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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Fixed.
  2. sveumrules
    You also have to look at who he would've replaced, Travis Shaw started 13 of those 21 games. No doubt. Shaw was worth -0.8 fWAR/-0.9 bWAR over the course of the year. Prorated to 13 games that's about -0.2 WAR, still not enough to get one theoretical win with Hiura's extra 0.5 WAR. Now if Hiura was up all season, performed at the same rate & Shaw hadn't played all year for some reason, that would have netted us about three theoretical wins, enough for the division.
  3. sveumrules
    But what if the contract isn't as bad as some fans believe it is, with the evidence being that Braun performed the same or better than over half of the players making as much or more money than him? Maybe, if that is the case, the fans have more to learn than the front office does.
  4. sveumrules
    Sure, batting average matters. But, OBP matters more & Grisham was league average in that category at age 22, which is fine, if not even maybe encouraging. Also, in regards to struggling to make contact... Grisham 2019 | 78.9% contact rate MLB Average 2019 | 76.5% contact rate If anything he maybe slipped back into being too passive... Grisham 2019 | 38.2% swing rate MLB Average 2019 | 47.1% swing rate
  5. sveumrules
    Which stat that accounts for batting, base running, defense, position, playing time & run scoring environment do you prefer to use as a starting point for player evaluation/comparison?
  6. sveumrules
    Looking at the 2019 weighted run values for individual events a single is worth .870 runs & a walk is worth .690 runs So .87 + .69 + .69 = 2.25 runs, which could be enough to raise it from 8.1 to 8.4. Say he was at 8.149 coming into the game, which rounds down to 8.1 WAR then add the 2.25 runs & it goes up to 8.374, which then rounds to 8.4.
  7. sveumrules
    Hiura was worth 2.1 WAR per both FanGraphs & BRef this year in 84 games. At that pace, over 21 missed games he would have put up about 0.5 WAR, so maybe but probably not.
  8. sveumrules
    There were 48 players this year that made 19 million dollars or more. Braun returned 1.9 fWAR/1.8 bWAR on that investment. Some players that made as much or more than Braun to perform similarly or worse include Wade Davis (-0.2 fWAR/-1.3 bWAR), Rich Hill (0.9 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Justin Upton (-0.2 fWAR/-0.9 bWAR), Kenley Janesn (1.2 fWAR/0.2 bWAR), Ryan Zimmerman (0.1 fWAR/-0.2 bWAR), Wei Yin Chen (-0.4 fWAR/-1.0 bWAR), Alex Gordon (1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR), Russell Martin (1.2 fWAR/0.7 bWAR), Yadier Molina (1.1 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Jason Heyward (2.0 fWAR/2.0 bWAR), Eric Hosmer (-0.5 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Rick Porcello (1.8 fWAR/1.2 bWAR), Johnny Cueto (0.0 fWAR/0.1 bWAR), Shin Soo Choo (1.8 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Buster Posey (1.9 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Robinson Cano (0.8 fWAR/0.3 bWAR), Jake Arrieta (1.1 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Jordan Zimmermann (1.3 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Joey Votto (0.7 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Giancarlo Stanton (0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Felix Hernandez (-0.1 fWAR/-0.6 bWAR), Albert Pujols (-0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Yoenis Cespedes (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Miguel Cabrera (-0.3 fWAR/0.0 bWAR). By my count that is over half the list that performed around Braun's level or worse for equal or more money.
  9. sveumrules
    Trade recap... Keon 2019 | -0.8 fWAR | -0.8 bWAR Wahl 2019 | hurt Hill 2019 | 121 IP | 3.92 ERA | 4.51 FIP | 1.98 K/BB Valerio 2019 | 306/376/389 | 11.8 K% | 9.6 BB%
  10. sveumrules
    Trade recap... Domingo 2019 | 0.0 fWAR | 0.4 bWAR Gamel 2019 | 1.0 fWAR | 0.6 bWAR Zavolas 2019 | 133 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.19 FIP | 4.43 K/BB
  11. sveumrules
    Friend of mine did while in LV before the season. Had written it off a month ago, so a nice backdoor win. It wasn't anything substantial, like $50. Still, better than nothing and helps pay for the next flight out. Nice. Their line seemed pretty on the nose. People that bet the under probably thought it was easy money until like the last two weeks of the season.
