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Guardians have traded for Patrick Bailey from San Francisco in exchange for the 29th pick in this year's draft plus pitching prospect Matt "Tugboat" Wilkinson (45 FV on FanGraphs with a 1.59 ERA / 2.60 FIP over 28 IP at AA to start the season). Considering Cleveland has let Austin Hedges stick around for 1,042 PA of 44 wRC+ with +58.5 DEF their interest in Bailey and his 1,253 PA of 76 wRC+ with +97.1 DEF from 2023 to 2025 should come as no surprise. Thing is that Bailey is off to a horrendous start with 89 PA of 146/213/183 (16 wRC+) that would make Joey Ortiz blush. His xwOBA of .283 so far this year is actually up a bit from last year's .264 mark, but still a considerable step down from the .317 xwOBA he posted over his first two seasons. Will be interesting to see how much his bat bounces back as the season plays out.

With 17.65 K9 | 1.56 BB9 | 0.00 HR9 he is currently sporting a -0.27 FIP.

There were 166 starting pitchers with at least 60 IP last year, Misio's 73.8 Contact% was an impressive 27th on the list. So far this year there are 143 starting pitchers with at least 20 IP, Misio's 64.4 Contact% is thee lowest on the leaderboard almost a full two percent ahead of Dylan Cease at 66.3%.

Looking through the options I'd imagine there are around 15 guys that will be on just about everybody's ballot, but competition for those last five or so spots should be intense. @Brock Beauchamp if you could please also add Robert Gasser to the voting options. Thanks!

Looks like Zerpa came in at $1.095M for his first Arby season. After getting hurt he won't see much of an increase so probably closer to $1.5M for year two. Since he will be out for most of next year too (and who knows how much of the season will maybe be lost to labor strife anyway) he also will be unlikely to see a big increase for his third Arby's trip either. My guess is the Brewers liked him enough to trade for him so they will keep him around as a low salary flier to see if they can't eventually accomplish what they set out to.

From 2023 to 2025 Leonard had 947 PA in AAA with the following numbers... 257/323/458 (104 wRC+) 7.4 BB% | 21.8 K% .200 ISO | .292 BABIP So far over 125 PA this year he is at... 343/419/602 (166 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 18.4 K% .259 ISO | .388 BABIP Obviously the BABIP is unsustainably high, but a nice improvement in plate discipline stats with his BB/K ratio increasing from 0.34 to 0.48. Looks like the big drivers for his strong start are an increased line drive rate (23.3% up to 31.7%) which likely ties into the elevated BABIP and an uptick in his HR to fly ball ratio (16.5% to 21.4%) that explains some of the ISO gains. All of that stuff outside of the plate discipline stats is pretty prone to wild fluctuation over small samples, and looking at the limited StatCast info available on his FanGraphs page it doesn't look like he's seen any meaningful improvement in his contact quality. I don't doubt that Eddys has seen some improvement in his true talent level, but also am pretty sure it's not as big a jump as the numbers imply. All that said, I'd be more than fine with giving him a shot and seeing what he's got since we already know what Perkins is all about. Then again the out of options part complicates things with Yelich looking pretty close to returning. Guess once Christian is back they could option Black back down and keep Eddys as the 13th man then?

From yesterday's minor league game thread it looks like Pena recently posted some pictures of himself in TRats uniform to Instagram (but no accompanying text) perhaps hinting at an imminent return.

PCA has a 97 wRC+ currently and a 98 wRC+ for his career, Dansby is at a 102 wRC+ currently and a 101 wRC+ from 2023 to 2025...there might be a little upside there but Bregman (98 wRC+ vs 122 wRC+ last three years) and Busch (104 wRC+ currently vs 129 wRC+ last two years) are the only real under-performers to this point for the Cubs. Meanwhile they've got Hoerner (129 wRC+ so far vs 106 wRC+ last five years), Happ (149 wRC+ so far vs 117 wRC+ last five years), Suzuki (160 wRC+ so far vs 127 wRC+ last four years), Carson Kelly (140 wRC+ so far vs 115 wRC+ career high last year), and Michael Conforto (160 wRC+ vs 99 wRC+ last five years) who are over-performing their established baselines to pretty large extents. Guys like Ballesteros (153 wRC+) and Shaw (120 wRC+) don't really have established track records but are probably both above their true talent level at the moment as well.

