sveumrules

Too much winning. Facing a lefty they’ve never scored off, with two of their best RH hitters out, a Sunday lineup that’ll be lucky to score two runs, with a guy who’s got a long way to go be a reliable MLB starter on the mound, not to mention Murph burning thru the bullpen even more than usual in the doubleheader yesterday…win 8-5.

Made and his reps would probably need something approaching the nine years $140M that Konnor Griffin just got. Misio and his reps would likely be looking for something in excess of the six years $75M that Spencer Strider extended for over three years ago now.

Will probably need some more time to stabilize a bit, but in the early going of initial assignments here are how the Brewers affiliates stack up age-wise relative to their respective leagues... Wilson Batters: 19.6 (youngest) Batters League Avg Age: 20.3 Wilson Pitchers: 19.7 (youngest) Pitchers League Avg Age: 21.9 [big gap on the pitching side at a year plus younger than second place (KCR affiliate at 20.8) and over two years younger than league average] Wisco Batters: 21.7 (2nd youngest) Batters League Avg Age: 22.2 Wisco Pitchers: 20.8 (youngest) Pitchers League Avg Age: 22.5 [five teams grouped together between 21.6 and 21.9 on the batter age side, pitchers again with a solid gap over the second youngest team (SDP affiliate at 21.6) and league average] Biloxi Batters: 23.8 (3rd youngest) Batters League Avg Age: 24.3 Biloxi Pitchers: 22.6 (youngest) Pitchers League Avg Age: 24.2 [batters continuing towards age appropriateness while the pitchers maintain a similar youth gap to the second youngest team (ATL affiliate at 23.3) and league average]

How does this pull the rug out from underneath Made or Pena? If anything the Chourio and Pratt extensions should give them extra motivation to perform well if they are interested in signing pre-debut extensions when their time comes. Pratt will likely get first crack at SS in MIL out of the three, but that doesn't preclude him from moving to 3B or 2B if one of Jesus or Luis push the issue with their own performance down the road. That $72M isn't getting them anywhere with Contreras or Turang or Misio, and they are the only players on the MLB roster really worth exploring extensions with. I guess they could have locked up Uribe with some of that money instead but I feel like I remember you thinking the 4/35 remaining on Ashby was too rich for the Brewers blood. Woodruff threw 106 IP last year between ramping up in the minors and his MLB work, so there's a pretty decent chance he should exceed that total this year. Since his return to MLB he has 69.2 IP of 78 ERA- | 82 FIP- and has averaged 93.1 MPH on his fastball. You're selling one of the best SP in franchise history short on numerous fronts.

The Brewers signing him to this extension at this time is a pretty good indicator what kind of timeline they probably had/have in mind.

Eight year deal should buy out at least one free agent year before the option years. 2026-29: pre-arb 2030-32: arby 2033-35: free agent

This probably comes as a surprise to no one, but per the numbers on BRef the average hitter age for Nashville is 24.1 years old, youngest in the league ahead of the PIT affiliate Indianapolis at 24.7, and a full two years below the league average of 26.1 years old. Out of 214 players to get at least 10 PA in the International League to start the season recently called up & extended Konnor Griffin is the only one in his age 20 season. Luis Lara and Cooper Pratt are two of five players playing in their age 21 season (along with top prospects Max Clark & Walker Jennings). There are another dozen players in their age 22 season including both Luke Adams and Jett Williams. That gives the Brewers four of the 18 youngest players in the league. Sounds pitchers (average age 27.1) are closer to league average (27.3) with Carlos Rodriguez and Logan Henderson the youngest in their age 24 seasons.

With his defense and speed the question for Lara was always if his bat was going to turn out more like Perkins (84 career wRC+) or Frelick (100 career wRC+ with a 114 last year). Given that he never really dominated at any minor league level (112 wRC+ at Carolina, 96 wRC+ at Wisco, 116 wRC+ at Biloxi) I've tended to lean more the Blake way over the years, but when we consider that Sal was still a sophmore at Boston College when he was 20 while Luis was more than holding his own in the Southern League that kinda tilts the scales more towards a possible Frelick outcome. Sal didn't even get drafted until he was 21, debuted in MLB at 23, first full season at 24. Luis could debut this year or next, and get his first full season as a 22 or 23 year old depending how things play out. Either way, Lara definitely flies under the radar. Cooper Pratt landed on the back half of numerous Top 50 lists this offseason on the strength of his SS defense while hitting 238/343/348 (107 wRC+) with a 12.7 BB% | 15.2 K% and 31 SB / 5 CS as a 20 year old. Lara was the same age, is also a top notch up the middle defender in CF and hit 257/369/343 (116 wRC+) with a 14.1 BB% | 16.2 K% and 44 SB / 7 CS on the same team. Obviously Pratt's larger frame gives him more room to dream on future power production, but even if Lara tops out around Sal on a power level that is still around a three win player if he can manage something like a league average batting line. Pretty good stuff for a guy that can't even crack the organizational Top Ten.

