Game Thread (6/05/2022): Padres (Clevinger) at Brewers (Lauer) - 1:10 PM CDT

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

Nice strawman,  I really shouldn't be surprised really.  

This discussion is about Yelich and the advanced stats saying he is hitting the ball well when it looks far different to those watching the games so I have no idea where the strawman talk comes from. If you think that Yelich is playing well thats fine but all I see is a struggling guy who rarely hits the ball in the air.

[NBBrewFan]

3 minutes ago, RoCoBrewfan said:

This data is now actually getting used to the point where it's becoming abused.  

Yep.  When Bill James developed OXS it was so clearly accurate because you could actually get to a teams runs scored using OBP x SLG x PA. There was criticism because it didn't account for a lot of other activities, but for hitters it IS the only metric with somewhere like 98% accuracy.  Now with all the attempts to capture every activity there's a lot of suspect metrics that have not shown any level of accuracy like OXS, but they have become Gospel. 

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm a firm believer in analytics and data.  I absolutely believe that performance and results are two wholly separate things.  On any given day, week, or even month, a guy can go out there and sting the ball all over, and hit into loud, hard outs, or dribble the ball weakly through the hole for a soft single.

But this whole "Yelich's exit velocity....." 

He hasn't gotten any *actual* results since 2019 now, which is going on 3 years ago now.  You don't win awards, games, or trophies for "hardest hit double play grounder".  At some point, the results the guy is producing have to matter.  Thinking "Ooooook NOW he's going to break out of this 2 1/2 season long funk!" isn't going to work when he's hitting in the 3-spot.

Sure, he's hitting the ball hard.  On the ground. Right at the 2nd baseman.  Over and over.  He's not getting any lift, and he's just slapping it into the shift.  The result isn't helping the team at all, and ignoring THAT .... is silly. IMO of course. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, RoCoBrewfan said:

I'm a firm believer in analytics and data.  I absolutely believe that performance and results are two wholly separate things.  On any given day, week, or even month, a guy can go out there and sting the ball all over, and hit into loud, hard outs, or dribble the ball weakly through the hole for a soft single.

But this whole "Yelich's exit velocity....." 

He hasn't gotten any *actual* results since 2019 now, which is going on 3 years ago now.  You don't win awards, games, or trophies for "hardest hit double play grounder".  At some point, the results the guy is producing have to matter.  Thinking "Ooooook NOW he's going to break out of this 2 1/2 season long funk!" isn't going to work when he's hitting in the 3-spot.

Sure, he's hitting the ball hard.  On the ground. Right at the 2nd baseman.  Over and over.  He's not getting any lift, and he's just slapping it into the shift.  The result isn't helping the team at all, and ignoring THAT .... is silly. IMO of course. 

Excellent post.  The issue to me is that exit velocity, etc. don't measure a successful baseball outcome or ANY baseball outcome so they will never have direct application by themselves.

[edfunderburk]

40 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

This discussion is about Yelich and the advanced stats saying he is hitting the ball well when it looks far different to those watching the games so I have no idea where the strawman talk comes from. If you think that Yelich is playing well thats fine but all I see is a struggling guy who rarely hits the ball in the air.

Yelich needs to be placed on the “mental” IL … he could use a week on the beach or away to get his mind right … he’s an awesome person - great character - witty personality … & a formerly great baseball player, but currently - he’s a detriment to his team - especially hitting 3rd

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

You just pointed out that they had Freeman who is far better than anyone we have and we really have no star caliber players. Yes we can get hot at the right time but I just don't see it with this cast of characters.

Yeah, but Freeman wasn't really the reason they won the World Series, though he did play well in the postseason. Pederson, Rosario (NLCS MVP), and Soler (World Series MVP) all getting hot and hitting way above their regular season averages was. I could easily see guys like Renfroe, Adames, and Tellez going on that kind of run. And we don't need to "overpower" teams to win in the postseason. We just need to score enough runs for our elite pitching to be able to make a difference. 

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

This discussion is about Yelich and the advanced stats saying he is hitting the ball well when it looks far different to those watching the games so I have no idea where the strawman talk comes from. If you think that Yelich is playing well thats fine but all I see is a struggling guy who rarely hits the ball in the air.

