sveumrules

Adames currently has a 78 wRC+, if he keeps not hitting like that I don’t think there will be a ton of demand. The Dodgers are the only contender who have gotten worse SS production than the Brewers to this point, so might be tough to get a bidding war going when SS isn’t a pressing need for the majority of contenders.

Greinke made a conscious decision to pitch to his FIP with Milwaukee, and specifically changed his approach to be more groundball heavy in an effort to limit home runs. Batted ball profiles… 2008-10 w/ KCR 100 LD%+ | 99 GB%+ | 101 FB%+ 2011-12 w/ MIL 108 LD%+ | 111 GB%+ | 81 FB%+ 2013-15 w/ LAD 103 LD%+ | 103 GB%+ | 93 FB%+ 2016-18 w/ARI 96 LD%+ | 103 GB%+ | 99 FB%+ His batted ball profile was much more evenly distributed both before and after his stint with Milwaukee. When you consider Brewers IF posted -29 DRS from 2011-12 vs +32 DRS for the OF, Greinke maybe outsmarted himself somewhat. He definitely had ace level peripherals with the Brewers, and was successful in his goal of putting up the best FIP he could, but it didn’t translate to ace level run prevention (in part because he was intentionally trying to induce grounders to a Yuni, Rickie, Prince infield) or IP totals (because he was running up his pitch counts trying to strike everybody out).

Hader first last deadline, then Stearns last offseason, maybe Burnes and/or Adames (though he isn’t an OG) at the upcoming deadline, then possibly Counsell and/or Woodruff in the off season. Definitely getting close to the end of this particular era of Brewers baseball and looking increasingly like they’ll go out with more of a whimper than a bang unfortunately. But hey, who knows, at this time in 2021 the Braves hadn’t even acquired NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario or World Series MVP Jorge Soler yet so I’ll keep an open mind towards potential future outcomes for a lil while longer yet.

Greinke went 25-9 primarily because the Brewers averaged 5.3 runs scored during his starts, the best run support of any regular Brewers SP during his tenure and even a fraction better than Cy Vuke got from the 1982 Brewers. During Greinke’s time with the Brewers (2011 thru 7/24/2012) there were 76 qualified starting pitchers. Here are Greinke’s ranks… 294 IP (55th) | 93 ERA- (35th) | 3.6 rWAR (46th) | 1.20 WHIP (24th) | 4.42 K/BB (4th) He didn’t pitch an ace’s quantity of innings, he didn’t prevent runs at the same rate that an ace does and he didn’t really even prevent base runners at an ace level. The only thing remotely ace-y about his performance was the K/BB ratio. My definition of an ace for that time period would be guys who pitched like Verlander (399 IP | 58 ERA- | 14.3 rWAR), Weaver (346 IP | 60 ERA- | 12.3 rWAR), Kershaw (373 IP | 70 ERA- | 10.6 rWAR), Halladay (317 IP | 74 ERA- | 9.4 rWAR), Cliff (351 IP | 75 ERA- | 10.0 rWAR) and Hamels (349 IP | 76 ERA- | 9.7 rWAR).

No Greinke wasn’t an ace with the Brewers. He ranked 71st in rWAR among 94 qualified SP in 2011. Sheets had one ace level season, 2004 when he ranked 4th in rWAR among 89 qualified starters.

The standard isn't past Brewers aces, who weren't really aces to begin with in the grand scheme of things. The standard is Burnes own past performance. From 2020 through 2022, Burnes threw 428 IP with a 63 ERA- and 58 FIP-. His 14.0 rWAR and 14.4 fWAR were both tops among all starting pitchers during that stretch. So far this year he has a 77 ERA- and 97 FIP- which are 14% and 39% worse than the results he turned in over the last three seasons on a rate basis. His 1.6 rWAR ranks 30th and his 1.0 fWAR ranks 45th among 68 qualified starters.

