rluzinski

I'm heading to Champps, near Southridge. Big place, good food, HD TVs everywhere and I'm sure they are running some prizes/games for the game.

Having only gotten 7 AB in the majors this year, Brad Nelson has not had the opportunity to show us anything. He had a pretty nice year in AAA, though: .286/.380/.480/.860 (475 AB) I'm fine with giving him a couple of AB against righties, if needed.

Because in baseball, the odds for playoff series are pretty even no matter what. I have the Brewers with a 46% chance of advancing.: http://rluzinski.blogspot...-phillies-vs-brewers.html Some professional handicapper agrees: http://playoffodds.blogsp...eckett-injury-update.html Vegas says 40%. The Brewers are not some huge dog.

I absolutely agree that 175 innings of what Benny gives you is worth 13-14-15 mil per, but I'm hesitant to believe that we can expect those kinds of innings from Benny going forward. I'm hesitant to just assume that a pitcher with a checkered injury history has a higher probability of a catastrophic injury. It's a reasonable theory, so you may be right. I know that projection systems generally just use some kind of average IP from previous years to estimate the following season. That might be a lazy guestimation or it might be the best way to do it. I know that any pitcher runs a risk of blowing out his arm. There are countless examples of guys who were the model of health ending their careers in as second. I also know that there are players who get the dreaded "injury prone' label at some point in their career and go on to be the model of health. I guess I'm not willing to presume anything with regard to injury history. It seems terribly unpredictable. 175 IP might be too high an assumption on my part, though. Let's adjust that down to something more conservative. A year and a half ago, one of the authors of "The Book" said this about Sheets: "This guy would be the best 30-and-under pitcher to hit the free agent market since.... I don't know when.* The injury factor is huge. He's basically a +.25 WAR [wins above reserve]per 9IP pitcher. Multiply that by something between 14 and 22 "full games", making him between +3.5 and +5.5 WAR . * Sabathia? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't think Sheets has done anything to hurt that WAR projection, so lets run with it. 14 full starts is 126 innings. I think that is pretty conservative, so we'll use that. Look up 1 year, 3.5 WAR here: http://www.tangotiger.net/salary2008.html Add about 10%, since that was for last off season, and you get that production being worth about $17 mil on the the open market in a 1 year deal. If the Brewers could get him for that, I'd be be very happy. And if he ends up pitching 175-200 innings, he's an absolute steal. If the Brewers flop, you could still trade him. I wouldn't even consider signing him to a long term deal.

Was there other information that said this could potentially hinder him in 2009? The quote from earlier in the thread seems pretty clear: "It's a very easy heal -- it just takes time," Ash said. "Short-term, it's not good," Sheets said. "Long-term [estimate] would be fine. I was glad it wasn't something that it's short- and long-term. ... If the Brewers are lucky, teams don't want to give Sheets a long term deal and he decides to accept the arbitration. I don't want Sheets in a long term deal but I sure as heck would take him on a one year deal, though. If he's good for 175 innings and 3.25 ERA, he'll earn his money.

I know he's Prince Fielder and I know he's our best hitter, but my gosh, why can't the man square up and push a bunt down the 3rd base line when he leads off an inning and the 3rd baseman is playing almost up the middle? The same reason other LH sluggers don't (at least successful) when they face the same defensive alignment? Maybe it really isn't as easy as people think. Corey Hart had better learn how to bunt in a hurry because he'll sure as heck isnt doing anything else. He's bunted plenty of times in his career... usually trying for a base hit. Seems like he completely whiffs on those attempts as well though, these days.

Go to baseballreference.com, search for him and hit the splits option. You can see his stats batting out of every position from any year. Is this thread about how Cam HAS done as a leadoff hitter for the Brewers or how he should be expected to perform as a leadoff hitter going forward?

Off topic but I would think that a muscle tear is a MUCH better diagnosis than damage to the joint itself. The Brewers can offer him arbitration without worrying about his health, now.

I don't really follow basketball but 1 player can have a much larger effect on his team's win% than 1 baseball player, right? An elite starting pitcher playing over his head (1.75 ERA) for an entire season is worth about 10 wins over an average one. That's the difference between an average team and a marginal playoff team but that would be the ceiling for an effect. A superstar basketball player can turn a below average team into a solid playoff team, correct?

Looks like Svuem-ball is dead, according to comments from Melvin in the paper today.

17th in the majors in scoring runs, and 25th in batting average. Never compare the AL with the NL. There's no point with the DH. The Brewers are 7th in the NL in runs scored.

I was at a gas station tonight and saw a guy with a Yankees hat on..... Then thought about how the Brewers are in the playoffs and the Yankees are not.. what a great feeling. I'll see your Yankees and raise you a Mets. No New York team but Milwaukee, Tampa and maybe Min. Now let's see if MLB can do what the NFl does so well and actually promote some of these small market teams during the post season.