Every post you make is basically a strawman.  When you are proven wrong you just move the goalposts to somewhere else.  The ball being hit hard matches up with what I have seen from Yelich.  The angle at which he is hitting the ball is also matching up with what he is doing.  

The better argument to make which I doubt you will even get is that the stats are not being used correctly.  For example yes Yelich is hitting the ball really hard but how he is hitting the ball is not providing the results you would expect from the hard hit balls.  The launch angle I believe for Yelich I haven't looked at them in awhile but it is somewhere around 10 degrees which is to shallow even for Yelich.  

If you said instead Yelich is hitting the ball hard but his launch angle is to low for it to be much of an impact that would be a better argument.  Instead your argument is Yelich bad advanced stats bad incoherent rambling then moving the goalposts to something else strawman this strawman that.  That is your arguments in a nutshell.

[NBBrewFan]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, but Freeman wasn't really the reason they won the World Series, though he did play well in the postseason. Pederson, Rosario (NLCS MVP), and Soler (World Series MVP) all getting hot and hitting way above their regular season averages was. I could easily see guys like Renfroe, Adames, and Tellez going on that kind of run. And we don't need to "overpower" teams to win in the postseason. We just need to score enough runs for our elite pitching to be able to make a difference. 

Well when 1 Brewer goes on a hot streak during the postseason, then maybe we can dream that 3 will. Until then we are going to have a lot more of the same, score a lot in late innings against bad relievers or bad starters then when we face elite pitching staffs in the playoffs they'll crumble and strikeout, pop out or ground out weakly.

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Well when 1 Brewer goes on a hot streak during the postseason, then maybe we can dream that 3 will. Until then we are going to have a lot more of the same, score a lot in late innings against bad relievers or bad starters then when we face elite pitching staffs in the playoffs they'll crumble and strikeout, pop out or ground out weakly.

Would you not have considered it a dream for Soler, Pederson, and Rosario to carry a team to a World Series? I bet you would've. It's all about getting to the playoffs, and then getting/staying hot once there. With the amount of times the Brewers have been able to get to the playoffs recently, you figure that they are due to get hot and go on a run one of these times. And these same hitters have been hot before. Just look at mid-June to mid-September last year....The reason we lost to the Braves is because literally everyone subsequently cooled off simultaneously. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Would you not have considered it a dream for Soler, Pederson, and Rosario to carry a team to a World Series? I bet you would've. It's all about getting to the playoffs, and then getting/staying hot once there. With the amount of times the Brewers have been able to get to the playoffs recently, you figure that they are due to get hot and go on a run one of these times. And these same hitters have been hot before. Just look at mid-June to mid-September last year....

I saw Erik Kratz hit .625 in a division series. I guess that illustrates it about as well as anything.

[umphrey]

I can't believe the Yelich numbers are on the decline for the 3rd straight year. 

[NBBrewFan]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Would you not have considered it a dream for Soler, Pederson, and Rosario to carry a team to a World Series? I bet you would've. It's all about getting to the playoffs, and then getting/staying hot once there. With the amount of times the Brewers have been able to get to the playoffs recently, you figure that they are due to get hot and go on a run one of these times. And these same hitters have been hot before. Just look at mid-June to mid-September last year....The reason we lost to the Braves is because literally everyone subsequently cooled off. 

Heard it before.  Don't believe it's gonna work.  The team is built out of no superstars a few above average hitters and a roster littered with average to utter crap hitters.  Who consistently struggle against ANY LH pitcher and build up average RS numbers by beating up on crappy pitchers. Sure, at any time even LoCain can hit a ball hard and maybe get a home run, but the numbers are skewed against this dysfunctional offense that makes that "dream" of getting hot at the right time less likely to happen than teams that actually have good hitters. And this team is no different to the all the Oakland A's teams that Beene put together with high OBP and years of playoff failure.  You can find a lot of players that can help over a 162 game schedule to get you to the playoffs, but come playoffs and you are now only playing elite team then those players fail, fail, fail.

[BruisedCrew]

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

With the amount of times the Brewers have been able to get to the playoffs recently, you figure that they are due to get hot and go on a run one of these times. 

