Giants with the lowest rWAR in the sample. Ultimately Mad Bum going berserk was too much for Ned Yost's scrappy underdogs to overcome.] 2015 KCR: 21.8 WAR (9th) | +35 DRS (2nd) | 21.8 rWAR (4th) | $113M (17th) NYM: 24.6 WAR (6th) | -11 DRS (17th) | 18.1 rWAR (9th) | $101M (21st) [The titular bizarro 2015 Fall Classic. The Royals, somehow with a higher Opening Day payroll than the New York City Metropolitans, and with the aforementioned Ned Yost captaining the ship by batting Alcides Escobar lead off...you know what, it's so crazy it might just work.] 2016 CHC: 35.9 WAR (1st) | +107 DRS (1st) | 31.3 rWAR (1st) | $172M (6th) CLE: 24.0 WAR (6th) | +41 DRS (7th) | 21.0 rWAR (4th) | $96M (23rd) [Cleveland put together a shoestring juggernaut for one of only two teams in the sample with an OD payroll below $100M. Unfortunately, they ran into maybe the most juggernaut-iest team in the whole sample as the Cubs were the only entrant to rank first in all three position players WAR, DRS, and runs allowed WAR. It sounds like a dynasty in the making; sure, they'll show up some more in subsequent years.] 2017 HOU: 37.2 WAR (1st) | +21 DRS (14th) | 17.6 WAR (10th) | $124M (17th) LAD: 30.3 WAR (2nd) | +65 DRS (2nd) | 26.1 rWAR (5th) | $241M (1st) [Astros' first World Series winner was the last one with a bottom-half OD payroll and one of only two Fall Classic winners in the sample. It feels a little weird looking back on the most dominant team of the last six years as an underdog here, but the Dodgers had a more balanced squad, almost doubled them in OD payroll, and it ended up not mattering.] 2018 BOS: 32.3 WAR (2nd) | +10 DRS (15th) | 24.3 rWAR (3rd) | $234M (1st) LAD: 34.1 WAR (1st) | +55 DRS (5th) | 19.9 rWAR (9th) | $187M (3rd) [The highest match-up in the sample by OD payroll rank. But ultimately, as it was always ordained to be Mookie Betts, no wait Chris Sale, oops make that David Price, ok had to be JD Martinez, scratch that, Steve Pearce who toppled the mighty Dodgers and took home World Series MVP before returning to being Steve Pearce.] 2019 WAS: 28.2 WAR (5th) | +26 DRS (12th) | 21.1 rWAR (8th) | $197M (4th) HOU: 42.0 WAR (1st) | +97 DRS (2nd) | 31.3 rWAR (1st) | $158M (9th) [Astros had the highest position player WAR in the sample, the second highest DRS in the sample, and the second highest runs allowed WAR in the sample. Right there with the 2016 Cubs across the board, maybe even ahead of them when you add it all up. But Strasburg and a freshly twenty-one-year-old Juan Soto were too much for Houston to handle.] 2021 ATL: 24.0 WAR (8th) | +50 DRS (8th) | 22.4 rWAR (7th) | $131M (10th) HOU: 33.7 WAR (1st) | +76 DRS (3rd) | 23.5 rWAR (5th) | $188M (5th) [Once again, the Astros found themselves in the World Series with the better team, though the pitching was close. When the dust settled, Houston's collection of stars at the plate couldn't quite keep pace with World Series MVP Jorge Soler, who promptly returned to being Steve Pearce.] 2022 HOU: 29.5 WAR (6th) | +67 DRS (5th) | 33.0 rWAR (2nd) | $175M (10th) PHI: 21.6 WAR (11th) | -33 DRS (25th) | 18.0 rWAR (9th) | $229M (4th) [Despite having the third highest OD payroll in the sample by actual cash, the Phillies team is one of the more underwhelming entrants in the sample with the 3rd lowest position player WAR, 2nd worst DRS, and a bottom six pitching staff. Astros just keep biting that apple.] CATEGORY NOTES Position Player WAR: the WS team with higher position player WAR has gone 6-4 in the last ten full season World Series. The average winner has had 30.0 WAR and a 4th ranking; the average loser has 27.6 WAR and a 6th ranking. The last three #1 ranked teams in this category have lost the WS, the lowest to win were 2015 KCR (9th) and 2021 ATL (8th). Defensive Runs Saved: as noted earlier, the only four teams to make the Fall Classic with negative DRS lost. The overall theme is just coming out in the positive with a 5-5 record for teams with the better DRS. 2018 BOS at +10 DRS (15th) was the worst fielding team to win a WS in the sample. Runs Allowed WAR: another split at 5-5 for the team with the better rWAR, though the two San Francisco teams, skew the sample somewhat. Losing teams averaged 22.0 WAR and a 7th ranking; winning teams with SF included came in at 21.7 WAR and an 8th ranking. Remove their two outlier seasons, and it goes to a 5-3 record with 24.2 WAR and a 4th ranking for the other eight WS winners in the sample. Opening Day Payroll: the team with the higher OD payroll has gone 6-4 during the sample. Only three Fall Classics in the sample featured two top ten OD payrolls - 2012 (#6 vs. #5), 2018 (#1 vs. #3), and 2019 (#4 vs. #9). The last two World Series have featured payroll upsets, and only two #1 payrolls have even made the last ten Fall Classics, not good signs for Stevzie Cohen. At the same time, the Brewers currently clock in 20th in OD payroll with only three teams making the last ten Fall Classics with a payroll that low, and all three losing at that. These are not good signs for Brewers fans, either. Another possible trend to keep an eye on with regards to OD payroll from 2012-17 is the cumulative rank of WS participants was about 23; there were a lot more mid and small markets represented, with half the WS teams ranking 12th or lower. From 2018-22 that cumulative rank has been about 12 to 13, with only two teams (25%) ranking 10th or lower, though those same two teams also won the last two World Series, to remind us how random this whole enterprise truly is. What do you think? Is there anything we missed? Something in the numbers that jump out to your eyes? View full article

