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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Broke my list into rough tiers with a little commentary on each… 01 Joey Wiemer 02 Ethan Small 03 Brice Turang (Wiemer is a beast, K% only concern. Small & Turang on the precipice of MLB) 04 Jackson Chourio 05 Garrett Mitchell 06 Sal Frelick (Chourio off to a blazing start, but still a long ways to go. Mitchell/Frelick struggling at AA, but plenty of season left to get it going) 07 Antoine Kelly 08 Felix Valerio 09 Tyler Black 10 Hendry Mendez (Antoine is prolly the highest upside arm in the system. Felix, Tyler & Hendry posting impressive BB/K ratios for young hitters) 11 Jeferson Quero 12 Eduardo Garcia 13 Hedbert Perez 14 Joe Gray Jr. 15 Zavier Warren 16 Mario Feliciano 17 Freddy Zamora (Feliciano off to an encouraging start after a lost season, JGJ & Zavier heating up a little of late, gonna be a long season with lots of ups & downs for the Carolina teenage trio at the top, but I still believe, and Freddy’s going to need another strong second half to salvage his spot) 18 Stiven Cruz 19 Carlos Rodriguez PITCHER 20 Michele Vassalotti (Last three spots were the toughest, but decided to give the young arms with the lights out K/BB ratios the votes.)
  2. sveumrules
    Bummer for Freddy, but sounds like he should be ready to go again later in the season. Hopefully he can rest up & come back fresh for the stretch run. Believe Small has missed his last couple starts with non-COVID illness, they might not want to throw him straight into the MLB fire after that (has also walked 15.2% of batters faced this year), so could see Lindblom if they want to stick with the six man rotation during those stretches without off days.
  3. sveumrules
    Yeah, I think something like Frelick & Small at least gets you in the convo for half a season Xander. Might not be the winning bid, but its a legit offer. But then throw JDM in on top of that for LoCain's dead money and the deal kind of falls apart.
  4. sveumrules
    Once a month during the season might be a little aggressive, think a yearly schedule of pre-season, pre-draft/deadline, post-draft/deadline and then offseason is probably enough to capture the ebbs & flows. But if someone wants to count the votes every month I’ll show up at the polls. Just post our lists here?
  5. sveumrules
    With one fourth of the season in the books (on the servers?) here is how the Brewers offense & position player group have fared thus far… wRC+: 107 (13th) WAR: 6.5 (9th) R/G: 4.78 (6th) DSR: +16 (4th) BsR: +3.9 (7th) Ca: 91 wRC+ (11th) 1.0 WAR (6th) 1B: 136 wRC+ (9th) 0.9 WAR (9th) 2B: 104 wRC+ (9th) 0.5 WAR (13th) 3B: 81 wRC+ (25th) 0.3 WAR (22nd) SS: 130 wRC+ (5th) 1.6 WAR (2nd) LF: 100 wRC+ (14th) 0.4 WAR (16th) CF: 66 wRC+ (23rd) 0.0 WAR (22nd) RF: 127 wRC+ (9th) 1.0 WAR (9th) DH: 110 wRC+ (11th) 0.3 WAR (5th)
  6. sveumrules
    Small also slipped in the rankings because he didn’t have the high velocity to match his eye popping strikeout totals. Turned out he has elite spin & other qualities that have made his fastball so effective. I believe he has also added velocity since the Brewers drafted him. Brewers also seem to be believers in attack angle, extension & other secondary traits that can help pitchers translate their success at higher levels. Given his size, I wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell checks some of those boxes as well.
  7. sveumrules
    Yeah, Milner had a 95 ERA- & 87 FIP- entering the game. He’s been a slightly above average reliever so far this year. That he is like the 7th guy in the pecking order is a testament to the depth of the pen.
  8. sveumrules
    Yup. Hadn’t pitched since the 16th anyway so get him a nice short outing after the long layoff.
  9. sveumrules
    Kind of interesting looking at Freddy’s batted ball outcomes this year, actually at a 44.7% ground ball rate compared to a 33.5% career rate. His pitch mix is pretty much the same as it was last year, checking StatCast his revamped slider could maybe be playing a role? 14.4” of horizontal break this year vs 8.2” last year. Something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
  10. sveumrules
    It’s entirely possible that’s where things end up shaking out, they certainly have to a pretty extreme extent thus far in his scattered PAs. Ultimately, the only way we’ll ever get closer to finding out is by giving him more consistent opportunities. With Freddy’s extreme K & fly ball profile, I’d be playing Keston at 2B for most all of his starts. Then between 1B/DH they should be able to find another 3-4 games a week against both RHP & LHP.
  11. sveumrules
    On the season LoCa has started 26 of 40 now & he just sat two games/three days. He really only has played regularly when he started seven of eight games from 5/6 to 5/14, outside of that he hasn’t started more than two games in a row. I think they’ve been doing a pretty good job of toeing the line between giving Lorenzo a chance to get it going & not overexposing him with TT giving him regular days off. If Cain is still sitting around a 40 wRC+ in a couple two tree weeks I’d guess they start increasing Tyrone’s opportunities so he still has a couple months before the deadline to show what he’s got.