Think Gasser should be an option at some point. Looks like he had some health issues at the start of the season though with his first three appearances spaced out quite a bit on 0327, 0410, and 0425 before getting on a more regular schedule recently with starts on 0430 and today. As far as other lefties go Rob Zastryzny should be back maybe in June or so? Deep cut non-40 Man options at some point later this year could be Tate Kuehner (if they want ground balls / length) or Drew Rom (if they want strikeouts) but neither are really big time strike throwers with walk rates of 10.4% and 10.6% so far this year in AAA, though the league average walk rate in the International League is 11.9% (compared to 9.5% in MLB) so they've at least been better than their current peers in that regard.

Single by Jett and a Quero BOMB give the Sounds an early 2-0 lead top of two.

From 2024 to present Brewers outfielders are 5th in MLB with 21.4 WAR. There wouldn't have been as much playing time available for Joey here as there has been in the less successful organizations he has cycled through since being traded and then DFA'd three different times. At the time we traded Junis he had a nice looking 2.42 ERA but a much more concerning 4.40 FIP. Based on leverage stats, Junis (1.26 gmLI) was 6th on the bullpen depth charts behind Megill (1.95), Hudson (1.52), Koenig (1.52), Peguero (1.48), and Payamps (1.47) with Milner (1.12) and Uribe (1.12) just behind him. Thru the trade on July 28th the Brewers bullpen was 2nd in MLB in both WPA (+8.19) and rWAR (7.1). After the the trade thru the end of the season the Brewers bullpen posted +4.95 WPA (1st) and 4.4 rWAR (2nd) so Junis wasn't missed the rest of the year. Junis got a $3M buyout after 2024, signed for $4.5M in 2025 and proceeded to pitch 66 IP with a 73 ERA- | 83 FIP-. In 2025 the Brewers paid Grant Anderson $750K for 69 IP of 77 ERA- | 93 FIP-. Similar production for almost $7M less dollars. One of the main concerns around the Brewers at the time of the trade was that their rotation had thrown the fewest innings in MLB so they traded from areas of depth OF/RP to address that issue by acquiring a SP in Montas who ate up 57 IP (2nd on the team, two fewer than Peralta) over the remainder of the season

One other thing the Mitchell / Cameron comparison does is exemplify the effect that batted ball profile can have on BABIP. 97-09 Cameron (109 wRC+) 125 BB+ | 147 K+ | 101 BABIP+ 96 LD+ | 82 GB+ | 123 FB+ 107 Pull+ | 98 Cent+ | 93 Oppo+ 22-26 Mitchell (114 wRC+) 137 BB+ | 154 K+ | 130 BABIP+ 107 LD+ | 116 GB+ | 78 FB+ 89 Pull+ | 101 Cent+ | 118 Oppo+ Two very fast players, with similar walk and strikeout heavy profiles, but one was a righty pulling a bunch of fly balls and ended up with an average BABIP while the other sprays a bunch of ground balls and line drives the other way out of the lefty box.

Yeah, I mostly framed it that way just to point out how compressed of a time it really was that the bullpen was melting down (even though it is still the majority of the season to this point). Over their last 486 games prior to this season the bullpen was credited with 78 losses (16% of all games). Their worst season out of the last three was 28 losses (17.2%) in 2024. From 2017 thru 2022 before that they were credited with 154 losses in 871 team games (17.7%). The bullpen losing eight of 33 games (24.2%) is still a healthy clip ahead of those paces and with those eight losses all occurring over a stretch of just 23 games (34.8%) positive regression was bound to be incoming. Maintaining that 16 to 18 percent clip from the last nine years might be tough with eight losses already on the books, but I'd hope by the end of all 162 we're closer to 20% than the current rate.

