The Investment Thread

[wallus]

Once the details of this "deal" comes out, it could fall apart. From what I have seen, it is much much worse than what Obama had negotiated. Then things get interesting....

[owbc]

35 minutes ago, wallus said:

Once the details of this "deal" comes out, it could fall apart. From what I have seen, it is much much worse than what Obama had negotiated. Then things get interesting....

They won, so we're paying them to get oil flowing in time for the midterms. 

[homer]

It's essentially a 60 day cease fire from what I've read.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Its impossible to have a legit deal with a failed terrorist regime whose regional influence has just been severely diminished.  All of it from both sides is bluster, but what has changed is the primary countries in Asia and Europe who rely on steady oil flows through Hormuz are feeling the pinch and need energy supply stability - so diplomatic pressure is ramping up on Iran.  More importantly, this wont really end until China is willing to buy oil at global market prices instead of the discounted crude from Iran. I expect that to take awhile since Venezuela is no longer a backup option for them at cheap prices and Russia can't give them everything they need.

 

Meanwhile, markets at all time highs with oil prices steadily dropping, and gas prices (which will lag significantly behind oil and probably spike up another time or two this summer) back below $4/gallon.

 

 

[owbc]

The markets are completely detached from reality at this point. 

Nobody knows what the trigger will be to pop the bubble. Clearly the war/oil disruption wasn’t enough. 

[nate82]

34 minutes ago, owbc said:

The markets are completely detached from reality at this point. 

Nobody knows what the trigger will be to pop the bubble. Clearly the war/oil disruption wasn’t enough. 

Is there a bubble to pop or has it already popped?  I think the bubble popped earlier in the year.

Im not sure the oil disruption is as huge as it would have been for example in the 70’s.  It is still a shock monitored by the Federal Reserve but I’m not sure it is like it was even in the early 2000’s.  I believe the Federal Reserve has agreed to this outlook recently.  

[homer]

22 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Is there a bubble to pop or has it already popped?  I think the bubble popped earlier in the year.

Im not sure the oil disruption is as huge as it would have been for example in the 70’s.  It is still a shock monitored by the Federal Reserve but I’m not sure it is like it was even in the early 2000’s.  I believe the Federal Reserve has agreed to this outlook recently.  

The oil industry has been raising alarms about supply for a few weeks.

From June 4th:  https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/04/oil-price-spike-white-house-hormuz-00949435

There was another article today in the WSJ but it's paywalled. Here is all I could cut and paste:

Quote

For more than 15 weeks, the U.S. and other countries around the world have had to dip into oil tanks, salt caverns and strategic reserves to make up for the millions of barrels of oil trapped behind the strait. Now, the stocks are nearing critical levels, and energy executives say without an influx of more oil, prices will have to surge to stop the run on supplies.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/oil-executives-are-sounding-the-alarm-over-dwindling-stockpiles-ad0f6928,

[LouisEly]

And during this time of surging prices, the US has become the world's top exporter of oil:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/once-an-arab-oil-embargo-victim-us-becomes-worlds-top-oil-exporter-2026-06-11/

At the risk of straying too far into the political spectrum, we're creeping up on midterm elections...

[nate82]

31 minutes ago, homer said:

The oil industry has been raising alarms about supply for a few weeks.

From June 4th:  https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/04/oil-price-spike-white-house-hormuz-00949435

There was another article today in the WSJ but it's paywalled. Here is all I could cut and paste:

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/oil-executives-are-sounding-the-alarm-over-dwindling-stockpiles-ad0f6928,

You misunderstand what I am talking about.  The shock is an oil crisis.  The impact on the economy doesn’t seem to be as severe of a shock as it was in the past.

[owbc]

16 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You misunderstand what I am talking about.  The shock is an oil crisis.  The impact on the economy doesn’t seem to be as severe of a shock as it was in the past.

Right, it doesn’t matter because the top 10% of earners that are driving the economy don’t care about a $1 or $2 increase in gas prices.