jay87shot

What about this. 1) Burnes to Balt. for 1B Ryan Mountcastle, 2B Connor Norby, and OF Billy Cook If I'm the O's my future IF is Mayo, Westburg, Holiday, and Henderson. For us we get 2 young solid power hitters for the right side of our IF. Mountcastle is a proven bat who help lengthen out our lineup immediately. Norby would be a great 2B option and Cook gives us AAA OF depth incase the injury bug hits again. 2) Payamps to Tex for Jack Leiter We sell high on Payamps, Leiter gets a change of scenery and we get a top of the rotation talent for a throw in piece last year. 3) Bryce Wilson to NYM for Blade Tidwell Same thing as Payamps, we sell high to a team who is desperate for quality bullpen arms. 4) Adames to Giants for Mason Black and Will Bednar In this scenerio we get IF pieces for Burnes so we turn Willy into 2 interesting arms. Free Agents= Miley 1/10 and Luis Severino 1/8 incentives to 16, Woody 2 year deal 1)LF Frelick 2)C Contreras 3)DH Yeli 4)1B Mountcastle 5) CF Mitchell 6) 2B Norby 7) 3B Black 8)SS Turang 9)RF Weimer/Taylor Obviously this is really young but it has great upside. Add in Chourio at some point and even better. Rotation) Peralta, Miley, Severino, Ashby, Houser, Gasser Missing a true ace but if we resign Woody and some young guys blossom there are tons of top of the rotation options. Pen) Williams, Uribe, Megill, Milner, Peguero, 2 of Vieira, Small, Andrews, couple vet minor league deals. The depth takes a hit but the upside is still there and I trust Arnold to find a gem somewhere. Add in high end arms in AA/AAA in Rodriguez, Misi, Leiter, Tidwell, and Black and that gives us plenty of arms for 2025 or to package to get a SS or ace in a trade at the deadline. If things aren't great we could still trade some vets and have a super strong young team for 2025.

Don't forget Hader's trade value went down a ton because his ERA was like 5 at the time we traded him. Williams has a value just about the same as Hader before Hader imploded in July 22'. We also got Taylor Rogers who was a quality closer before his own problems, he would gave been worth a quality 3rd prospect instead. Williams has a 24 value on the trade simulator (which I hate) which is the same as Misi straight up or a package of Black, Lara, and Aeienamo. Also with a lack of great bullpen options I would guess there is even more demand for a high end closer making him closer to a 30 value in my opinion. Also 1 trade simulator thing that upset me. Abner Uribe is listed at a 4 value, Luis Medina (who we cut in Sept., I believe) has a 5.7 value.

In any deal I'd prefer for quality over quantity. Instead of 1 solid prospect and 2 or 3 lower prospects we should maybe just look for 2 higher end players. To LA for Gavin Stone and Miguel Vargas NYY for Clark Schmidt and Chase Hampton (maybe a small 3rd piece) Burnes and Peguro for Coby Mayo, Conner Norby, and P Alex Pham Burnes and Braves for Vaughn Grissom and Waldrep Dbacks for Yu-Min Lu, Ivan Melendez, and AJ Vukovich (ok this is quantity over quality) Boston for Ceddanne Rafaela and Blaze Jordan Detriot for Jace Jung and Ty Madden (Detriot was sneaky not terrible and should have lots of money to spend, Burnes would be a sneaky great move for them if they could sign long term) Twins for Bailey Ober and Jose Miranda (maybe 3 piece) Mets for Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott (quantity again but the Mets don't have a high end pitcher) Giants for Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, and Aeverson Artega Cards for Goldschmidt, Tekoah Roby (still love Goldy trade idea) Rays for Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda, and Manny Margot (trade Margot elsewhere in 3 team deal) Burnes and Peguero to Rangers for Ezekiel Duran and Owen White (maybe 3rd piece) Jay's for Alex Manoeh, Addison Barger, and Spencer Horwitz To say there are lots of options is an understatement. I didn't run any through the trade machine but all should be halfway reasonable.

Love this idea, maybe not to start 2024.

