2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Eye Black]

NL wild card race heading into Saturday, August 10th (image via MLB Twitter account).

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers are currently 1.5 games back from both the wildcard and division. The Cardinals are currently tied, but rank ahead of the Cubs with 1 less win but 1 less loss. I would put the cutoff for teams out of the race at the Reds being 7.5 back. They need a win 10 of 12 stretch in a hurry just to get back to contention. If that's the threshold, there's still 7 teams vying for 2 wildcard spots...with the Giants being furthest out at 4.5 back.

 

It's weird that in the AL, it's really 3 teams only involved in the wildcard. Maybe the Red Sox make a run...but they are 7.5 back and there are so many cupcake matchups. Winning 10 of 12 might only move them from 7.5 back to 5.5 back.

[KeithStone53151]

Tex: win 2/3 - check

Min: win 1/2 - check

@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)

@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)

Ari: win 2/3

Stl: win 2/3

@Chc: win 1/3

Hou: win 1/2

Chc: win 2/4

@Mia: win 3/4

@Stl: win 2/3

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

For the Nationals, Scherzer may be back on an abbreviated pitch count for one of the weekend games. We also get Corbin on Friday, but we will miss Strasburg as he pitched yesterday. Figure on Fedde or Sanchez for the other game. On the bright side, we'll for sure get 2 RH starters this weekend.

[Zad Fnark]

I don't know if Strasburg is an issue. Brewers have roughed him up before.

[markedman5]

Phillies just walked off the Cubs

[Zad Fnark]

Grand Slam.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Well, one back of two teams for the division. Lots of games against both. 10-6 against Cubs and Cards should give them a good shot.

[markedman5]

[shanedog19]

The Cubs bullpen is really really bad. No way a team with a bullpen that leaky wins a world series.

[Ennder]

The Cubs bullpen is really really bad. No way a team with a bullpen that leaky wins a world series.

 

Red Sox bullpen was awful going into the playoffs last year and they won it. There is no true path to winning it all, just get hot at the right time.

[Brewcrewin07]

A stat I heard today that really shocked me...the Cubs haven't won a single road series yet this year. I know they have been bad on the road this year..but wow, to not have one road series win yet?? Fear not, they now go to Pittsburgh..that should certainly help them gain their first road series win this year. Maybe Pittsburgh will help the Crew even more this weekend. Go Pirates!

[MDCrew]

Nice to see both the Cubs and Cards lose. Still no starter announced for the Nats Saturday or Sunday. I’ll be there tomorrow and Saturday, but have a wedding on Sunday. Hope we can take 2 of 3.

[sveumrules]

Not sure where you heard that, but the Cubs swept MIA 3-0 April 15-17, beat ARI 2-1 April 26-28, swept SEA 2-0 April 30-May 1 & beat WAS 2-1 May 17-19, so they have won four road series this year.

 

Maybe they meant haven't won a road series in the last three months?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think it's that they haven't had a winning road trip? That could be it.

[sveumrules]

That was my first thought as well but the sweep of MIA was just a three game trip with no other games & the 4-1 vs ARI/SEA was a five game trip with no other games.

 

Maybe its haven't won a road trip of six or more games all year?

[Brewcrewin07]

Huh, I apologize for the incorrect info...It was a tweet I saw yesterday morning, and maybe I read it wrong. Either way, last night was freaking glorious! But nothing like them getting to play the Pirates to cure what ails them right now

[Brew crew 92]

I’m not counting out the reds from making the playoffs quite yet. They might run out of games before they get there, but if the season was 180 games, imo, they’d not only get there, but I believe would win the central. The reds are the best team in the central. Lineup’s the equal or better than most, defense is good, bullpen underrated, and their rotation the best in the central by far, maybe the NL.

 

Dick Williams, hands down, executive of the year. Hiring DJ, the trade with the dodgers, signing Jose Iglesias, getting Gray and now Bauer not just for their run this year but to really go for it next year as well. It Also should be very interesting as to their payroll next year since Bauer should be making ~ 20 million and their payroll is already higher than ours by 4 million, and their revenue is 15-20 mil. LESS than ours. Interesting isn’t it?

[MrTPlush]

That Derek Holland pitch was probably the most glorious thing since the postseason last year...just a real beautiful pitch.

