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wiguy94

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Everything posted by wiguy94

  1. wiguy94
    They were the last holdout on Tyler Black being a Top 100 prospect I believe. Fangraphs, BA, BP, and now Pipeline all have soured greatly on him. Pipeline said it was due to a lack of defensive home and that his batted ball data was very poor in AAA
  2. wiguy94
    I specifically became a Brighton fan because they give me Brewers/moneyball vibes. Think my hopes for this year after a big spending summer was making Conference League and a QF run in one of the Cups. You basically know you have no chance of winning the league or even making Champions League but it's still a lot of fun. I read somewhere that for the MLB to match NBA's 80% higher seed win rate in the playoffs you would need to play a Best of 75 series. Putting baseball down to 3 game series is just inviting randomness. We had a team 111 wRC+ vs the Mets and the Mets had a 64 wRC+ but they beat us 2-1 and outscored us by 4 runs. If you ran a simulation with one team having a 111 wRC+ and the other a 64 wRC+ in a 3 game series, the team with a 111 wRC+ would win far more often than not, but in a singular 3 game series anything can happen. Mets hit over .400 with RISP during the series while the Brewers hit .160. Basically the series came down to the Mets having extremely good sequencing and the Brewers having extremely poor sequencing.
  3. wiguy94
    I think Hall ends up in the rotation as well with Rea shifting into more of a swingman role. I can't imagine the expectation for Hall and Woodruff would be 30 starts and 150+ IP considering Hall has never thrown 100 innings in a season and Woodruff is coming off shoulder surgery.
  4. wiguy94
    Yes it isn't close to being as good as a rotation headed by Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta. Going into 2022 the rotation was Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser. Going into 2023 the rotation was Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Miley, Houser. Going into 2024 the rotation currently looks like Peralta, Myers, Woodruff (post shoulder surgery), Hall, Civale. I don't know how anyone could possibly say that rotation headed into 2024 is better than 2022 and 2023.
  5. wiguy94
    Please show what short term SS/3B the Brewers can sign that can hit 30 HR
  6. wiguy94
    That pitching staff isn't even close to as good as 2022 and 2023.
  7. wiguy94
    Being a starting pitcher in a playoff game isn't for every rookie.
  8. wiguy94
    Game 1 - Koenig opens for Civale Game 2 - Freddy Game 3 - Montas Game 4 - Myers Game 5 - Freddy
  9. wiguy94
    Or that playoff baseball is incredibly random and in 3 game samples anyone can beat anyone even if that success isn't remotely sustainable.
  10. wiguy94
    Their linsanity run needs to end eventually. They had a 64 wRC+ in the series against us and a 77 wRC+ today and they are going to win again. Just getting insane cluster luck right now.
  11. wiguy94
    I mean we traded for Jake Bauers last year. Also traded for Oliver Dunn who ran a 27.5% K-rate in AA.
  12. wiguy94
    Yeah I'm not able to watch, but I have gameday up on my laptop just following the game.
  13. wiguy94
    I mostly saw 92-94 when he was a starter this year.
  14. wiguy94
    Zach Wheeler is averaging 98mph with his FB through 3 innings which is up almost 3mph over his season average.
  15. wiguy94
    Just seems like he will be an odd man out. Rea can do exactly what Wilson does but do it at a better level.
  16. wiguy94
    Here's MLBTR's 2025 Arb estimates for the Brewers Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM (Brewers hold $10.5MM club option/$250K buyout) Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM Nick Mears (3.022): $900K Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM Will be back - Civale, Payamps, Haase, Contreras, Mears, Megill Questionable - Milner, Bauers, Wilson (could see these guys being tendered and traded, non-tendered, or tendered) Traded - Williams
  17. wiguy94
    Haase is under team control for 3 more seasons. I imagine he's almost a complete lock to be the Brewers backup catcher next year.
  18. wiguy94
    I think you're giving Shane Smith a few extra ticks. Strictly as a reliever in AAA he averaged 94.3 mph on his FB and topped out at 96.0
  19. wiguy94
    Nope. The Brewers are trading Devin because of the lack of team control. They aren't going to trade him for someone who will be a FA the same time Devin is. Just not the Brewers MO.
  20. wiguy94
    I mean that counts last night. Going into last night he had a 3.86 ERA and 3.82 FIP when pitching on 0 days rest but even then it's a mostly pointless sample
  21. wiguy94
    If you go to the trade boards you can search a players name as a workaround to see their value at least as recent as the last mock trade proposal they were involved in. They have Freddy at $34M surplus value as of 9/28 which by my math seems fair. Figuring $8M per 1 WAR and Freddy having 2 years of control for $16M that would put his total value at about $50M or about 6 WAR. He's put up 5.3 fWAR and 6.4 RA9-WAR the last 2 seasons.
  22. wiguy94
    Yeah of course the Brewers wouldn't make that trade, but that's what Baltimore would be asking for if you sought out Westburg. Westburg has 48M surplus value per BTV which is probably underselling him a bit. You'd need a hell of a lot more to get him than 1 year of a great closer, an average RP with team control, a positionless prospect who has fallen off every Top 100 list due a down season, and a 5'6ish noodle bat CF prospect.
  23. wiguy94
    I probably wouldn't even do Devin for Urias straight up. Urias has really fallen off defensively the last two seasons and is more an average to above average bat and a 2B than a 3B and good bat. If we are trading Devin, give me prospects that we can have 6+ years of control of over 2 years of a 30 year old Ramon Urias.
  24. wiguy94
    They stream some AFL games so we could see him and I believe one of the AFL parks they play at has statcast data so even without physically seeing him we could potentially get a good picture of where he's at post TJ.
  25. wiguy94
    Yupp. I edited my comment after you replied but you'd probably need Devin, Misiorowski, Pratt, and maybe another sweetener to get Westburg. Westburg without getting injured this year probably puts up a 4 fWAR season playing in a park that depresses his offensive value. He has 5 more years of team control. You'd need to give up a haul to get him.
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