Cryptocurrency

[GAME05]

Sold my stuff last week just for the intention of re-allocating into smaller nonsense tokens. As always, now it's a wonder of just when, if there's a good dip coming or not.

edit: meh, jumped back in mostly. Whatever gets predicted about btc it looks like people are selling that to get back into alts, and I don't like missing out on the fun/pain.

[PlayerHader]

How you guys approaching the ETFs? I’m thinking of putting a significant portion of my IRA (behind my pension and my wife’s 401(k) on the list of priorities for our retirement planning), into FBTC after my rollover is completed soon here. I don’t trust myself with self-custody of coins, but I want in on the upside.

[GAME05]

Most important thing is having an exit strategy, especially because if/when things really get heated your eyes turn green from everyone telling you just how much higher it's going to be. If you're thinking of long-term holding that's one thing, but if the thought is playing this specific cycle, have it in mind just how you're going to start taking money out and stick with it. 

I still have the futures ETF in my IRA and I'll likely follow the common approach that once things start to heat up, to take 10% or so off every month. If we're well before that vague "18 months past the halving" cycle top history, I'll likely use a good portion of that withdrawn money to buy dips, but if we're really heated than probably not buy back at all.

[owbc]

On 1/17/2024 at 9:12 AM, PlayerHader said:

How you guys approaching the ETFs? I’m thinking of putting a significant portion of my IRA (behind my pension and my wife’s 401(k) on the list of priorities for our retirement planning), into FBTC after my rollover is completed soon here. I don’t trust myself with self-custody of coins, but I want in on the upside.

I chickened out after like a week and went back to SP500 index funds. Tech companies are clearly going to crush their Q1 and Q2 earnings like they did last year and it seems like crypto investors are diversifying away from BTC right now. 

[LouisEly]

8 hours ago, owbc said:

I chickened out after like a week and went back to SP500 index funds. Tech companies are clearly going to crush their Q1 and Q2 earnings like they did last year and it seems like crypto investors are diversifying away from BTC right now. 

That, and FBTC is down 16% since issuance.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

That, and FBTC is down 16% since issuance.

I hope it keeps staying down until I get approval from work to be able to buy! One of the few times this is actually going to work out for me!

Usually I can buy ETF's without having to get approval first but this one is not on the pre approved list. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Bitcoin Now Wall Street's Hottest Asset

I've been telling my greater family for years: Bitcoin is your entire portfolio's insurance. 5-10% as coverage as a Base.

Now more than 3 years later, we see Wall Street Portfolio managers insuring their portfolios at 1% BTC. When that price action inevitably rises, and their BTC portfolio value jumps to 5% of their Portfolio value, we are going to see sell offa at Wall Street Portfolio scale. I have to rework charting tools I created and have been using for the past five years. The landscape has changed immeasurably.

Very exciting time for us Crypto investors!

[GAME05]

Had been a good bit frustrated that I pretty well stayed even through January and February. Probably not helped that a couple I nearly pulled the trigger on like Crown and GTAI went nuts. But I'm also just being impatient and there's always ones you miss.

We've got our pre- or post-halving dip coming up but I'm not quite ready to start taking profits for that just yet. Really mindful of doing that more consistently this go-around.

Kinda looking for another one or two to buy. I'm not really committed to the API3 I have. And I had a good amount of MintLayer for a while, but their social engagement seems about dead and that's enough for me to want out. Picked up some BCUT not long ago as an AI token at what seemed a decent dip on it especially since everything else had already gone off, so I guess we'll see about that.

Otherwise excited for GPU.net, IO.net and Ready Games to have their token releases probably early Q2. Same for the individual games BloodLoop and Gunzilla Games.

