Jeremy Jeffress trade talk

[splitterpfj]

While Smith/Jeffress/Thornburg may not be elite, they are all good to very good and controllable through 2019. There's a ton of value in the control factor.

 

big time

 

Don't anybody think there isn't plenty of demand for what the Brewers have in the bullpen right now. The whole world wants relief pitching right now, and the supply stinks - those guys are good, and they have years to go before they can walk - that's not a small thing.

[fondybrewfan]

Plus Torres and Boyer have been pretty good too. Obviously the returns on trading those 2 guys would be quite a bit less but we have 5 relievers that are likely being looked at by contending teams.

 

Thornburg is probably the guy I would least like to trade although I am not exactly sure why. Jeffress being 1 strike away from a lifetime ban probably hurts his value although it certain appears that those demons are behind him

[splitterpfj]

So, two of the Cubs' top five prospects, plus two, for Aroldis Chapman.

 

For everyone who says, "But it's Chapman", I'm forced to say, "But it's about 40 IP", counting the postseason).

 

Don't tell me the Brewers can't get a big return for their bullpen guys.

 

Edit: Misters Jeffress, Smith, Thornburg, Boyer, Torres, Knebel, Blazek, and Barnes ... please report to Mr Counsell's office ...

[dacrew101]

Would the brewers be willing to trade all those relievers? That would be quite the turnover but it could help the rebuild tremendously

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't tell me the Brewers can't get a big return for their bullpen guys.

 

The Brewers can't get a big return for their bullpen guys. Chapman is a proven, elite closer. Cubs may/ may not have overpaid for him, but he's on a different level than Smith/Jeffress. And on a different planet from Boyer, Torres, Blazek, etc.

 

That's not to say the Brewers can't get a decent return for Smith or Jeffress, I just don't think it will be a BIG return. Look deep into the numbers and they are good relief pitchers, but definitely not elite.

[splitterpfj]

Look deep into the numbers and they are good relief pitchers, but definitely not elite.

 

I have no doubt, but you're missing two absolutely critical points.

 

1. There is no supply, so things that should make sense, don't make sense right now.

 

2. These players all offer three years of control beyond this season. I'd have to look, but Thornburg might even be four.

 

When you take "good" for three seasons plus a playoff race, in an extreme seller's market - it depends on your definition of a, "big return", but it's right there to be had.

 

I'm not talking about Lucas Giolito, I'm talking about more than you would have expected to get in pretty much any other season I can remember.

[splitterpfj]

Someone help me here please .... use Jeffress v Chapman and show me what the probable value of Chapman for the rest of this season is in comparison to the value of Jeffress through the end of the 2019 season.

[QuevedosTongue]

Someone help me here please .... use Jeffress v Chapman and show me what the probable value of Chapman for the rest of this season is in comparison to the value of Jeffress through the end of the 2019 season.

 

By Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Chapman is worth .5 WAR the rest of this season, Jeffress worth 1.1 WAR through 2019.

 

I really don't think it's a relevant question though. Teams that make deadline deals are trying to win this year. Jeffress' value past this year won't mean a lot to the team trading for him, IMO. It's almost strictly about what he can do over the remaining games this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

Plus Torres and Boyer have been pretty good too. Obviously the returns on trading those 2 guys would be quite a bit less but we have 5 relievers that are likely being looked at by contending teams.

 

Thornburg is probably the guy I would least like to trade although I am not exactly sure why. Jeffress being 1 strike away from a lifetime ban probably hurts his value although it certain appears that those demons are behind him

 

Torres has modest value in the market. Boyer has minimal value. Torres is perfectly suited as 6th inning guy and a big plus is how well he's pitched lately in fairly high leverage situations. It's quite possible that Torres will be dealt this week either in a bigger deal or alone. He should bring back a prospect with some upside that Brewer scouts like but not in anyone's top 20. Boyer is the type that teams pick up later in August usually for cash considerations or minimal return as a guy who'll soak up some innings in lopsided games.

[dacrew101]

Someone help me here please .... use Jeffress v Chapman and show me what the probable value of Chapman for the rest of this season is in comparison to the value of Jeffress through the end of the 2019 season.

 

By Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Chapman is worth .5 WAR the rest of this season, Jeffress worth 1.1 WAR through 2019.

 

I really don't think it's a relevant question though. Teams that make deadline deals are trying to win this year. Jeffress' value past this year won't mean a lot to the team trading for him, IMO. It's almost strictly about what he can do over the remaining games this year.

 

Not true at all, control is very important. Teams can try to win now and perhaps trade him for 75% of the haul or whatever later, or keep him and for many years of competing.. And Jeffress is a very good player, not quite chapman but he'd be a very good addition to a playoff team. There is only one Chapman.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Someone help me here please .... use Jeffress v Chapman and show me what the probable value of Chapman for the rest of this season is in comparison to the value of Jeffress through the end of the 2019 season.

