BrewerFan

This year has definitely made it much more difficult to guage his open market value, but I think his on field value is worth substantially more than 8M. Last two years, 4.2 and 4.4 WAR. This year he's down to 1.5, but his last month his BABIP has bounced back and his line is a respectable(though hardly elite) .262.343.385 .727 OPS. With his elite defense...I still don't know where he comes out. Dansby Swanson was the comp and now he's fallen off this year. So I'm happy to let him play it out on the QO.

I think there are a whole lot of teams that'll happily take Houser back without demanding we match his salary. I'd think a team like LAD or TB would believe they could work with him and turn him around or use him in a different fashion. We're not getting a good reliever AND a hitter back unless they're guys in LowA and players we scouted and pick from and then they eventually become those things, but I tinnk Houser and even Lauer will have SOME value. With him, it's particularly important on how he comes back, what the velo looks like and how he finishes the year. This is why I think the "one more run, Rhys Hoskins" crowd will be disappointed. I think we'll shop around the players on the margins, the Rowdy, Lauer, Houser, Canha, Chaffin, those are guys who are clearly not back. Wade Miley is a guy I wonder if they MIGHT consider bringing back. He's been outstanding...when healthy, but how much does ~100IP of a ~3.00 ERA go for? And he's was one year removed from a 5.3 WAR. That's the only contract I could see them opting to bring back and even then I thnk it's more likely they try and get a paycut. Maybe 6M and another 10M option. He's already get 1M in the buyout(though perhaps they could tie that in. And then on the other hand I see Gasser, Rodriguez, Uribe, Milner, Peguero, McGill(hopefully), Payamps, Williams to back up Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby. Man, really have NO clue what they'll do next year.

Based on Adames production thus far, you're probably looking at lower level prospects with nice upside. I do NOT think that's the case with Burnes especially, but Woofruff either. For an arm like Burnes I think you're looking at a Luis Castillo return...or if nothing else, a Scherzer/Verlander return. Scherzer netted the Mets a top 50 prospect and Verlander a former 1st round pick who was absolutely crushing the ball in AAA. Burnes is a Cy Young winner and the type of pitcher that can help push a team like...the Phillies(that's the team I keep going back to) over the top and they've got a number of young arms). Or the Rangers if they come up short. Woodruff isn't going to have the same value, but I still expect at least a top 100 prospect and then a couple HiA type talented arms. But if you're not getting at LEAST an Acun type prospect back for Burnes, it really doesn't make sense to trade him or Burnes. Adames, again, totally different group. He might be worth trying to extend at a reasonable rate(I trust the underlying metrics and his defense). And his value has completely collapsed. I'd think most like 4/70 with a 5th year option at 25M. IF he doesn't take it, run it back with him, hope he bounce back and you offer the QO. Getting the QO for all three would hurt in the short run, but you' d then go into another draft with a very large bonus pool and would have 5 picks...assuming all declined and they'd be in the top 40 or so. The Brewers will be picking after the 1st round in the '25 draft, you'd had 3 more. The picks are worth ~2.5M. That's nearly the size of our signing bonus THIS YEAR to go out and acquire talent. That would be like Knoth, Soto, White and Sykora just from the QU and the existing comp pick we'd have coming. This was a better draft, but if you look at it like that, it's a little easier pill to swallow. 4 prep arms, so high risk, but I'd take my chances on developing a couple of them. LAD and SD seem to take prep arms year after year and they seem to do pretty well with them. I'm still willing to deal Williams with Burnes to maximize the return and I don't believe we're going to run it back with these guys and then add a player for 15-20M next year...and given like 2 of the top 15 prospects are pitchers, I'd assume they're going to get overpaid. I'd assume we just see what we're offered this year for the 2(or 3) and if it's not enough, play out the season, see if there's a team that's on pitcher away and how we're looking, if CC back. There will be so many variables that go into it, but I still think this FO is going to balk at the idea of letting Burnes walk for nothingg.

Exciting in particular to see Prado. I saw reports he was throwing in the 91-93 MPH range as a 15 year old and touching 95. He's 17 now, that was the one snippet I've found on him, but he's got projectable Right Arm, he looks/sounds like he can become a legitimate pitching prospect. Love seeing a line like that. 4IP 1H 0BB, 5K. Rivera did him one better and was throwing 92-94 when he agreed to sign(so again, before 16) but it was his secondary stuff...at the time of signing that had the Brewers excited, and he had an outstanding outing. Listed at 6'3(which appears to be a big generous). But a really good change, and an exciting curve. Nothing on Aneuris Rodriguez beyond he was a young, projectable arm and he also threw 4 SH innings with a K per IP. So pretty fun night from the DSL!

