Billy Butler

[TURBO]

Looks like the Royals are willing to part with him, might he be a good fit in Milwaukee?

 

We could even consider moving Hunter Morris for him in a package deal.

 

Since we have dealt with Ned and the Royals in the past, I wonder if this has been discussed?

 

 

Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail reports that the Blue Jays have discussed a trade with the Royals involving Billy Butler.

 

Blair says Toronto would receive "prospects plus Butler," but the talks haven't "moved beyond the discussion stage." It's not clear what Kansas City would receive in the deal. With Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind already on the roster as first base/DH options, the Blue Jays seem likely to trade for Butler only if they can also deal Lind.

 

 

Source: Jeff Blair on Twitter

[bensheeps]

Someone more familiar with the Royals/American League - What would Butler be like defensively at 1st? A lot of games as DH scares me.

[yoshii8]

I'd love to take a shot at Butler. I hope DM get's involved.

[brewcrewdue80]

Butler doesn't sound great at 1b but I'd bet he's better than Yuni or Juan Fran defensively with a major upgrade with the bat.

 

I've wanted Butler since he's become available but put it this way, he's a QO player when the season ends. So you're not just trading his value you have to trade his value and the value of that comp pick the Royals would get should they retain him.

After trading Aoki for Smith I'm guessing there's really not going to be a move made on Butler, if it hadn't been done already. How often do two teams make major trades in the offseason on two completely different trade occasions?

[jerichoholicninja]

Getting Butler would make this season a "go for it" season. He alone won't make this team a contender so other moves would need to be made and Milwaukee doesn't have the prospects or cash to do that so I see no reason to go and get him.

[endaround]

Butler doesn't sound great at 1b but I'd bet he's better than Yuni or Juan Fran defensively with a major upgrade with the bat.

 

I've wanted Butler since he's become available but put it this way, he's a QO player when the season ends. So you're not just trading his value you have to trade his value and the value of that comp pick the Royals would get should they retain him.

After trading Aoki for Smith I'm guessing there's really not going to be a move made on Butler, if it hadn't been done already. How often do two teams make major trades in the offseason on two completely different trade occasions?

 

Butler has an option for 2015 at $12.5 m. Not sure how a QO would work in such a case. And picking up his option and trading him would be better than then QO pick anyway.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Sign Garza and trade for Butler, could we make the playoffs?

[Eye Black]

Sign Garza and trade for Butler, could we make the playoffs?

If you buy into the Fangraph's WAR projections (courtesy of Disciples of Uecker), the Brewers are currently around a 76 or 77 win team, and these two moves would likely add about 4 wins. In other words, they would be projected for a near .500 finish with the moves. Another way to look at it is the Brewers current cumulative team WAR projection is 27.9, and a team typically needs around 40.0 to be considered a "contender".

[PrinceFielderx1]

Sign Garza and trade for Butler, could we make the playoffs?

If you buy into the Fangraph's WAR projections (courtesy of Disciples of Uecker), the Brewers are currently around a 76 or 77 win team, and these two moves would likely add about 4 wins. In other words, they would be projected for a near .500 finish with the moves. Another way to look at it is the Brewers current cumulative team WAR projection is 27.9, and a team typically needs around 40.0 to be considered a "contender".

 

I don't care what the war or fangraphs projections is. if we had a pitcher like Garza and a good defensive/offensive 1B man with the same bullpen production as last season we are contenders in the NL central with a healthy roster.

[TURBO]

No way does a pitcher like Garza instantly propel us into contender status... Garza is no Ace, and doesn't pitch like an Ace.

[danzig6767]

Why is KC shopping Butler?

 

They were 11th in runs scored in the AL and if he's not their best hitter, he's close to being that. Given moves they've been making, they are in a win now mode, so shopping him for a prospect or two likely wouldn't be their objective. Trading Butler for pitching would be strange since they lead the AL in ERA, but were 11th in runs scored and 12th in SLG%. So if he's really being shopped, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless the Royals are trying to package him with something else to acquire an even bigger bat.

[brewmann04]

Bringing Yuni Back is a step in the wrong Direction why don't they Just go with Halton and Morris.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why is KC shopping Butler?

 

They were 11th in runs scored in the AL and if he's not their best hitter, he's close to being that. Given moves they've been making, they are in a win now mode, so shopping him for a prospect or two likely wouldn't be their objective. Trading Butler for pitching would be strange since they lead the AL in ERA, but were 11th in runs scored and 12th in SLG%. So if he's really being shopped, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless the Royals are trying to package him with something else to acquire an even bigger bat.