I took it as you contributing to the Turang is going to be gone talk you find so frustrating. After Hoerner’s $141M extension the cost to extend Turang is probably over $100M greater than the $50M that Pratt just got. One doesn’t necessarily preclude the other, they still have four years to try and sign Turang. Locking in Pratt early at a potential bargain could even give them flexibility down the road to pay Turang FA rates into his thirties depending how each player continues to develop in the interim, what kind of changes are made in the new CBA, etc

Your comment “Insane if true. Meanwhile Turang is going to get away” is literally thee very first one on the Pratt extension thread.

This year is Turang’s first of four Arby’s seasons as a Super Two so free agent after 2029.

Undrafted free agent Nick Monile is straight out of Brewers central casting looking at his BRef page. Lefty hitting 5'8" and 175 lbs outfielder. In two years of collegiate play at Niagara and North Florida he registered 467 PA of 340/468/454 with 84 BB to 42 K and 21 SB/7 CS. In two years of summer wood bat play he came in at 212 PA of 285/502/326 with 61 BB to 18 K and 20 SB/5 CS.

Ashby started warming up top of four when the score was 4-1, then the Brewers scored two runs in the bottom half to make it 6-1. I’d imagine Murphy brought Ashby in because he was already warmed up anyway. The score ended up 14-2, but Murphy didn’t pitch Ashby in a 14-2 game.

Believe Vegas has typically been a couple two tree wins higher on the Brewers than the projection systems during this competitive run, but I'd imagine the over still would have hit for pretty much every season except 2022 which was the lone year they underperformed their FG preseason projection.

FanGraphs preseason NL Central projections... CHC: 84.8 W | 35.7% Div PIT: 83.5 W | 27.6% Div MIL: 83.0 W | 24.8% Div CIN: 78.4 W | 8.2% Div STL: 75.4 W | 3.7% Div & now after the first three games... MIL: 84.0 W | 31.6% Div CHC: 83.9 W | 31.5% Div PIT: 82.3 W | 22.5% Div CIN: 79.1 W | 10.4% Div STL: 75.4 W | 3.9% Div Of course we know that the Brewers have beaten the FG Depth Chart preseason projected win totals by 87 W for the nine complete full seasons in their database since Stearns/Arnold got here back in 2016 (and by 29 W for the last two seasons managed by Murphy). Between that, and the Brewers winning at least 86 games for each of the last eight full seasons running, those 83/84 W projections above and the 83.5 W currently up at PECOTA feel a lot closer to a floor than a median to me. Should be another fun summer.

Gotta make a trek up to Uecker statue at the top of the terrace level behind home plate. If you get in early and have time before the game The Selig Experience on the LF loge level is a fun trip through the team's history. Not a ton of stuff to really do at the TRats stadium, but if you like walking there is a paved trail just north of the parking lot entrance that goes through some of the surrounding nature areas. If you stroll it in the afternoon before a game sometimes you'll catch a glimpse of some players working out causally while the ground crew preps the field.

Kinda wild how the Brewers didn't have a losing streak longer than three games all of 2024, then come out and lose their first four games of 2025 (by a puny 32 runs at that), before reeling off the most wins in MLB for the season and franchise history too. During the broadcast they mentioned the Brewers didn't have a four plus run comeback until August of last year, now they start 2026 by pulling one off in the third game. Fun stuff. Brewers ended the game 6 for 20 with RISP. For the 2024/25 seasons managed by Murph the Brewers were at 3,427 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (4th) for 1,134 RBI (2nd) with RISP. It's not going to work every time, but put enough pressure on and it will work about 59% of the time (Pat's career W%). Not quite as effective as that one cologne in Anchorman, but still pretty pretty good...like 2nd best in MLB by one win behind the Dodgers since he took over in 2024.

Scrolling through the 2025 schedule page on BRef looks like the Brewers went 18 W - 9 L (.667 W%) last year on Sundays, which means they only went 79 W - 56 L (.585 W%) the other six days of the week.

Try to give the White Sox a freebie with three free runs on shoddy OF defense plus a lineup of injury necessitated platoon subs…win anyway. Murphy now +327 runs in his first 327 games.

Over the 2024/25 seasons the Brewers scored the 4th most runs in MLB (4.89 R/G) while allowing the 2nd fewest runs in MLB (3.94 R/G). On the FanGraphs Projected Standings page they are currently forecast to score the 20th most runs per game rest of season (4.45 R/G), while allowing the 13th fewest runs per game rest of season (4.41 R/G). Over the first 326 games Pat Murphy has managed the Brewers they have an almost perfectly matching +325 run differential, FanGraphs computers think the Brewers will run a +7 run differential over their next 160 games.