I don't think I'd call it a rebuild but I am more ready than ever to do a re-tool. I am still in the trade Burnes side of things but now the return needs to be a mlb ready pitcher over IF. This also makes trading Devin more likely as well because he will likely get the most back after Burnes. In the process of trading those we may as well trade Willy. In doing that we save like 50 million so we could also take on a contract by trade or through free agency. If don't right we don't need to give up on next year but our team will like more like the Reds of last year with young upside pitching and bats all over the place.

I think it really is looking at long term pitching with Burnes, Woody, and Houser FA's after next year and Miley, Rea, and Teheran in FA this year the 2025 rotation after Peralta is really a question mark. Something like Peralta, Ashby, Misi, Rodriguez, Gasser could be amazing but also has lots possible hurdles to jump. I am sure we will get a solid starter one way or another this offseason and hopefully turn a reliever into a bat or upside prospect. With how good we have been at finding and fixing broken relievers I would probably even trade 2 relievers if the value in trades is there. I really like Vieira and still have hope for Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews, not to mention I think Tobias Myers would be a great candidate to have a huge boost in value changing from the rotation to bullpen. Not to mention adding another player or two in the mold of Bryse Wilson, Trevor Megill, and Hoby Milner

I like Turnbull, MadBum, Minor, Ross, and Duffy best out of that group but agree all of them could be interesting last chance type pitchers. If Woody ends up injured for a good portion of the year would it make sense to do a contract like Tyler Glasnow last year 2 years like 25 million, 5 for 2024 and 20 for 2025 (maybe an opt out for both sides somehow). Unless he is out all year it would be hard to non-tender him, but we wouldn't also want to pay him a full year salary for 10-15 starts and then lose him to free agency. If Woody is out for a while I would look at signing Luis Severino to a 1 year deal, he would be a pitcher with great stuff who could be had relatively cheaply (say 1/8 with incentives to 15) with some incentives and make a huge difference. Obviously he wasn't good last year but getting out of NY and getting with our pitching staff could get him back to that 1/2 style starter. He still throws upper 90's with 4 quality pitches and could even shift to the bullpen later in the year if he struggles a bit.

I could see a path where all of these guys could be top 100 prospects at this point next year, undoubtedly the best 11-15 prospects in my life time.

Would Jake Cronenworth be of interest to anyone? I feel like he is miscast at 1B and would make a solid long term 2B. The Pads could be a team to eat some of the long term (maybe just a couple million). He was a back to back 4 war player.

Garver would be mostly a DH and catch occasionally when Contreras needs a day. In all likelihood someone else will pay Hoskins more, my guess is he gets something like Conforto got last year 2/32 with an opt out. The more I look at it we probably don't add a free agent power bat. In all likihood it would be a trade. As you reference we don't spend on free agents and anyone decent will likely get paid well this offseason.

Black everyday at 3B or 1B would ok with me. I kind of like him in utility role next year best. My favorite scenerio is we get Coby Mayo (or a different young 3B) in a Burnes deal and keep Canha to play 1st. Black starts the 1st couple weeks in AAA to preserve control time. Then he plays 30-40 games at 1st, 30-40 games at 3rd, 30-40 DH, and a few in each the OF and 2B if needed. In this scenerio we trade Weimer and Chourio is full time LF and yeli DH. Black or Mayo end up being full time 3B/1B in 2025 (or Wilken if one falters).

I know this is a sore subject but where are we on Trevor Bauer. A video he put out with evidence made it seem the woman was out to get him. If we trade Burnes, Bauer could be an interesting 1 or 2 year high upside starter, maybe like 1/8 with incentives and some option structures. On top of it Milwaukee would be a low key place for him to step back in, assuming that his incident(s) weren't as bad as they were made out to be. Again this is only if he is exonerated on some level. On top of that Bauer is still a turd sandwich but could be an interesting fix into keeping up the rotation and trading Burnes or at least fixing half measures.

I like those ideas, I think we might have to give up a bit more for Grissom. Also I'd switch Jack Leiter for Brock Porter. I think Williams should get 2 top 100 prospect type players. I kind of like the idea of Williams to Atlanta for Grissom and on of their top pitching prospects. Williams has been the top reliever in the league over the past 4 years and there would be a ton of buyers. We should get way more than we got for Hader at least. Burnes to the Dodgers still makes the most sense in my mind, they have pitching prospects and a few nice young bats. They will have a need for an ace and Burnes would be perfect for them if they don't get Ohtani.

