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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Helton in 2000, Walker in 1999. Neither won MVP. -
So far Counsell has managed this game perfectly, imo.
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Any decision CC made at that point (our win probability when Davies got pinch hit for was about 62%) had a chance to be right or wrong, none of them carried anything close to a 100% guarantee of anything. The one he chose didn't work, oh well, that happens all the time. I don't believe someone needs to be called out every time a realistic baseball outcome comes to pass.
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I mean yes he is overreacting but the clear mistake was pulling Davies for anyone The last time Davies pitched more than 5 innings was July 18th. Just, following the script.
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He did the exact same thing he did all month, only it didn't work. Seems pretty straight forward. Black has been in high leverage situations with Claudio and Jackson all in the same inning this month while Pomeranz, Hader, Suter, Albers, etc. were not used? I sure don't remember that!!!!! Suter threw 40 pitches Tuesday. Pomeranz threw 11 pitches Sunday, 16 pitches Tuesday & 11 pitches yesterday. Hader threw 24 pitches Sunday, 16 pitches Tuesday & 15 pitches yesterday. That would be back to back for both & four times in six days when our win probability was around 57% up 2-1 heading into the 6th. Even if you want to throw Drew & Josh an inning each, somebody else still had to pitch the 6th & 7th. Albers hasn't pitched since the 21st, I'd guess he's not 100%.
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He did the exact same thing he did all month, only it didn't work. Seems pretty straight forward.
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On September 13th, the Cardinals beat us 10-0. We went 11-1 in our next twelve games after that blowout loss until tonight. Assuming we don't pull off the epic comeback & follow up this blowout loss with another 11-1 run, we'll be in the World Series.
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You know, Yeli might still win the MVP
sveumrules replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
By FanGraphs WAR, sure. Baseball-Reference, which uses DRS instead of UZR for it's defensive input, has it a little different... Bellinger 8.6 Yelich 7.2 Baseball Prospectus is more in line with Baseball Reference as well... Bellinger 7.7 Yelich 6.5 -
The Cardinals do hold the tie breaker, but all it gets them is home field advantage in the case of a tie for the Division.
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Since Arcia debuted in 2016 there are 32 shortstops with at least 1,500 PAs. Arcia is dead last at 0.1 WAR. 11th place is Jean Segura with 14 WAR, so there is a considerable difference between #11 & #32. Iglesias is 21st with 7.5 WAR, so still a notable upgrade (almost 2 WAR per year) over what Arica has provided. I'm also guessing Jose will only cost a couple two tree million bucks, so not much money.
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You know, Yeli might still win the MVP
sveumrules replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Bellinger = best player, best team. Yelich = hurt. This is the amount of thought I think most of the NL MVP voters will put into it. -
This FanGraphs article took a pretty in depth look at the Cards four game sweep of the Cubs... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-lay-waste-to-the-cubs-2019-season/ Key takeaway... If you think a team dropping more than 50 percentage points in four games calls the playoff odds into question, consider that the Cubs odds of getting swept were 3.4%. The Brewers odds of winning four straight games at the same time was 12.5%. The odds of both happening at the same time are 0.4%, around one in 240. That’s what it took for the Cubs to enter the series with 58% playoff odds and leave it under 3%.
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Hernan got 2.5 in 2019 for his 2nd trip through Arby, His first time through he got 1.975 million coming off an 81 OPS+, 1.0 bWAR season. Arcia is coming off a 62 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR season. I know those aren't necessarily the kind of number they go off of in Arby, but I think Arcia will be lucky to crack 2 million next year. But yeah, either way, you can likely have him & Iglesias for less than the theoretical cost of 1 WAR on the open market.
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Hernan got 2.5 in 2019 for his 2nd trip through Arby, His first time through he got 1.975 million coming off an 81 OPS+, 1.0 bWAR season. Arcia is coming off a 62 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR season. I know those aren't necessarily the kind of number they go off of in Arby, but I think Arcia will be lucky to crack 2 million next year. But yeah, either way, you can likely have him & Iglesias for less than the theoretical cost of 1 WAR on the open market.