Looking at the individual WAR components Mitchell is at +9.1 batting, +5.2 base running, and +5.3 fielding runs so far for his career. Over that 1997-2009 window looks like Cameron was at +6.2 batting, +3.9 base running, and +8.7 fielding runs per 557 PA. Part of that base running edge for Mitchell also comes down to UBR (going 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, etc without making outs on the bases) not being tracked for the first five years of Cameron's run so he's probably losing a couple two tree tents of a run there.

When Cameron played from 1995 thru 2011 the league average strikeout rate gradually rose from 15.7% to 18.1%, so his 24.1% K rate shook out to a 147 K+. During the last five years that Mitchell has been active the league average strikeout rate has been between 22.1% and 22.7%, so his 34.3% K rate has shaken out to a 154 K+. Still worse than Cameron, no doubt, but not as much as the raw 10% difference might imply given how much the K rate exploded in the decade between their respective careers. Thru 557 career PA Mitchell has a 114 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR. During his prime from 1997 to 2009 Cameron had a 109 wRC+ and averaged 3.9 WAR per 557 PA.

2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 33.9 K% and .376 BABIP. 2026 Mitchell currently has a 36.0 K% and .408 BABIP. 2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 10.2 BB% and .179 ISO. 2026 Mitchell currently has an 18.4 BB% and .121 ISO. 2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 114 wRC+ over 443 PA. 2026 Mitchell currently has a 114 wRC+ over 114 PA. Garrett has somehow managed to take his already extreme plate profile to even farther out reaches so far this year with no change in the end of line results. Pretty remarkable, really. I'm just happy he's been healthy.

With a pair of NL Central series kicking off today (MIL vs STL and CHC vs CIN) and the season a lil over 1/5th in the books, now seems like as good a time as any to check in the on the five NLC teams to see where they are at, how they got there and how some of the prediction models think they might end up. Every team in the division is currently at least three games over .500, largely on account of playing each other only 32 times so far versus 72 games against the American League with a combined 44 W - 28 L record. CHC (22 W - 12 L) RunDiff: +42 (5th) BaseRuns: +53 (4th) PECTOA (93.6 W) 80.9% WinDiv | 95.2% Plyffs FanGraphs (89.3 W) 52.9% WinDIv | 83.2% Plyffs Position Players 122 wRC+ (2nd) | 5.44 R/G (2nd) +3.27 WPA (3rd) | +13 DRS (6th) Starting Pitchers (179 IP | 12th) 96 ERA- (13th) | 96 FIP- (11th) +0.97 WPA (11th) | 2.9 rWAR (13th) Relief Pitchers (123 IP | 21st) 95 ERA- (14th) | 109 FIP- (22nd) +0.77 WPA (10th) | 0.6 rWAR (15th) [preseason favorites and they have lived up to that billing mostly on account of an across the board dominant position player group while the pitching has been better than average but nothing particularly eye popping] STL (20 W - 14 L) RunDiff: 0 (10th) BaseRuns: -5 (16th) PECOTA (74.4 W) 0.1% WinDiv | 6.0% Plyffs FanGraphs (80.2 W) 6.1% WinDiv | 26.0% Plyffs Position Players 106 wRC+ (7th) | 4.88 R/G (9th) +2.04 WPA (4th) | +15 DRS (4th) Starting Pitchers (177 IP | 13th) 106 ERA- (20th) | 119 FIP- (27th) +0.15 WPA (19th) | 2.3 rWAR (17th) Relief Pitchers (130 IP | 15th) 122 ERA- (27th) | 109 FIP- (23rd) +0.81 WPA (9th) | -0.8 rWAR (27th) [kinda like the Cubs but with a not quite as good position player group and way worse pitching staff. To their credit, the bullpen has held leads with a WPA rank that sticks out and an MLB fewest three credited losses] CIN (20 W - 14 L) RunDiff: -22 (24th) BaseRuns: -29 (27th) PECOTA (78.8 W) 2.0% WinDiv | 22.7% Plyffs FanGraphs (80.6 W) 6.0% WinDiv | 27.1% Plyffs Position Players 88 wRC+ (26th) | 4.15 R/G (23rd) -0.29 WPA (16th) | -3 DRS (23rd) Starting Pitchers (171 IP | 18th) 112 ERA- (24th) | 106 FIP- (22nd) +0.33 WPA (16th) | 2.0 rWAR (21st) Relief Pitchers (132 IP | 10th) 96 ERA- (15th) | 110 FIP- (24th) +2.96 WPA (1st) | 1.3 rWAR (7th) [surviving almost exclusively on Win Probability Added from the bullpen] PIT (19 W - 16 L) RunDiff: +31 (6th) BaseRuns: +35 (5th) PECOTA (81.9 W) 6.5% WinDiv | 39.9% Plyffs FanGraphs (85.2 W) 23.1% WinDiv | 59.6% Plyffs Position Players 105 wRC+ (8th) | 5.14 R/G (6th) -1.41 WPA (22nd) | +3 DRS (19th) Starting Pitchers (175 IP | 15th) 89 ERA- (8th) | 82 FIP- (2nd) +1.40 WPA (6th) | 3.3 rWAR (10th) Relief Pitchers (143 IP | 6th) 88 ERA- (8th) | 96 FIP- (12th) +1.52 WPA (4th) | 1.0 rWAR (8th) [right there with the Brewers for the best pitching in the division but have been held back somewhat by an unclutch group of hitters so far with that negative WPA ranking] MIL (18 W - 15 L) RunDiff: +45 (4th) BaseRuns: +22 (7th) PECOTA (83.7 W) 10.5% WinDiv | 54.3% Plyffs FanGraphs (82.6 W) 11.9% WinDiv | 40.6% Plyffs Position Players 96 wRC+ (18th) | 5.21 R/G (4th) +1.29 WPA (7th) | +11 DRS (8th) Starting Pitchers (158 IP | 23rd) 85 ERA- (5th) | 88 FIP- (7th) +1.30 WPA (8th) | 3.7 rWAR (6th) Relief Pitchers (135 IP | 7th) 90 ERA- (9th) | 87 FIP- (7th) -1.10 WPA (25th) | 0.4 rWAR (17th) [offense has run boom or bust largely on account of injuries and being among the worst with bases empty (74 wRC+ | 29th) but among the best with RISP (136 wRC+ | 2nd). Pitching has been great outside of a 23 game stretch where the bullpen was credited with eight losses]

