sveumrules

Rea went unclaimed at $5.5M. No team was interested in picking him up off waivers at that salary so we can reasonably infer no team viewed him as an attractive trade piece.

He was drafted at #34, but his $2.1M bonus was almost 700K under slot so more in line with the value for picks #44/45. Bryce Meccage signed for $2.5M at pick #57. They were likely offering Chris Levonas similar or more at #67. I think the main thing working against Burke is just the depth of the system, Braylon Payne only debuted at #18 on the first voting post-draft before jumping to #11 with an electric small sample showing in AZ. Ernesto Martinez put up a 195 wRC+ over 201 PAs from July onward at Biloxi and couldn’t crack the Top 20.

Figured this was the most relevant place to drop this excerpt from an interview with Brenton Del Chiaro from today’s Sunday Notes at FanGraphs... “Fans of the Milwaukee Brewers will be especially interested in an interview that is slated to run here at FanGraphs tomorrow. In the latest installment of my Talks Hitting series, Brenton Del Chiaro will not only discuss hitting-development philosophies, he will address several of the organization’s top position player prospects. Recently promoted to assistant director of player development, Del Chiaro has served as Milwaukee’s minor league hitting coordinator for the past three seasons. As a teaser to tomorrow’s piece, I set aside what Del Chiaro had to say about highly-regarded catching prospect Jeferson Quero, who had season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder this past April. As fate would have it, Quero was injured in the first game of the 2024 campaign. “We missed that bat this year, I’ll tell you that much,” Del Chiaro told me. “It was an unfortunate injury. This is one of the players in our org that has the ability to put the barrel on the baseball. And he’s a true competitor. Bear-sized hands; they’re enormous. The bat is in the zone for a long time; there is a lot of depth through the zone. His ability to square up a baseball is what sets him apart from other catchers, or from other players in general. We’re hoping that there is a speedy recovery and we get that bat back on track.” According to the assistant director, hitting development differs somewhat for players at Quero’s position. Due to the multitude of defensive responsibilities, only so much time can be devoted to honing what happens in the batter’s box. “Managing the workload is probably priority number one,” said Del Chiaro. “When you get a premier batsman like Jeferson, who plays a premium position, the tweaks are going to be smaller. It’s going to be dosed a lot smaller than it’s going to be for an outfielder or a first baseman. A catcher’s workload is something you have to account for. If you can’t manage that workload, you’re going to bury that player.”

Painter is at #8 (FanGraphs), #12 (BA), #27 (BPro) and #32 (MLB) on the Top 100 lists. If the Phillies decided to deal him they’d get way better offers than Williams, Boeve and Koenig.

The 50th guy on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents was Spencer Turnbull with a one year, seven million prediction. They then listed 18 honorable mentions, none of them were Moncada. The 50th guy on FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agents was Kyle Gibson with a one year, nine million prediction. They ran a second article with nine guys who just missed the list, none of them were Moncada. These resources aren't infallible by any means, but they generally have pretty good bearings on the market. Maybe some team will roll the dice and give him a guaranteed deal, but given all the uncertainty around his health and with his last impactful season being all the way back in 2021 now I personally wouldn't give him anything more than a minor league deal with an invite to camp.

Not sure where you're pulling your numbers from, but I was looking at FanGraphs who have him pegged for 2.4 WAR over 528 PAs in 2023 and another 0.9 WAR last year in only 153 PAs after missing the first four plus months on account of injury.

My best guess is Burke starts out back in Wisco. Timeline could be anywhere from he goes bonkers across multiple levels and positions himself for a 2026/27 call up to he goes a year per level and won’t be in the convo until around 2028/29. I’d have him 3rd behind Tyler Black and Ernesto Martinez on the organizational 1B rankings, but he’s also behind Mike Boeve, Brock Wilken, Luke Adams and Eric Bitonti at the moment who are all ostensibly 3B but could end up as options at the soft corner in the long run.

I dunno, the first player that popped to mind as a comp for me was somebody that signed with a small market… Edman (2578 PAs) 263/317/408 (99 wRC+) 59 HR | 112 SB / 17 CS 6.3 BB% | 16.6 K% +24.0 BSR | +49.1 DEF LoCain 2013-17 (2672 PAs) 291/345/423 (108 wRC+) 49 HR | 110 SB / 24 CS 6.8 BB% | 18.3 K% +20.7 BSR | +55.1 DEF Pretty close across the board. Lorenzo was a better hitter entering FA but Edman is two years younger, can play SS/2B in addition to CF, and still didn’t beat the 5/80 Cain got all the way back in 2018.

Of the four guys you mentioned only Black has ever made a Top 100 list coming in between #46 and #70 depending on the source, and he has backtracked since those rankings. Of the four guys traded for Yelich Monte Harrison (#49 to #71) and Isan Diaz (#59 to #93) were in the same general range as Black plus there was also Lewis Brinson who was made eight different Too 100 lists between #12 and #18 before being dealt. Those packages aren’t really similar at all.

Edman is a “utility man”, sure, but his 16.0 WAR since debuting in 2019 is 47th in MLB over that stretch. Even discounting 2019 with the juiced ball he’s still at 3.3 WAR/600 PAs for the rest of his career. If he can maintain that pace over the next five years, heck even if he just notches 10 WAR. he’ll still be a steal for the Dodgers even before the deferrals push down his CBT hit.

Edman already had a $9.5M salary on the books for 2025, so $64.5M in new money over the additional four years (before all the accounting tricks).