I mean...if you're talking about getting ~1.4M for it, I'd honestly rather the tavern association or whatever...deciding which Taverns get a patch for each game, paying and then having Kelly's Pub for one game or whatever it may be...then I suppose it be worth it. But I'm taking the 5M from Harley if they're willing to. It's not about every last dollar, but it's not like the OF walls at a MiLB stadium, it's a patch. I'm cool with that. That basically pays for the Latin American signing class each year. It IS a business. If we were just going for nostalgia or whatever, it'd still be Miller Park. But I understand your position.

This is a good point...which is why I think there's a CHANCE their plan is to keep him through this year and then bring him back for the 1.1M since he's not due to be a MiLB Free Agent yet(which if you've been following this board, @Mass Haashas outlined, if you haven't, someone can go into detail). But basically, if they bring him up now, they're likely going to give him sporadic ABs. If they leave him down and hand him the starting DH job next year, he could start all year and just be "the guy," and play everyday. Not much has shown me they're willing to give him an everyday opportunity, but I'm hopeful. The other option is to just make him our DH. And I've been all for that, but it's almost Sept now, so again, very short leash, that leads to pressing and limited opportunities and isn't conducive for success. I fully expect another .280/.340/.480 25HR type season out of him if not multiple in his career. But I'm afraid that'll likely be elsewhere.

The topic was CLEARLY about Arcia, but Hiura's mother was dealing with cancer in 2021. That's 60 games out of his entire career. I'd point out his game crashed after his mothers treatment for cancer.

Well...I'm fine with them as they wear little patches on their uniforms all the time. If Harley were to do it, I doubt anyone would care. Or Miller. Do we even know if anyone is interested though? I don't really know enough about where the Brewers are and who may have approached them to have enough of an opinion. I'm surprised anyone does...beyond just being against the idea altogether, but getting upset because we haven't done it seems silly.

Arcia was with 2.4 WAR over parts of 6 seasons with the Brewers. He was a bad player for the Braves for 2 years and now 6 years after his last decent season(2.2 WAR) he's putting up decent numbers for the Braves. If THAT is what we're risking...are we really risking all that much? I've advocated for bringing Hiura up, but that is a ridiculous take. just waiting forever, no matter how bad a player is. You don't think Urias(who put up more WAR in the last 2 seasons than Hiura's entire career) or Adames(who nearly matched Hiura in one year) was worth letting Arcia go? If we're going back and claiming letting Arcia go now constitutes this great mistake...where is that gonna stop? Any player who comes through with a big hit? Arcia was given one opportunity after another after another. He wasn't a good player with us. He had a 72 OPS+ for his CAREER. Tellez has a 82 OPS+ this year.

I've NEVER seen the Brewers in the 12-15 range. Attanasio got a new TV deal fairly quickly after buying the team and they got a boost in revenue(not sure it was due to Attanasio as I don't think he has that big of an impact). It's about how much they can sell the commercials for. Large markets, more eyeballs, more revenue. Smallest market and...I'd be really curious to see when they were in the top 12 in TV money or TV deal. As for the patch, I think 7 of 30 had one coming into this year. And it'd be nice, but the Pads...with all the excitement around that team got 10M. The Brewers are likely looking at 3-4M a year if they find the right sponsor. I would genuinely be curious to see any source that suggests the Brewers TV deal was in the top 12-15 at any time in the last ~35 years.

If he'd have just said the gap between Counsell was larger between him and other NL managers before the implemented the 3 batter minimum, added the DH and then limited the number of pitchers...I'd agree. I still think he's the best manager in the NL, but he did take advantage of those rules better than most. Remember the 1 hitter Wade Miley faced before Woodruff came in and pitched into the 6th(with Burnes taking over). Got the Dodgers to put all their right handed hitters in the lineup. Then Miley started the next night and was still lights out. Same series the Dodgers(who there were also whispers about them cheating that year) hit two huge HRs off Jeffress splitter, one of the most dominant pitches in the league that year). Game2 Brewers up 3-1 in the 7th. Bring in Jeffress-Walks in a run, then gets a DP ball. 8th inning, gives up a 2R HR on the splitter, blows the lead. Game 7-Gives up a 3R HR in the 6th Inning on a splitter to Puig in the 6th inning. All beside the point. He has to work around the margins to help the Brewers win and does it better than any other manager IMO.

I know he hit a bomb to win it, but Cam Devanney is still...just plugging along...going into the hole, firing missiles to 1st, hitting for power, getting on base. A RHed hitting 3B/SS...seems like a guy who could have considerable value moving forward.

