Let's say the Brewers just have an absolutely dreadful end to the season going 10-21 to finish 85-77. The Cubs would need to finish 18-10 to pass the Brewers.
If the Brewers just manage to play 15-16 over the final 31 games they would finish 90-72 which would require the Cubs to go 23-5 to pass the Brewers.
Even in the midst of this Cubs hot streak they are still 5 games back of the final WC spot having actually lost a game of ground on the Braves over the last 10 games.
Honestly I'd just say year. Just not the year we were all hoping Black would have. While his AAA numbers are pretty good, the underlying numbers have been pretty ugly.
85.6 Avg EV
31.3% Hard hit rate
6.7% Barrel rate
Those are just not ideal numbers for a bat first prospect in AAA.
Is it really a weak Braves team when they would be starting the NL Cy Young, the NL ERA leader, and Max Fried in the series? Not to mention by the playoffs, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies could both be back which could leave this as a potential lineup.
1. Soler - RF
2. Albies - 2B
3. Ozuna - DH
4. Olson - 1B
5. Riley - 3B
6. Harris - CF
7. Murphy/d'Arnaud - C
8. Kelenic - LF
9. Arcia - SS
Honestly I just want the 2 seed really bad. None of the WC teams look like fun.
Padres might be the best team in the NL on paper.
Diamondbacks are extremely well rounded and getting healthier by the day.
Braves have some very good front end SP and a lineup that can hit HR for fun when they are hot.
Really I just don’t want another 2 game playoff run. Please at least get us to a best of 5.
Oh man my apologies Mr. Fantasy Expert. If your expectations were for Cruz to be a Top 10 fantasy shortstop then my goodness it absolutely was just on you for totally unrealistic expectations.
I'm asking what were you expecting? He's striking out and walking around the same level as his career. Similar power output as the rest of his career. Stealing more bases than ever before. Seems like you're blaming a player for your bad fantasy GM'ing. Adames is a way better SS than Cruz, so not at all surprising that he'd be higher ranked.
Also if we want to get very technical, before you even mentioned fantasy you said he's been awful offensively this year which +12.1 above average offense according to fangraphs would like to push back on.
Honestly the only surprising thing here is Montas looking really good since he got to Milwaukee.
Wiemer's hot month was filled with ridiculous batted ball luck and an unsustainable BB:K rate. Although 14 wRC+ is crazy low.
Junis seemed like a ticking timebomb with how many breaking balls he hung every outing.
Just an FYI on how Ashby has looked out of the bullpen lately.
Aaron Ashby since 8/10
6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 SO
.085 xBA
.089 xSLG
.105 xwOBA
74 Average EV
0% hard hit rate
0% barrel rate
61% K-rate
4% BB-rate
48% whiff rate