What do you want for our surplus at SS?

[yogallardo43]

We clearly need to make a decision about the shortstop position. I am not that high on Alcides Escobar and think that JJ Hardy is underrated. I see an obvious trading partner in the Minnesota Twins. I have a couple of questions...

 

1) Who would you rather have on the Brewers (not only for next year, but in the years to come) JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar? Personally Hardy is my choice

2) Would you trade either or them for Kevin Slowey straight up? Yes (I love his 6 to 1 K:BB ratio).

[RyDogg66]

Escobar is at least a year away in my opinion. If it were left up to me I would play JJ at SS for all of 2009 and then make a decision next off season.

[colbyjack]

We clearly need to make a decision about the shortstop position.

 

Why? Escobar could spend all of next year at AAA, and even if he forces the team to call him up, we have had plenty of discussions that talk about having Escobar play 2B or having Hardy move to 3B. I keep them both.

 

However, the market may be very, very high for Hardy, which may make it tough for Melvin not to trade him. I've said it before though, and I'll say it again, no other player on the Brewers roster has as few glaring holes to their game than Hardy. If I'm looking to trade anyone, I look to trade a player who plays a position that could be improved offensively (right field), defensively (first base) or both (third base).

[logan82]

I wouldn't call one deep in the minors a surplus. That's only one injury away from nobody in the minors. I would prefer to wait until 2010 or until an injury forces our hand. Players at the AAA level ready to play in the majors is not a bad thing.

[MNBrew]

I'm with Logan. Don't deal your depth until someone absolutely forces the issue. They made a similar mistake years ago when they traded Vina and should've traded Belliard instead -- might've gotten a little more in return based on the promise Belliard showed at that time. The fun of hindsight! (For the record, I felt the same way when that trade was actually made).

 

The starting SS I see us trying to trade -- and as a SS with a ton of versatility rather than as a super utility guy -- is Bill Hall. He wouldn't net us as much in return, but he's had his best overall numbers playing that position, which would seem to indicate a high comfort level at that position. I'd settle for a solid everyday reliever.

 

To play the hypothetical game, it's hard to place a value on one commodity until there's a clearer sense of where exactly the holes are -- which is dependent on options, FA, etc.

[JohnBriggs12]

All you guys that are "not that high on Escobar" need to realize that the Brewer organization from Melvin on down is that high on Escobar.

 

Gamel and Escobar were 1 and 1a on their list of prospects before LaPorta was traded and I wouldn't be surprised if Escobar is now 1 and Gamel is a close number 2.

[RyDogg66]

That's fine, but I still dont think Escobar could hit MLB pitching in 2009.

[jhart05]

When there are still questions regarding if Gamel will be able to play 3B, and you don't have any other prospects close to being major league ready over there...

 

Give it one more year, if Gamel can't do it, move that surplus (Hardy) over there. Surplus solved.

 

I also don't think Escobar's bat is ready for the majors yet.

 

They only way I could see this, is if they have serious concerns about Hardy's long-term durability.

 

 

 

Trade Fielder, not Hardy!!

[joepepsi]

Escobar struck out 82 times in AA. That's a lot of K's for a guy who hit only 8 homers. I think he'd strike out 250 times playing everyday in majors at this point. He needs to stop missing the ball so much.

[Ennder]

They can be high on Escobar all they want but that doesn't make him a major league quality player yet. They were high on little Ben too and look where that got them. There is absolutely no reason to rush Escobar at this point.

[dadofandrew]

The thing is, Escobar would probably only hit .310/.330, or something along those lines...with very good defense of course, that's arguably an average SS. Doing so at $350K is a wonderful value, and allows funds to be spent elsewhere.

 

What many don't seem to realize is JJ with 2 years left before free agency is worth more than JJ with a year left before free agency. If they get good value for him, Alcides will be the SS in '09.

 

Another thing that often goes unmentioned is the Brewers have to "fix" 3B before putting Escobar at SS. Having a bottom of the order of Counsell, Escobar, and Kendall, while not terrible OBP wise, would be devastating SLG wise.

[jhart05]

The thing is, Escobar would probably only hit .310/.330, or something along those lines...with very good defense of course, that's arguably an average SS.