No question. A guy like that, it's all about just control. Not even command. You don't need to be painting the black, just hitting area's of the zone. Up with the FB and with that hammer curve, just start it over the middle. Just trusting his stuff. Small sample, but clearly they've got some level of confidence as they've been working with him for a while and he's gotten multiple chances. The only thing left now is for one of the injured pitchers to come back and be able to give us a Inning or 3. Ashby if he can come back with the upper 90s velo, Lauer more of a LHed Wilson at this point. Or...Gasser.

I didn't even really think of that. But I...KINDA get the thinking. If you're watching this team everyday, you've got recent memories of Payamps and Peguero faltering and blowing leads, Chaffin really struggling and Wilson(that's mainly just bad luck). Even Williams has a blown save in there. Peguero an ERA of ~8+ in the last...4-5 weeks. It hasn't been QUITE as solid as just get it to Peguero, Payamps and Williams. But that's also comparing it to the scoreless inning streak. In reality, we've got Uribe who's coming on like Emmanuel Clase, a lock down SU/CL combo, a 7th inning man who's still pretty damn good on balance. McGill all the sudden looks like a stud, Milner looks fantastic,

That is not the same Hiura as last year. I don't know what it means, if he'd come up and put up a 850 OPS for the Brewers, but that's a cleaner swing.

It's always hard to tell. A lot of times the younger teams will look the best in pre-season as you're playing guys who could/should play a big role in the regular season later in the pre-season games. Heath for example, he's made this roster IMO. I can't imagine how he doesn't. And I think he's going play a significant role in STs before earning snaps on offense, but he brings that toughness you lost with Lazard. Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden are both guys who have looked good. Enagbare has looked outstanding. Van Ness looks...one dimensional at this point, but sooo much like Gary(power rush and then hustling down the field to make plays). I don't know what this team is in terms of Wins and Losses, but there is a whole lot of exciting young talent. Musgrave, Reed, Heath, Wicks, Valentine(he really looks like a starter in the NFL...and I don't care if he's covering backups). Wilson is a guy I think they lose if they don't keep him. And I know people think that every year, there's always going to be a guy fans think will get claimed...ignoring each team has players like that. But Wilson is different. The balance he runs with, the power, speed and MOST importantly, his vision and reads are better than any RB sans Aaron Jones. And Clifford has been an awesome surprise as well. It's got a similar feeling to the Brewers. This year probably won't be "the year," just as '24 likely won't be the year for the Brewers, but you can see so many of the pieces in place. And then you look ahead at the '24 draft, which is insanely deep, particularly where the Packers likely need help(OT/DL)...and I'm just hoping the old man in New York gets to 65% of the plays.

It's starting to look less and less irrational.

On the heels of a 3-5 and 4-4, 1BB game now, Adames looks like he's getting going a bit. Part of it has been an abnormally low BABIP(.232 just a week or so ago, not up to .244). A strong finish to the season and a productive playoff run could rebuild a whole lot of value. No clue what LAD would give up for him, but a 1 for 1 with a guy like Pepiot would be good with me.

There is a much stronger argument to keeping Burnes and Woodruff when you have the 3rd rated farm system in the game and players coming up behind this current crop...than there was when you had the 20th ranked farm system and you had a couple of blue chip prospects. Hopefully you'd be looking at offering 3 Qualifying offers with Adames earning one...and then you've got a very healthy bonus pool again and we could hopefully see another draft that follows the model of this past draft. The problem in my opinion is the final year of those players doesn't line up as well as you'd hope with the prospects. Black, Quero and Chourio at best will be rookies(I'd guess Quero will spend most of next year in AAA short of any injury issues or another black hole at DH that necessitates moving Contreras to DH on a more regular basis). I just think you're gonna be in a better place the next 5-6 years if you get young pitching that can come up and develop with the young hitters then going for it all in one year. As a fan, it's sure as hell be a lot more fun to ride it out and see Chourio and Burnes on the field together. And if Attanasio is to be believed, and call me naïve, but I do...I think the money is that to increase the payroll in a year they think they can be competitive. So while Burnes(~20), Woody(~20), Yelich(22) and Adames(12? I have no idea with him) making ~75M among the 4 of them, I think they should be able to pull that off with the youth and pre arby players all over the field.