Sure, Giannis has the edge on defense and Jokic has (I’d say a bigger) edge on offense, but the real separator between them for me are health and postseason resilience. Giannis 18-23 RS: 326 G | 10516 MP | 30.6 PER | .625 TS% | .261 WS/48 Giannis 18-23 PS: 60 G | 2130 MP | 27.3 PER | .580 TS% | .204 WS/48 Jokic 18-23 RS: 368 G | 12127 MP | 29.4 PER | .641 TS% | .267 WS/48 Jokic 18-23 PS: 68 G | 2556 MP | 29.0 PER | .614 TS% | .236 WS/48 Thats 50 more games and over 2,000 extra minutes on the floor for Jokic over the last five seasons, plus he maintains his production much better during the postseason even with all the additional games/minutes.

I’m not taking anything for granted. Giannis is clearly the second best player on the planet right now. If he wants to maintain that standing as long as possible, or maybe even reclaim the top spot, I think his game necessarily has to evolve at some rapidly approaching point as we’re already seeing the diminishing returns of running into a wall over and over and over again. Hopefully the front office has some deft moves lined up and the new coaching staff has some fresh ideas to help facilitate that evolution.

Giannis 16-18: 26.7 PER | .599 TS% | .209 WS/48 Giannis 18-22: 31.0 PER | .631 TS% | .275 WS/48 Giannis 22-23: 29.0 PER | .605 TS% | .204 WS/48 His production last season was much closer to All Star Giannis during the Kidd era than it was to MVP Giannis during the first four seasons of the Bud era. I hope it is just a one season blip, but yes, barring changes to his playing style we very well may have seen the best of Giannis already. Is it really that wild to think his reckless game based on being stronger and more athletic than the other guy might not age the best, especially after we've already seen a notable drop in efficiency while the games missed pile up a little more every year?

Miley (122 IP | 71 ERA- | 96 FIP-) is the most recent example, but the Brewers definitely have a history of coaxing good results out of mediocre stuff guys with Chase Anderson (438 IP | 85 ERA- | 107 FIP-), Zach Davies (417 IP | 90 ERA- | 101 FIP-), and Brent Suter (373 IP | 84 ERA- | 95 FIP-) in larger samples, or even Gio Gonzalez (112 IP | 73 ERA- | 90 FIP-), Alex Claudio (81 IP | 92 ERA- | 106 FIP-) and Jordan Lyles (75 IP | 61 ERA- | 90 FIP-) in smaller samples all notably outperforming their underwhelming peripherals. Granted, lots of those IP were pre-pandemic, but the Brewers are also tops in MLB in dIfferential between ERA (4.02) and FIP (4.65) this year so it appears they may be at it again. There is no doubt all that really matters is what happens over the next four months, and that Julio will regress from his current 36 ERA- | 92 FIP-. Hopefully that ends up closer to good Julio (87 ERA- | 102 FIP- over 795 IP from 2013-16) than bad Julio (101 ERA- | 117 FIP- over 575 IP from 2017-21).

For whatever it is or isn’t worth, baseball trade values has Bieber at $45M, Burnes at $51M. Obviously the values aren’t incontrovertible, but some combination of Frelick ($33M), Ashby ($20M), Quero ($14M), Mitchell ($12M), Black ($9M), and our Comp Balance Pick ($6M) would likely be the most appealing assets to Cleveland.

Believe this is the most recent info we have.

Good breakdown. Hadn't noticed before how much the Phillies defense (-12 DRS | 24th) had impacted Wheeler specifically so far this year with that 4.33 ERA vs 2.85 FIP, though he's also had some HR luck early on with the 3.58 xFIP. Either way, I don't see the Phils dealing him just because they are so pot-committed with big money long term contracts.

Brewers MLB best bullpen Win Probability Added is now up to +5.04. Defense has fallen off a little bit, but still strong at +18 DRS (4th). Assume instead the Brewers had an average bullpen by leverage and average team defense, put those seven wins in the loss column...and they are still a game and a half up on the Cardinals.

That’s an 82 wRC+ which would rank behind Yelich (102), Anderson (102), Adames (84), Tellez (114), Contreras (108) and Miller (125) among regulars and dead even with struggling rookie Wiemer (82) before tonight’s game. If we throw in Monasterio (137) in a small sample, Turner’s performance would rank 8th or 9th among current Brewers. Not bad for $300M.

