BrewerFan

Yeah... I'd probably neve trade a prospect if I were making the call. I still hate that trade we made for Lockridge giving up Jorge Quintana. BUT, if we're going to, I hope we're at least selling high on guys. Adamczewski, Luke Adams perhaps(I don't know if ONE game will elevate him, but he was on some top 100 lists or HM on some). Just leave Braylon Payne and Bishop Letson, Knoth alone. I'd also probably prefer trading for a guy like Grant Taylor if I had it my way. If each cost the same in prospect capital... I'm taking 6 years of Taylor(or ~5.5) and turning him into a starter or Ashby's RHed compliment. I'm inclined to agree with Nate, the Cubs would be the ideal landing spot for Skubal. Throw him on the Dodgers and it's a joke... but their ability to throw River Ryan into the deal and one of their 6 OF prospects who are top 100, it just barely even hurts them. So I don't know what my opinion is other than... if it happens, I'll be happy and make the most out of a rotation that has Woody #4 and Sproat hopefully getting right in AAA for a bit and then coming back and throwing 3-4 IP at a time out of the pen.

Yes, obviously the longer they have to cover, the worse they get, but the Packers had a good pass rush in 2023 and 2024 ranking 7th and 11th in pressure rate respectively and their CBs were... still not good. They were forced into playing zone as they came out and said. They went from having Jaire as their #1 CB, Nixon in the slot and Stokes.. hoping he'd bounce back to asking Nixon to play outside, Jaire gone and Stokes never recovered from his injury(at least until last year where he was an elite cover corner while we got Hobbs who was a bad fit from the time they signed him). The "biggest hole," has clearly been the Special Teams the last 3 years, but CB has been the 2nd worst group since Jaire went down. I do agree you can get by with great Safeties and a front 5 that has Micah Parsons. We saw that last year. You can also get by by protecting them and playing zone and coming up and tackling well. Guys like Micah Parons completely change your defense. I am a bit jealous of the Rams who went out and fixed their CB room with two lite CBs. One of the best in the NFL and then another VERY good CB. Nixon is a good value yet, Vaentine is a good depth guy who can maybe become more. But I'm hoping we seee more out of the newcomers. As for their grades; I don't think Nixon has graded out as a top 20-30 CB ever unless maybe you go by his run defense or something. Valentine two years ago was the highest either of them have graded out... as least per PFF. Nixon- 2023 54.5 Coverage grade(worst on the team). 2024-60.7 coverage(64.5 overall, 88 of 222 CBs). 2025-66.4 coverage 41st of 114 Valentine-2023-65.5 coverage grade(pretty limited snaps) 2024-70.3 2025-65.7 44th of 222 CBs

That's probably been run even worse than the Angels, but they at least look like they hired the right POBO and GM to turn things around.

I think Kohl at least let the Basketball people run the Basketball side of things(which is why I actually blame Karl for blowing that team up). I believe with Ohtani, the Baseball people wanted to trade him and Arte was the one who vetoed. Though, I'd push back on the "no chance," when they were... just 3 games out and 4-5 games over .500. Still, passed on Junior Caminero, Carson Williams plus. Not just that, but the prospects they traded FOR players. And then they immediately lost 7 straight games following the deadline and Ohtani tore his UCL and needed another TJ. I can understand not wanting to let him go, but not matching the offer at the end. And then, on top of that, they went back to Arte, who I would at least understand his logic if his whole goal was to retain Ohtani, he wouldn't match the Dodgers offer. Ohtani is the type of guy even the Brewers should have tried to sign. I don't imagine we get an additional 200M in sponsorships, but I would think they'd skyrocket+ our TV deals and the contract would still end up paying for itself(as opposed to Soto or... pretty much any other player ever). Back to Detmers now, It doesn't matter much. I suggested Detmers and I did so at the time because he had good underlying metrics and was not throwing as well. ERA was over 4.40 IIRC. It was immediately before the 8IP 14K outing. They're holding both of those guys now. Soriano and Detmers... even if it's not the smart play and getting 5-6 top 100 prospects and giving up the team control that comes with those two would be the smarter way to go in order to rebuild.