MAYBE losing Burnes(and even Woodruff) does not mean we're in a "rebuild." We'd almost certainly be improving our offense, our defense and we'd be downgrading our SPing with Gasser hopefully Ashby, Carlos Rodriguez and then perhaps a FA signing(perhaps Miley is back as well) heading into next year. That wouldn't be a rebuild. It'd be a necessary transition for a team that cannot afford to pay TOR pitchers a year our from FA. Heading into next year if you just told me they traded Burnes and kept Woodruff, I'd expect the Brewers to be an mid 80 win team, but one with a wider variation of potential outcomes as you don't know what you'd be getting exactly from Chourio, Black, Mitchell(he has looked good in small samples, but I don't know if he's kinda an elite 4th OFer with Chourio/Frelick and Wiemer or if he pushes one out of the lineup or platoons(they shouldn't consider platooning Chourio and I don't like platooning Frelick so that leaves the one option). We actually were big spenders there for a minute under Selig. We led the AL a couple years, handed out the big contract in MLB history to Yount...but that's when the payrolls were 20M, not 500M with the luxury tax like the Mets are paying. In any event, I don't think he's blaming Attanasio. He worked in the FO before moving back into the dugout. I think he understands...as you said.

No, you don't seem like you're getting emotional about this at all. Now, the MAIN point...he doesn't have a reliable 2nd breaking ball. And to be clear, Misiorowski HIMSELF disputed the Statcast. Jesus dude...this is the 2nd post and my POINT is that he doesn't have a starting pitchers repertoire yet. Call the mid 80s to upper 80s breaking ball a CB. He's STILL lacking that 2nd reliable breaking ball. So then we agree and you can calm down a bit.

First of all...you don't need to get so emotional. Second, you AGAIN ignored the...overwhelming majority of my post and the parts that were actually relevant. Third, here's another scouting report; And a 3rd; Or you could go back and look at his futures game where he showed two pitches. A FB and a Slider. He's got a breaking ball that sure looks like a slider to me. And his outing at the Futures Game where he was showcasing his best stuff. That looks like a FB/SL with a mid 90s Cutter thrown in there. Not a dominant CB. But lets say it's a CB or a "slurveball." It's not a reliable 3rd pitch he can get over the plate yet. THAT in all of your anger seems to be the point you're missing out on. You can't allow OVER two runners per inning as a high leverage reliever on a playoff team. And yet he's been FAR better at AAA than Misiorowski has been at AA...which is kinda making my point. AGAIN, 21 IP and he's given up 27 runners via HBP and BB. The point WASN'T that we have to bring Viera up. The point was just because we've got a prospect with flashy stuff doesn't mean it's in his best interest or ours to rush him up.

I don't think outside of kicker, I think just in general. Carlson is going through his rookie bumps, but he's got a monster leg and he can look really good at times. But the safety position...unless we get an unexpected contribution from Savage and then move Douglas(which seems unlikely)...I don't know what the plan is. 1st-Get Stokes back. The CB position at the moment should afford him plenty of opportunity to take his time, but outside of that, you have CB-4 Locks(Stokes PUP) -Jaire(true #1) -Valentine -They've said he's arguably not just been the standout rookie of the camp, but the standout PLAYER...which is insane as a 7th round pick, but every time we've seen him, he looks outstanding. He looks like a starting outside CB. -Nixon-Has the slot position -Douglas- He's filled in very well, but he's not an ideal match with these other CBs. Even Moreso when Stokes comes back. He's at his best reading the QBs eyes, playing the ball. Likely to make 53 -Corey Ballentine-He's a competitive CB. He's looked good at times. He's physical and a very good STer. Long shots -Jean-Charles-Seen some flashes from him, but we've seen those the last couple years. Practice Squad -Kiondre Thomas-He's physical and pretty solid in coverage, but has had a quiet camp. At this point, I think he's waived and finds a place elsewhere. -William Hooper- He's got good speed, he's also made some nice plays, but he's also been very physical. He has one more week and has a chance to play himself onto STs. Joe Barry needs to be creative and get the 4 CBs on the field as much as possible. Savage-Should get another chance, but he's best suited as a slot and he's not been very physical. Just kinda peaked year 2 and then hasn't been reliable since. Sapp, Ford...none of them have really shown much. Anthony Johnson is a guy I'm holding out some hope for. He may not start early on, but he has the ability to work his way into the lineup. Good coverage skills, physical...and smart. That'd be my secondary Jaire/Valentine/Douglas/Nixon/Savage and then Anthony Johnson in the nickel or Rudy Ford if you need a little more thump. But you can move guys around. Just call it 4 CBs and 1 Safety if it makes Barry feel less apprehensive about "moving Douglas to safety." Let him play Robber or play some Cover3 match with him playing that underneath zone. Less run and cover, more read the QB and jumping routes.

