The Investment Thread

[igor67]

My general guess is that AI products will end up being about as revolutionary as the internet itself, but will happen more on a time scale like smart phone adoption. Which almost certainly leads to a telecom level crash that becomes equally memorable because as owbc said it's the only thing propping up the economy at the moment. I do think it leads to a net decrease in jobs in some sectors, which might well be OK in the long run given an otherwise shrinking population. Which businesses survive the over investment though is anyone's guess. Also what generic white collar work looks like in 10 years is also probably anyone's guess as that does seem like the area where the efficiencies may have the biggest impact.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

The economy is pretty blah outside of the AI investment.

This is not true.  The precious metals sector is doing good.  The energy sector is also seeing growth and will continue to see growth with the increase in data centers across the US.  Precious metals will continue to grow with EV’s and advanced computing (AI, data centers and quantum computing).  

There is still some room to grow in the EV sector but that is shrinking.  

Another industry that will be seeing growth over the next 10-15 years is quantum computing.  Fintech is also seeing a lot of growth.  Pharmaceutical and healthcare in general are seeing growth as well.

Overall the economy is not in that bad of shape for now.  Ask this again towards the end of 2026 and it will all have to deal with China and Taiwan.  2027 is the mandate to be ready for taking Taiwan either by force or otherwise.  A major war would seriously hurt the world economy even if the majority of Europe doesn’t take part in this.

Major players in this possible war would be China, North Korea, South Korea, Australia, Japan and the United States.  Other smaller countries like the Philippines and Vietnam would also be impacted.  Hard to see Europe helping here with their hands tied with Russia and Ukraine.  Best case scenario China just continues to saber rattle and nothing comes of this.  Worst case and there is a serious regional war.  I don’t see China winning this but economically this will be a huge blow.  

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

The economy is pretty blah outside of the AI investment. What worries me is that there is a lot of shady stuff going on based on valuations that are assuming this stuff is going to eventually be making money. I think the insular deals between tech and AI startups will be ugly when they unravel. 

One example I saw was OpenAI’s recent foray into erotica. Does that sound like something a startup with a half-trillion valuation should be doing if the revenue projections were all rosy? 
 

I think AI tools will be great and have a lot of practical applications but it’s more of the financial dealings during this crazy boom that worry me as well as the complete lack of anyone in government pumping the breaks or preparing us for what’s to come. 

I'm certainly not touting the strength of the Economy as a whole.

I think I went through all the troubling things happening. From hard data from defaults from Car loans at a ~15 year high or Credit Card defaults, employment numbers, CPI... 3 is the new 2 I guess. 

 

But I don't think the spending on AI is going anywhere. I think we're just scratching the surface of it. There's always companies that get overvalued before they go public. Private valuations don't mean much to me. But you just listen to what the largest companies in the world are saying, they're all spending more on GPUs than anticipated.

We're also seeing more and more sovereign AI investments. South Korea just committed to a massive new investment. The UK, EU, Japan, India... 

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

This is not true.  The precious metals sector is doing good.  The energy sector is also seeing growth and will continue to see growth with the increase in data centers across the US.  Precious metals will continue to grow with EV’s and advanced computing (AI, data centers and quantum computing).  

There is still some room to grow in the EV sector but that is shrinking.  

Another industry that will be seeing growth over the next 10-15 years is quantum computing.  Fintech is also seeing a lot of growth.  Pharmaceutical and healthcare in general are seeing growth as well.

Overall the economy is not in that bad of shape for now.  Ask this again towards the end of 2026 and it will all have to deal with China and Taiwan.  2027 is the mandate to be ready for taking Taiwan either by force or otherwise.  A major war would seriously hurt the world economy even if the majority of Europe doesn’t take part in this.

Major players in this possible war would be China, North Korea, South Korea, Australia, Japan and the United States.  Other smaller countries like the Philippines and Vietnam would also be impacted.  Hard to see Europe helping here with their hands tied with Russia and Ukraine.  Best case scenario China just continues to saber rattle and nothing comes of this.  Worst case and there is a serious regional war.  I don’t see China winning this but economically this will be a huge blow.  