You can use fangraph.com's WPA to see what player's performance had the largest net addition to the team's chance of winning over the whole year: Sabathia 3.50 Braun 3.34 Fielder 2.78 Sheets 2.70 No surpises there. The worst positional hitters: Counsell -.88 Hart -1.87 Kendall -3.0 Sad to see Hart down there with those two. There are a heck of a lot of Brewer relievers that have really bad WPA's

If CC is wearing down, that would be a great reason not to start him for game 2. He hasn't shown any obvious signs of fatigue, at least insofar as it affecting performance. That doesn't mean that the Brewers should take it for granted. He better be closely monitored. I just can't understand this Suppan situation. Bush easily outperformed Suppan this year. It wasn't even close. On top of that, Suppan has been horrible for a month now. He was lucky to escape that last start relatively unscathed, IMO. Is there really any question who's the better overall pitcher? Is there any other sport where fans would argue starting the inferior player, just because he had prior success in the playoffs? Baseball has the history and culture that allows the playoffs to have a very special atmosphere. The season is so long that to have it all decided on in a couple of weeks is exhilarating for the fans. But in the end, it's the same game that they've been playing for 162 games. The stakes are higher, of course but that's true for any sport. You don't play your #5 WR over your #3 one just because of playoff experience. You play your best players and Suppan isn't one of them, IMO.

The Brewers are a good but not great team, and often enough, those kind of teams miss the playoffs. I'm thankful that, for once, everything fell perfectly into place for the Brewers. The Phillies are the better team but I don't think dramatically so. In a 5 game series, that might make the Brewers 40/60 underdogs. Big deal. I have to say, I'm playing it safe and setting the expectation bar low, though. The Brewers better win at least 1, since I'm taking my wife to game 4 and going with someone else to game 3. A happy wife is a happy husband!

Those middle relievers sure came in handy over that final week...

Backcatcher, I expect more you with regard to Sheets' win/loss record. Look at his run support (ESPN has it) for his career in Milwaukee, vs. his ERA. It makes complete sense why his record is what it is. Cherry picking a couple of pitchers proves nothing. And Suppan can be counted on so much that he's probably the 5th best pitching option for the postseason. Don't see any value in that.

Do people not want Gallardo to pitch game 1 because he is young or because he might not physically be ready to do so? All else equal, I'll take the experience but things are not close to equal. Yo is about a 1.5 runs/9 better than Suppan. There's not enough veteran presence in the world to make up that gap. Gallardo is ready and able. He is a supremely talented pitcher. Play your best players.

Yost was not good at his job, so I don't feel bad that he was fired. I feel bad the WAY he was fired. The timing was pretty brutal. Unprofessional, IMO. They should have just dumped him at the sll star break (or last off season). And I have a hard time believing that Yost led the Brewers to a 20-7 August but had a 0% chance of finishing 7-5. I think it's just a tidy, convenient way to look at it. I mean, it was 7-5, against Cin, Pit and a resting Cubs team. Not exactly some huge accomplishment. He probably wouldn't have done as well with the pitchers but may have actually scored more runs. Who knows?

I think the general consensus at BF.net is that Ben Sheets shouldn't be resigned. I don't think he should be. Too much risk. I just think it's unfair to suggest (as many seem to) that a 3.5 ERA for 150 IP/year was worthless. Hell, I think many teams would be happy to get that for what the Brewers paid. I've always liked Sheets, not just for his performance but his personality as well. He was also just a goof that didn't care if other people thought he was a goof. I got enough "athlete-speak" from everyone else.

It's 1 AM and I can't sleep. This is..... unbelievable. What a roller coaster ride this season has been.

It's 1 AM and I can't sleep. This is..... unbelievable. What a roller coaster ride this season has been.

Anyone who thinks Ben Sheets didn't earn his money this year isn't looking at this very rationally, IMO. 198 innings, 3.09 ERA. $12 mil. If he doesn't pitch an inning in the post season (which is a pretty darn good guess right now), he was still a steal this year. Heck, the whole contract wasn't really that bad. Not nearly as bad as some suggest, at least. Sheets averaged 150 IP/year over his 4 year contract, with a 3.47 ERA. The innings total is disappointing but those numbers have plenty of value. If you don't think so it's because you are looking at it from the perspective of a disgruntled fan. And if Sheets hadn't tried to go yesterday, people would have complained that he wasn't a gamer and was just being a big baby, blah blah blah. It was a no win situation for him.

Svuem has so many tools right now that I hope he doesn't worry about roles and just pitches the best options as he sees them. Use Parra as a LOOGY if you have to. Have McClung pitch the 8th and 9th if it makes sense.

No more Wendy avatar for Rluz? Wow, that is gonna be different. What will he change it to? Ned Yost?