 

By Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Chapman is worth .5 WAR the rest of this season, Jeffress worth 1.1 WAR through 2019.

 

I really don't think it's a relevant question though. Teams that make deadline deals are trying to win this year. Jeffress' value past this year won't mean a lot to the team trading for him, IMO. It's almost strictly about what he can do over the remaining games this year.

 

This is the dynamic that we won't really have an answer to until Smith/Jeffress is traded. Yes, Jeffress would seem to have more value over 3.5 years than half a year of Chapman. That's not really debatable. But this is the time of year that teams are making moves motivated more by the season at hand and would seem to put more emphais on guys with proven track records as opposed to future control. And they tend to make more emotional decisions. While we may salivate at what Chapman just returned, I just don't know if a team would offer anything comparable for Jeffress. I do think the current market could yield much more than in recent memory, but I also don't want to get my hopes up.

[And That]

Jeffress' value past this year won't mean a lot to the team trading for him

Isn't that the exact reason Lucroy needs to be traded now, instead of later?

 

It's true that most teams buying at this point are buying for this year, but future value is definitely worth something.

[monty57]

I could now see a Top 100-type guy coming back for Jeffress/Smith/Thornburg. I was indifferent to trading these guys, but if we could land a potential impact player, then let the bidding begin.

 

As to Torres, since we wouldn't get anything meaningful in return, I'd probably keep him and make him the next closer/set-up guy (depending on how many of Jeffress, Smith, Thornburg are traded). He may fall on his face, but if he can put up decent numbers in "high-leverage" situations, he could really raise his value. Boyer's a FA after the season, so get whatever you can for him.

[Boomer5]

I'd think 3.5 years of control mean JJ would need to go for a Chapman package.

[statman0007]

If I'm the Brewers and I get strong offers for Jeffress, Smith, and Thornburg I'd trade all 3. I feel like a lot of relievers just need opportunity. I trust Stearns to find bargain FA's looking to pitch in high leverage situations to boost their future contract potential. Internal candidates like Knebel, Torres, Blazek could improve their value and be tradeable in the future as well.

[TURBO]

Chapman also has the "name" which makes fans happy. Fan bases love getting the name players, and Chapman fits that bill.

[JosephC]

It might actually make more sense to hold onto Jeffress for another year. The trading team would have one less year of control...but Jeffress value might be even higher if the Brewers could sell the fact that Jeffress has been a closer for 1.5 season instead of just 0.5 season. If he's still pitching well (and that's the big gamble from the Brewer's end), the closer experience outweighs the of years of control IMO. In a pennant race, I really doubt a team would worry too much about having 3.5 years of control versus 2.5 years. Having three times the amount of experience as a closer could really push up his value.

[MrTPlush]

I doubt another year of saves is going to make up for an entire year of control lost. Pretty clear what Jeffress is and what he can do as a closer.

[nate82]

I doubt another year of saves is going to make up for an entire year of control lost. Pretty clear what Jeffress is and what he can do as a closer.

 

[sarcasm]But the teams trading for Jeffress won't care about that since they are only going to care about now!!!![/sarcasm]

[DHonks]

I doubt another year of saves is going to make up for an entire year of control lost. Pretty clear what Jeffress is and what he can do as a closer.

 

If he builds a longer track-record and improves his K-rate, his demand could go significantly higher as an elite closer.

[adambr2]

It could. Or if he fizzles out like Turnbow or Axford did here, he could be worth nothing.

 

I'd sell any bullpen pieces with the way the market is now. Really, the only ones that aren't going anywhere for sure are Knebel and Barnes, unless part of a throw-in on a blockbuster deal.

 

If you can get a top 100 guy for Jeffress, I'd pull the trigger.

[DHonks]

Adam, I wasn't trying to advocate holding him. I was trying to refute the argument that dealing him now will most definitely earn a bigger return than later. I'm willing to listen on JJ.

[MrTPlush]

I doubt another year of saves is going to make up for an entire year of control lost. Pretty clear what Jeffress is and what he can do as a closer.

 

If he builds a longer track-record and improves his K-rate, his demand could go significantly higher as an elite closer.

 

Longer track record, yes...K-rate, yes...however he said a longer track record as a closer, so not really that much.

[dacrew101]

The Rangers have a major need for pitching, both starting and relieving.. Wonder what they would give up for a Guerra / Jeffress package

[JosephC]

The Rangers have a major need for pitching, both starting and relieving.. Wonder what they would give up for a Guerra / Jeffress package

 

I'd guess something like RHP-Ariel Jurado and 1B-Ronald Guzman. I just don't think Jeffress value is all that great. I'd love to be wrong about that.