A War with China over Taiwan would... absolutely devastate BOTH economies, the Global economy... the Chinese Navy. The US Navy would be in trouble. 

 

I'm not sure if you're being a little facetious when you say it'll "hurt" the economy, but it'd make any previous market crash look tame IF that happened. 

I don't think China's ready to just obliterate it's own economy and military to change the status quo. They've been saber rattling for a long time... but taking Taiwan would be absolutely devastating. China's not stupid. They'll keep doing their war games... I don't think they're going to take Taiwan for TSMC when TSMC has already said... they'll just destroy their fabs rather than risk losing them to China. 

 

 

Also, I think when people are saying the "Economy is doing good/bad," it's important we're on the same page.

The Economy sucks for people looking for a job or people trying to buy homes or... really the things that have a practical impact on most people's lives.

The Stock Market is doing great.

I haven't done a great job of articulating the two, but the market is great... the rest... not so much. 

[LouisEly]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The precious metals sector is doing good.  The energy sector is also seeing growth and will continue to see growth with the increase in data centers across the US.  Precious metals will continue to grow with EV’s and advanced computing (AI, data centers and quantum computing).  

There is still some room to grow in the EV sector but that is shrinking.  

Another industry that will be seeing growth over the next 10-15 years is quantum computing.  Fintech is also seeing a lot of growth.  Pharmaceutical and healthcare in general are seeing growth as well.

The first paragraph is about investing, not the economy.  While AI will increase energy demand, that will result in an increased cost to consumers not by choice, resulting in less discretionary spending capacity.  Consumers generally don't choose to spend more on energy - they're forced to..

Healthcare will always grow as a population ages.  But outside of GLP-1 medications, there has been relatively little innovation in the pharma sector, particularly as good drugs lose their patent exclusivity.  Manufacturers will always work deals with payers to get their brand drugs covered (Abbvie can teach a master class on that).  But there is a big squeeze going on here as rural health care centers are closing due to mounting costs and doctor shortages.  Smaller health care systems are going under - one recently happened in the Eau Claire area.

Like @BrewerFan said, the rest of the economy is not doing well right now.

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

The US Navy would be in trouble. 

No the US Navy would not.  The Chinese navy is mostly made up of coast guard like ships.  Check the tonnage of the US Navy versus the Chinese Navy.  They are not even close.  US Navy is about 3.5 million tonnage versus China at about 2 million tonnage.  The 2 million includes the Chinese coast guard.

9 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't think China's ready to just obliterate it's own economy and military to change the status quo.

Don’t underestimate what a dictator will or won’t do.  Case in point Putin basically destroying Russia’s economy and is continuing to do so with no end in sight.

 

13 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm not sure if you're being a little facetious when you say it'll "hurt" the economy, but it'd make any previous market crash look tame IF that happened. 

I said it will seriously hurt.  I don’t need to go into the exact details but an economic crash would be under the seriously hurt category. 

[owbc]

In other news, just closed on a refi of our investment property...got it down to a 15 year at 4.99% after previously being in the low 7s. So I'm pretty happy about that. Rates are a tad higher today than when we locked the rate in mid-September. 

I've heard some folks say that Airbnb bookings are down but I personally haven't seen it enough to notice yet. 

[igor67]

If I had any significant discretionary investing money I would definitely look at quantum computing and fusion companies. Quantum potentially opens up being able to effectively solve NP-hard problems, which is another way of thinking about why AI is limited. And getting truly cheap electricity also removes a lot of economic constraints. It's far enough out that predicting winners and losers is impossible but I seem them as technologies close enough and both have truly revolutionary potential.

[nate82]

22 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

While AI will increase energy demand, that will result in an increased cost to consumers not by choice, resulting in less discretionary spending capacity.  Consumers generally don't choose to spend more on energy - they're forced to..

Energy sector will have to expand as the current grid is not efficient enough for EV’s and data centers.  Which means more investment into nuclear and other energy plants.  This then leads to more construction.  There are already billions being spent on creating the data centers throughout the US.  This is already creating jobs in the construction industry.

The economy is not as bad as it is being made out to be.  Job wise yeah it sucks but economically it is good.

