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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Looking at the "peaks" and valleys of Yelich's game logs from last year his production pretty much splits up into four sections... 0401-0527 (70 PA) 246/386/316 0529-0703 (140 PA) 255/429/443 0704-0814 (89 PA) 188/270/250 0815-1002 (172 PA) 275/343/412 That last stretch of the season line isn't too far off of his career Miami line of 290/369/432.
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Cruz was very likely one of the other targets. Even at his age Nelson is probably a better hitter than Cutch, but he can’t run the bases or really play the field at all anymore. Also cost 6.5 million more so would have required stretching payroll farther (likely limiting in season flexibility) or cutting that money from elsewhere.
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TOR/BKN definitely seem like the tough potential 1st round match ups. Then again plenty were afeared of MIA last year & that was brooms. Ideally they’d stay at #3 and get CHI as #6 in the first round since the Bulls haven’t really beaten a good team all year.
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Yeah, obviously the hitters are going to get most of the headlines, but there are some low key intriguing arms on the staff too & I was excited to see how many of the standout complex performers got the Carolina call. Should be a real fun follow on the Link Report this summer.
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Erceg’s big spring got him slotted in at #12 on the FanGraphs Brewers list with his 40+ FV in the same range as other power arms like Abner & Antoine. Report… ”He's been sitting 96-99 all spring and has a wipeout low-90s slider, which he has feel for locaating in the zone, but not yet for locating off the plate to his glove side (though that shows flashes). The stuff to play a late-inning role is here, and it will just be about Erceg harnessing it with enough consistency to instill confidence for promotion. Recall that most huge success stories like this (Kenley Jansen, Carlos Marmol, Jason Motte, etc.) typically come together very quickly. Erceg's progression has occurred at an exciting pace and a late-inning outcome feels possible.”
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FanGraphs apparently likes what they’ve seen from Edwin Jimenez this spring, adding him at #28 on their Brewers list with a 35+ FV & this report… ”Jimenez currently sits 87-91 but his curveball has real shape and power, and he can create distinct action on his changeup. A relatively polished strike-thrower, Jimenez has a starter's repertoire and command foundation as well as a fairly projectable frame that allows for more strength and velocity at maturity. He projects as a developmental no. 4/5 starter.”
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Dog ate my homework, thanks for letting me turn it in late @reillymcshane 01 Aaron Ashby 02 Joey Wiemer 03 Ethan Small 04 Garrett Mitchell 05 Brice Turang 06 Sal Frelick 07 Jeferson Quero 08 Hedbert Perez 09 Jackson Chourio 10 Felix Valerio 11 Freddy Zamora 12 Eduardo Garcia 13 Hendry Mendez 14 Tyler Black 15 Abner Uribe 16 Antoine Kelly 17 Joe Gray Jr. 18 Zavier Warren 19 Korry Howell 20 Max Lazar 21 Mario Feliciano 22 Dylan File 23 Taylor Floyd 24 Russell Smith 25 James Meeker 26 Carlos Rodriguez (PITCHER) -
How many games would Severino start out of those 80 games? 20-25? How much value would he have put up in those games? I can’t imagine too many starting catchers (much less backups) average one win per 20-25 games. Last year the 31st best catcher (“best backup C”) put up 0.6 WAR behind the dish, the 90th best catcher (“worst 3rd C”) came in at -0.2 WAR, so a lil less than a full win spread over 162 games.
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Who would you have targeted & how would you have fit them in the Brewers budget?
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Giving away Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas was a major blunder. Trading Payton Henry for John Curtiss is likely an inconsequential footnote in baseball history.
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Closest prospect we have to Paredes is probably Turang. Both are MLB ready IF, back end Top 100 type prospects. Paredes a lil better with the bat, Turang a lil better with the glove. Given the Rays are set at SS for the foreseeable future, I'd imagine they value Paredes's profile over Turang's. So maybe something like Frelick/Mitchell and a Comp B pick to beat Detroit's offer.
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Makes perfect sense to me. Doctor doesn't know what's on MLB banned substance list, Severino trusts his doctor. I believe this is what Page/Plant referred to as a Communication Breakdown. It's always the same.
