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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    They were a team that got to play teams that lost 89 or more games in 53% of their games and they went 40 over .500 against them. It's not mental, they just aren't a particularly good team when they have to play other teams that actually have talent. Yup. I'd argue the Twins & Brewers had similar true talent levels entering the season. Minnesota got to play the easiest schedule in baseball & had a lot of things break in their favor this year so they won 101 games fairly easily. Meanwhile we had a much more evenly balanced schedule & had a plethora of things break badly so we had to fight to get 89 wins. Pretty much baseball in a nuthsell.
  2. sveumrules
    The laugh track in that clip is so over the top ridiculous.
  3. sveumrules
    It worked.
  4. sveumrules
    I agree. As long as certain colleges can pay their players more than less regarded colleges it will never be fair.
  5. sveumrules
    Yes, the reliever with the second highest Win Probability Added in MLB over the last three seasons is crucial to winning.
  6. sveumrules
    Rivera first three seasons of relief... 196 IP | 47 ERA- | 57 FIP- Hader first three seasons... 204 IP | 57 ERA- | 63 FIP- Pretty darn close.
  7. sveumrules
    What is Knebel’s third pitch? You say you have no patience for inconsistency, over the last three seasons Hader has been the best relief pitcher in MLB that isn’t going to be pitching in the Venezuelan Penal League next year. Knebel was historically great in 2017, was sent down to AAA due to ineffectiveness in 2018 & hurt in 2019. How is that more consistent than Hader who has posted ERA- marks of 47, 60 & 59 to go along with FIP- marks 70, 54 & 69 in his three MLB seasons?
  8. sveumrules
    StatCast agrees with you. 2018 expected AVG .158 vs actual AVG .132 expected SLG .280 vs actual SLG .265 2019 expected AVG .152 vs actual AVG .155 expected SLG .306 vs actual SLG .366
  9. sveumrules
    Even with less than optimal command & no consistent second pitch, since 2017, Hader has posted 5.9 FIP based WAR (2nd most), 7.2 runs allowed based WAR (thee most) & +7.26 Win Probability Added (also 2nd). The only reliever that has been comparable over the last three seasons is Felipe Vasquez & I believe he'll be pitching in the Venezuelan Penal League next year. If I have to live or die with a reliever, Josh Hader is my pick. As for relievers that had multiple productive seasons over numerous years while pretty much only throwing a fastball, Aroldis Chapman & Zach Britton are the two that come to mind first.
  10. sveumrules
    Actually no. There weren't teams with a better record with us, there was A single team. The Cleveland Indians, who went 30-8 against the Royals & Tigers. If we got to play 38 games against two 100+ loss teams, we might have won a few more games too. Whatever dude. Your the semantic guy. I was just helping you out But I will concede the point (despite not mentioning that some of these teams also play against 100 odd win teams while our division had the worst division champion) since you actually graduated to using context with data That makes it infinitely more fun and useful to debate. Wins by division (team totals) 1-5 diffetence... ALE: 404 (103, 96, 84, 67, 54) 49 ALC: 372 (101, 93, 72, 59, 47) 54 ALW: 422 (107, 98, 77, 72, 68) 39 NLE: 414 (97, 93, 86, 81, 57) 40 NLC: 408 (91, 89, 84, 75, 69) 22 NLW: 409 (106, 85, 77, 71, 70) 36 Top to bottom, the AL Central was clearly the most lopsided division in baseball this year, while the NL Central was clearly the most evenly matched. It's almost like the NLC being the most balanced & having the division winner with the fewest wins vs the AL having three 100+ win/100+ loss teams are somehow related. Please feel free to add additional context, since I'm still catching on.
  11. sveumrules
    I'm not rejoicing, by any means. At the same time, there are varying levels of success. We were more successful than 20 teams, including quite a few who spent way more money only to fail at being more successful than us. We were less successful than 9 teams. Over the last three years we've won the 8th most games in MLB, more than the A's or the Rays or even the Cardinals. Considering where the organization was at when Stearns took over, its kinda hard for me to be upset with being only the 2nd best small market team besides Cleveland in such a short amount of time. We've only just begun...we'll start out walking & we'll learn to run...etc...etc
  12. sveumrules
    Actually no. There weren't teams with a better record with us, there was A single team. The Cleveland Indians, who went 30-8 against the Royals & Tigers. If we got to play 38 games against two 100+ loss teams, we might have won a few more games too.
