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What does the Brewers 2013 bullpen look like?


adambr2

I think it will stack up like this:

 

Axford - CL

Henderson - SU

Gonzalez - LOOGY

Gorzellany - Middle relief

Badenhop - 1 inning/ROOGY

Rogers

Kintzler

 

Pretty much a completely new pen. All of the new acquisitions should make the team. I think Rogers also winds up in the pen IF he doesn't win a rotation spot. He's out of options and I don't see any way they're going to give up on him now after all this when he's finally started to have some success.

 

Gonzalez should not face righties, and Badenhop should not face lefties except under the rarest of circumstances (no available relievers left in extras, blowout game, etc).

 

I'm giving the last spot to Kintzler simply for lack of a better option coming to mind, but I really have no idea on that one.

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Gonzalez shouldn't start the year as a loogy. You guys are reading way too much into a small sample. 4 years ago you would have been saying he should never face a lefty since he couldn't get them out for 2 seasons straight. Don't have much faith in Axford and Henderson as the 8th+9th guys so I'd really like to find one more arm to add to those innings.
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His 4 year splits since 2009 show an OPS against around .800 against righties and around .600 against lefties. That's a long enough sample size for me.

 

I'm not saying he should be exclusively limited to one lefty hitter, but I certainly think he's probably the last option I want in the 7th inning with 3 righties coming up.

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In 2010 he was much better vs RHB than LHB and in 2009 he showed a completely normal split for a LHP. In 2008 and 2007 he was better vs RHB than LHB. So out of the past 6 years he has been better vs RHB 3 of them, normal 1 year and better vs LHB 2 years. These aren't splits that jump out to LOOGY. It is a watch him pitch and use scouting to evaluate situation. There is no way they are going to start him as a LOOGY to start the year unless they see something that says he should be. Those stats don't mean anything.
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In 2010 he only faced 88 hitters in 24 innings. I doubt the splits against those 88 hitters were anything more than complete fluke.

 

Of course they will evaluate before they make any determinations on his role, but I would say that based on the last two seasons he seems to be trending towards LOOGY.

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I would think something really whacky would have to be going on for him to get the call with three righties coming up in the inning. But then again, Roenicke is the guy who named Loe the "8th inning guy" when he should never have faced lefties. Most managers seem pretty cognizant of putting LHP vs RHB whenever possible.

 

As to Rogers, I really hope they give him a chance in the starting rotation. I understand that he may eventually end up in the bullpen, but his ceiling is still a top-of-the-rotation starter, so if he can stick as a starter, he would be far more valueable to the Brewers than if he is relegated to the bullpen. I'd be pretty upset if they sign a "proven" vet with an 88 MPH fastball and he bumps Rogers to the pen. I think Estrada should remain a starter as well, so if they sign a vet who ends up in the rotation, I hope either Fiers or Peralta starts the year in the AAA rotation because they have options and Rogers does not.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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It's a walled in area with a couple pitcher's mounds where the relievers get ready to enter the game, but that's not important right now.

I just want to tell you 'good luck'. We're all counting on you.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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It's a walled in area with a couple pitcher's mounds where the relievers get ready to enter the game, but that's not important right now.

I just want to tell you 'good luck'. We're all counting on you.

And please don't call me Shirley.

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Michael Olmsted intrigues me as a possibility for the last spot in the pen. That's assuming Kintzler is a relative lock, which it seems like he may be. If he's not, then there's 2 spots obviously. Doesn't seem like anyone else will be signed, but never know if some bargains come about late in the offseason here.
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To start the year:

 

9th - John Axford

8th - Jim Henderson

7th - Tom Gorzelanny

 

//these two split an inning, and we will use them situationally (bold prediction for our team)

Mike Gonzalez

Burke Badenhop

 

LR - Chris Narveson

 

Brandon Kinzler

Fautino De Los Santos

 

Tyler Thornburg gets the call around June when Axford, Henderson, FDLS, or Kintzler is struggling and they need another high leverage reliever.

