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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I guess that depends on how many elite teams one believes are in the league at any given time. 538 (96 wins, tied 2nd), PECOTA (95 wins, 3rd) & FanGraphs (94 wins, 2nd) all have them projected as the 2nd or 3rd best team in MLB at the moment. They are currently 3rd in MLB by both run differential & BaseRuns. I'd say they are as elite as any non-Dodgers team, or maybe the Dodgers are the only truly elite team?
  2. sveumrules
    Reese Olson getting a mention in today's prospect notes over at FanGraphs... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-6-2-21/
  3. sveumrules
    How is that 100% clear? Narvaez & Garcia have both rebounded from 2020, just like regression to the mean predicted they would. Wong, Urias, Pina, Adames are all hitting at or above their career norms. Sure, he isn't hitting much this year, but on the whole Vogelbach still has a 109 OPS+ with the Brewers compared to a 95 for his career. Yelich is currently underperforming, but it's a sample of 81 games coming back from injury, hardly definitive of anything. The only guys massively underperforming are JBJ & Hiura, I guess you could throw Shaw in there as well, but he was a reclamation project on a minor league deal to begin with, so its not like expectations were sky high.
  4. sveumrules
    This is so true. It has been overshadowed a bit but make no mistake this is the major issue for the brewers moving forward. Two years removed from injury the guy is a shell. While it's been "two years" (or 21 months, whatever) since Yelich shattered his knee cap, he's only played 81 games in that time on account of a global pandemic & back flare up. Half a season is a small sample in & of itself, but once you add in the mitigating circumstances the sample becomes even noisier/less reliable. Christian's publicly available projections currently range from 133 to 147 wRC+, so it's a pretty good bet his end of season mark should end up higher than the 110 he is currently sporting.
  5. sveumrules
    For what it's worth, Taylor is starting today in CF, hitting 6th. Thanks. Taylor's been hot and JBJ hasn't, but JBJ has a much longer track record, so I just think it'll be interesting (and maybe somewhat telling) to see which way they go. Also have a lefty on the mound today, so wouldn't necessarily assume TT will be playing regularly just because he's in the lineup today. I would guess he will be CF vs LHP, play LF for Yelich when he needs his days & then like a game a week in RF to get Avi some regular rest. Hopefully he carries over the AAA hot streak & forces their hand a little bit.
  6. sveumrules
    Pretty sure you got May right at 13-15, here's hoping for a repeat!!
  7. sveumrules
    Yelich has a full no trade clause, Hosmer has a partial.
  8. sveumrules
    Lauer | 22 IP | 2.45 ERA | 167 ERA+ | 0.5 WAR Davies | 50 IP | 4.65 ERA | 82 ERA+ | 0.0 WAR Lauer has been more valuable than Davies so far in 2021.
  9. sveumrules
    The 27 games on the June schedule look a little easier than April & May did, will the Brewers be able to take advantage & stack up some wins? (1) vs Detroit (4) vs Arizona (3) @ Cincinnati (3) vs Pittsburgh (3) vs Cincinnati (4) @ Colorado (3) @ Arizona (3) vs Colorado (3) vs Chicago
  10. sveumrules
    That's one way to slice it up. Another way to slice it up would be to say they went 12-9 after a 1-6 start to the month. I think their end of season winning percentage will end up a lot closer to .571 (12-9) than it will to .348 (8-15).
  11. sveumrules
    Figured I'd do the same breakdown for May as I did for April... Wins (3-0): 8th 6-2 | 23rd 9-4 | 29th 6-2 Losses (0-5): 2nd 4-16 | 7th 1-6 | 15th 1-5 | 21st 4-9 | 25th 1-7 Either/Or (10-10): 1st 6-5 (11) | 3rd 3-4 | 4th 5-6 | 5th 4-5 | 6th 0-2 | 9th 2-1 (10) | 11th 1-6 (10) | 12th 4-1 | 13th 0-2 | 14th 3-6 | 16th 10-9 | 18th 0-2 | 19th 4-6 | 22nd 4-3 | 24th 5-3 | 26th 1-2 (10) | 27th 6-5 (10) | 29th 4-1 | 30th 3-0 | 31st 3-2 (10) That brings the season total to 10 wins, 10 losses and 19-15 in either/or games. Run differential is +52 in wins, -68 in losses & +4 in either/or.