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That's just the thing, though. You don't have to dump Arcia. Arcia at 1.0-1.5 million in Arby plus Iglesias at 3.0-3.5 million & you've just raised the floor for your SS production considerably while retaining the potential ceiling Orlando offers for a total investment around 4.0-5.0 million dollars.
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Arcia 2016 | -0.2 bWAR / -0.3 fWAR Arcia 2017 | 2.5 bWAR / 1.4 fWAR Arcia 2018 | 0.1 bWAR / -0.4 fWAR Arcia 2019 | -0.4bWAR / -0.5 fWAR Iglesias 2016 | 1.7 bWAR / 2.2 fWAR Iglesias 2017 | 1.4 bWAR / 1.7 fWAR Iglesias 2018 | 2.2 bWAR / 2.5 fWAR Iglesias 2019 | 1.3 bWAR / 1.2 fWAR Granted 2016 was only a partial season for Orlando, but even if you want to discount that, he is still at two replacement level or worse seasons to one okay one whereas Iglesias has consistently provided positive value ever year. Kind of hard to argue Arcia's normal year is anything other than replacement level at this point.
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SS is stacked, especially among contenders, so I don't see Iglesias getting some huge raise. Team SS WAR leaders with their (primary guy)... A's (Semien), Red Sox (Xander), Astros (Correa), Cubs (Baez), Rockies (Story), Twins (Polanco), Padres (Tatis), Dodgers (Seager), Cardinals (DeJong), White Sox (Anderson), Yankees (Didi/Gleyber), Indians (Lindor), Blue Jays (Bichette), Rays (Adames), Phillies (Segura), Dbacks (Ahmed), Angels (Andrelton), Nationals (Turner), Mets (Rosario), Braves (Dansby) He won't have a market this offseason for the same reason he didn't have a market last offseason. No one is paying him anything close to 2/16 or 3/21. At worst you might have to give him an extra million over the 2.5 he go this season or a second year if the Reds want him back.
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Brent Suter averages 16.4 seconds between pitches compared to an MLB average of 24.9 seconds. If every pitcher worked at Suter's pace, the season would have taken about 1,666 less hours so far.
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His 171 wRC+ with runners in scoring position is the 7th best mark in MLB. His +5.61 Win Probability Added is 4th in MLB behind only Yelich, Bellinger & Trout.
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2020 Arcia, who is much more likely to be 2018/19 Arcia again than the 2017 version, is going to cost around 1.0-1.5 million in Arby anyway, so might as well pay a little extra for the higher certainty that Iglesias should provide. My preference would also be to trade for someone outside of the organization, with Trevor Story being the dream, though I'd have no problem rolling the dice on Gordon or someone similar. I just think its a low probability outcome. Iglesias raises the floor of our SS position considerably for a minimal investment. If nothing else materializes in trade or FA, I'd have no problem going into 2020 with Jose/Orlando & they'll still probably cost less than 5 million combined.
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Arcia 2016-19 | 0.1 fWAR/2.0 bWAR | 67 wRC+/20.6 K% Iglesias 2016-19 | 7.7 fWAR/6.6 bWAR | 79 wRC+/11.7 K% Jose has produced much more consistently & should easily provide 1-2 wins over Orlando next year, plus he likely won't cost much more than the 2.5 million he is making this season.
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Many posters here saw so much wrong with this team (pitching, clutch hitting, can't hit lefties, etc) they thought there was no way we could go on a run to get back into the postseason picture...yet here we are. The organization has far more insight than what any number of fans believes they are seeing.
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I feel like when I was in middle school circa the early 90s that The Simpsons, In Living Color, Married With Children & one more, maybe Herman's Head?, were all on Fox Sunday nights.
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At risk of sounding like a huge NERD, that is one sweet graph.
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Last year Iglesias hit 269/310/389 (88 OPS+). He got 1 year, 2.5 million. This year Iglesias has hit 287/314/407 (85 OPS+). Given most of the contending teams being pretty set at SS, I'd guess 8-10 million would probably buy you a couple two tree years of Jose easy.