[Joseph Zarr]

Bitcoin reaches $62K overnight and it's not even news. 😅 This leg of the greater Supercycle could get ridiculous. We are quite obviously going to crest $100k at some point in the next 1,5 years. The how and when, as per usual, is the unknown. Of course, we will continue to hear the falsified concerns from the White House and the SEC under this current regime (the latest is back to the fake concerns for the power grid - which have been debunked so many times over the years now it nearly hurts). None of it matters. Anyhow, the Big Daddy is hot. Looking at some of my higher timeframe EMA's and I see during our last run we went 273 days before coming back to touch the Weekly and Monthly's. This could play out for many more months before a bigger sell off. And it certainly seems like that Support test will again wind up in the $39-45k range as the averages move with price action. I obviously don't know but that's my hunch. Being a LT hodler of BTC I never sell. I have set weekly buys at a much smaller quantity. Then I scrape aside larger quantities to buy targeted dips. 

(This is not financial advice. This is simply what I do and have been doing for quite some time)

 

[thebruce44]

Haven't even looked at my portfolio for months, so fun to start checking again last week. I'm all in on ETH and will stay that way through this cycle.

[Joseph Zarr]

Here's an interesting graphic tidbit:

 

 

In a distant cellar I can hear Peter Schiff moaning and wailing...

[Joseph Zarr]

Naturally, being the beginning cannon shot of a Super Cycle it is very wise to practice caution in this range. We are seeing classic 10-12 to 25-30% gains in the Alts. This is a classic Crypto scenario. If we look to the RSI we see an 88 on the index. This seems to be playing out, and who knows how this will actually go, as I initially suspected: sizzle hot and go for that ATH - likely surpassing it as desperate FOMO buyers add liquidity to the space and then the Sell Orders from the Portfolios etc. rush in and there is a mass liquidation event. We've seen it time and again - those 25-40% sell offs. We never know the timing. But, it is certainly looming. I am still (naive or not, yet to be determined) looking at that $35-45 k window for more LT entries.

For reference:

[GAME05]

Couldn't agree more and even the eye test shows it. At the next halving we've always been 40% off the previous ATH, but I think it was yesterday we made it to within 16%. So who knows if that means the upcoming dip is big and knocks us back into reality or hopefully it's a harbinger of an absolute monster bull season to come.

Though I'm still debating taking profits here, not so much for gas fees but slippage can make a trade pretty darn expensive. Makes me think I should have at least one asset strictly on Coinbase so I can count selling that in its entirety as taking profits on all the others but only pay that small fee.

[thebruce44]

1 hour ago, GAME05 said:

Couldn't agree more and even the eye test shows it. At the next halving we've always been 40% off the previous ATH, but I think it was yesterday we made it to within 16%. So who knows if that means the upcoming dip is big and knocks us back into reality or hopefully it's a harbinger of an absolute monster bull season to come.

Though I'm still debating taking profits here, not so much for gas fees but slippage can make a trade pretty darn expensive. Makes me think I should have at least one asset strictly on Coinbase so I can count selling that in its entirety as taking profits on all the others but only pay that small fee.

Of course, the only thing I know is that I know nothing, but the last bull run did seem to end prematurely for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps this "pre-run" is just a correction? 

 

[GAME05]

Soooooooo soooooooo close! And about eight months earlier than normal, too.

[Joseph Zarr]

So, food for thought, in my own charts what I 'see' is a path to $78k-ish for Bitcoin in this current leg. The bounce off the ATH gave the Alts room to breathe; regroup; and run up. What I see in BTC's chart is a FOMO push to aforementioned $78k-ish and then a rip back to those all important higher timeframe EMA's and MA's to consolidate for the next push. SO, to that end, if I were to check my personal trading crystal ball I personally foresee a retrace (ie I will buy back in and repurchase what I sell off this mini-top - for me that is anything I bought between $30-45K) and some noise down into the $45-50k range as it stands today. That would make all too much sense given historicity and proven supports. I've learned enough in my trading to know this may not be how it goes. I certainly don't know the timing. And, I never sell back at the price points I refuse to let go of. I am still hodling all Bitcoin I've purchased $3,800 - $30,000. 