It’s pretty simple to me. The version of Giannis that won back to back MVPs four/five years ago now at age 24/25…is gone and ain’t coming back. The version of Giannis that won Finals MVP three years ago…is gone and ain’t coming back. I know there are a bevy of advanced metrics, but one of the most basic and telling for me is TS+, essentially the same idea as OPS+, but for scoring efficiency. Over the last five seasons Giannis has gone 115, 109, 111, 112, and then down to 104 last year. That’s a big drop off. Obviously load management is a whole thing of its own in the modern NBA, but Giannis isn’t sitting games for the fun of it. He’s sitting games because his overly reckless play style exposes him to additional injury risk and it’s piling up. He’s missed 10, 10, 11, 15 and 19 games the last five seasons. If Griffin and staff can’t figure out a way to re-invent Giannis into his thirties (and get him on board with it) so he regains his efficiency via a new scheme/style of play that allows him to start playing gradually more instead of increasingly less…nothing else will really matter all that much anyway.

We're sixty games into the schedule now and there are no two ways about it, the offense has been bad. Like 87 wRC+ and 4.02 R/G (both 25th in MLB) bad. But as we all know, something happening for sixty games is no guarantee it is going to continue happening that exact same way for the next one hundred plus games. Projections try to suss out some of that still early season small sample noise, and as we know they do a better job of predicting future results than just looking at actual (or even pythagorean) results to date this early on. Want some mild, un-biased optimism? The computers at FanGraphs think that rest of season the team projects to score 4.47 R/G which would be 22nd, BPro thinks we have something like the 19th/20th best offense based on their DC RS team metric. They both seem to think the Brewers have underperformed their talent level to this point and better days are ahead. I was curious if looking at recent history might offer some additional insight so using the custom date tool on the FanGraphs leaderboards I went back over the last four full seasons and found thirty teams (a whole league!!) who had team position player wRC+ ranging from 80 to 92 over their first sixty-ish games or so, and then adjusted the dates to see how they performed over their remaining 100 some games to close the season. The results, with format of (60 game wRC+ | rest of season wRC+ | difference)... 2018 TEX (80 | 95 | +15) COL (84 | 101 | +17) BAL (85 | 89 | +4) ARI (85 | 99 | +14) MIA (86 | 90 | +4) SDP (87 | 92 | +5) 2019 BAL (81 | 93 | +12) CLE (81 | 107 | +26) CIN (85 | 96 | +11) KCR (88 | 82 | -6) CHW (88 | 94 | +6) SDP (90 | 97 | +7) PIT (91 | 99 | +8) 2021 PIT (81 | 91 | +10) SEA (83 | 100 | +17) DET (84 | 101 | +17) TEX (85 | 83 | -2) MIL (86 | 105 | +19) KCR (87 | 90 | +3) CLE (87 | 97 | +10) MIA (89 | 90 | +1) ARI (91 | 88 | -3) 2022 PIT (83 | 85 | +2) CIN (87 | 83 | -4) COL (88 | 85 | -3) CHW (88 | 104 | +16) KCR (88 | 95 | +7) ARI (90 | 04 | +4) BAL (90 | 103 | +13) TEX (92 | 101 | +9) Put if all together and out of the thirty teams...twelve (40%) were who we thought they were with their wRC+ getting worse or only improving marginally over the rest of the season, five (16.7%) saw an increase between five and nine percent, and the remaining thirteen (43.3%) saw an increase of over ten percent. The average across all thirty teams was an increase of about 7.6%. Obviously contextual factors are unique to each team, with some of the larger increases being driven by player acquisition (2021 MIL with Adames) or prospect ascension (2022 BAL with Adley/Gunnar), while most of the teams who saw a decrease or little to no change likely were also selling off players at the deadline and/or giving younger players a shot down the stretch. Either way, whether it is the computerized projections or a smattering of recent history, it appears as though the Brewers offense should see some degree of improvement as the season goes along. Will it be enough to win a mediocre NLC or maybe get hot and make some noise in the playoffs? I guess that all depends on how much one believes, in regression to the mean.

