sveumrules

It’s possible one last move of significance is incoming before the season starts, but with how the NL lines up currently it’d be hard for us to jump from a “low tier” contender up to that next tier. Here’s the current projected WAR totals for NL teams on the FanGraphs depth charts… Top Tier: SDP (52.2), NYM (51.6), ATL (50.2) Mid Tier: LAD (47.8), STL (46.4) Low Tier: PHI (43.4), MIL (41.8) Need Help: SFG (37.6), MIA (36.5), CHC (35.3). PIT (35.2), ARI (33.2) No Hope: WAS (28.2), CIN (27.6), COL (26.1)

Three signees 6’2” or taller are all pitchers. Also kinda interesting with zero LHP and only one catcher.

Mostly conjecture, but it seems to me like the Brewers either don't care about guys being on the short side, or are maybe even seeking them out somewhat looking through the system. Might be thinking with the incoming automated strike zone that shorter players will benefit by having smaller zones to cover. On the recent FanGraphs list there is Frelick (5'10"), Brown Jr. (5' 11"), Quero (5' 11"), Lara (5'9"), Moore (5'9"), Areinamo (5'10"), Perkins (5'11"), C. Rodriguez (5'10"), Wood (5'10"), Castillo (5'11"), and Hedbert (5'11") all listed under six feet. Eleven of the 23 position players on the list. If you throw in Warren & Metzinger both listed at 6'0" that flips it to over half at 13 of 23.

Which free agents do you believe would have been wise signings for the Brewers this offseason?

In 2011 the Brewers OD payroll of $84M ranked 17th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $98M OD payroll ranking 13th (highest ever under Mark A) and won 83 games. In 2018 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 26th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $123M OD payroll ranking 17th and won 89 games. In 2021 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 19th. They won 95 games. They followed that up with a $132M OD payroll, a big increase but not enough to get out of 19th place, and won 86 games. That’s three recent-ish examples where increased spending didn’t result in increased winning. I’d say sometimes spending equals winning and sometimes it doesn’t. Being able to spend more can be helpful if done intelligently, but it doesn’t guarantee anything either.

Bush is a great example of how much the game has changed in a relatively short time. Inning eating #4/5 starters just aren’t really even a thing anymore. In 2006 he was one of 45 pitchers with at least 200 IP. Nine of those 45 had an ERA worse than league average, including Doug Davis. Bush was one of another 11 who had an ERA- between 99 and 94, so just a lil better than average. Hardly anyone pitches 200 IP anymore to begin with. Only eight in 2022 with the worst ERA- belonging to Gerritt Cole at 91. Only 45 pitchers even threw enough IP (162) in 2022 to qualify vs 84 qualifiers in 2006.

Yeah, even Keith Hernandez with +117 Total Zone Runs (most ever for a 1B) only has a 1.3 career dWAR because playing over 17,000 innings at 1B has a -103 positional adjustment. You pretty much have to be putting up +10 fielding runs annually as a 1B to break even in dWAR. Same thing applies to a lesser extent to LF/RF which also have sizeable negative positional adjustments.

dWAR includes positional adjustment, -9 runs for Coop in 1979. Even the best fielding 1B often end up with negative dWAR due to that positional adjustment. From 1977-82 Total Zone credits Coop with +18 runs with the glove, but his fielding fell off just like his bat at the end of his career with -10 runs from 1983-87.