Well, if Arte is the Herb Kohl of MLB, then... we just need to find a player in the last year of his contract who explicitly says he doesn't want to play in LA, who is looking to win a ring and then trade our franchise cornerstone player who is 27 and comes out and expresses how much he loves Milwaukee and wants to stay here... and we can trade those two players for each other! And then after that you can trade Glenn Robinson and Sam Cassell, Tim Thomas and blow up a team in a few weeks... for no discernible reason.

Well, how about this as a supporting point. The Brewers gave up two prospects who were... never really prospects. Never top 30, even in more mediocre Brewers farm systems. I don't think teams are trading him for that if they believe he's "premium talent." So not sure Cooper Hummel and Alberto Ciprian really qualified as "premium talent," compared to the compensation for Canha or Santana and he signed a 2 year 20M contract with the Steve Cohen Mets. You want to take issue with just... flat, objective metrics like WRC+, but you phrase it as though he went out and got some big monster deal. Also, Canha and Santana both have more WAR in their limited time with the Brewers than Escobar did with his time with the Brewers and the rest of his career through that "multi-year deal."

I remember last year when he hit .288, top 10, put up a .355 OBP and was an elite defender and had a 3.6 WAR. Not exactly a star, but... one person said they preferred Akil Baddoo over him. I'm pretty confident that they're not selling Frelick for pennies on the dollar now. I'd also argue "quite the downfall," is... VERY premature.

He's not a good starting CB all things being equal... Micah parsons makes them not equal. He's good enough with Parsons, Wyatt, LVN(who did play well when healthy last year) and just so long as he doesn't have to cover long. Ask him to play in a zone defense where the ball comes out quickly... he's going to come up and take on RBs and make plays on the ball. Valentine I thought got more hate even and he's better in coverage(some BRUTAL "tackle" attempts last year though). Nixon is a bit underrated on here.... he's incredibly underrated on other places like X where people wanted him cut this off-season... which is a massive disconnect. He's underpaid. He's get I think 12M or so if he were a FA.

To be taken with a grain of salt, but I asked Gemini... whatever. The free version is... pretty bad, but I think the Gemini pro is pretty useful. Now JUST Nixon and Wyatt- I'm a bit skeptical Nixon was ever tracking at an All-Pro level. Valentine's numbers seem more realistic. But this secondary was good enough with Wyatt and Parsons. Wyatt was really coming on as a interior pass rusher and... we all know what Parsons is. I think this unit is good enough IF those two are healthy... and I expect they will be. This defense was playing great. A couple of late game meltdowns, largely due to the offense(Browns) or Special teams. Does anyone remember the CBs on the Giants teams who beat the Pats? I'd bet most people remember Strahan, JPP, Tuck, Canty... etc...Linvel Joseph was a young IDL on that team. One reason the Rams are a little more scared(and by a little, I mean a lot) is they have some studs at CB and an elite pass rush. But I think this team is as talented as anyone that doesn't have Myles Garrett and who knows how that plays out. I argued a lot last year that our CBs were just not good enough, we had all slot CBs, plus Bullard. Once we got Parsons, I cared a lot less. Plus, we have exceptional safeties.

It doesn't seem great. If we're trading a player like Giannis, young stars or larger contracts(like Jaylen Brown) who are also stars and a pick or two make sense, then flip Brown to another contender. They can piece together bad contracts and picks. But I don't care how many 1sts we get this year, I'm looking for the next 3-4-5 years. By then, you'll be clear of the picks you owe, maybe you'll have a building block or two of young players and the means to add more young talent and be clear of the bad cap hits.

