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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Can DH Contreras vs LHP to get him more PAs. -
If I understand correctly, the claiming team (even after passing through waivers) would still be responsible for the league minimum, so his $2.2M salary is more like a $1.5M gamble.
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Hiura has never hit LHP well in MLB. His seasonal wRC+ vs LHP from 2019-22 were 74, 81, 13 and 75 for a career 65 wRC+ vs LHP. Anderson hit LHP to the tune of a 107 wRC+ from 2018-20 before injuries marred his 2021/22 seasons knocking his career mark vs LHP down to a 93 wRC+. Anderson has been almost 30% better than Hiura vs LHP over the course of their careers and at his peak was over 40% better. There are 169 RHB with at least 300 PAs vs LHP since 2019. Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 168th with only defensive minded catcher Max Stassi lower. There pretty much is never a Keston Hiura all over again, dude is one of a kind in multiple ways.
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Mentioned him in another thread, but Hunter Harvey had a sneaky good year out of the Nationals pen last year. Only 39 IP but he posted a 62 ERA- and 52 FIP-, though his 0.23 HR9 is likely unsustainable leading to an 85 xFIP-. Checking his pitch mix it looks like he more or less ditched his breaking balls to emphasize his 98.3 MPH four seamer (77%) and 89.4 MPH splitter (15%) as the out pitch. Was a waiver claim by the Nats last year, so maybe they’d want to cash him in to gamble on Hiura’s upside? Could send back one of the out of options relievers and maybe a prospect like Zavier Warren to get it over the line.
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I wouldn’t necessarily say wrong, just that there are some reasons (beyond blind optimism) to believe they might not stink as bad vs LHP as they did last year (92 wRC+). The other thing to keep in mind is splits vs LHP probably comp best by sample size with relief pitcher workloads & we know how volatile relievers are year over year.
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Urias defensive metrics in 1,191 innings at 3B are pretty neutral over his career, +10 DRS | -0.1 UZR | -3 OAA. I agree he profiles better at 2B, but the metrics haven’t seen much of a difference in his 807 innings at the keystone with +3 DRS | +1.1 UZR | +6 OAA.
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Not necessarily. Here are splits vs LHP since 2020… Contreras (155 PA | 158 wRC+), Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+) are six guys on the right side of 100. Anderson was at 107 wRC+ vs LHP over 358 PAs from 2018-20, so he could bounce back to the right side of 100. Frelick and Turang have also had pretty even splits the last couple years, so might not be complete liabilities vs LHP… Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS Frelick 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS Frelick 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS The other thing to consider when looking at the 2022 results vs LHP is that while losing Renfroe (134 wRC+ | +5.7 wRAA) hurts, losing Cain (-17 wRC+ | -6.8 wRAA), Wong (37 wRC+ | -6.9 wRAA) and hopefully Hiura (75 wRC+ | -2.9 wRAA) should help a lot more.
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vs RHP Ca: Contreras 1B: Rowdy 2B: Turang SS: Adames 3B: Urias LF: Yelich CF: Frelick RF: Mitchell DH: Winker vs LHP Ca: Caratini 1B: Brosseau 2B: Urias SS: Adames 3B: Anderson LF: Yelich CF: Frelick RF: Taylor DH: Contreras
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Good insurance policy for 3B/RF. If he hits like 2018-20 (115 wRC+) could be a nice signing, if he hits like 2021-22 (93 wRC+) prolly won’t be much of an upgrade over what we already have.
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Which free agents do you believe would have been wise signings for the Brewers this offseason?
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In 2011 the Brewers OD payroll of $84M ranked 17th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $98M OD payroll ranking 13th (highest ever under Mark A) and won 83 games. In 2018 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 26th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $123M OD payroll ranking 17th and won 89 games. In 2021 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 19th. They won 95 games. They followed that up with a $132M OD payroll, a big increase but not enough to get out of 19th place, and won 86 games. That’s three recent-ish examples where increased spending didn’t result in increased winning. I’d say sometimes spending equals winning and sometimes it doesn’t. Being able to spend more can be helpful if done intelligently, but it doesn’t guarantee anything either.