01 Coop 78-83: 3645 PA | 142 OPS+ | +13 BSR | +7 FLD | 27.3 WAR (has the longevity and the best peak) 02 Scott 72-76: 3320 PA | 131 OPS+ | -11 BSR | +42 FLD | 22.6 WAR (massive edge in FLD/BSR [+110 total runs] worth more than the 20 points of OPS+) 03 Prince 07-11: 3500 PA | 151 OPS+ | -25 BSR | -54 FLD | 17.5 WAR (best hitter of the bunch, worst base runner and fielder by a considerable margin. #1 DH) 04 Richie 00-03: 2288 PA | 133 OPS+ | -13 BSR | -11 FLD | 11.3 WAR (best hair, but longevity doesn't match up) 05 Jaha 92-97: 3285 PA | 113 OPS+ | -2 BSR | -7 FLD | 8.7 WAR HM to Seitzer [109 OPS+ | 10.5 WAR] but he played more 3B [176 G] than 1B [145 G] Granted it was only 131 games spread over three seasons, but Molitor's splits as a 1B are pretty crazy too & probably good enough for the #5 spot on the list... 1990 (season: 807 OPS | 125 OPS+) 1B: 308/369/493 (862 OPS) ~140 OPS+ 2B: 287/338/466 (804 OPS) 1991 (season: 888 OPS | 147 OPS+) 1B: 333/420/524 (944 OPS) ~165 OPS+ DH: 321/391/475 (865 OPS) 1992 (season: 851 OPS | 140 OPS+) 1B: 371/419/541 (960 OPS) ~165 OPS+ DH: 298/378/426 (804 OPS) Molitor put up a total of 13.3 WAR from 1990-92 with a third of his games at 1B, so that is a 4.5 WAR baseline. Throw in how much better he hit as a 1B over that time frame and you're probably talking about something like 6 WAR in those 131 G / 596 PA at 1B.

dWAR includes positional adjustment so both are dragged down by playing 1B. Cooper played more innings so he gets a -88 positional adjustment versus only a -54 for Prince. Looking at their actual glove work, Cooper graded out at +8 fielding runs with Milwaukee, Fielder graded out at -76 fielding runs.

Singleton peaked in the prospect rankings at #25 following his age 20 season as a hit only 1B. Tatis Jr peaked at #2 following his age 19 season as a five tool SS. Those are two way different calibres of prospects.

1. Burnes (In conversation for best SP in baseball) 2. Woodruff (Top 10-ish SP in baseball) 3. Chourio (Consensus Top 10 prospect as a teenager) 4. Peralta (Extension helps, injuries hurt) 5. Adames (Top 10-ish SS in baseball) 6. Williams (Top 5-ish reliever in MLB) 7. Contreras (young All Star Catcher) 8. Ashby (Extension & stuff helps, results not quite there yet) 9. Urias (Solid MLB IF + team control) 10. Frelick (Best non-Chourio prospect) HM: Wiemer, Mitchell, Taylor, Turang, Quero Dishonorable Mention: Yelich

oWAR and dWAR on BRef do not sum perfectly to a player's WAR because they both include the positional adjustment. For Kim BRef has him at +6 BAT | +3 BSR | +12 FLD | +8 POS | +20 REP which sums to 49 RAR or 5.1 WAR. On FanGraphs he is at +3.5 BAT | +1.9 BSR | +4.0 FLD | +5.9 POS | +17.4 REP which sums to 34.9 RAR or 3.7 WAR. As is the case with most players the main column driving the end WAR difference is fielding, which accounts for 8 of the 14 RAR difference between the two systems for Kim.

Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls per Cots (with MLB ranks) over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB… 2022: $132M (19th) 2021: $99M (19th) 2019: $123M (17th) 2018: $99M (26th) 2017: $63M (30th) 2016: $64M (30th) 2015: $104M (20th) 2014: $104M (16th) 2013: $89M (19th) 2012: $98M (13th) 2011: $84M (17th) 2010: $90M (17th) 2009: $80M (17th) 2008: $81M (15th) The Brewers have a decade and a half long history of outperforming their payroll rank in the win column. Consistently ranking around 17th-19th in payroll is probably the ceiling given Milwaukee’s market size and TV contract are among the smallest in MLB. The idea that the Brewers are putting out a declining product is demonstrably false too… 1983-2007: 1874-2105 (.471 W%) 2008-11: 343-305 (.529 W%) 2012-16: 380-430 (.469 W%) 2017-22: 481-390 (.552 W%) The last six seasons have been the best run of Brewers baseball since making the WS forty years ago.