This came up on another thread and...I'll just reiterate my objection. Misiorowski has thrown 21 IP in AA. He has 11 HBP in 5 starts(2,4,0,3,2) and he has another 16 BBs to go with 17 hits allowed. So that's 44 runners allowed in 21 IP. His WHIP is 1.57, but obviously Whip doesn't account for HBP. So add that and we're at about 2.1 "Whip." He's electric, but so is Thyago Vieira for example. He's got that triple digit fastball and a nasty slider and he's performed better in AAA than Misiorowski has at AA(albeit in limited innings). Vieira- 3.48 ERA in ~35 IP in AAA he has 3 HBP, 15 BB, Whip of 1.37, 44 Ks so he's a big strikeout pitcher. He's got electric stuff, a nasty slider. But we're not clamoring for him because...he's not an exciting young prospect. You'd need to add him to 40 man well before it's really necessary, you'd start his clock(even if it's a insignificant amount of service time) and you'd burn an option. The Burnes and Woodruff comps will be made, but while Misiorowski is a better pitching prospect than either, he's also a much more raw prospect. He's more comparable at THIS point to Josh Hader when they brought him up(though Hader was throwing better...especially when you factor in that AAA was Col Springs). And THAT is when Hader went from a starting pitching prospect in 2017(63rd rated prospect) to vital piece of the BP. And that was great. Hader worked out wonderfully. But does anyone wonder what might have happened if we'd given him more time to develop as a starter? This is the 2016 MLB top 100 Write-up for Hader when he was still a starter; So he was AAA starter putting up a solid season. The concern for Hader at that time was being able to repeat his delivery and developing a 3rd pitch. That sounds a WHOLE lot similar to Misiorowski at this point than it does Burnes or Woodruff. Both were established starters. If they force him into the pen before he's ready, he could definitely have some success as a multi-inning reliever. But I think there's a strong chance he relies exclusively on his FB/SL combo, not develop the Change or the CB, both of which are well behind in their development and now Misiorowski becomeswhat? Abner Uribe? And before you say "they can just move him back into the rotation," we've seen with Ashby, that's not always the best for a younger pitcher. I think it's hampered Peralta. I think it only worked with Woody and Burnes because they were two workhorses who were further along in their development having spent 3 years in College, more of a track record in the minors, but MOST importantly, both had 3 really good pitches at the time. So just my opinion, I'm leaving Misiorowski in AA the rest of this year, starting him there next year and letting him spend most of the year there, making him throw his CB, Change and Cutter more regularly. As great as Josh Hader was, his value is always limited by the fact that he throws 1/3rd to 1/4th the innings a TOR starting pitcher throws. Long story short, give this kid a chance to develop. He's got premiere stuff, but he's only a year out from being drafted out of a JUCO and he doesn't turn 22 until after the start of next season. #1 priority should be make this team better this year and; #2-developing Misiorowski into a SPer. I really don't think either are best served. But again, I understand the excitement. A guy who can throw 103 with insane movement, the Brewers history of bringing up pitchers to throw in the pen late in the year. It also makes sense...until you break it down(In my humble opinion). Robert Glasser however? That one is a no-brainer. He can come in and throw a couple innings and easily transition back to the rotation next year. Hell, Carlos Rodriguez makes as much sense as anyone IMO.

LOL...I didn't know there was a Tyler Black height debate, but....I'll let that lie. And it'd stand to reason that Chourio's listed height may be inaccurate. You're picking these kids up when they're 16/17. I don't think they're placing height over athletic ability or bat skills. I think when they're looking at young kids and trying to guess what a 14-15 year old kid will be(which is when most players agree to sign with a team)...you're projecting how good that guy is going to be. Obviously we know with pitchers your frame and build play a significant role. If Logan Henderson was 6'4 when drafted, they'd be talking about how he could hopefully add a couple MPHers to his velo, but at 5'11, his ceiling is a bit limited. But it doesn't take away from how effective he's been this year. But it's also the case with hitters. Look at the top 10 in OPS. You have Ohtani 6'4, Olson, 6'5, Freeman, 6'5, Tucker, 6'4. Everyone is 6'2 or taller but Acuna Jr and Mookie Betts. Even guys who are more compact like we think of Trout, he's still 6'2 235. Longer levers obviously are more conducive to hitting for power. There's more room to fill out. The players listed are almost all extremely talented with very high ceilings, but Lara has limited upside at 5'7, he's likely to not hit for much power. O'Rae, same. Carlos Rodriguez(CF)...very few guys under 5'10 have much in the way of power. On the other hand, you get a big guy like Adams, Wiemer, Yophery, Bitonti(don't need the whole list again) and you've just got more upside. That doesn't mean you have stringent size criteria like the Packers do when it comes to drafting positions...it just means you're more likely to find top prospects who are over 6' than under.