I would be looking for a high end college SS/2B. I know we have a bunch of high upside guys there but they are all in the lower minors. Otherwise I wouldn't be against college 1B, upside HS OF, or always pitching. I can't say I have read enough or looked at scouting videos to name anybody yet.

I like Larnach, however looking the Twins, they are loaded in the IF Correa, Lewis, Kiriloff, Julien, Polanco, Miranda, Brooks Lee (AAA) and have questions in the OF Buxton (doesn't play much OF anymore), Wallner, Larnach, Castro (UTL), Gordon. I think that one of our OF for a IF would be win win. Tyrone Taylor for Polanco Weimer/Mitchell for Miranda and a prospect Frelick for Julien (don't like a ton) Quero for Brooks Lee

I struggle with what Council would want to do. On one hand a $300 million payroll and being the highest paid coach in the league is tough to turn down, however his kids are in HS (or just graduated) and Milwaukee is home. I really like the idea of Vogt if CC leaves. however the jump from bullpen coach to head coach might be a bit steep.

I like the idea of Wallner, if he could play some 1st he would be great. My guess is that the Twins would hold on to him, but I could see a trade based with a reilever like Joel Payamps working out. The problem is that he would like just be a DH for us with the OF depth we have.

I don't mind Hoskins but his injury makes a deal a bit tough, if it was 1/15 with some team options I could be on board but my guess is he will get like 3/45-50 guarenteed with player opt outs. JD Martinez would be ideal but my guess is the Dodgers will pay up to keep him 1 more year. My favorite under the radar option would be Mitch Garver, he could backup Contreras at C, play 1st occasionally, be a great DH. He had 19 HR's in under 300 ab's so the power is real, injuries are always a concern for him. My guess is he wouldn't cost over $10. Eloy Jimenez would be an obvious trade candidate and it seems like Alonso is off the market but maybe the Mets going from Eppler to Stearns changes that. There are probably a couple older players like Jose Abreu, Conforto, Haniger, etc that could be had but I can't see that working. If I were in charge I would just look for a power infield bat coming back in a trade for Burnes or a reliever and then next year having Wilken, Chourio, and maybe Weimer/Mitchell if they can make contact on top of a IF with power in a Burnes deal.

I don't think I will ever get past Jesse Winker pinch hitting in both games. When Woody went down I had made peace that a run was going to be unlikely. Winker hitting twice in high leverage situations feels like someone gave up on this team and it is going to take some doing to get me to trust Counsil again.

A couple people have brought up that they don't think that a Burnes trade return won't be as high as we are expecting, it could be but we should make out well. A half year of Giolito (and Lopez) got a 50-75 ranked prospect and a 5-10 ranked org. prospect, Burnes is head and shoulder above Giolito and would have a full year. There are going to be a ton of quality arms on the market but just about every decent team could use an arm or three. Worst case I would wait until the deadline when the supply and demand is better. One thing I know is that our management does a good job of squeezing out value in trade returns.

I think a lot of this is going to depend on Woody's shoulder, if it is the worst possible news and he is out for the year I probably would approach the offseason differently. I would be more inclined to keep Burnes and be more creative in adding a bat. Trade = 1)Burnes for a mlb ready starter or IF and a couple prospects 2) 1 reliever depending on return I would sell high on Payamps, Wilson, or Williams (maybe even 2 if we got some interesting arms back), I would try and get the overall best prospect here regardless of age 3) get 1 mlb high end bat, I doubt we can sign anyone that would be a good middle of the order bat but we need a guaranteed consistent run producer in the lineup, to a degree Quero is blocked and we will have 5-6 quality OF, so trading from that depth is logical to me. Sign= 1) Miley or cheaper quality vet arm 2)1 of Canha/Santana, I am a little torn over Canha's option 1/9.5 or Santana 1/5, Santana is a better 1B, has more power, and would be cheaper, or Canha has a little more versitility and is a more consitent hitter. 3)Backup catcher, Caratini would be ideal but my guys is he gets like 2/10 somewhere and that is to expensive for our backup, I don't mind bringing in a couple vets on minor league deals and having them compete with Henry, Naveretto, and maybe Quero. 4)Under the radar minor league deal big arms, management has been killing it finding guys like Wilson, Megill, Milner even some guys that were in our org that just were depth pieces are killing it like Topa and others. Non-tender=Lauer, Rowdy I wouldn't mind either on a non-guaranteed minor league deal that has incentives but Rowdy needs to get in shape and Lauer needs a lot of help. Free Agents= Don't take the throw 5 darts at the board approach, the past couple years we have signed like 4-5 guys to 1/2-5 million dollar deals and they haven't worked out. I would much rather get 1 guy for 10-20 million even if there is still some risk.