  12. sveumrules
    Anybody here get in on the Brewers season wins over/under this year? Pretty sure it was 86.5 when the lines first came out.
  13. sveumrules
    ZIPS has it as 57% Washington / 43% Milwaukee, BRef has it 61/39 & 538 has it 64/36, for whatever that is or isn't worth. The Nats proved over 162, by both wins & run differential, that they are the better team, they aren't missing their best player, they are playing at home, they should be favored. Last year we won the most games in the NL, there were plenty of doubters, but we still managed to get within a game of the World Series. This year we won the fewest games in the NL postseason field, there are still plenty of doubters, maybe even more, but baseball is weird, life is weird. A 36-43ish % chance is actually kinda good when compared to numerous other odds the team has already overcome throughout the season.
  14. sveumrules
    The Brewers 2019 pitching staff ended up as one of the average-est units of all time, posting a 99 ERA-, a 100 FIP- & a 100 xFIP-.
  15. sveumrules
    I believe a prominent ancient civilization & a major motion picture starring Woody Harrelson among others, predicted the World would End in 2012. Which is interesting because... The Nationals return to relevance started in 2012. Since then they have won the 2nd most games in MLB, this is their fifth postseason in that span. In their previous four trips, they have never advanced beyond the NLDS. Beating them in the Wild Card will keep that streak alive. The Dodgers are the only team to win more games than the Nationals since 2012, they've made each of the last seven postseasons, they've spent in the neighborhood of 1.5 billion in payroll & have zero rings to show for it. Beating them in the DS will keep that streak alive & be some kind of poetic revenge for last year. The Cardinals have won the 4th most games in MLB since 2012 & have been an eternal pain in the posterior, but, keeping with the theme, they too (three?) have not won the World Series since the Mayans or whoever ran out of room on the stone tablet. Beating them in the CS will keep that streak alive & be even more poetic revenge for 2011 & pretty much our entire tenure in the NL. Rounding out the top four in wins since 2012 is the Evilest Empire of them all, the Yankees. Much like the Dodgers, they have also spent in the neighborhood of 1.5 billion in payroll with nary a ring to validate said expenditure. Who better to keep that streak of expensive ineptitude alive than the plucky, upstart 2019 Milwaukee Brewers?
  16. sveumrules
    Kind of what I was thinking of well. San Diego also has one of thee most tepid fanbases outside of the Florida teams, so it would be much more akin to TB in an expectations/media sense compared to Chicago. Plus the whole laid back SoCal thing seems to line up with Maddon's vibe. To say nothing of the weather or fish tacos.
  17. sveumrules
    Markakis has had some serious longevity for being "just a guy". Hes had 2 seasons over a 3.0 war in his entire career. He's super replaceable but he keeps plugging along.... Yeah, Markakis definitely has a case for the average-est player of all, or at least recent, time. Qualified for the batting title in 12 of his 14 seasons, still racked up ~470 PAs in each of the seasons he didn't. 29 fWAR in 14 seasons, almost exactly 2 per year. 109 career wRC+ which is right around average for a RF. In 18,000+ innings in the OF he is +1 DRS, -7.5 UZR. Again, about as close to average as one can get.
  18. sveumrules
    Looks like we won't win the Central, but WC2 is a pretty nice consolation prize. Especially considering the Cubs, Phillies & Mets spent over a half billion combined & still couldn't beat us out.
  19. sveumrules
    I predict if the Brewers get 27 outs they will win the WC game. If they get 26 or less they will lose.
  20. sveumrules
    For whatever it is or isn't worth, NL home teams are 2-5 in the two Wild Card era.
  21. sveumrules
    Just looked it up & my guess, Markakis, is number two.
  22. sveumrules
    Highest I would go on Yaz is prolly 3/50. Yes, there is certain risk for a catcher over 30 with a lot of innings (5,574 since 2014, 3rd most in MLB) caught, but there's also a huge drop off offensively from Grandal to anyone we could realistically replace him with. I don't think Moustakas has much more of a market this winter than he did either of the two previous, I'd imagine 2/20 would get it done.
  23. sveumrules
    Freddy Lynn!
  24. sveumrules
    Black > good?
  25. sveumrules
    Neither, his contract expired. Creative differences. Heard Maddon has been working on a solo record though.
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