The best and most obvious trade for me is the three team with Boston and Portland OR just with Portland. We get out future picks back...we get some young talent and we try and develop our young players... I'm still skeptical Giannis actually wants a trade. I think he is split. He likes the stability and his standing in the community. That's just entirely based on some rumors combined with some things he's said. I think it's obviously in everyone's best interest to trade him vs extending him as it'd take a series of just home run picks and fluke signings to all work out to become a contender again, but I also think this is as weak as the NBA has been in a while. But we're still just way too far away. Getting our future 1sts back would be... as good as it can get(maybe... NOLA really likes Portis and we can ship him and someone else there). Seriously though, I would also be open to expanding a trade to include AJ Green if needed. He's on a very good contract and who knows if a team that trades for Giannis will be ready made for him. Minnesota seems like an awful fit. Ant, Gobert, Randle...

Man, people don't see Sproat becoming just a stud for us? The guy was hitting triple digits yesterday. The stuff looks elite, he just dominates and then has that blow up innings. I'd HATE to see him in that trade with Jett and a sweetener, whoever that may be. I think he could be that #3 with Mis and Harrison to match that Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio. Just watching the guy... the end results are infuriating, but watching the movement and when he's in the zone, even without great command, but just getting it over the plate, he's filthy. I've made the 2019 Burnes comp. I don't expect he'll become Burnes, but he could certainly become an elite #3 with the potential to be more. I see what you're saying. That's my mistake, I apologize, I misunderstood. Burnes was dominant that year. Even through June 18th of that season, he was coming off his worst 2 starters and his FIP was 1.15. Burnes was incredible at not giving up HRs that year... he didn't walk anyone. He was great. And I'm sure Miz will have a blowup at some point... but he keeps going through the BEST lineups with almost no resistance. Tonight, it'll be the Braves. That's a great lineup. I keep expecting someone to give him trouble and it's only ever really him. I said this before his May, 'he's the most talented and dominant young arm the Brewers have ever had.' Not sure if that was exactly how I put it, but it was still just the talent, not "the best," yet. Now... I think you can say... this is the best arm we've ever developed. Don't know how it'll play out, don't know if he'll throw 1K innings for the Brewers and dominate before we inevitably have to move on, but at his best, he's on another level in just how overpowering he is and how dominant. He's the type of guy who can get you two wins vs even the Dodgers. Skubal has won the last 2 Cy Young's and may be a better matchup vs the LAD just due to the lefties. For all the great pitching we absolutely did have... we won our first playoff series and last playoff series without any of those guys starting. So just maybe, this is a year you push some chips in. I think you could then use Sproat out of the pen in shorter 2-3 inning spurts and get more out of him as well and make Harrison your #3? I'm a prospect hoarder, so I'm good either way... but damn this would be fun!

I don't disagree with this. Avoiding those guys... would make much easier. The best comp I can think of for a trade like this would be the Astros trading for Randy Johnson... though, he actually lost his two playoff starts, he was a dominant, overpowering lefty. Houston gave up a lot for him. Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia and a innings eater who had little value. A LOT of trade value(maybe 70 WAR for their careers) traded away, but you got probably the most dominant pitcher to be traded in the last 30 years in a playoff race. That's what I'd be expecting and assuming health, you could then go with a rotation of... Skubal, Mis, Harrison vs the LAD and Woodruff as the #4. Hope he can give you 4-5 innings. You'd have, again, hopefully Sproat as a long man out of the pen. I think he's so close to figuring it out. I'd hate to include him in a trade and I could see Detroit wanting him... But a trade that would be worth it and would hurt would be Fischer, Adamsczewski, Letson and maybe Wilken or Adams. Of all the trades the last few seasons, I've been pretty against most of them, but this would have the ripple impact where you might have to go for it the way it'd set up your staff. Jett Williams is another option with Jesus Made on the way up. You'll still have those premium prospects, you'll still have young pitching, Priester is now a question mark, but hopefully someone who with his age can come back like Wheeler or Merril have and leaves you with a very nice rotation. Plus, the lefty vs the Dodgers with Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman? There's never a perfect time, but this is close to as good as it gets.