 

I am really sick of people constantly talking about how the Cubs are better though. Heard it all last year and it gets preached even more to just assume we can't win the division. I don't really care what teams look like on paper. It is mid-August and we are a measly game back. Clearly they aren't that much better. The problem is there is no team in the central that is going to dominate and pull away...it is just incredibly unlikely. The only team that really has shown the ability to get on a big roll is the Cardinals and both times they did so it was followed up by big slumps.

 

Honestly I am expecting two teams to slightly pull away eventually when one team kinda flops at the end.

[jjfanec]

That Derek Holland pitch was probably the most glorious thing since the postseason last year...just a real beautiful pitch.

 

I am really sick of people constantly talking about how the Cubs are better though. Heard it all last year and it gets preached even more to just assume we can't win the division. I don't really care what teams look like on paper. It is mid-August and we are a measly game back. Clearly they aren't that much better. The problem is there is no team in the central that is going to dominate and pull away...it is just incredibly unlikely. The only team that really has shown the ability to get on a big roll is the Cardinals and both times they did so it was followed up by big slumps.

 

Honestly I am expecting two teams to slightly pull away eventually when one team kinda flops at the end.

 

And if I remember correctly the Cards rolls have often come against very soft schedules.

 

It is impressive and honestly a little shocking the Brewers are where they are. Imagine the record we would have picked for the Brewers knowing the the following

- Chacin has a 5.79 ERA and will likely miss a month plus on the IL. Also, Burnes and Peralta both flame out as starters (and in Burnes case as a reliever). The Brewers are getting -3.2 WAR from 3/5ths of our initial starting rotation

- Brandon Woodruff, our ace, has missed a month with injury

- Gio and Zach have both missed time

- Knebel gets hurt and misses the season

- Jeffress falls apart. WAR goes from 3.4 to -0.1

- Hader falls apart after all-star break

- We currently have Adrian Houser and Jordan Lyles as our 3 and 4 starters and no 5th starter

- Travis Shaw implodes as a hitter

- Lorenzo Cain cant hit anymore

- Jesus Aguilar becomes at best a singles hitter and ultimately gets traded

- SS stays an offensive blackhole

- Gandal loses his power for a long stretch

 

All of those things and more and theis team is still sitting with a very real chance to win the division

[MrTPlush]

Ha, you forgot Peralta/Burnes absolutely imploding and going from useful to useless. Or the fact that Stearns made zero real moves to improve at the deadline.

 

If I was told all that I would probably assume we ended the season with like 75 wins max.

[jjfanec]

Ha, you forgot Peralta/Burnes absolutely imploding and going from useful to useless. Or the fact that Stearns made zero real moves to improve at the deadline.

 

If I was told all that I would probably assume we ended the season with like 75 wins max.

 

I did forget the zero moves but had Peralta and Burnes in the line with Chacin. 3/5ths of the rotation has been just brutal

[KeithStone53151]

Every team has injuries, the Cubs have actually had some rotational injuries for a change. And right now 4 or 5 of their best bullpen options are on the DL. It's not like their bullpen will all of a sudden be good when those guys get healthy(they'll get 3 back in the next week), but it certainly is a factor. Imagine if they had Kimbrel in there instead of Strop, then Wick, then Holland? Hard to imagine him allowing 4 runs often.

 

That said, I tend to agree with Tplush. It's very likely going to come down to the final games. One team could fade a little with all the head to head, but it might be more likely that with 7 games left...those 3 teams will be within 2 games of each other. The biggest thing all the head to head does...is likely takes us out of the wildcard picture.

[sveumrules]

Dick Williams, hands down, executive of the year.

 

I like what Williams has done to make his club more viable, but these kind of awards generally go to whoever is seen as overachieving expectations the most. Reds were expected to finish at best 4th in the Central & likely still do so.

 

Assuming the Twins hold on for a postseason spot (& especially if they win the division) gotta imagine that Levine gets the hardware.

[Brew crew 92]

Dick Williams, hands down, executive of the year.

 

I like what Williams has done to make his club more viable, but these kind of awards generally go to whoever is seen as overachieving expectations the most. Reds were expected to finish at best 4th in the Central & likely still do so.

 

Assuming the Twins hold on for a postseason spot (& especially if they win the division) gotta imagine that Levine gets the hardware.

 

Yes, forgot it wasn’t a league award. Have to agree with your choice, unless, the Reds go 31-11 and win the central.

[shanedog19]

The Cubs have $220 million dollar payroll this year. I would love nothing more than to see them miss the playoffs completely, in what could be Maddon's last year there.