sveumrules

Feels like some kind of consolidation trade will happen this offseason for the OF at least. Even if they go something like Yelich to primary DH/occasional LF, keep Renfroe for one last Arby's year in RF and hold on to Taylor as 4th OF that leaves two spots for the four AAA OF. Frelick seems like the high man on the totem pole currently, obviously the FO is high on Ruiz or they wouldn't have dealt for him. That leaves Wiemer or Mitchell as the trade candidates for me. Would prefer to keep Joey myself since he is the only one with real plus power, whereas there is some skillset overlap amongst the other three. No matter what happens, it's pretty crazy for an organization that apparently can't develop hitters to have half a lineup of legit position player prospects on the precipice in AAA. Oh, and some dude named Jackson too.

It's no Habush, Habush, Davis & Rottier

Coming into the season Ruiz has 1695 PAs from R to AA with 124 BBs (7.3%) and 404 Ks (23.8%). This year in AA/AAA Esteury has 379 PAs with 54 BBs (14.2%) and 65 Ks (17.2%). No doubt, playing in hitters parks has helped his stat line this year, but so has overhauling his approach. Minor league ballparks are hopefully temporary, a guy's plate approach is a lot stickier.

01 Jackson Chourio 02 Sal Frelick 03 Joey Wiemer 04 Brice Turang 05 Garrett Mitchell 06 Esteury Ruiz 07 Ethan Small 08 Robert Gasser 09 Tyler Black 10 Jeferson Quero 11 Eric Brown Jr. 12 Felix Valerio 13 Hendry Mendez 14 Eduardo Garcia 15 Hedbert Perez 16 Mario Feliciano 17 Carlos Rodriguez PITCHER 18 Stiven Cruz 19 Kevin Briceno 20 Luis Castillo

"Compounding the issue, Wong was replaced by Pedro Severino, the third catcher on the club. If you're going to pinch-hit in the five-hole in a high leverage situation, your backup to your backup catcher shouldn't be part of the plan. If that is how they "drew it up," then the Brewers will need a lot of help from luck and randomness to make a postseason run." Wong has a 365 OPS vs LHP this year, and a devilish 666 OPS vs LHP over the last three seasons. Severino has a 639 OPS vs LHP this year (only 17 PAs) and a 769 OPS vs LHP over the last three seasons. Third catcher or not, Severino has a better track record vs LHP than Wong. The only two "needle mover" bats on the market got dealt to the Padres in the same trade. Mancini isn't a clear upgrade over Tellez/McCutchen, Benintendi isn't a CF. Drury would have been fine depth, but Brosseau has a 134 OPS+ in that role already, kind of hard to improve on that from your backup IF. Would I have preferred for Stearns & company to upgrade the offense? Of course. But I also understand that based on how the market shook out there was limited opportunity to do so & the best they realistically could have done was an Escobar type move that increases the depth, but doesn't really impact the top end at all. Even the Padres, who acquired the two best hitters on the market in Soto & Bell, will be "needing a lot of luck to score enough runs against the best teams in the league." Their most bullish post-deadline World Series odds of 9.6% at FanGraphs (only 2% on 538 and 5.1% on PECOTA) are still solidly behind the Dodgers (15.8%), Mets (14.0%), Braves (12.0%) in the NL and the Astros (15.1%) and Yankees (11.0%) in the AL.

Think he see the writing on the wall that he is playing for his next contract the rest of the season. Gotta imagine a World Series MVP would make him a few extra million, Jorge Soler got 3/36!!

If our deadline was as bad as many are making it out to be, why would the Mets (who already have a better record & World Series odds than us with their current FO) even want Stearns to begin with?

Esteury has already made MLB, put up legit stats at AA/AAA, plays CF and has a carrying tool in his speed. I had fun following Tristan in the boxes this year, but he is pretty much LF only with a collection of average-ish tools and hasn't even made AA yet. There's not much of an objective case for Peters being a better prospect than Ruiz. Gasser/Kelly is a little closer. Antoine might have better raw stuff, but also more reliever risk due to his injury history & command issues. Robert has a higher floor with a better shot at sticking in the rotation & maybe some sneaky upside lurking in there. If we're looking at two lefties in A+ I'll take the one with 30.5 K% | 7.4 BB% | 0.8 HR9 (3.27 FIP/3.46 xFIP) over the one with 30.7 K% | 13.4 BB% | 0.6 HR9 (3.85 FIP/4.01 xFIP).

In Quintana's last ten appearance against the Brewers going back to 2019 he has a 5.15 ERA over 43 IP.

The prospects we got back (Gasser/Ruiz) are better than the prospects we sent out (Kelly/Peters).

I guess I don’t equate statements about the team’s economic reality to be crying poor. My motive is to find out what others consider to be “crying poor” because I couldn’t recall any instance of Mark A doing so.

When did he cry poor the first time?

A+. Upgraded bullpen without trading our #1 best hitter Keston Hiura.

Where did I describe Rosenthal not wanting to be here?

Stearns is embarrassing himself because he couldn’t force Rosenthal to sign with the Brewers as a free agent?

Moose, Pomeranz, Lyles,

Giants probably offered more money. Then they fell out of contention & don't need him anymore, so buh bye.

Bummer, Peters was having a good year, Was hoping it would only cost like Zavier Warren or Gabe Holt or something.

Even with Haniger he begat Parra who begat Davies who begat Urias, so he is still kinda paying off all these years later. When Cooper was dealt we had Thames/Aguilar raking & under control for years to come. My only complaint is I wish we would have gotten the return the Yankees got from the Marlins (Michael King) instead of the return we got from the Yankees (Ty Webb).

Phil followed up his 51 IP of 2.81 ERA / 3.93 FIP relief work last year with 35 IP of 5.05 ERA / 4.43 FIP this year before being demoted.

Yeah, I think the closest would have been something like Ashby (Gore), Chourio (Abrams), Frelick (Hassell), Wiemer (Woods), and Gasser (Susana).

Quintana & Stratton are listed on the STL rest of season depth chart at FanGraphs, so the updated odds do include them. Think that is why the Playoff/Division odds shifted slightly but the WS odds stayed the same.

Arizona Complex League games should be going on, might be able to catch one of those?

Kelly was probably thee highest ceiling pitcher in the system, so hurts to deal him for sure. At the same time there was the injury risk, the command struggles leading to a likely reliever outcome, the impending 40 man decision, we just got Gasser. That’s a lot of mitigating circumstances. I would have hoped if Antoine was traded it was for someone with team control beyond this season, so we got that at least. Though a 36 year old reliever with a short track record of MLB success wasn’t quite what I had in mind. Guess I’ll hope that Bush’s past struggles help give him the resolve needed to get big outs during a postseason run & a couple two tree years from now that Antoine Kelly is striking out MLB hitters for the Rangers or whomsoever.

Updated FanGraphs odds with Rogers/Bush instead of Hader… 90.2% playoffs, 80.8% division, 5.4% World Series