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Will We Have Sheets in 2009?


mdresen

Will Doug sign him to another 3-5 year deal sometime next year?

 

I'm not convinced he's a guy we absolutely MUST have, and I think our current crop of pitchers will take care of business just fine. That being said, a hometown / injury history discount would be dandy.

 

Also see Ben's injury diagram in todays Journal Sentinel article. A Sheets edition of the "Operation" game may be a nice seller in Wisconsin.

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I think we will if he gives us a little discount based on the fact that he has had some injury problems in his past contract. Do I think he will do that? I guess it depends on how much he likes the Brewers or if he really wants to go down South or to a bigger city. My guess is no.
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This was such a key issue 5 and 10 years ago when we had no farm system at all. Now there's a deep and productive farm system in place, where solid baseball/financial decisions can be made. If he's here great. If economics dictate otherwise, then we are at least in position to have the defection not be as painful as before.
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This will be a very tough call for the Brewers to make no matter what the young pitchers can do. Ben has shown at times he can be a top end pitcher, but those injuries really will make the Brewers think hard.

 

If he is moved or leaves as a free agent this site will be littered with talk of how the Brewers will deal with his loss.

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Sheets has not had any shoulder or elbow problems at all. I'd risk it in a heartbeat.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Didn't he have a surgery on his shoulder in the 2005 season? I thought he tore something against Atlanta or did he not require surgery? I don't think I'd extend him for 3-5. If anything I'd try to add a year this year and by the time he's up we can pay some younger everyday guys or see where or young pitchers are at.
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The various injuries could drive down his price a bit, but what does that mean? Would it be more likely to affect the years, the dollars, both? Burnett was a greater health risk IMO, but got 5 years nevertheless...so I think Sheets can get five years. Oswalt at 5/$73M is a reasonable comp...or Halladay's extension at 3/$40M...you're looking at $15M /year probably. (Let's not think about Zito.) Even if you think he's not as good as those guys, FA contracts go up every year, so by the 08-09 offseason the going rate for a guy like sheets might well come out to be 6/$96M or more.

 

It could well be that the minor dings Sheets has endured have minimized the wear and tear on his arm, but there's a lot of risk from the Brewers' point of view.

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Man that's a lot of money for the Crew...but it will be a test to see exactly how big Mark's pockets will get and at what speed. In baseball can you add years to an existing contract? Or does it have to be a totally new contract? Add '09 right now for say 12 - 15 million would be interesting.
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thing is, if you wanted to replace Sheets with an injury-free pitcher of equal quality, you'd be spending $18 M a year to do it. If Sheets would resign for $14 M a year (I guess that includes the hometown discount), wouldn't the injury risk be worth the $4 M savings? Plus by all accounts, Sheets is a great clubhouse and character guy. There's a value to that, too.
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The Brewers will have plenty in the budget to keep him. They should pursue signing him. Although Benny will be at an age where he'll likely want that one huge contract that most guys desire. I could see 4 years, $50 million as the hometeam discount. But he's better than Zito, only less durable. So his price could be scary
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I could see 4 years, $50 million as the hometeam discount. But he's better than Zito, only less durable. So his price could be scary

 

No way on your first point, and I agree with your second point. Sheets is going to command HUGE money.

 

I've said it before and I'll get railed on by Russ and probably others, but I look for Sheets to finally stay off the DL next year, have a great season, and break the bank just in time for the Brewers to get priced out of his services, not to mention forget about the previous three years of pitching just a little over 50% of his starts.

 

I'm not saying Sheets tries to get hurt or anything like that, it just seems that's the way things work out. I can only hope that the great, injury free season I predict in 2008 leads the Brewers to a memorable season.

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I could be way off, but I don't think 4/$50 is going to get it done. That's less in average value than Halliday, less than Buerhle's recent 4/$56M extension. Ted Lilly got 4/$40 from the Cubs. And of course the Brewers gave Suppan 4/$42...Sheets can see firsthand what a $10M free agent pitcher looks like.