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Bush is a great example of how much the game has changed in a relatively short time. Inning eating #4/5 starters just aren’t really even a thing anymore. In 2006 he was one of 45 pitchers with at least 200 IP. Nine of those 45 had an ERA worse than league average, including Doug Davis. Bush was one of another 11 who had an ERA- between 99 and 94, so just a lil better than average. Hardly anyone pitches 200 IP anymore to begin with. Only eight in 2022 with the worst ERA- belonging to Gerritt Cole at 91. Only 45 pitchers even threw enough IP (162) in 2022 to qualify vs 84 qualifiers in 2006.
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Yeah, even Keith Hernandez with +117 Total Zone Runs (most ever for a 1B) only has a 1.3 career dWAR because playing over 17,000 innings at 1B has a -103 positional adjustment. You pretty much have to be putting up +10 fielding runs annually as a 1B to break even in dWAR. Same thing applies to a lesser extent to LF/RF which also have sizeable negative positional adjustments.
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dWAR includes positional adjustment, -9 runs for Coop in 1979. Even the best fielding 1B often end up with negative dWAR due to that positional adjustment. From 1977-82 Total Zone credits Coop with +18 runs with the glove, but his fielding fell off just like his bat at the end of his career with -10 runs from 1983-87.
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01 Coop 78-83: 3645 PA | 142 OPS+ | +13 BSR | +7 FLD | 27.3 WAR (has the longevity and the best peak) 02 Scott 72-76: 3320 PA | 131 OPS+ | -11 BSR | +42 FLD | 22.6 WAR (massive edge in FLD/BSR [+110 total runs] worth more than the 20 points of OPS+) 03 Prince 07-11: 3500 PA | 151 OPS+ | -25 BSR | -54 FLD | 17.5 WAR (best hitter of the bunch, worst base runner and fielder by a considerable margin. #1 DH) 04 Richie 00-03: 2288 PA | 133 OPS+ | -13 BSR | -11 FLD | 11.3 WAR (best hair, but longevity doesn't match up) 05 Jaha 92-97: 3285 PA | 113 OPS+ | -2 BSR | -7 FLD | 8.7 WAR HM to Seitzer [109 OPS+ | 10.5 WAR] but he played more 3B [176 G] than 1B [145 G] Granted it was only 131 games spread over three seasons, but Molitor's splits as a 1B are pretty crazy too & probably good enough for the #5 spot on the list... 1990 (season: 807 OPS | 125 OPS+) 1B: 308/369/493 (862 OPS) ~140 OPS+ 2B: 287/338/466 (804 OPS) 1991 (season: 888 OPS | 147 OPS+) 1B: 333/420/524 (944 OPS) ~165 OPS+ DH: 321/391/475 (865 OPS) 1992 (season: 851 OPS | 140 OPS+) 1B: 371/419/541 (960 OPS) ~165 OPS+ DH: 298/378/426 (804 OPS) Molitor put up a total of 13.3 WAR from 1990-92 with a third of his games at 1B, so that is a 4.5 WAR baseline. Throw in how much better he hit as a 1B over that time frame and you're probably talking about something like 6 WAR in those 131 G / 596 PA at 1B.
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dWAR includes positional adjustment so both are dragged down by playing 1B. Cooper played more innings so he gets a -88 positional adjustment versus only a -54 for Prince. Looking at their actual glove work, Cooper graded out at +8 fielding runs with Milwaukee, Fielder graded out at -76 fielding runs.
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Singleton peaked in the prospect rankings at #25 following his age 20 season as a hit only 1B. Tatis Jr peaked at #2 following his age 19 season as a five tool SS. Those are two way different calibres of prospects.
