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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    How is Narvaez April sample outsized? His PAs by month were 79, 52, 82, 76, 79, and 77. The April sample was the same size as every other mon-May month. Why say it was inflated by April (972 OPS) & not that it was deflated by September (427 OPS)? Better yet, why slice it up into smaller unreliable samples at all? Last year Omar posted an .805 OPS vs RHP, since 2018 Omar has posted a .804 OPS vs RHP, that’s probably the best estimate of his true talent level vs RHP. Also curious what metrics had Omar below average behind the plate in 2021 & now regressing as the year went on to boot?
  2. sveumrules
    Narvaez put up 2.8 fWAR for 2.5 million dollars in 2021, that is an incredible value not a sunk cost.
  3. sveumrules
    Narvaez put up 2.8 fWAR for 2.5 million dollars in 2021, that is an incredible value not a sunk cost.
  4. sveumrules
    Narvaez was 4th in framing runs (+8.8) last year & posted +3 DRS, what metrics are you seeing that have him below average? Since Stearns & company took over Brewers catchers are 2nd in MLB in WAR, better than Posey & the Giants, better than JTR & the Phil’s, way better than Sal Perez & the Royals, etc… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=35&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
  5. sveumrules
    Narvaez was 4th in framing runs (+8.8) last year & posted +3 DRS, what metrics are you seeing that have him below average? Since Stearns & company took over Brewers catchers are 2nd in MLB in WAR, better than Posey & the Giants, better than JTR & the Phil’s, way better than Sal Perez & the Royals, etc… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=35&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
  6. sveumrules
    If no other team wanted McCutchen he would have signed for even less money than he did. That he signed for more than the minimum indicates other teams likely wanted him. JBJ was the contract dump. If Renfroe was the contract dump Boston would have sent prospects back to us instead of the other way around.
  7. sveumrules
    Things like Top 10 at their position or Fantasy Rankings are largely irrelevant. An offense with the 11th best player at each position last year would have put up like 25 WAR, around 6th/7th in MLB. Something like defense, which is tied directly to the offense (& worth zero Fantasy Points) is much more relevant, but the Brewers hitters are good at that so shhhhh. All that really matters is the total value the position player group produces as a whole. Last year FanGraphs had them 10th in WAR, in 2019 they were 10th, in 2018 they were 6th. Over the last four seasons in aggregate they are 9th. Sure, I’d love it if that value came a little more from the hitting side than the defense/base running side, but buying wRC+ is much more expensive than buying DRS & the Brewers only have so much money to spend. If the offense is still sputtering 40+ games into the season like it was last year, I’d imagine Stearns & company will do something to address it. Last year the Braves were 52-55 on August 1st, dove head first into the dumpster for Jorge Soler (77 OPS+), Eddie Rosario (86 OPS+) and Joc Pederson (91 OPS+), then rode the wave of hot garbage all the way through October.
  8. sveumrules
    Defending World Series Champion Atlanta Braves have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their first 7 games & are currently getting shut out 9-0 tonight. Don’t blame the new guy!! Matt Olson has a 229 OPS+ so far & 2 of Atlanta’s 4 hits tonight.
  9. sveumrules
    Yelich has always hit a lot of ground balls, but he’s also consistently matched it with high BABIPs, .344 with the Brewers (10th in MLB since 2018) & .356 with the Marlins. Even in a down year last season he was at .321 BABIP. Christian showed up in Dan Szymborski’s 2022 Bust Candidates article this week which was interesting because it included his ZiPS percentile outcomes chart… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2022-bust-candidates-hitters/ Essentially ZiPS believes his 90% outcome is MVP Yelich (172 OPS+) & his 50% outcome is Marlins Yelich (126 OPS+). Something like last two years Yelich (100-110 OPS+) comes in around 20-30%. Which of the infinite possibilities will we actually experience over the next six months? I don’t know, but I’m curious to find out.
  10. sveumrules
    Well I guess a month is a bigger sample than "first three innings of the season" or "one game against Justin Steele" at least. I'll take progress wherever I can get it.
  11. sveumrules
    Most players don't even get 100 PAs in a month, not going to be able to tell much from a sample that small.