The economy is in a strong spot right now.  There will always be issues in the job market depending on whatever industry is seeing issues.  As a whole the economy is looking strong.

The mortgage rate isn’t really the problem right now as it is sitting just over 6% for a 30-year.  The problem is the price of the houses depending on the market.  Some markets are seeing drops but not enough 

[BrewerFan]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

No the US Navy would not.  The Chinese navy is mostly made up of coast guard like ships.  Check the tonnage of the US Navy versus the Chinese Navy.  They are not even close.  US Navy is about 3.5 million tonnage versus China at about 2 million tonnage.  The 2 million includes the Chinese coast guard.

Yes... it would.

The US Navy would be decimated by a War with China fought off the coast of China. I didn't say they'd lose... but they sure as hell don't "win" much there. 

It's about who is losing more. 

U.S.-based war-game analyses show... their air craft carries in particular would be vulnerable... again, OFF THE COAST of China. This would leave the US Navy a shell of what is currently is. And it's not the US Navy vs the Chinese Navy of the tonnage of the ships, it's the US Navy taking strikes from Mainland China. We're not fighting China's Navy in equal footing here. Chinese Supersonic missiles being lobbed at our aircraft carriers would be... devastating. It'd be devastating for China as well, but to say it wouldn't be for the US Navy??? How? 

That doesn't mean the US would lose the War, it means it may win it at an ENORMOUSLY high cost that would leave our armed forces... in VERY rough shape. 

9 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Don’t underestimate what a dictator will or won’t do.  Case in point Putin basically destroying Russia’s economy and is continuing to do so with no end in sight.

Xi isn't Putin. China's not Russia. China is disciplined and they have a long term plan.

This "if they attack Taiwan," has been going on forever. They're not going into Taiwan...

 

BUT, again, if they do, it'd be absolutely devastating to all sides, the US Markets. It wouldn't seriously hurt the economy, it would destroy it. 

If we agree that AI is propping up our Economy... then... what happens when you lose VIRTUALLY all of your access to the very thing that's propping up said economy?

 

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I said it will seriously hurt.  I don’t need to go into the exact details but an economic crash would be under the seriously hurt category. 

Ok... well, I guess it just seemed a bit cavalier. 

Stubbing my toe is seriously painful... I'd say having to get my leg amputated on a table like they did in the Civil War... while also being "seriously painful" is on a whole other level. 

[LouisEly]

18 minutes ago, owbc said:

I've heard some folks say that Airbnb bookings are down but I personally haven't seen it enough to notice yet. 

That is very regional/local.  They're way down in Nashville - my friend had two properties on AirBnB/VRBO and this year he has converted both of them to long-term rentals.  More communities are starting to ban short-term rentals, so the demand is shifting to other destinations.

Won't really be able to get a feel for that until January when people start booking summer vacation rentals.

[owbc]

15 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

That is very regional/local.  They're way down in Nashville - my friend had two properties on AirBnB/VRBO and this year he has converted both of them to long-term rentals.  More communities are starting to ban short-term rentals, so the demand is shifting to other destinations.

Won't really be able to get a feel for that until January when people start booking summer vacation rentals.

I’m only allowed to have one STR which is pretty smart policy and keeps the market from over-saturating. Seattle is one of the few places on the west coast that has actually built a fair bit of housing in the past 10 years, so long term renting isn’t very lucrative. 

[BrewerFan]

NVDA with YET ANOTHER just... incredible earnings propping up this market!

57B, 1.30 EPS, 74.2% margins

Guidance...65 BILLION(whisper was 64B).

AMD, AVGO, TSM all moving along with NVDA despite all the obvious... macro headwinds. 

 

[homer]

On 11/19/2025 at 5:02 PM, BrewerFan said:

NVDA with YET ANOTHER just... incredible earnings propping up this market!

57B, 1.30 EPS, 74.2% margins

Guidance...65 BILLION(whisper was 64B).

AMD, AVGO, TSM all moving along with NVDA despite all the obvious... macro headwinds. 

 

And now NVDA is down below $175

[owbc]

42 minutes ago, homer said:

And now NVDA is down below $175

Investor confidence is finally weakening. 
 