Aren't they ALL right behind home in that little section? I'd imagine the 500 dollar seats are directly behind home, that first row, but that's really not much... for those type of tickets to a professional sports event. What's "that much" is obviously relative, but for those seats and the benefits that go with them, I think that's very reasonable.

Ok... but why are we comparing last year and this year from Mis to just Burnes best year? I wouldn't, but I understand where you're coming from. Pena is soo talented and then Braylon Payne is so undervalued that he's the one guy I'd take off the table... at least as long as he's valued as being not one of our top 10 prospects and outside the top 100. His upside is... just enormous and IMO 3rd behind just Made and Pena... it's just I do not think his value reflects that. It's probably more likely that he ends up a 4th OFer, but with his speed, frame, the power he's already showing and he's still just 19. He could easily add 20 pounds of good weight over the next 2 years, turn into a GG left fielder and if he can improve that hit tool juuust a bit, be a .265/.380/.500 type hitter who has 30/30 tools. Again, not likely, we know "toolsy" OFers often miss, but I like him too much. I get that may be counter intuitive, but... I just don't think the trade value matches his potential and would prefer Fischer/Jett who are both more highly regarded. I think the Tigers would inside on a top 3 prospect, another guy who is at least in that ~10 range and then a 3rd piece like Letson, Hardin, Knoth(another guy I wouldn't move due to his value relative to upside). Luke Adams and Brock Willken though... throw them into the deal as we pretty much have to either trade or add them or someone will surely take them each this off-season.

It's... RARE that it's fun to watch your team play defense...(the very little defense the other 7 players played). I keep thinking he hasn't peaked yet, that in a few years, he's going to probably lose a couple MPH, but still be throwing 98-101 and then his other pitches can be so-so nasty, he just doesn't need them(he threw a change CB last night that was sooo filthy)... but I guess how much more dominant can you get?

I'm with you on everything up until "they're just not important in today's calculus." No, they still VERY much are. They're still more likely to buy a stadium once or twice a year AT the gift shop(Which is huge vs buying it online). They're going to be repeat customers and there are more of them. You can both treat them good and give the fans who have a private box or whatever, the appropriate service given how much they spent. And by the way, the luxury boxes, I've been lucky enough to sit in them quite a few times... it's really just free beer and that's mostly it. There were brats and nachos there for some, but the seats were the best part. Whatever they cost, they weren't worth the price I'm sure. But 245 for seats right behind home? That DEFINITELY seems worth it if you are a big brewers fan. It's a lot of money, I'm not saying I'm going to sign up, but it's 20K for a couple for the half season package. Food, parking, great seats? You extend Made and Mis and I'll sign up for half a season for 2 seats! Throw in Turang, I'll go the full season!

Lara 116 WRC+ in Biloxi Chourio 112 WRC+ in Biloxi Over half of those 1100 career ABs came in the Southern League(612) where he... acquitted himslf just fine. Category Stat League Rank Walks (BB) 86 1st Doubles (2B) 32 1st Runs (R) 79 1st Games Played 136 1st At-Bats (AB) 513 1st Stolen Bases (SB) 44 2nd Hits (H) 132 T-4th Now... obviously we're not expecting Lara to be anything near Chourio(I don't even think Chourio is close to what Chourio will be). But his K rate and his performance after some VERY aggressive promotions where he performed well-well above league average? That doesn't seem like a net negative. With regard to AAA... I think spending a year at AAA is maybe the least important level. AA is the level where you face the elite arms. AAA is more pitchers than throwers, but not the same high end talent.