  12. sveumrules
    Hiura has hit RHP better than LHP so far in his career, yes, but analytics would indicate the sample is likely too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from about Keston’s true talent levels in that regard… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/batter-pitcher-splits-crib-sheet/ Batters don’t have their platoon splits stabilize until at least 1,000 plate appearances against each hand (around 2,000 for right-handed batters)
  13. sveumrules
    Benintendi’s negative/neutral overall defensive value is a result of the positional adjustment for playing LF. His actual fielding in LF has graded out at +29 DRS and +10.7 UZR for his career. OAA has been less impressed at -16, though that doesn’t include throwing, where Benintendi has graded out positively by both DRS (+8) and UZR (+6.9) over the course of his LF career. Either way, I don’t really see the fit. If the Brewers do decide to pursue an upgrade before the deadline I would expect it to be more of a true CF than someone like Benintendi who has played less than 10% of his career innings there.
  14. sveumrules
    Coming up on being done with the first quarter of the season, here is a summary of where the various projections see the Brewers currently… FanGraphs: 93 Wins (tied for 3rd with HOU/NYM) Win WS: 11.3% (4th) RS/G: 4.41 (8th) BPro: 95.5 Wins (4th) Win WS: 11.2% (3rd) RS: 773 (tied for 6th with PHI) 538: 95 Wins (4th) Win WS: 8% (4th)
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, rad to see both Rasmussen (38 IP | 2.33 ERA | 2.70 FIP) and JPF (19 IP | 0.00 ERA | 1.62 FIP) off to dominant starts with the Rays this year. Even radder that the Brewers have progressed to the point where they can deal away two legit arms & still have the 2nd best pitching staff by FIP based WAR/4th best by runs allowed based WAR so far this year.
  16. sveumrules
    Is the end near or is the end maybe like 8 years away at soonest?
  17. sveumrules
    Is the end near or is the end maybe like 8 years away at soonest?
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers next pick isn't until #63, so I've got no problem with them picking someone they might be higher on than industry consensus. Could be mis-remembering, but wasn't Small considered a reach when we drafted him in the late first round? He's turned out okay so far.
  19. sveumrules
    Hiura’s samples everywhere are small. 838 PAs, even if they came consecutively as an every day player over the course of a season and change to start a player’s career, would still have some noise in it. Keston has taken those 838 PAs over the course of four partial seasons covering almost three calendar years with a pandemic & at least three different MLB sanctioned baseballs in play, there is sooo much noise in that sample. Now split it up into even smaller samples, 226 career PAs vs LHP & 21 PAs vs LHP this year, and you’re introducing exponentially more noise. According to the FanGraphs glossary, platoon splits start to stabilize around 1,500 total PAs, The Book indicates it is considerably higher than that. The only thing we have enough evidence to truly surmise at this point is Keston is a brutal fielder with a lot of power and even more swing & miss. Where the levels of all the details surrounding that finally settle is very much yet to be determined.
  20. sveumrules
    They mentioned on Quick Pitch that the Brewers are now an MLB best 101-60 (.627 W%) in one run games going back to 2018, with no other team over a .600 W%.
  21. sveumrules
    By GameScore, Freddy's start last night was tied for the 3rd best of his career... 04/03/19 | 8 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 0 BB | 11 K (GSc: 89) 06/26/18 | 7 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 1 BB | 10 K (GSc: 84) 05/16/22 | 7 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 1 BB | 10 K (GSc: 82) 05/11/21 | 7 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 1 BB | 8 K (GSc: 82)
  22. sveumrules
    Going to the game tonight so keep checking back to see if they decided to put Willy on the IL and call up Brice for his MLB debut. Kinda feel like if that was the plan it would have leaked to the internet somehow by now though.
  23. sveumrules
    Hiura doesn't have enough MLB PAs for his platoon splits to have stabilized yet, that is probably why the front office hasn't given them much importance to this point.
  24. sveumrules
    Don’t think Mullins is close to 2018 Yelich value wise. Christian posted 17.5 WAR and a 121 OPS+ over 2,812 PAs with the Marlins. He had four full seasons of All Star level production. Mullins has posted 6.8 WAR and a 113 OPS+ in his career so far. Sure, his 2021 was better than anything Yelich did with the Marlins, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty how real/sustainable that level of production is for him. If he picks it up some between now & the deadline, maybe he gets dealt for a similar haul, but I think BAL would prefer to keep him to build around with some of their big prospects finally hitting MLB this year. Cedric is also a year older & has one fewer year of team control than Yelich did when dealt.
  25. sveumrules
    Arcia did try toning down the leg kick at one point with the Brewers… https://reviewingthebrew.com/2020/02/27/brewers-orlando-arcia-looks-completely-different-year/amp/
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