I’m more entertained by the MSTR/Bitcoin death spiral right now. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Investor confidence is finally weakening. 
 

I’m more entertained by the MSTR/Bitcoin death spiral right now. 

In the broader markets, I think it's more profit taking on the heels of the govmint shutdown wrapping up than diminished investor confidence in the recent 1-2 weeks.  Holiday season is typically a good time for a year end bull run - even if fundamentals/data point the other direction - after all, brokers gotta make their year end bonus, right??

 

I have no idea what Bitcoin is doing...

[nate82]

Cryptocurrency is going to be bigger soon.  The largest bank in the US and possibly the world just launched its own cryptocurrency department.  This thing is going to get bigger from what I have been told.  Right now it is just for institutional transactions but this is probably going to be the new everyday transaction for PoS systems.

[owbc]

Bitcoin is most likely getting hit by higher electricity prices as some miners are liquidating and transitioning to AI data center services. A natural consequence of halving combined with the AI explosion. 

[homer]

I think the only way Bitcoin truly goes mainstream is if they figure out how to eliminate money laundering from the system. Good luck with that.

[nate82]

42 minutes ago, homer said:

I think the only way Bitcoin truly goes mainstream is if they figure out how to eliminate money laundering from the system. Good luck with that.

Have they figured out how to do this with paper money?

[BrewerFan]

On 11/21/2025 at 9:41 AM, homer said:

And now NVDA is down below $175

Yeah, but I'll take NVDA at 175 with those type of numbers over NVDA at 210 with terrible numbers. Those earnings should certainly have quelled the "AI Bubble" nonsense. 

They're waiting to see if there's a cut and NVDA is getting to the point where it's actually cheap again. 

I wasn't selling this week or year, so watching them just crush it, I'll take a smaller number on the banner for the short term knowing it'll go up in the long term. 

[BrewerFan]

On 11/21/2025 at 11:43 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

In the broader markets, I think it's more profit taking on the heels of the govmint shutdown wrapping up than diminished investor confidence in the recent 1-2 weeks.  Holiday season is typically a good time for a year end bull run - even if fundamentals/data point the other direction - after all, brokers gotta make their year end bonus, right??

 

I have no idea what Bitcoin is doing...

That, the jobs and CPI data not being released... which probably means it's pretty bad.

That selloff on Thursday started with the Fed Minutes being released and the chances of a cut going from 97 to 22 and then the New York Fed President came back and sounded much more dovish and it's back to 75%. But... until they actually cut, I'm not sure things will get much better. 

 

22 hours ago, owbc said:

Bitcoin is most likely getting hit by higher electricity prices as some miners are liquidating and transitioning to AI data center services. A natural consequence of halving combined with the AI explosion. 

 

Some optimism in the smaller Nuclear projects starting right now and the goal to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 with pretty significant benchmarks by 2035... that should help.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

Let's GO, AVGO!!!!!

Broadcom and NVidia are attached at the hip, so it seems.

[homer]

Seems people are starting to wonder if the numbers the big tech companies are reporting are real or fool's gold. Michael Burry has been on this for a while, which is why he's short NVDA. WSJ had an article yesterday on the funky accounting META is using to keep these data centers off its books. 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-ai-data-center-finances-d3a6b464?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfrW_eSEf4HASzKFczHrbTSWibx01KxumVB5-8bxzKibqaTjfAie8hs5kGWA1g%3D&gaa_ts=6925b50f&gaa_sig=zoVy7OODU4PzBBMcIAOiLO5myHnGupeMd3t_RIAqdEpkUD2hrkFVVSusnjjlVzvy2hT1rWKyvGZoCIY3FbSpbg%3D%3D

I think the chickens will come home to roost at some point but when it will happen is anyone's guess. Could be six months, could be six years.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That, the jobs and CPI data not being released... which probably means it's pretty bad.

 

No, data just didn't get collected because of the shutdown.  I guess some people may choose to think it's because it had to be bad, but that's just predetermined for some.  Would rather have no data to look at than cooked/manipulated data anyways - which up until recently had been the norm.