From 2022 to 2025 there were 179 players with at least 1,500 PA, here is how Hoerner stacked up over his 2,495 PA (32nd)... 105 wRC+ (105th) | +19.7 BsR (6th) | +49.5 DEF (9th) | 17.4 WAR (19th) 75 BB+ (148th) | 46 K+ (3rd) | 115 AVG+ (15th) | 66 ISO+ (174th) The quote from the Passan tweet about Nico doing everything well - defense, base running, contact skill is kinda funny. He is certainly elite at those three things, but typically power is considered part of "everything" and he is severely lacking there. Even with that paucity of pop he has been so good at the rest of it that he cracks the Top Twenty in WAR over the last four years anyway. The Cubs just signed up for Hoerner's age 30 to 35 seasons, looking at this leaderboard of primary second basemen during the Thirty Team Era from their age 30 to 35 seasons and I'd say these four guys probably represent something like a best case scenario... Roberto Alomar (3,978 PA | 24.3 WAR) 114 wRC+ | +14.8 BsR | +26.0 DEF Marcus Semien (3,453 PA | 23.2 WAR) 112 wRC+ | +13.8 BsR | +47.0 DEF *2026 is his age 35 season Ian Kinsler (4,038 PA | 22.0 WAR) 106 wRC+ | +14.5 BsR | +35.0 DEF Placido Polanco (3,566 PA | 17.9 WAR) 98 wRC+ | 0.0 BsR | +67.8 DEF For $141M through 2032 something like Mark Ellis with 3,034 PA of 93 wRC+ | +12.7 BsR | +57.4 DEF for 14.7 WAR from age 30 to 35 would probably be in the neighborhood of an even money outcome.

Jackson Chourio has had a very nice first two years, becoming the youngest player in MLB history with back-to-back 20-homer, 20-stolen base seasons. His slash lines have been remarkably similar, going .275/.327/.464 as a rookie to .270/.308/.463 in his sophomore season. The statistical similarity between Jackson's first two seasons is pretty wild... HR: 21 to 21 SO: 121 to 121 SB: 22 to 21 CS: 7 to 7 RBI: 79 to 78 HBP: 3 to 3 3B: 4 to 4 1B: 91 to 88 H: 145 to 148 Even the bigger counting stat differences are only like six (29 to 35 doubles), eight (80 to 88 runs), and nine (39 to 30 walks). Hopefully when he comes back from the hand injury he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the year while nearly mirroring something like his 346 PA of 311/370/559 (154 wRC+) from June 2nd to September 15th in 2024, or maybe something along the lines of his run with 253 PA of 309/356/528 (143 wRC+) from May 22nd last year until the hammy took him out for a month at the end of July.

The first season of Kiermaier's four year peak run came during his age 24 season so the ages are pretty close too. No doubt that PCA has more upside between age and power production, but the extreme nature of his plate approach also presents more downside risk than usual. In his breakout year he still had a .287 OBP. We already know that Kiemaier put up his 107 wRC+ over 1,734 PA, what will the next couple two tree thousand PA look like for PCA? At present the entirety of his offense value is coming from that 150 ISO+ that ranked him 22nd out of 215 players with at lest 400 PA last year. But his 52 BB+ (208th) eats into that value considerably. His extreme fly ball (131 FB+ | 7th) and pull rates (130 Pull+ | 6th) also limit the ceiling on his batting average despite top end sprint speed. So what is more likely to continue with the accumulation of time, PCA walking 50% less than league average or isolated slugging 50% above league average? Given the extreme nature of his swing tendencies (59.5 Swing% | 2nd) versus how hard it is to maintain a 150 ISO+ over larger samples (only 11 players with at least 2,000 PA from 2021-25 have a 150 ISO+ or higher), I think that his walk rate will be stickier than his isolated slugging over the course of his contract. His elite base running and defense make him one of thee highest floor players in the league, but his conversely extreme swing rates and batted ball profile put him in that precarious Javy Baez zone at the plate. And hey, Javy managed a single season peak of a 131 wRC+ and a four year run with 1,988 PA of 113 wRC+ before he fell off. But Baez also had a much more evenly distributed batted ball profile in that 131 wRC+ season at 101 LD+ | 105 GB+ | 92 FB+ | 101 Pull+ | 96 Cent+ | 104 Oppo+ allowing him to run a 116 BABIP+ and 114 AVG+ that PCA is unlikely to approach with his current tendencies.

Given his defense, the obvious PCA comp for me coming up was Kevin Kiermaier... 2025 PCA (647 PA | 109 wRC+) 52 BB+ | 109 K+ | 100 AVG+ | 150 ISO+ +6.7 BsR | +17.4 DEF | 5.4 WAR 2014-17 KK (per 647 PA | 107 wRC+) 85 BB+ | 96 K+ | 103 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ +6.3 BsR | +19.0 DEF | 5.4 WAR About as close as it gets overall...two points of wRC+, same WAR, 1.2 run difference on combined base running and defense. PCA has a massive edge in power (but a minuscule walk rate) where Kiermaier got to his value in the box with a more balanced approach.

Fischer has a total of 87 professional PA with the Timber Rattlers. Even recent guys on the super fastest of tracks like Soto (8 games at AA) and Pujols (3 games at AAA) got a little upper minors experience before their MLB debuts,. Maybe he gets a shot later this year if he really pushes the issue at Biloxi/Nashville, but I’d guess both of Jett & Wilken get a crack at 3B before Andrew based on proximity & 40 Man considerations.