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After decades of planning trips to County Stadium or Miller Park trying to catch Teddy Higuera, or Ben Sheets, or CC Sabathia, or Zack Greinke, or any number of opposing pitchers' starts, I'm just going to revel in having the #2 SP & #1 RP projection entering the season... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/ What Stearns & company have done to flip the script on the franchise's pitching development in such a short time is pretty remarkable.
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How many catchers in baseball would you qualify as a sure thing? Narvaez might not be in that select group, but he’s 10th in WAR among all catchers over the last three seasons so he’s a safer bet than many.
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Yeah, I’d give it a B. Would have been nice to make a “bigger splash”, but it turns out having a bunch of awesome young players in Arby’s gets expensive fast & they got an Avi replacement while dumping JBJs contract & appear to be setting an OD payroll record, so kind of hard to complain unless you thought they were going to push payroll to like 150 million or something.
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Spring Training Games Thread - 2022
sveumrules replied to Joseph Zarr's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The team that won the World Series last year only scored 52 more runs than the Brewers during the regular season. They were also missing Ronald Acuna who accounted for 100 of those runs, 72 R + 52 RBI - 24 HR. A better offense gives you better odds, no doubt, but the Dodgers have won 61 more games than the next best team over the last 9 seasons, their position players have been 5% better (113 wRC+ vs 108 wRC+) than the next best team, HOU. The Dodgers have had better World Series odds than anybody over almost a decade & they only managed one WS in the pandemic weirdened season...because the postseason is overwhelmingly random. -
Spring Training Games Thread - 2022
sveumrules replied to Joseph Zarr's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
BPro has the Brewers projected 12th for runs scored, FG has them projected 16th. Offense once again looks like it will be a lot closer to average than it is to bad. Sure, I wish the offense projected to be 1st in runs scored, but that isn’t the reality we’re currently occupying. With the offense they do have, the Brewers are currently between 73-86% favorites to win the division & have the 3rd best WS odds in the NL. -
Yeah, Mattingly's peak was great, but that was essentially his whole career. He'll inevitably get in on some Veteran's Committee or another, but guys like Will Clark or John Olerud matched him on peak, exceeded him on career value & also had postseason success to boot, but yeah, neither played for the Yanks or had to cut their sideburns that one time, so... Mattingly 6YP: 147 OPS+ | 33.0 WAR (CAR: 127 OPS+ | 42.4 WAR) W Clark 6YP: 152 OPS+ | 32.0 WAR (CAR: 137 OPS+ | 56.5 WAR) Olerud 6YP: 136 OPS+ | 31.3 WAR (CAR: 129 OPS+ | 58.2 WAR)
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So dumb. Not sure if its still the case, but I saw an MLB blackout map from a few years ago & want to say Iowa had like six teams blacked out?
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Yeah, pretty impressive win, especially considering no Midds down the stretch after what I thought was a pretty questionable Flagrant 2 call.
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Great comeback to beat Philly in the 4th with Giannis blocking Embiid to seal the deal. Doesn’t get much better than that.
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Spring Training Games Thread - 2022
sveumrules replied to Joseph Zarr's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Haha, I totally got burned by the pitcher coming back in after getting taken out thing the other day. Had the game on in the background & Houser was pitching, looked up & was like “whoa, Abner Uribe on the mound, awesome”, then next time I noticed the game Houser was pitching again. Thought I dreamt up that whole Abner interlude or something. -
Yeah, projections struggle with defense in general because it is so much noisier than offense. I think that’s a big reason the Brewers have consistently outperformed the projections since Stearns & company got here as they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in MLB at +156 DRS (5th) & +49.9 FRM (3rd) since 2016.
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No doubt, whoever runs the projection system has to determine how much weight to assign each of the howsoever many variables are at play. But once that is done all biases inherent in the system are applied equally to all players regardless of team. Also, speaking of FG congrats to @Brock Beauchamp on the Twins hire of Kevin Goldstein. Will miss reading his stuff.
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These rankings are based on the projections, the only human element is splitting up the playing time. FG staff has actually been pretty optimistic on the Brewers recently, even though Clemens is a Cardinals fan. They had us 26-2 over the Braves last year in the DS (whoops) even though the FG computers were at a 53.5/46.5 split.