Jackson Chourio I am leaning more and more each day towards wanting him to be on the opening day roster next year.Jacob Misiorowski Close between him and Quero, I chose him because his floor should be super high as a big time reliever at the worst.Jeferson Quero Quero being blocked by Contreras is going to be an interesting discussion going foward.Tyler Black Another guy who could/should start in the bigs. I kind of like him as a super utility playing 1B/2B/3B/OF/DH basically everyday somewhere else.Brock Wilken I am buying in on the bat, maybe a late in next year call up. Should be a top 100 prospect in my booksCarlos F Rodriguez Splitting hairs on Gasser/Rodriguez, I'll give CRod the nod just based on being a bit younger. Another nationally under ranked guy who should probably be a top 100 prospect.Robert Gasser #3 of should probably be on the opening day roster as the #5/6 starter. 338 k's in the past 2 years is impressive. Borderline top 100 prospect.Luis Lara If he can add some power he can easily jump into the top 100 (50) in the mlb next year. Cooper Pratt Beyond excited to see him get a fully year in next year, I could see him as high as #6 on this list depending on how much you buy into rookie ball and pre-draft rankingsJosh Knoth I was hoping that the club would at least give him a few innings in professional ball but I can wait until next year.Eric Brown Jr I think if we could just erase the 1st half of the season he might be a top 100 prospect, him being 11 shows how amazing our farm system is even with Frelick and Uribe graduating in the past week(s).Luke Adams Reminds me of a 3rd base Joey Weimer, hopfully he can refine a few things in his swing but another guy who could explode next year.Eric Bitonti I worry about him being Jake Gatewood (if you remember him) but the upside is huge here as well.Mike Boeve Get him in the weight room, other wise the bat should make him a solid utility player at least.Yophery Rodriguez Here hoping to starting in A ball and following a Chourio/Lara path next yearLogan Henderson I would have liked for him to get a couple starts in Appleton this year but he had a wonderful year, with the plus changeup he should find continual success.Dylan O'Rae Amazing year, if he can develop even doubles power he could be an amazing prospect come this time next year.Daniel Guilarte I'm probably sleeping on him a bit, another great year from an 18/19 year old prospect.Bradley Blalock I am not sure what to make of him, I will give him this spot based on his numbers in the Sox's system early in the year.Wes Clarke Likely won't be ranked high anywhere on the web. However he has kind of turned into a favorite of mine. A powerful 1B who can catch. I like the idea of Quero/Contreras spliting C and DH and then having Clarke as a bench player who can essentially be a quality 3rd catcher and maximize the 2 catchers PT. I love how most of our top prospect don't strikeout much, this organization has done a spectacular job. There are 4-6 other player who could easily be top 20 prospects on that list and another half a dozen who have really big upside after that.

However put Winker on the roster and pinch hit him in the 8th needs to be fired fast. Guys work hard for 162 and we are giving away outs in the 8th of 1 run playoff game. Despicable

Solid roster, I can't think of anyone obvious that I would put in before these guys. I like all 3 relievers getting more time. Brown and Mendez seemed pretty obvious AFL players to me. Clarke is interesting, I've written before that when Quero gets to the bigs Clarke seems like a perfect player to allow Contreras to DH more and have a player like Clarke who can be a 3rd catcher and be useful as a 1B/DH and PH, maybe he could even learn a bit of LF eventually not sure about other positions, other that 1st/C. Maybe he is there to add another position like 3B/2B/OF.

Nice, I like O'Rae overall as a prospect but won't disagree with Baez hitting .370.