As to Alts, I primarily hodl ATOM and HBar. ATOM I had charted to $15.35 - to -$16.75 ish as reasonable short term target areas. They certainly are on the way to the -1.27 with essentially $800 Million entering the Cosmos Hub since yesterday. Anywho, gotta love the crypto Bulls😅

[GAME05]

Boy if that was the pre-halving dip, that sure wasn't much.

Still a little miffed that my holdings haven't gone up at all since the start of the year, but trying to resist the urge to shift everything around into something else. Palm AI and Autonolas haven't done anything, but I also don't dislike either to really want to jump out.

[GAME05]

Record amount of BTC shorts right now. Microstrategy heavily shorted, too--which are both pretty great. A person could do well short-term holding BTC just going opposite the short and long positions.

Last cycle BTC did 730% from right here to the top of the cycle. Should today copy, that would get us just a touch away from $500k. Granted that doesn't account for the law of diminished returns, but it still puts a smile on your face either way:)

[GAME05]

I paid attention because of the Nvidia earnings yesterday and dumped whatever AI coins I had which didn't really move. Consolidated into ones which did. That and I guess I hadn't realized I had one token with a FDMC:MC of 10:1 and got rid of that, too. In my book a scummy thing so many projects are doing now and I don't feel like getting dumped on by VCs selling their shares throughout the run.

I gotta figure gaming will start jumping pretty soon, but it's been pretty nuts that up until now that whole sector really hasn't done much of anything yet.

Nice like bump for Fantom recently. A good project which has really been flying under the radar for a while now.

 

[GAME05]

Five months of boring unless you're in alts. Think I've eaten about an 80% loss from January except in my BTC.

But we hit 60k way way way early, and despite this all, provided every cycle rhymes ETFs excluded we'd probably have done a slow climb up to 60 right about now. What I consider great about that is we can largely dismiss the idea which was floating around that we'd have our final top a year sooner than expected. Probably better overall that we're back on track for a top late Fall of next year.

Crossing my fingers with these alts falling so hard that there's a solid 20x in a lot of them from today.

edit: Spoke too soon. Please somebody make it stop!

[GAME05]

Well that was fun. Felt like the first rain after a long drought. Hopefully people were able to load up throughout September. Looks like BTC finally broke out of that lower-highs trend. Maybe also from folks getting in early due to everyone else excited about historical October. The six-month boredom seems like it allowed the historical cycle price action to catch up and we're set up for the typical run of a new high in 1Q/2Q, a 25-40% crash in summer and then one huge run in Q3 2025 before the bear market starts. Though still reasonable speculation now that 1Q/2Q 2025 may well be the cycle height and that we won't go as deep into 2025 as the standard cycle would dictate. Obviously I don't know but I'll be DCAing heavier and heavier as time passes. Actually getting out and not eating the bear market is what destroys most people. 

And options trading was just approved for BTC, which I think is really going to tamper its volatility going forward. Not sure if for this cycle but certainly for the next one. Some people happy about that but I don't see that as good at all. That could potentially make this the last big cycle we'll have since upward and downward pressures could well temper the madness going forward.

Was up big with a 2x BTC ETF but the fees slowly destroyed me so I moved into a regular one. Nothing like buying BTC at 38k and selling at a 4% loss. Was lucky to catch the Karrat run and also lucky to have timed my sell at a good time. Will buy back in once it settles back down. Also looking forward to In The Game, the first crypto game to push for mainstream XBox/Playstation adoption. Pretty sure that was the studio which fired Dr. Disrespect live on air.

[GAME05]

Almost feels like we just skipped right over the 70s and went right from the 60s to the 80s.

Maybe an announcement in the coming months of the US adding BTC as a reserve asset. I've heard it would be something like buying 1 million with a 540-BTC buy per day, which is roughly 100 more than miners can produce. Maybe a small rate cut coming soon. And China just announced the printing of $1.4 trillion to throw into their economy. 

[Joseph Zarr]

I was hinting at this Bull Breakout many many moons ago. Well, we are very much obviously in the Bull cycle. Here's the thing:

It's very very early. This thing is only just getting started. Compare where we currently are to the last cycle's break of BTC at $20K...