  12. sveumrules
    He went 1 for 3 with a walk today. A .500 OBP is pretty good.
  13. sveumrules
    Detroit is kinda like a AAAA team so who knows, maybe Keston goes off for a day.
  14. sveumrules
    Looking at the schedule they play 6 of the next 7 days, then a day off, then 16 straight, then a day off, then 17 straight until the All Star break. That's 39 games in 42 days. As long as everyone is healthy & effective I wouldn't be surprised if they ride the 6 man rotation until the break & re-assess then.
  15. sveumrules
    Don't Rodgers & Love share representation? If Rodgers really is as smart as he wants everyone to think he is, there is no way he should have been surprised by the pick at all.
  16. sveumrules
    No doubt QTC is still knocking the rust off, but even before TJ he walked 86 in 185 IP from 2016-18, a 4.2 BB9, so he's always had some wildness in there. But yeah, if he can get his walk rate under control over the next couple months I could see him getting a shot at some point later this summer.
  17. sveumrules
    From what I understand the 2nd half projected results are determined using a 50/50 split of the Steamer/ZiPS projections, which are updated as the season goes along. As an example, here is how they are projecting rest of season playing time/results for Brewers hitters currently... https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&team=23&lg=all&players=0
  18. sveumrules
    Coming up on one third of the season played already & here's how the various projection systems think the NLC Division Odds stack up... PECOTA: 43.8% MIL | 37.8% CHI | 16.9% STL FanGraphs: 41.6% MIL | 28.6% STL | 25.0% CHI FiveThirtyEight: 34% MIL | 32% STL | 30% CHI
  19. sveumrules
    Must have been an inside the parker
  20. sveumrules
    By the end of the year it is normally pretty reliable. This early in the season there's still too much noise/not enough sample for it to be the best indicator of future results. Before he got hired by the Rays, Jeff Sullivan wrote an article at FanGraphs examining which of actual 1st half results, pythag (run differential) 1st half results or projected 2nd half results did the best job of predicting actual 2nd half results. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/ Even after 80 games (we're still only at 53) the projected 2nd half results still did a better job of predicting the actual 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual or pythag results.
  21. sveumrules
    QTC and Clayton Andrews, to be honest. Both looked good prior to 2020. QTC currently has a 13/10 K/BB in 9.2 IP. Andrews is a little better I guess at 11/5 K/BB in 9.1 IP, though he apparently has some shoulder issues at the moment? I'd love it if either could get some MLB outs at some point this year, but right now it looks like they'd really only be in line for mop up duty. Ashby/Small are probably better bets as internal options, though I'd imagine anyone they're hoping to pitch in high leverage spots will likely have to come from outside of the organization.
  22. sveumrules
    Yelich has a clause in his contract that he can't be traded.
  23. sveumrules
    The positional tab that you linked to gives a rough overview of players who have played that position, but also includes their numbers playing other positions. For instance, it includes all 134 of Schoop's PAs, even though he only played 70 innings at SS or all 540 of Sogard's PAs, even though he played just as much at 2B/3B. To get the totals just while playing SS you need to select "SS" from the splits menu which gives a slightly different WAR total, though the Brewers are still last... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2020&month=38&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=
  24. sveumrules
    Just a totally not random at all sampling of how some ex-Cardinals hitters have been doing post-STL... Luke Voit | 942 PAs | 139 OPS+ Carson Kelly | 619 PAs | 113 OPS+ Randy Arozarena | 289 PAs | 144 OPS+ Adolis Garcia | 185 PAs | 143 OPS+
  25. sveumrules
    19 of the 36 players drafted in the 1st round of the 2017 draft haven't even reached MLB yet. Of the 17 that have made MLB, Hiura is one of only 6 players with positive WAR. It's far too early to call anyone from a draft four years ago a bust.
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