I don't think Chourio's defense was EVER considered to be on the same level as Lara's as a minor leaguer. I don't recall Chourio being called a future Gold Gover in CF by people in the Brewers organization, and BA put a 60 field, 50 arm grade on him coming up, Luis Lara has a 70 field, 60 arm, he's played CF the whole way up, Chourio was more of a projection(and remains one, he's still at an age when many are prospects, so even using Chourio "against" him falls flat in my opinion, but I also believe it's inaccurate. And I believe it was Badler that said if not for PCA, he may be the best defensive CF they've seen in the last 20 years... but I can't say that for certain, only that I listened to a pod in which someone said as much on BA. But, obviously you can reserve judgement. I just think it's going to be hard for this to be a bad deal... and it could end up a great deal for the Brewers. I also think we're REALLY underestimating his ceiling AND overstating the K rate. The Southern League and he had a K rate of ~16%? What are we looking for? But, back to his celling... Not his most likely outcome, but the BEST outcome you can hope for from a guy who has consistently been VERY good and has been as good as he has this year at 21 and has been a couple years younger than the league average at every level... I think it's a bit higher. If nothing else, I think it's fair to say his celling is more Stolen Bases than our DH who's dealt with back issues has averaged the last 4 years and missed a lot of time(Yelly). I'd put celling at a .300/.390/.435 ~10-15 HRs, 40 2B, 40-50 SBs, GG caliber defense in CF. Floor is probably .230/.340/.340 ~5 HRs and 25 SBs and very good defense in CF. Both assume he can hold onto his job and stay healthy. This is a guy who is a consensus top 100 prospects right now, #50 on BA's top 100(up from 99 to start the year), 91 I think on MLB pipeline and top 100 on Fangraphs and ESPN and even top 45 on Baseball Prospectus... which does NOT favor smaller high contract profiles. I think that's a low ceiling. I mean, again, the absolute best we can envision Lara doing is .264/.358/.410 (15 HR/20 SB)?

Yeah, that is kinda one of the reasons I think Payne has so much upside. That 6'2 180LB frame that could turn into 6'2 200 and that exit velo could come further.

I think he can hit .240/.330 and be a 4-5 WAR player. His CF defense is... out standing. As long as he doesn't try and "rob" a HR that's 40 feet over his head(or in his case, hits the yellow line on the wall in CF)... he should be good!

ORCL today is a going to be a... interesting little data point for this discussion. 553B in backlogs as of last quarter. The market wants to know if their Capex is turning into revenue, how much of that backlog is being realized. I JUST bought a few shares. Just because of the 12.5% implied volatility. One of us will look more or less right tonight(though, it'll take years for either to be actually proven right... at least in my case, @owbccould be proven right in the near term).