  13. sveumrules
    By game 160, 20 teams' entire seasons were ALREADY absolute failures. I guess if you want to say we were ONLY the 10th best team this year, I can get behind that.
  14. sveumrules
    Outer space is a vacuum, our atmosphere protects us from that (for a little while longer anyway, maybe). On planet Earth, as the NL was constituted in the year 2019, it's hard to consider this season anything but a success, with the Cubs, Phillies & Mets spending a half billion combined (to say nothing of the other NL clubs with postseason aspirations) just to fall short of where we ended up. Everyone might have wanted to build on last year, but that would have necessitated going to the World Series (thee only way I'm aware of to building on losing in game 7 of the NLCS) & that was always a long shot considering the Dodgers juggernaut.
  15. sveumrules
    This is worse than last year for me, too, we didn't make it game 7 of the NLCS. Still, I consider the season a success on the whole since the Cubs, Phillies & Mets spent over a half billion dollars to not even lose the Wild Card game.
  16. sveumrules
    There were 61 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title this year. One of them gave up fewer than 15 home runs.
  17. sveumrules
    As not OK as Hader might be (poor command, no second pitch) he was still 3rd in FIP based WAR, 7th in runs allowed based WAR & 10th in Win Probability Added this season among relievers. I'll take a bullpen of eight guys that not OK, please.
  18. sveumrules
    Thanks for the free out from Scherzer, glad Davey Martinez is managing this like a regular season game.
  19. sveumrules
    Disagree. Thee only certain way to victory will be for the Brewers to allow fewer runs scored than the Nationals.
  20. sveumrules
    This literally means nothing. 7th in batting average, 4th in batting average with men on base, 7th in batting average with RISP... ...yet, 21st in runs scored. This seems to run contrary to the idea that we find out how much batting averages matter every time a few guys get on base. The Pirates wRC+ of 92 (20th in MLB) correlated much better with their runs scored than did their batting average.
  21. sveumrules
    No, it can be changed before every series. Which is why I don't know why everyone is freaking out about Shaw. He's only on the roster for today. When they win, his spot will go to a pitcher and he won't be active again unless someone gets hurt. I know why everyone is freaking out about Shaw, because most people who talk about sports on the internet freak out about all sorts of things that are hardly freak out worthy.
  22. sveumrules
    I think you are maybe misunderestimating BF.net. If this were NatsFan.net right now we'd be losing our minds about how dumb Martinez is for starting Scherzer since he has been far from his dominant self of late, & fretting over how Strasburg & Corbin will do out of the bullpen since it is not the role they are accustomed to. Not to mention the shadow of getting beat in the NLDS in 2012, 2014, 2016 & 2017 looming over everything.
  23. sveumrules
    The Nationals are the favorite because they won more games during the 162 game regular season, that does not mean they are built better for a one game playoff. Pitchers likely to throw tonight & their ERA-/FIP- since August 1st... Scherzer 106/83 Strasburg 76/87 Corbin 73/92 Hudson 32/78 Woodruff 0/10 Suter 11/54 Pomeranz 54/60 Lyles 57/102 Hader 77/82 The Nationals have a definite advantage, but I believe it is overstated because people are more familiar with the names of their pitchers.
  24. sveumrules
    How are the Nationals any more built for this game than we are? We have been bullpenning to great success both this September & last September & last postseason, it is nothing new to our team, just another game. The Nats bullpen is so horrendous they are probably going to throw two starters in unfamiliar roles to try & compensate, pretty out of the ordinary for them. Not to mention their "ace", hasn't been very ace-y of late.
  25. sveumrules
    Right, WAR doesn't match up 100% with actual wins, thus "about" & "theoretical" & "maybe" & "probably not". Also, basic undertanding of the concept is helpful. WAR operates off the assumption that every team wins around 46 to 47 games, that is literally the replacement level of the equation. Thus, WAR thinks the Astros should have won around 111-112 games, us around 78 to 79, the Marlins around 56-57, etc.
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