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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    Apologies for the semi-obscure reference, but I sometimes imagine that the Brewers annually cause the people who run the projection systems to mimic Professor Duncan’s meltdown about Abed on the first season of “Community.”
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    Whoever mentioned earlier in the series that the Brewers would be fine as long as they got to the Nationals’ bullpen fast, well there is the normal being right and then whatever this is.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    I guess my issue with this critique is that it ignores the fact that improving at the deadline was always going to be more difficult for the Brewers than for other contenders, not because of organizational philosophy or budget issues but because of simple logistics. One of the reasons for the Brewers’ success is that they don’t have a ton of weak spots (or at least won’t once their outfield is healthy). They could use one more reliever, which they got, but didn’t need to remake their bullpen. They didn’t need another starter. If you think Vaughn’s chase and walk rate improvements are sustainable, he could easily provide Naylor-type production even if he cools off from his absurd early pace. Between Vaughn’s start and Durbin’s rise, you are getting decent or better production from 8 spots, Shortstop has obviously been an issue. However no shortstops were dealt, and the only one definitely available (IKF) has probably been worse than Ortiz the past couple of months. That left the bench, and they did improve there. I might have preferred that they pick up one more bat, but overall the Brewers were never likely to upgrade as much as the Padres, Mets or Phillies did because the avenues to do so were simply greater for those teams.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    All he has to do is keep that BABIP above .500. Maybe he’ll adjust more quickly to being out of Coors than expected and other improvements will balance out the inevitable BABIP fall, but I am skeptical given the K-rate and contact profile are still bad even during his hot start for the Yankees.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    Also, a little dose of perspective on the impact that traded hitters have had in recent seasons. Tonight, Andrew Vaughn likely hit the 1.0 fWAR mark since coming over to the Brewers. I believe only two players who were traded during the 2024 season bested that for their new teams: Luis Arraez (1.1 fWAR, who was traded pretty early in the season, and Jazz Chisholm, who was obviously exceptional for the Yankees. Randy Arozarena at least came close. Of the 2023 group, the two best were Josh Rojas and Jake Burger at 1.1 fWAR, with Mark Canha in third at 0.9. I believe you had as many or more guys who got released or waived putting up 1+ WAR for their new teams than those who got traded.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    It is obviously really unlikely to happen now, but I found something that listed every time up to 2011 that every starter in a lineup got two hits. The Brewers hadn’t done it up to that point, but the White Sox did manage the feat against the Brewers quartet of Ricky Bones, Mike Potts, Kevin Wickander and Marshall Boze in 1996.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    C- The Padres deal is odd even if they think Cortes is cooked (at least for this year). I like the other deals they made. The lack of a shortstop was unfortunate but understandable. The best chance of getting one evaporated when the Marlins started winning and saw they could be a contender next year. I hope that Siegler’s expected stats become his actual ones down the stretch. That would be a huge boost for the bench. It will be interesting to see which set of his current stats (real vs expected) is closer to his actual talent.
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    I wonder if the apparent velo drop in Cortes’ rehab starts explains some of that deal. Everyone saw Quintana as the throw-in, but if the Brewers were going to DFA Cortes anyway, maybe it was Lockridge for Quintana with Cortes as the throw-in.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    On one hand, shipping Quintana in that deal feels like overkill. On the other, I wonder if the Brewers didn’t think Cortes was a plus starter anymore (or at least anymore this year). Even with their starter depth, this isn’t a deal you do if you still think he is a solid mid-rotation starter.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    Unless they see something that isn’t apparent, this is kind of baffling
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    If they don’t trade one of the veteran starters, they probably plan to fill that last bullpen spot internally, so I am not worried there. I did think they would upgrade more than one of the bench spots, though.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    Especially since I think Finnegan got dealt for the guy who played Ed’s best friend.
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    I don’t know how much is other people on that staff, but he is still I think generally regarded as a good talent evaluator. He might just have to suck it up and work as GM under a stronger POBO.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    Part of the issue is that value at the trade deadline is driven largely by desperation. The relievers dealt represented less of an upgrade for Milwaukee, so they were worth less to them value wise. If the Brewers believe they can get 2022-23 Vaughn simply by getting him out off that depressing morass of a franchise, then Naylor and O’Hearn represent only marginal improvements. If the Brewers aren’t moving Turang to short, the position where they have the most desperation happens to be the one with the worst crop of obvious trade targets.
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    Maybe it would be different if the TV deals were set up differently, but outside of the Cowboys, who basically print money but don’t really act like it lately, I don’t know if the Packers would be at that big of a disadvantage these days. One estimate I saw had them 10th in revenue.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    Seriously? You don’t think he was one of the 38 best rule 5 eligible guys in the system (or even 28 if you leave spots for 10 minor league free agents or open spots to make minor league rule 5 picks)? I mean he wasn’t a real threat to get taken in the major league phase, but thinking he might not have been protected in the minor league phase is hyperbole in the other direction.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    I am going to miss rooting for Areinamo in the Brewers system, but it felt like with him not getting promoted thus far that he was a likely trade candidate.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    Makes sense if they wanted to give Contreras more rest down the stretch.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    Was hoping for 6 of the 11-20 prep/JUCO guys, so mildly disappointed. Also, is it certain none of the younger UDFA got enough to eat into the bonus pool? Maybe unlikely, but it has happened.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    I don’t think anyone is “settling for mediocrity.” Most of the arguments come down to, do the deal if it makes sense. Increasing your World Series percentage 3% this year at the expense of decreasing it 4% 2027-2031 is bad math. Second, your narrow definition of “going for it” occasionally feels like a situation where you are trying to be proven right by defining the term in such a way that even if the Brewers “go for it” an average number of times, you’re still going to be proven right 95% of the time. It also ignores the reality that sometimes three small deals can be cumulatively more beneficial than one big one.
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    1. The Brewers aren’t the only small market team in contention. 2. That might work in the offseason, but now at the deadline it’s apparent even most of the big market teams have significant flaws.
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    It involved giving up significant prospect capital to fill an immediate need, so yes. I guess you could argue that the years of control gave a second dimension to the deal, but I also don’t agree that doing the type of deal that happens once or twice per deadline is the only way a team can qualify as going for it, because by that definition most contending teams don’t go for it every year.
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    I was 100% one of the ones criticizing the Priester trade. I also am not sure why that negates the argument, though. Front offices should be judged in hindsight, at least for the things they can control. I would rather the Brewers made trades that worked than trades that made me thrilled upon reading the news. I remember a lot of criticism when they “settled” for Santana and Canha while the Cubs got the real prize in Candelario. turns out they got more production for less prospect cost.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    Depending on what rankings you use it feels more like Yoho and one of Meccage, Knoth, Wichrowski, Crow or Hardin. Letson seems a tier above Izzi.
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    I’ll guess the Yankees outbid everyone for Suarez. The Brewers end up with Naylor or O’Hearn. Possibly a slumping IKF for cheap if they want SS depth.
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