I think it's ultimately SMR's, but that's... a whole cadre of regulatory issues, but those are currently going through the NRC, EPA... and I think you'll start to see them going up, and they can use spent fuel from larger nuclear reactors. I have OKLO in an account for my kids. I think it has the chance to be a massive, game changing innovation and I believe they have one operational that... should help expedite other reactors. As opposed to running on Natural Gas, this is pretty environmentally friendly. But that solution is hardly going to solve the issue in the very near term which is actually pretty bullish for NVDA and AMD IMO. Rubin is far more energy efficient than Hopper was(10-15X more efficient) and AMD's GPUs, MI450 series were actually more efficient which forced NVDA to re-design RUBIN and keep it slightly more efficient(someone who is more tech savvy on here would be able to explain this better, but but because Energy is such a massive bottleneck, it's cost efficient to upgrade the GPUs. That's why everyone was projecting this year the AI CapEx would cool down and now you have companies saying they're going to spend over 800B from what was projected to be 440. And that's just the 5 hyperscalers(AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL) and that number is expected to exceed 1.1T next year... while using ~13% of the Electricity in the Country. So... it's a huge issue, but it's also why NVDA is projecting 1T in revenue JUST on Blackwell and Rubin through the end of next year+200B on their CPUs, their licensing, I don't know if their gaming is even relevant any longer and they've guided for margins to remain the same OR grow. True for today, but isn’t that the exact limitation 'agentic AI' is trying to solve? With companies like Broadcom making custom chips and Nvidia integrating Groq, the focus has shifted to giving models a few seconds of 'thinking time' to self-correct complex logic, rather than just building a giant, power-hungry brain. Probably better for humanity, but... which companies? I can't see the trillion dollar companies giving it up after they've spent ALL the money they have to just go back. I don't see this becoming widely adopted by banks and... well, the other sectors I've listed, but if you have AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, ORCL, OpenAI, Anthropic, SoftBank all working on this... it feels like a game of Poker where you've already bet an AWFUL lot to fold when you are working toward the solution(or a... flush, whatever). These CEO's have effectively said as much. Zuckerberg He openly admitted that the industry might end up "misspending a couple hundred billion dollars," but argued that folding or building too slowly is a much higher risk. If you drop out of the pot and a rival hits "superintelligence," you are permanently out of the game. Sundar Pichai (Google): "For us, the risk of underinvestment is far greater than the risk of overinvestment." These companies have hundreds of billions of revenue and I think they're going to keep pushing. I think they envision Robots(I'm thinking of AMZN) running their fulfillment centers. The idea that the AI boom is reliant on a "circular financing" loop completely falls apart when you look at the actual scale of real, incoming corporate cash. Strategic investments in infrastructure partners like CoreWeave aren’t speculative fluff; they are backed by a massive, supply-constrained $100 billion revenue backlog anchored by the biggest buyers on earth. The return on investment isn't some vague 2030 promise, it is hitting corporate balance sheets right now. Despite pouring hundreds of billions into infrastructure, the 2-to-4 trillion-dollar hyperscalers are growing top-line revenue at historic rates while expanding their operating margins. Amazon is growing total revenue at 16% year-over-year DESPITE $200 billion in CapEx. That growth is being heavily driven by AWS, 28% year-over-year to just under $40 billion in quarterly revenue. Most importantly, their operating margins inside AWS are expanding, proving the cash generation is getting more efficient even as they build out capacity. Microsoft posted 18% total revenue growth and 29% cloud growth year-over-year. Here again, their overall operating margins climbed to 46.7%, up from around 44% three years ago. Alphabet -22% year-over-year total revenue increase to $110 billion, with Google Cloud coming in over 20B. Their overall operating margins have steadily expanded from 31.9% two years ago to 36.1% last quarter. Meta Revenue 33% to $56 billion. Even with half their budget going toward infrastructure, their operating margins are STILL ~41% which is up nearly 4 percentage points over the last two years(though down from the same quarter last year... but still, up 4%). And again, you have 1.1T in backlogs for Alphabet and MSFT I guess I'll just have to agree to disagree. I think we're going to have bumps in the road, but again, the fundamental difference between this buildout and the Dot Com buildout is... revenue. These companies are investing because OpenAI is generating roughly $2 billion a month in actual, cash-in-hand revenue, a $24 billion annual run rate. For a company THAT young and that just just released its main consumer product a few years ago, that is the fastest revenue growth in tech history. Even their closest competitor, the younger(and better IMO) Anthropic, is hitting a massive $30 billion run rate. Do I think they're worth their valuations? No. I sure won't be buying those anymore than I'll be buying SpaceX, but my concern had been OpenAI defaulting and now I don't think that'll happen, and even if it does, the companies that have invested in it, they're big enough to absorb that. By the end of this year, the private sandbox era is officially over. Their books, audited revenues, and real-world corporate margins are about to face full public scrutiny on Wall Street for OpenAI and Anthropic(I like Anthropic and NOT OpenAI so much). If the revenue wasn't real, they wouldn't be racing to open up their financial statements to the SEC right now. Bumps in the road are guaranteed, but comparing a sector generating tens of billions in software sales to a 1999 tech company that didn't even have a product is just a... flawed comparison in my opinion. If I ever learned to be succinct, I'd just say, "I disagree because Michael Burry agrees and after the "the Big Short," he's been so comically wrong every time, that in and of itself gives me absolute conviction." But last word- None of what I'm saying is arguing that I DON'T think a recession or a crash is possible... but I am saying, I don't believe it'd be because of the AI revolution. Honestly, I think the AI revolution brings on the real harm and pain in about 10-15 years when we're looking at massive unemployment, multiple trillionaires, the concentration of wealth that'd make the great depression blush and the massive impact(or influence) those companies who are people(but not really people) will have.