Bullpen kinda sucked last year too outside of DW, Box and first two months of Hader. Devin Williams posted 2.2 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.46 WPA in his 60 IP. The rest of the Brewers relievers posted 0.7 rWAR | 0.3 fWAR | -1.78 WPA in their 536 IP. Hopefully shouldn't be too hard to improve on that level of production.

Not sure if it happened in any kind of lab, but Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang, Black & others have developed pretty nicely in the last year plus. On the MLB side Brewers improved from 12th to 10th in runs scored, went from a 98 position player wRC+ up to a 104 mark and saw a 5 WAR increase from 2021 to 2022. Just need to hold those gains on the position player side and get the pitching back closer to 2021 levels (26.6 rWAR, 3rd) than where it was last year (15.9 rWAR, 14th).

All he needs to do to get Adames number of at bats is become an above average defensive shortstop, drop his K rate about 15% and raise his OPS vs LHP by about 200 points. Looks like no other MLB club was willing to give him that opportunity despite his OPS vs RHP in 134 ABs last year.

How is it obvious they bungled anything? He was up for all of 2020 and hit for an 88 wRC+ with a 34.6% K rate. Ok, whatever, it was the pandemic. Write it off. Try again next year. Keston got regular PT to start 2021 and put up a 43 wRC+ with a 36.0% K rate before being demoted on May 2. They called him back up for 5/24 to 6/6 but he put up a -36 wRC+ (yes, that is a negative wRC+) and 48.5% K rate. Jackson got 26 plate appearances in AA as an 18 year old. His K rate (& all other stats besides being 18 in AA) at Biloxi is statistical noise. Chourio's K rate actually declined from 28.0% to 21.8% over a much larger (though still small) sample when he moved from A up to A+.

300/30/100 for Keston? Must be some good stuff in that pipe.