I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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It's a walled in area with a couple pitcher's mounds where the relievers get ready to enter the game, but that's not important right now.

 

More specifically, like this...

 

http://mlblogsthehappyyoungster.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/8_28_0920pirates20vs20brewers204020miller20park200081.jpg

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Closer: Axford

 

8th inning: Henderson, Gonzalez

 

6th-7th inning: Gorzelanny, Kintzler, Badenhop

 

Long man: If Peralta makes opening day rotation, the long man will be either Narveson or Rogers. If Peralta or Fiers start the year at AAA (they are the only 2 in the top 6 with options), both Narveson and Rogers will be in rotation and long man could be Jairo Ascencio. Ascencio is just a guess. He was far from the worst of the guys the Cubs trotted out there last year and he was better than guys like Dillard and McLendon that the Brewers used last year. This spot will be highly contested in spring. It wouldn't shock me if somebody like Sanchez or even Burgos has a good spring and gets this spot. Maybe even Stinson.

 

There's likely at least 4-5 other guys that will see major league time in the pen at some time.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Narveson to bullpen as the 6th starter. I read Fautino is out of options, so I think he'll make the roster. Another name to watch is Michael Olmstead, could very well be a stud.
I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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I hate the "Long Man" role in the bullpen, as I'd rather just have a couple of middle relievers who could go 2-3 innings when needed, while letting the "#6 starter" start at AAA to remain stretched out. However, if we have to have one, I'd much rather it be an older guy without much upside. Therefore, I wouldn't mind seeing Narveson in the "Long Man" role, but I'd hate to see them stick Rogers, Estrada or Peralta there. If Narveson is healthy and in the rotation, I would like it to mean that either Peralta or Fiers was going back to AAA.

 

If I had to guess right now, I'd guess that Melvin wants a lefty in the rotation, and doesn't want three lefties in the bullpen. That gives Narveson a bit of an edge, as does his "veteran presence." I don't want it to happen, but my guess is that we open the season with Gallardo, Fiers, Narveson, Peralta, Rogers/Estrada with the "loser" of the Estrada/Rogers being dumped into the "Long Man" role.

 

Edit: This of course assumes that Narveson is healthy for Spring Training/Opening Day. It may actually work out well if Narveson needs to start the season in "extended Spring Training" or on a Minor League rehab, giving the team an extra month or so to see how everything is panning out before deciding where Narveson fits in.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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This is how I see the Bullpen playing out...

 

Axford - CL

Henderson - SU

Gonzalez - SU

Gorzelanny - MR

Badenhop - MR

De Los Santos - MR

Narveson - LR

 

I'm putting Narveson as our Long man... Rogers has to much potential to be left out of the Rotation.

 

I see Fautino making the bullpen as he is out of options and Kintzler has a option left.

 

This is how I see the Rotation come Opening Day:

 

Gallardo

Estrada

Fiers

Peralta

Rogers

 

I actually like our Top 3 of Yo, Marco and Mike... I can see all 3 guys having ERAs between 3.50-3.75.

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  • 1 month later...

closer: Axford

setup 1/2: Henderson and Kintzler

late innings: Gonzalez

long relief or behind: Badenhop, Gorzelanny, and extra starting pitcher (although they could let Narveson start on DL to continue rebuilding arm strength)

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I'm intrigued by Jesus Sanchez, I think he could play a role this season. Hes a converted catcher that's only been pitching a few seasons and he was really good last season. I also like what I'm hearing about both Hellweg and Olmstead. Although, I really hope they keep Hellweg as a starter and let him pitch in AAA this season.
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Although, I really hope they keep Hellweg as a starter and let him pitch in AAA this season.

 

Agreed. I hate when they convert a young guy with potential to the BP without really giving him a shot as a starter. Starters are more valuable than relievers. Let him fail as a starter before you move him.

This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
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