 

Do you mean in the Majors in 2009? Sorry, I think that's a little bit of a stretch. If he had to start everyday in 2009, would expect something more like .250/.275.

[TheCrew07]

I think that was a pessimistic OBP/SLG

[dadofandrew]

His MLE's have him around the numbers I projected, I do believe. Also, he's very young, so you would expect more natural growth than normal.

[joepepsi]

He hardly ever walks, strikes out a lot for non power hitter, and is right handed. Don't we already have a lineup full of these types?

 

My guess is he would hit about .375 in April then .215 the rest of the way, once the league figures out he's going to swing at every pitch. I am tired of the lack of plate discipline on this team. Leave him in AAA for 2009, or trade him if he helps to bring another starting pitcher to the team.

[Ennder]

He projects to hit about as well as Craig Counsell right now. Give him another year of growth and some time in AAA and maybe that changes some but right now he is light on power, doesn't BB enough and Ks way too much for this type of hitter.

 

I'm not saying he'll never be a good player, I just don't see any reason to think he should be in the majors in 2009 because of a high BABIP in AA and that is pretty much the only skill he brought.

[sbrylski]

Holy cow, digging through the minor league splits on Escobar - he was 12 for 13 on bunt hits last year. That's insane. 13 bunts, he reached first 12 times.

 

For his career - 32 for 40. I had no idea he was such an amazing bunter.

[dadofandrew]

You have to be a really good bunter to make it worthwhile...you never get more than a single, and you usually bunt on the 1st or 2nd pitch, failing to make the pitcher work at all...or get behind it the count if it goes foul.

 

I know I saw Braun was 3 of 4 or 4 of 5 for the year too...I sure don't recall those.

[Ennder]

Carlos Gomez had 30 bunt hits and 18 infield singles and still managed to hit just .258 with a .657 OPS. That is pretty crazy, heh.

[sbrylski]

You have to be a really good bunter to make it worthwhile...you never get more than a single, and you usually bunt on the 1st or 2nd pitch, failing to make the pitcher work at all...or get behind it the count if it goes foul.

 

I know I saw Braun was 3 of 4 or 4 of 5 for the year too...I sure don't recall those.

 

Even if Escobar was successful in 40% of his bunt attempts, he'd hit .400 / .400 / .400 with an .800 OPS in those attempts. At 80% successful, that's a 1.600 OPS. He won't be 80% successful in the bigs, but if he can grab 15 hits a season on bunts, that can add up and really help his numbers.

 

Just say he's like Willy Taveras and can reach on 50%. Taveras attempts close to 60 bunts a season. Let's give Escobar a more modest 30 attempts. That's a .500 BA in a situation he'd otherwise hit, say, .280. That's roughly 11 extra hits in 500 ABs, and would bump his average from .280 to .302.

[sbrylski]

Carlos Gomez had 30 bunt hits and 18 infield singles and still managed to hit just .258 with a .657 OPS. That is pretty crazy, heh.

 

Wow he sucks at regular hitting.

 

If Escobar can be Willy Taveras though, he'd be passable with his defense. If he develops more gap power than Willy, he could be great.

[endaround]

But Bunts aren't as valuable as singles so they screw up OPS calculations. Its why Alex Sanchez hit .300 that year and was still not very good. The big thing is you can't move men on base more than one base on a bunt.

[ILuvDaBush]

Well with a bunt, you force the fielder to hurry his throw many times, incurring an error. I would opine that their is a higher probability for an error on a bunt than an infield grounder.

[sheetskout]

I would like Hardy to be dealt for pitching, sooner rather than later. One of these years Hardy just isn't going to have the three-week streak that makes his season statistically.

 

Also, you don't deal Fielder without attempting to sign him long term. I want Braun and Fielder stacked in that lineup for eight years. I want to see them grow into their primes together. I think people are quick to forget that Prince is still very young as is Braun. Sign Prince!

[trwi7]

One of these years Hardy just isn't going to have the three-week streak that makes his season statistically.

 

Except that each of the last two years he's had three good months statistically.

 

Also, you don't deal Fielder without attempting to sign him long term.

 

We already attempted that and he declined our offer.