  12. sveumrules
    Narvaez is career 777 OPS vs RHP & 615 OPS vs LHP. Caratini is career 673 OPS vs RHP & 687 OPS vs LHP. Narvaez also knows the staff better & with most starters being RHP should get most of the playing time. How would you spilt up time at C?
  13. sveumrules
    The Cubs are projected somewhere between 7-17 wins better than the Orioles this year. BAL is projected for 60 (538 & BPro), 64 (ZiPS), 65 (ATC), 67 (FanGraphs) wins. CHC is projected for 74 (ATC & BPro), 75 (FanGraphs), 77 (538 & ZiPS) wins. The Orioles are projected last by all systems, like worse than the Pirates bad. But even with all that said, they will probably still win at least one of their next three games.
  14. sveumrules
    Orioles/Rays were the only sweep on Opening Weekend. Hopefully we can help Baltimore keep their losing streak alive & get them three games closer to that 0-21 start they had in 1988. Can only imagine what chatter was like on OrioleFan.net (er, OrioleFanatic.com) back then.
  15. sveumrules
    Some random runs scored/allowed tidbits from 2021… Last year the Brewers went 13-10 when they scored 4 runs. They went 9-9 when allowing 5 runs, with four of those wins being walk offs. They went 39-1 in the 40, F-O-R-T-Y, games that they allowed zero or one runs. They went 54-3 when scoring six or more runs.
  16. sveumrules
    Buster 2010-17 (4243 PAs) 136 OPS+ Buster 2018-19 (893 PAs) 95 OPS+ Buster 2021 (454 PAs) 140 OPS+ Votto 2007-18 (6764 PAs) 155 OPS+ Votto 2019-20 (831 PAs) 98 OPS+ Votto 2021 (533 PAs) 136 OPS+ Yelich is younger & has struggled for less time (722 PAs) than either of Buster or Votto did before bouncing back.
  17. sveumrules
    Bucks up ten on BOS at half (no Tatum though). TNT just mentioned the Celtics have been one of the best third quarter offenses this season & the Bucks Q3s are typically pretty uninspired so we’ll see how that goes. Gotta imagine most of the key guys sit tomorrow with the B2B, pull out the W tonight & they might sit them for the last game too depending how seeding looks.
  18. sveumrules
    PECOTA, ATC & 538 all have the Brewers with the 3rd best WS odds in the NL. If they are to be believed, there is a 92-94% chance that the offense is not championship calibre. All three systems also see the Dodgers as World Series favorites. If they are to be believed, there is an 81-82% chance the Dodgers offense won’t be championship calibre either.
  19. sveumrules
    The Pirates payroll is 38 million this year & they're in line for their fourth straight fifth place finish. I think Bob Nutting is making out much better than whatever fans the Pirates might still have left at this point.
  20. sveumrules
    If the Brewers scored 10 runs in the first three innings would you have come here to post, OMG WHOLE NEW OFFENSES!!1! Looking for confirmation bias after three innings of a 1,500 inning season might be jumping the gun a little. The Braves were 52-55 on August 1st & won the World Series last year.
  21. sveumrules
    Prolly just a tenure thing. Hendricks started the last two ODs for the Cubs.
  22. sveumrules
    162-0
  23. sveumrules
    Waking up knowing there is baseball that counts today just feels different. Opening Day really is the best (even if I can’t watch the game because of stupid Wrigley day game start time).
  24. sveumrules
    Baez put up a 294/346/638 line with a 28.8 K% in AA as a 20 year old legit SS. Howell put up a 235/318/429 line with a 39.6 K% in AA as a 22 year old close your eyes & pray SS. That’s a bankrupt on the run from his creditor’s Javy.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, I'd give the odds of Yelich returning to MVP caliber world beater at about 1-2%, the only people that run a 170 wRC+ for more than a couple seasons generally end up in Cooperstown. The odds of him returning to Marlins Yelich (122 wRC+), which is still a productive player, are much better, if still far from certain. Personally I'd say its about a 25-33% chance, 1 in 3 or 4. The projections are a little more optimistic pegging him between a 122-127 wRC+ this year as a median outcome.
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