The Bears last winning season was in 2018.. They’ve finished 3rd or 4th in five of the six years since with one Wildcard in an 8-8 year as their “high” point. The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018 with four Division wins (and zero losing full seasons) in there. The Bears are way more like the Pirates than the Brewers of late.

Teel sounds like more of a bat first lefty option who has struggled to control the running game a bit at AA/AAA with 100 SB / 25 CS (20.0 CS%) over 690 innings. Quero would be a perfect complement as the defensively tooled up - 51 SB / 27 CS (34.6 CS%) in 622 innings at AA - righty hitting option.

Steamer projects Casas for 124 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR next year which is a Top Ten projection at 1B for them. That’s right in line with the projections for guys like Alonso (125 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) and Walker (119 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) who are about to bank in free agency except Casas is only 25 and will be making significantly less money over the next four years under team control. Before graduating he had appeared on eleven different BA/MLB/BPro Top 100 lists peaking as high as two Top Twenty placements at #19 and #16. I wouldn’t personally do Henderson and Black for him because his defense at 1B is so bad he should probably be a DH only already, but if the Red Sox do put him on the market I’d guess they land a better haul than that anyway. Given the Red Sox catching situation, Connor Wong had a nice 110 wRC+ but a not so nice -14 DRS | -10 FRV | -11.5 FRM, my guess is any productive talks would have to start with Quero.

Yelich and Contreras are already going to eat into a large portion of the DH at bats. Last year they combined for 60 games in the DH spot, and with Yelich coming off injury that number is likely to be quite a bit higher in 2025, especially if the idea is to give Contreras more games there as well so he doesn't wear down. If we estimate 65 games for Yelich at DH and another 35 for Contreras, that leaves 224 games to be split between Hoskins and whoever else at 1B/DH. I would guess Goldy is going to want to go somewhere with a clearer path to regular playing time.

Blake Snell's first year in MLB was 2016. With 1,096 career IP he is one of only 41 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 innings since then. Now of course you got 2020 in there gumming up the works somewhat when it comes to comparing against past workloads, but let's just give it to these modern day pitchers as kind of an extra credit as it were. So if we look at the eight full seasons prior to 2016 (2008-15), there were 71 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 IP. Move it back to the eight full seasons prior to that (2000-07) and there were 83 hurlers who clocked at least 1,000 IP. At this rate I'd probably put the over under on "pitchers to throw at least 1,000 IP from 2025-32" somewhere around two dozen.

Problem was that they played at the Celtics on an a B2B, at Memphis (6th in netRTG), and two super tight games against the scorching Cavs which was more or less four automatic losses in their first seven games and bloodthirsty haters took the opportunity to pounce. Throw in another at New York on a B2B plus a second Celtics game and six of the Bucks nine losses on the season to this point are perfectly reasonable. Sure, there were two ugly losses in there against the Bulls and Nets in the 2nd and 3rd games of the season too, but since they subbed AJax into the starting lineup and the schedule has evened out a bit they've been a completely different team by both the numbers and eye test.

Yeah, it was only 35 IP but Duplantier shoved to the tune of a 3.15 FIP | 3.57 ERA during his Dodgers stint to end the season, mostly in the PCL. Oliva opened his career with 1,215 PAs of 120 wRC+ between A-AA from 2017-19, but got derailed at the pandemic and followed with 923 PAs of an underwhelming 91 wRC+ in AAA from 2021-23, before bouncing back to the tune of a 138 wRC+ with 37 SB / 3 CS over 248 PAs back down in AA last year. Maybe it was just a small sample of man amongst boy type stuff, but I’d imagine the Brewers saw something(s) they liked on the scouting side too.

Yeah, Rengifo is absolutely brutal afield... 2B (2,460 inn.) -9 DRS | -12 FRV 3B (850 inn.) +1 DRS | -8 FRV SS (625 inn.) -5 DRS | -9 FRV Would imagine that disqualifies him for consideration in the Brewers run prevention scheme.

One reason might just be to do right by the player. Instead of adding him to the 40 Man and then dealing him to whichever team offered the best marginal return, Carlos and his agent can decide for themselves which landing spot gives him the best chance at an MLB future.

Three more turnovers and only ten points allowed for the mediocre D today.

Last time we saw Khris he put up 24.7 PPG | 9.2 RPG | 4.7 APG on 48% shooting in the playoffs while playing eleven minutes per game over his season average. He's always had an old man's game that wasn't overly reliant on athleticism so I'm fine with them slow rolling him back in hopes it increases his chances of being healthy and ready to go come playoff time.

Some team level stats from their recent turnaround... First Ten Games (2 W - 8 L) 110.6 oRTG (19th) 115.7 dRTG (22nd) -5.1 netRTG (22nd) Last Seven Games (6 W - 1 L) 115.4 oRTG (9th) 108.1 dRTG (8th) +7.3 netRTG (6th)

Giannis has looked much more confident from the midrange in the early going this year. Obviously small sample but he is shooting 53.8% from 10 to 16 feet versus a 36.7% career average at that distance. From 16 feet out to the three point line he is at 49.1% so far compared to 36.8% for his career at that range. Has also upped his attempts big time here from 7.2% of his FGAs last year to 16.0% so far this year.

Crazy idea definitely. Profar played zero innings at 2B last year, one inning in 2023, zero in 2022, 59 in 2021 and 138 in 2020. The last time he got regular playing time at 2B waz in 2019 when he put up -20 DRS | -5 FRV over 1,024 innings. He’s been brutal in LF the last two years too at -19 DRS | -18 FRV.