Mitchell was hitting 393/528/714 for a 238 wRC+ with RISP that ranked 3rd out of 132 batters with at least 30 PA with RISP entering the game today. His 20 RBI are 5th on that same leaderboard. Hard to be much more productive than that.

Yeah, for as much of a head start as Tatum, Giannis, and Jokic had on their playoff careers it's looking like SGA might be the first superstar of the post-LBJ/Curry Era to end up with two rings.

Entering today the Reds have scored 4.27 runs per game (20th) with a 90 wRC+ (25th) and +0.44 WPA (13th) The Brewers were at 5.31 runs per game (3rd) with a 99 wRC+ (14th) and +1.74 WPA (5th). The Reds record is primarily because of their bullpen at this point with an MLB best +3.12 Win Probability Added though their run prevention (94 ERA- | 14th) and peripherals (109 FIP- | 24th) suggest they are ripe for regression as the season rolls along. All of run differential (+45 to -22), BaseRuns (+24 to -29), PECOTA (58.0% to 25.2% playoff odds), and FanGraphs (42.3% to 26.9% playoff odds) favor the Brewers at this point.

Nashville holds on to win 5-1. Rom & Yoho combine for 4.1 scoreless hitless relief innings with 1 BB | 5 K.

HOLY HANDELFRY walks it off with a two run bomb in the tenth.

TRats picked up a pair of runs via Bitonti bomb, Dickinson single and Ragsdale double in the second but trail 4-2 heading to bottom of four.

Wilson tied up two each after eight. Handelfry double (& walk), Luis Lameda two RBI single (& walk), Juan Ortuno single (& walk), and Pedro Ibarguen (two singles) have accounted for most of the offense. Enderson Mercado went three scoreless (3 H | 2 BB | 5 K).

Looks like Cooper Pratt was a late scratch from the Sounds game today as they go up 1-0 bottom three via a Leonard single, Matos walk, Lara HBP, Wilken ground out sequence, and Jett walks to load the bases for Quero who walks home the second run of the inning.