I actually see it completely differently... comparing this to the dot com bubble completely misses how the economics work here. In the 90s they built empty lines and just prayed people would use them, but right now we are in a massive supply shortage driven by actual corporate demand. Look at the cloud backlogs alone, Microsoft is sitting on nearly 700 billion in backlog and Google is over ~470 billion... that is over a trillion dollars in signed contracts they physically cannot fulfill fast enough because they don't have the compute and they're not growing as much as AWS. Google's CEO literally said their cloud revenues would be significantly higher if they could just get the infrastructure to meet the demand. This isn't a bunch of pre revenue hype plays, Nvidia is trading at a totally reasonable valuation for its earnings growth... and their older 2020 Ampere chips are renting out for more than they originally sold for because the market is so bottlenecked. The ROI is already hitting the bottom line, AWS is what's driving Amazon, and Meta is going to save hundreds of billions in worker costs by not having people monitor content as things move to agentic AI. I think a lot of this is just bad for people. I don't know how to say that more plainly. It LOOKS to me and to a lot of other people like there's going to be a lot of jobs that will be lost, but we also don't know. We've said that about every major shift. The internet, the assembly line... history has shown us this over and over, technological innovation has triggered labor anxiety. We're in the...what, Fourth Industrial Revolution in this Countries history, Internet, mass production/assembly line, and... I guess the steam engine(working backward) or the shift from an agrarian economy to heavy machinery that created a massive demand for Iron workers and mechanics and more that I don't know or can't think of(steal workers I guess). And LLMs and cloud are just the first wave, agentic AI and robotics are going to be absolutely massive... it's not FOMO propping up the market(or not JUST FOMO), it's a trillion dollar backlog of companies standing in line waiting for compute, it's trillions of dollars that have yet to be fulfilled. The FOMOs The IPOs... of course the ones I assume you're talking about are OpenAI, Anthropic(maybe SpaceX which is ridiculous, will probably run up to ~200 before people start selling off and if I was smarter, I'd probably short it right after it comes out). I hope that retail isn't dumb enough to chase these particular IPOs. There were some that were pretty nice to get in and get out of... I was lucky with CRCL and CRWV(they have 100B in backlogs as well FWIW)...CBRS(or Cerebras whatever the ticker symbol is). I got out well before the top on each and didn't put in much, but these upcoming IPOs, yeah, I'm not touching them. They're insane. So I agree there's some big questions about some of these upcoming IPOs and valuations, but you have 85% of the companies in the S&P who are beating earnings. The bottom line of these companies are strong and despite the terrible macro conditions, a War, inflation going back up, Tariffs(which were terrible, but also a great opportunity... though I think there was a lot of shady things going on there). I also think you have to look at the fundamentals of the companies and they remain just incredible. We're in June(a historically bad month) or a mid-term year(a historically bad year) we've gone from the expectation of MULTIPLE cuts to now a potential hike, and a WAR!!! But I still think as we start next quarters earnings reports which... the big ones are a bit out yet(though ORCL is tonight with a 12% implied move) I think you'll continue to see beats and raises and more validation.

And we will find out in 6 minutes if the bloodbath continues or if we're going to be going green for the foreseeable future. I am fully expecting the chart to look like the movie Carrie. But hey, maybe CPI will come in at 3.8. Or maybe it won't matter that much since it doesn't seem like the market and the actual economy are even tangentially related anymore! Edit-Nope! 4.2% and Essentials came in at 2.9%. Another hot print... but I feel like this was close enough to estimates that the market was expecting this, so it shouldn't be... too bad. Premarket movement is fine.