Hernandez added to the Brewers list at #22 per FanGraphs with this scouting report… ”Hernandez's stuff, especially his slider, is the darling of some proprietary metrics. He has a tight, upper-70s slider that he throws most often, using it at a 60% clip in 2022. His tailing fastball will creep into the mid-90s and has the uphill angle that teams like Milwaukee covet, with both the tailing movement and angle stemming from his low arm slot. He struggles badly to throw strikes with his fastball, which is probably why he leans on his big-breaking slider more than half the time. There's a tertiary changeup here, but Hernandez's approach to pitching (which is to get ahead of a hitter with his slider, then try to run the fastball up the ladder) is more typical of a single-inning reliever than someone who has worked as a starter to this point. If he finally has an arm strength uptick in the bullpen, he'll be a solid middle reliever; if he can ever learn to command his fastball, his ceiling is higher than that.“

Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP over the last two years Scott Barlow is at 148 IP (2nd), 5.2 rWAR (1st), 3.0 fWAR (10th) and +4.28 WPA (8th) with a 54 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 85 xFIP-. That is worlds better than Soto at 124 IP (36th), 0.5 rWAR (254th), 0.7 fWAR (129th) and +1.73 WPA (61st) with an 82 ERA- | 95 FIP- | 108 xFIP-. Any deal for Barlow probably starts with Mitchell or Wiemer. Rainey had TJ in August, would rather just see if Small can figure out his command than deal him for someone out most of 2023. I’d do the Mayo deal, but would guess BAL would want Lauer over Houser and someone with more value/control than Hiura for the 2nd piece, at which point it prolly isn’t worth it anymore from the MIL side.

I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.

I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.

Here is what FanGraphs said about Ereu… “One of the more polished all-around players in the class, Ereu has plus infield footwork and actions, and is physical enough to threaten the gaps on offense. He looks like a third round West Coast college infielder in his skills and build, and is perceived to have a high floor.” If you click on the players’ names at the MLB.com link up thread there are scouting reports there too.

Probably to line up with Stearns contract expiring in 2023. Believe Counsell’s contract is also up after 2023.

Always group Viña, Belliard and Loretta together in my head. Kinda crazy how close their career Brewers numbers are… Viña 2187 PA | 90 OPS+ | 6.0 WAR Belliard 1930 PA | 90 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR Loretta 2943 PA | 92 OPS+ | 5.9 WAR

Haven’t played a game with their whole rotation healthy and have the 2nd best record in the NBA even with their mediocre play since the 9-0 start. Yeah, that Giannis guy is pretty good. The way I break it down a little shy of the halfway point would be that GA, Jrue, Brook and Bobby are currently playing at playoff levels. Grayson and Jevon are playing fine for regular season, but not sure either one is more than like an 8th/9th guy come playoff time. Jingles and Pat have shown flashes of playoff calibre rotation play, but aren’t there consistently just yet. Middleton looked rusty before getting hurt again, at this point it feels like the season will pretty much come down to if he is able to get back and round into vintage Khris form in time for the playoffs. Believe KM is eligible for a huge extension coming up, deadline might be Horst’s best chance to to dodge that bullet.

From 2020-21 there were 263 players with at least 400 PA. Hiura ranked 250th by wRC+ (72) and 3rd in K% (36.6%). He hadn't done anything to earn regular playing time entering 2022. Over the first month (4/7 to 5/5) of the season he posted a 97 wRC+ and 47.6 K% before being sent down to AAA. Upon his return he was scorching hot for 10 days (228 wRC+ | only 31.6 K%) from 5/18 to 5/28 followed up by going ice cold for 10 days (46 wRC+ | 54.8 K%) from 5/30 to 6/9 which earned him a week off. He bounced back alright over the next two months of sporadic playing time with a 184 wRC+ and 38.5 K% over 78 PA from 6/15 to 8/22 with a month at AAA mixed in. However, as it typically is with Keston it was too good to be true and he finished the season with a 63 wRC+ and 39.8 K% over his final 93 PA from 8/23 to 10/5.

Brewers starting pitchers by rWAR with league rank and team wins... 2017: 14.2 rWAR (8th) 86 W 2018: 11.2 rWAR (15th) 96 W 2019: 9.9 rWAR (15th) 89 W 2021: 22.3 rWAR (2nd) 95 W 2022: 13.0 rWAR (14th) 86 W The Brewers have had an elite rotation for one of the last five full seasons.

I don’t think Wiemer and Taylor having similar value is that far off. Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Not bad for a CF-capable “fourth outfielder” still making league minimum with four years of team control remaining. Sure, Wiemer has higher upside, but also still has some bust factor that has to be considered. TT doesn’t have that same upside, but he’s already established a higher floor as a legit MLB OF. Wiemer would have higher value to a rebuilding team looking for future value, while TT would have higher value to a team looking for present value.