Entering 2018 the Central looked like a runaway. FanGraphs had it CHI (81%) STL (15%) MIL (3%) to win the division. As we all know, the Crew took it in 163 with the Cubs settling for the WC. Preseason 2019 was a little more even spread at CHC (47%) STL (26%) MIL (15%) and even CIN (7%) to win the division. Cards deployed their devil magic, Crew made the WC with a miracle run, Cubs flopped. Coming into 2021, Central was wide open at MIL (37%) STL (25%) CHI (19%) CIN (18%). Looked like it’d come down to the wire, so of course the Crew won it going away. By 2022 the FG computers were finally convinced on the Crew, giving them 72% division odds vs only 21% for the Cards. Naturally STL prevailed with a cushion. Best part about every new season for me are all the surprises in store. Pretending to know how every thing will turn out before it even begins seems like it would suck most of the fun out of things.

Cubs lost 12 more games than the Brewers in 2022, the Reds lost 24 more games than the Brewers. I can squint and see how the Cubs could maybe challenge for 2nd, but I don’t see how the Reds added twenty plus wins this winter. I’d agree the Cards are the favorites after last year, but it’s by a pretty thin margin. FanGraphs has the Cards at 51% to win the division vs 39% for the Crew, but BPro has it flipped at 54% for MKE vs 38% for STL.

Turns out getting added to the 40 man in November didn’t guarantee Perkins a spot on the 26 man come March.

I’ll be pulling hard for a Knicks upset over the Cavs in round one. Bucks are 3-0 against NY this year and they don’t have the size inside that CLE does with Mobley/Allen

Easy win over Utah tonight with Giannis (24) Jrue (24) and Brook (26) playing low minutes heading to Denver on the B2B. Now 24-3 in their last 27 games. Other games against contenders down the stretch include BOS, PHI and MEM. All three are at Fiserv, though the Celtics game is 2nd end of B2B and will be their 5th game in a 7 day stretch. Pretty brutal scheduling. Grizz is the 2nd to last game of the season, hopefully things will be wrapped by then. Looking at potential playoff match ups as the one seed they are 13-8 against teams currently in the six through eleven play-in range, they are 2-2 vs CLE at #4, and they are 2-3 vs BOS/PHI for a 17-13 (.567 W%) cumulative record against East contenders. They are 36-7 (.837 W%) against the other 20 teams including a pretty ridiculous 23-5 (.821 W%) against the West.

If Lutz has another solid but unspectacular season this year at AAA my guess would be he tries to find an org with less OF depth for 2024. As it stands now for 2024 Brewers would have Yelich (maybe transitioning to DH), Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Taylor, Chourio all for sure ahead of him on the depth chart before getting into guys like Perkins (currently on 40 man) or Black (looking like he’ll be playing plenty of CF in Biloxi this year) or even Noah Campbell who has performed in the same general ballpark as Tristen over the last couple years but brings more positional versatility.

I’ll guess it ends up something like… Rodgers, #15 for #13, 2023 3rd (#74), 2024 2nd & 3rd Maybe a player gets thrown in or some conditions get added to the 2024 picks based on Jets postseason results or if Rodgers comes back for 2024.

Braves have optioned Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to AAA clearing the way for Orlando Arcia to open the season as Dansby Swanson’s replacement.

From 2002-21, the Yankees and Dodgers paid a combined $500M in luxury taxes (for one WS each & a pandemic weirdened one at that for LAD). The Red Sox paid $50M. Another seven teams combined for about $40M in payments. Before Cohen and to a lesser extent Seidler & Middleton started spending like crazy, the luxury tax was essentially a soft cap for the 27 non-NYY/LAD/BOS teams. Calling it a soft cap is even a misnomer as the majority of teams have never exceeded it and many teams in the league have never even seriously approached it. The NBA has a salary cap. That hasn’t stopped the Warriors from racking up a $170M luxury tax bill this year that is higher than the payroll of 24 teams in the association. The NFL has a salary cap too. That didn’t stop the Rams ($272M) from almost doubling the Bears ($138M) in actual spending last year. No matter what kind of system and cap is in place, teams will figure out ways to get around it. What MLB really needs is a mechanism to better address the revenue disparity between teams & institute an accompanying floor that teams receiving funds must meet. Curious to see what the committee comes up with.