 

The emergence of Hosmer last season. Salvador Perez. The want to keep Perez in the lineup and use him as DH when he's not catching. Hosmer/Butler 1b/OF during interleague games was an issue. Hosmer isn't good in the OF. Yeah Butler is great but doesn't fit KC's team structure. It's like Matt Adams in St. Louis. Better 1b/ better OF no room for him aside from DH.

 

And, why not sell high on a guy after an allstar year and then a down year? While everyone believes he's that AllStar.

[igor67]

I'd certainly be interested in giving up some value for that level of bat. Taking both the league and park adjustment into account Butler could post a pretty big season in Milwaukee almost certainly bigger that Hart. There'd be a good chance the offense leads the NL, and the rotation could be middle of the road with a bullpen that is flexible enough to not hold onto to underperformers (which I'm coming to believe is a better strategy than trying to maximize 'studs').

 

It maybe slightly irrational, but Doug does always seem to have one significant move that comes out of the blue, and I think it's a first base related trade for someone besides Davis before the season starts.

[SRB]

I haven't watched him personally, but Butler's reputation is as a DH-only. I don't think many GMs would take him as their everyday 1B, especially since Melvin evidently wants a decent defender there next season.

[Woozee]

I haven't watched him personally, but Butler's reputation is as a DH-only. I don't think many GMs would take him as their everyday 1B, especially since Melvin evidently wants a decent defender there next season.

 

Butler has had a pretty good glove at first. If it was possible I would really enjoy seeing Butler at our 1B and I think he could thrive in the NL Central.

[RobertR]

Sign Garza and trade for Butler, could we make the playoffs?

If you buy into the Fangraph's WAR projections (courtesy of Disciples of Uecker), the Brewers are currently around a 76 or 77 win team, and these two moves would likely add about 4 wins. In other words, they would be projected for a near .500 finish with the moves. Another way to look at it is the Brewers current cumulative team WAR projection is 27.9, and a team typically needs around 40.0 to be considered a "contender".

 

The thing with projections is there are reasons to believe that they're projecting some injuries, missed time, etc. I'd agree, if the Brewers have significant injuries/suspensions, they're not a contender. I think even the most optimistic agree that good health is the key to being contenders.

 

Really, the mean projection only tells part of the story. What's the standard deviation? What's the upside? Basically, what percentage chance do the Brewers have to win 90 games? One number, the projected mean, only tells part of the story.

[TURBO]

I wonder if the Billy Butler idea has been visited by Melvin?

 

Adding a guy like this to our roster turns us into instant contenders in my opinion...assuming the Garza deal goes through.

 

I don't think that Garza or Butler alone will make us contenders, but adding both would surely be a step in the right direction.

[Warning Track Power]

Butler will likely require a deal of Thornburg and/or Nelson. I think he is a little rich for my blood especially if the Garza deal falls through.

 

I'd rather take my chances on a lottery ticket like Ike for a Hellweg than deal the SP prospects likely necessary for Butler.

[TigerUppercut]

Would a guy who's averaged a WAR of 1.4 for his career at DH/1st base, coming off a down year, with one year left ($8M) plus an option ($13.5M) on his contract command two top 100-150ish prospect types? I'm not so sure. I could see one, a fringe prospect, and a smaller salary takeback.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Let's go get this guy. Cripes Doug it's so simple.

 

Great job getting Garza done!

[igor67]

Well it's now getting into projection season, so we can attach some numbers. Davenport has the Brewers at an 18% chance at the playoffs right now with an estimate 77 wins. Fan graphs WAR predicts Reynolds for 1.5 WAR and Butler for 2.5. Looking at Davenport simulation numbers that additional win would appear to be worth about 3% improvement. I happen to think those are all slight under estimates, but we are looking at something in the neighborhood of a 20-30% chance.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Well it's now getting into projection season, so we can attach some numbers. Davenport has the Brewers at an 18% chance at the playoffs right now with an estimate 77 wins. Fan graphs WAR predicts Reynolds for 1.5 WAR and Butler for 2.5. Looking at Davenport simulation numbers that additional win would appear to be worth about 3% improvement. I happen to think those are all slight under estimates, but we are looking at something in the neighborhood of a 20-30% chance.

 

This is going to be a year where fan graphs and pretty much all preseason win indicators will be wrong about the Brewers. Based on the good RP that I know DM will get and not including a 1B man I'm predicting 90 wins and everybody being healthy and going off of 2012 numbers. Should we get a good 1B man I predict over 90 wins.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Melvin were confident he could get Butler, why just days before the Garza negotiations became public would he have signed Overbay? He may see the signing of Garza as an opportunity to move Thornburg to short relief and not have spend money on a veteran reliever. I still think Thornburg is highly valued by the Brewers.

[wallus]

I can't really see the Overbay signing stopping Doug from making any moves.