 

While I don't want to think about Zito, and most people think SF was crazy, you know Sheets noticed that deal and thought, hey, I am a good bet to be better going forward than Zito. (Which he is, I think.)

 

Zito's deal, 7/$126M, *averages* $18M a year. If Sheets gives up years by signing for 3 or 4 years, I'd assume he'd do so in exchange for a greater average value...say 4/$75M? 4/$80?

 

Russ had a discussion with tangotiger about this a while back, and as I recall there was a pretty wide range of estimated value per year, but the low end in 2009 was on the order of $17M.

 

(Edit: found it, and tango says $17M - 26M.)

 

rluzinski.blogspot.com/20...worth.html

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Well, Sheets has re-signed with the Brewers once already. I could see him giving a little bit of a hometown discount. I bet he feels a little bad about his various stints on the DL.

 

That said, I don't know if the Brewers will necessarily need Sheets by 2009, as crazy as that sounds. Could they use him? Of course. But by that time, Villy, Parra, and Yo could be solidified in the rotation, and we might still have Suppan, Bush, Cappy, etc. It might come down to whether or not someone else has stepped up to be the "ace" by that point.

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If he'd sign for a similar contract as he has now the Brewers will consider it. If he wants a contract that is market value... he's gone.

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I would love it if the Brewers could lock up Sheets with a deal comparable to Buerhle's. Then again, Buerhle took a huge hometown discount to stay in Chicago, and I don't imagine the player's union is too happy with him right now.

 

I'm still holding out hope that Sheets doesn't demand crazy money -- he's always said that he's a believer that a contract offer should be a reward for what a player has done in the past. Since he's even admitted that his injuries have been disappointing, maybe he'd take a discount or a shorter extension to prove he's healthy.

 

If he stays healthy and dominant in '08, leads the Brewers deep into October, and prices himself out of the Brewers' range, I don't think I'd be too disappointed. Sure, it would stink to lose Benny to someone like the Yankees, but he's given a lot to the Brewers over the years and took the losing in stride when a lot of other ace pitchers would have been screaming, "Get me out of here!" As long as he doesn't end up with the Cubs or Cards, I'd feel good for Benny that he got the big contract that the Brewers couldn't afford and I'd probably still root for him when he's not facing the Brewers. Maybe I'm in the minority.

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No. Sheets will command a tremendous amount of money in spite of his injury history. There are perenial powers like the Yankees and Cardinals who are desperate for pitching, and the Brewers could not and should not try to win bidding wars with them. In 1990 the Brewers gave Teddy Higuera what was at that time a huge four-year deal. It was a contributing factor to the long, dark nightmare from 1993-2004. By 2009 the Brewers will be staring at long-term deals for Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and Hart in order to buy out years of arbitration and free agency. They'll have to rely on their minor league pitching depth and more Melvinesque shrewd trades. I can live with that.
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Quote:
There are perenial powers like the Yankees and Cardinals who are desperate for pitching, and the Brewers could not and should not try to win bidding wars with them.

 

I disagree. I think that I would be willing to let go of one of our position players at that time, for the ability to hang onto Sheets, who truly is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league when healthy. I am terrified of us having to face the Padres in the playoffs, if we both make it, strictly because of their pitching.

 

Pitching will always prevail as the old adage says.

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Sheets is a pitcher that you absolutely cannot let go. He's a talent on the level of Santana or earlier Pedro. I believe Sheets will get past all these fluke injuries that keep happening and put up some Cy Young numbers for a while. You'll all see.

 

Oh my will the Brewers rue the day they let Sheets walk.

3TO Apostle
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Sheets has not had any shoulder or elbow problems at all. I'd risk it in a heartbeat.

 

That is what really makes me want them to resign him. Sure he has had injury's, but never a bad arm injury of any kind. And those are the ones that really screw you. See: Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark. I want Sheets back.

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

 

@IgnitorKid

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The Brewers should do everything they can to re-sign him. He hasn't injured an elbow or shoulder, and he hasn't had a recurring injury (aside from the vestibular neuritis).

 

I think Ben might sign for something close to what Beurhle/Halladay got, which would be awesome.

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