Anywho, all this is to say the Crypto Bulls are unlike many other markets:

Here are our Ledger Live One Month 'Losers' - 3 Stable Coins hovering in their 1% scheduled windows:

Here our our One Month 'Gainers':

Needless to say, I am quite happy with my HBar and XRP slow accumulations over the past four years. Best of luck to all of you playing in this realm. It could be a very very good run if we play our cards right.

[GAME05]

"The first M2 Money Supply bull market" could indeed be interesting. Considering the macro environment right now maybe we don't really see the diminishing returns this time around, though I suspect this cycle will be the last particularly volatile one we'll get to see.

Seems there's just as much reason to believe in a short-cycle top (April/May) this time around as there is a usual top in November/December. Already planning on a heavy out come March-ish, and I guess buying back in for summer (whether we're in a real rebound or a dead cat bounce) will be tough to tell, but maybe I'll base it on the price of BTC at the moment. That is, if we're hovering around 130 I'll decide there's more to the run, but if we're approaching 200 in Spring I'll just call it a day and not take more risk. But overall I'm still not really sure on a practical exit yet.

Like everyone else I particularly like AI this year. My HashAI and 0x0 bags have been great so far. AI Agents are getting all the talk now, but with no price history to go on I just don't know what constitutes overbought and underbought and so I'm just staying away from those.

I'm not sure what to make of gaming this time around, or at least I'm not as high on it as I was last cycle. Though I've got a big bag of Karrat right now. Karrat and Off the Grid seem to be the only games people talk about (Illuvium seems to be in permanent beta) and instead people are hyping the launchpads. But if there's no hype for individual games, why buy the launchpads in the fist place? Or maybe I'm just upset that Karrat hasn't had a run yet.

Karrat has also soured me on any project which isn't a fair launch. Seems like these are very much noticed this time around and buyers are staying away, so from now on I will, too.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

On 12/7/2024 at 9:52 AM, GAME05 said:

"The first M2 Money Supply bull market" could indeed be interesting. Considering the macro environment right now maybe we don't really see the diminishing returns this time around, though I suspect this cycle will be the last particularly volatile one we'll get to see.

Seems there's just as much reason to believe in a short-cycle top (April/May) this time around as there is a usual top in November/December. Already planning on a heavy out come March-ish, and I guess buying back in for summer (whether we're in a real rebound or a dead cat bounce) will be tough to tell, but maybe I'll base it on the price of BTC at the moment. That is, if we're hovering around 130 I'll decide there's more to the run, but if we're approaching 200 in Spring I'll just call it a day and not take more risk. But overall I'm still not really sure on a practical exit yet.

 

Realllllly good thinking, amigo.

I have a likely BTC High this cycle at $174-200K. We shall see. I have $100 K becoming the 'new floor', so to speak. We both know there is wild n wooly action around these new zones anytime these new zones are being carved out of the greater psyche. Last time, we had a plain as day Ascending Wedge pattern on the higher time frames with BTC so the exit was being messaged to us. I wish I could say I nailed it. I was successful in some ways and ate my proverbial you know what in other ways. Regardless, in retrospect, It was a massive tell that fit the TA probabilities to a Capital 'T'. 

My current approach is I am cost-averaging into BTC in all these dips below $100k. Then, once She really breaks $100k I'm going to sit back and watch and see how the market reacts. This current price action is still very very much a byulllllish accumulation pattern. Essentially a glorified flag/pole. 

Beyond that, I got my original ATOM stake to the place I wanted it many many months ago and have simply been flipping my weekly yileds into things like Hedera, XRP, and Solana. 

Going to be a fascinating cycle, tho. Heck, BTC was sitting at the doorstep of $100K for weeks and the Google Search data showed it wasn't even really registering on the minds of the greater public. Some of my earliest cues of exiting are when my family and long-time friends start asking me about crypto out of the blue. 😅