From 2020-22 there were 104 pitchers with at least 250 IP in MLB. Among that sample Freddy came in with a 76 ERA- (22nd), 72 FIP- (10th), 6.6 rWAR (43rd) and 6.8 fWAR (35th). All for less than 4 million dollars. No matter what happens from here on out, the contract is already a success from the team's standpoint. He's struggled to start the year, no doubt, but he has provided much more value to the Brewers than just signing a team friendly extension.

Peralta has a 107 ERA- so far this year. His Ks are down and BBs/HRs are up to the tune of a 110 FIP-. Throw in the injury history plus three affordable years remaining on the original extension and I see no reason to tack on another 4/54 at this point.

Loved the Rea blurb. Considering he was ostensibly our 9th SP entering the season, that he’s pitched well enough (inspired enough run support) for the team to go 5-3 in his starts so far has to be considered a win overall.

Cool write up, reilly. I’ll always have a soft spot for Rickie because that draft with him and Delmon Young, plus the Fielder pick in 2002, were a big part of me getting back into the Brewers after leaving SE Wisco for a few years around the late 90s/early 2000s. Outside of the hit tool not panning out (94 AVG+ | 131 K%+) he did deliver with above average power for a 2B (115 ISO+), patience (122 BB%+) and speed (126 SB | +19.5 BSR). Unfortunately the glove was maybe even worse than advertised (-113 DRS | -45.8 UZR). All numbers career with Brewers. If we narrow it to his five year prime from 2007-11 he came in at a 117 wRC+ and 15.7 WAR which was good for 9th among 2B during that stretch even though he missed about 1.5 seasons to injury (only 2497 PA) during that stretch. All in all, I think the pick was a hit, especially with the hindsight of knowing Nick Markakis was the true prize.

Appears as though Rudy maybe has some nice deception going on there too. What I think I’m seeing is his set up looks like he’s going to come at you with a fairly standard high 3/4 arm slot, but then his actual release is a slot lower? Not sure how much of that data is public on the minor league side, but looks like he gets pretty good extension too.

Well, I kinda cheated since that line includes his two HR game from 06/01, so “only” 300/383/478 (120 wRC+) for May proper. Good start towards June Hitter of the Month though!!

Shout out to Blake Perkins, who has been on a tear since returning to Nashville at 330/420/564 (146 wRC+) over 112 PA since May 2nd with 24 K | 16 BB.

Significant trades this far before the deadline like Sabathia in 08 or Adames in 21 are pretty rare, who would you target? Going down the wRC+ leaderboard for non-contenders (min 100 PA) there is Brent Rooker (145) and Ryan Noda (143) from OAK, Jake Burger (145) and Luis Robert (123) from CHW, Zach McKinstry (138) from DET, Nick Pratto (133) and Sal Perez (123) from KCR, and Randal Grichuk (131) from COL. That’s pretty much it for guys over a 120 wRC+. Right now there is one guy on the team over performing, Owen Miller (135 wRC+). I would say Rowdy (120), Anderson (109), Contreras (108) and Yelich (105) are right around where they should be, so we’ve at least got 5/9ths of a lineup. The #1 thing that needs to happen is for Adames to come back and hit closer to the 120 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 than his current 84 mark. If he doesn’t that’s probably a lose lose for both the NLC and trade deadline. Next up, Urias coming back and hitting around the 111 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 would be a huge improvement over Turang currently at a 51 wRC+. Tyrone Taylor (104 wRC+ from 2021-22) is due for massive positive regression from his current 8 wRC+. From there it gets admittedly murkier. Frelick and Hiura coming back from injury could be two internal options for improvement coming up before the deadline. How crazy would it be if a “fixed” Hiura came back and gave us a boost similar to 2019, time being a flat circle and all that. Brewers full season position player wRC+ since 2018 has been at 105, 102, 98 and 104 last year. They have a recent history of being able to put together cromulent offenses. I don’t believe their current 87 wRC+ (which would tie 1997 for the worst Brewers offense ever) is representative of their true talent level with essentially four black holes in the lineup at the moment. Some combination of improvement from current players, plus both internal and external lineup additions over the remainder of the season should hopefully get that team wRC+ closer to where it’s been over the last half decade.