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1. Burnes (In conversation for best SP in baseball) 2. Woodruff (Top 10-ish SP in baseball) 3. Chourio (Consensus Top 10 prospect as a teenager) 4. Peralta (Extension helps, injuries hurt) 5. Adames (Top 10-ish SS in baseball) 6. Williams (Top 5-ish reliever in MLB) 7. Contreras (young All Star Catcher) 8. Ashby (Extension & stuff helps, results not quite there yet) 9. Urias (Solid MLB IF + team control) 10. Frelick (Best non-Chourio prospect) HM: Wiemer, Mitchell, Taylor, Turang, Quero Dishonorable Mention: Yelich
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Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls per Cots (with MLB ranks) over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB… 2022: $132M (19th) 2021: $99M (19th) 2019: $123M (17th) 2018: $99M (26th) 2017: $63M (30th) 2016: $64M (30th) 2015: $104M (20th) 2014: $104M (16th) 2013: $89M (19th) 2012: $98M (13th) 2011: $84M (17th) 2010: $90M (17th) 2009: $80M (17th) 2008: $81M (15th) The Brewers have a decade and a half long history of outperforming their payroll rank in the win column. Consistently ranking around 17th-19th in payroll is probably the ceiling given Milwaukee’s market size and TV contract are among the smallest in MLB. The idea that the Brewers are putting out a declining product is demonstrably false too… 1983-2007: 1874-2105 (.471 W%) 2008-11: 343-305 (.529 W%) 2012-16: 380-430 (.469 W%) 2017-22: 481-390 (.552 W%) The last six seasons have been the best run of Brewers baseball since making the WS forty years ago.
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Article: Justin Topa Traded to Seattle for Minor Leaguer
sveumrules replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hernandez added to the Brewers list at #22 per FanGraphs with this scouting report… ”Hernandez's stuff, especially his slider, is the darling of some proprietary metrics. He has a tight, upper-70s slider that he throws most often, using it at a 60% clip in 2022. His tailing fastball will creep into the mid-90s and has the uphill angle that teams like Milwaukee covet, with both the tailing movement and angle stemming from his low arm slot. He struggles badly to throw strikes with his fastball, which is probably why he leans on his big-breaking slider more than half the time. There's a tertiary changeup here, but Hernandez's approach to pitching (which is to get ahead of a hitter with his slider, then try to run the fastball up the ladder) is more typical of a single-inning reliever than someone who has worked as a starter to this point. If he finally has an arm strength uptick in the bullpen, he'll be a solid middle reliever; if he can ever learn to command his fastball, his ceiling is higher than that.“ -
I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.
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I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.
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Probably to line up with Stearns contract expiring in 2023. Believe Counsell’s contract is also up after 2023.
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Article: Fernando Vina Was a Throwback to Baseball's Past
sveumrules replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Always group Viña, Belliard and Loretta together in my head. Kinda crazy how close their career Brewers numbers are… Viña 2187 PA | 90 OPS+ | 6.0 WAR Belliard 1930 PA | 90 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR Loretta 2943 PA | 92 OPS+ | 5.9 WAR -
From 2020-21 there were 263 players with at least 400 PA. Hiura ranked 250th by wRC+ (72) and 3rd in K% (36.6%). He hadn't done anything to earn regular playing time entering 2022. Over the first month (4/7 to 5/5) of the season he posted a 97 wRC+ and 47.6 K% before being sent down to AAA. Upon his return he was scorching hot for 10 days (228 wRC+ | only 31.6 K%) from 5/18 to 5/28 followed up by going ice cold for 10 days (46 wRC+ | 54.8 K%) from 5/30 to 6/9 which earned him a week off. He bounced back alright over the next two months of sporadic playing time with a 184 wRC+ and 38.5 K% over 78 PA from 6/15 to 8/22 with a month at AAA mixed in. However, as it typically is with Keston it was too good to be true and he finished the season with a 63 wRC+ and 39.8 K% over his final 93 PA from 8/23 to 10/5.