I would disagree that past playoff failures make future success more likely because that team becomes due to get hot.

Yes, an “inferior” team can get hot and win the World Series, but I would rather take my chances with a stronger team that only has to win 3 playoff series instead of 4 to win the championship. 
 

I suppose the Twins are due to win a playoff game one of these years given all of their chances.

[edfunderburk]

9 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I can't believe the Yelich numbers are on the decline for the 3rd straight year. 

Good news … only 7 years remaining on his team friendly contract!

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Heard it before.  Don't believe it's gonna work.  The team is built out of no superstars a few above average hitters and a roster littered with average to utter crap hitters.  Who consistently struggle against ANY LH pitcher and build up average RS numbers by beating up on crappy pitchers. Sure, at any time even LoCain can hit a ball hard and maybe get a home run, but the numbers are skewed against this dysfunctional offense that makes that "dream" of getting hot at the right time less likely to happen than teams that actually have good hitters. And this team is no different to the all the Oakland A's teams that Beene put together with high OBP and years of playoff failure.  You can find a lot of players that can help over a 162 game schedule to get you to the playoffs, but come playoffs and you are now only playing elite team then those players fail, fail, fail.

I think the last few games may be tainting your opinion of our hitters. The only one I can say with absolute certainty is a "crap" hitter at this point is Cain, who seems headed for a DFA within the next few weeks. And guys like Hiura are only seeing playing time because of all our injuries. This is the same team that got off to a franchise record start less than a week ago, taking a series from these same Padres on the road in the process. We're very injured and very tired right now. We have to be careful not to read too much into this recent downturn. 

And, once again, how do you explain Pederson, Rosario, and Soler all hitting above their regular season averages and carrying a team to a World Series title? I can assure you that if guys on our team like Rowdy, Renfroe, and Adames all get hot like that we will be going very far in the postseason. There's a reason why any team winning a world series is so improbable. 

 

[titletownking]

2 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Good news … only 7 years remaining on his team friendly contract!

Wonder if he doesn’t go on an IL stint once the team is healthy. I’m sure he can find some type of strain or ache. A week off might be good for him. He’s not good. At anything. I guess he stills runs “those base pads beautifully” once a week or so. 

[Brewcrew82]

All that being said, I totally agree that we should pursue upgrades for this offense. Guys like Bell, Benintendi, etc. would be great additions. And I'm willing to trade anyone in our farm system, save for Chourio. I just wouldn't completely empty the cupboard a la 2011. 

[titletownking]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

All that being said, I totally agree that we should pursue upgrades for this offense. Guys like Bell, Benintendi, etc. would be great additions. And I'm willing to trade anyone in our farm system, save for Chourio. I just wouldn't completely empty the cupboard a la 2011. 

This is where I’m at. Normally I lean towards hoarding every prospect but these are the years we should be pushing the chips in. One of Frelick or Mitchell should be leveraged with our depth at outfield in the minors. Wiemer and Chourios would be my untouchables but other than that I would part with almost anyone. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, titletownking said:

This is where I’m at. Normally I lean towards hoarding every prospect but these are the years we should be pushing the chips in. One of Frelick or Mitchell should be leveraged with our depth at outfield in the minors. Wiemer and Chourios would be my untouchables but other than that I would part with almost anyone. 

Yeah, even Wiemer I could be convinced to part with for the right piece, meaning a controllable star-level player. Just not for a rental like Bell or Benintendi. 

Chourio is a hard “no way no how”. Particularly when he’s drawing comparisons to Vlad Jr. Acuna, Soto, etc….

[Jim French Stepstool]

A comment was made about this team being built of "no superstars". Let's not forget, in the summer of '19, if asked to project that team three years into the future the brain trust might've put two guys.....Yelich & Hiura.....into that category w/o subjecting themselves to a rubber room. We all know how that turned out & it's tough to overcome when BOTH fail to meet expectations. It led to two in-season acquisitions, both very astute trades IMO. Still, this offense probably won't be at the level some want to see it at unless we spend more prospect capitol than I'm willing to give up. The Benintendis & Bells of the world----it's just really difficult to surmise what they would cost at this time. Something almost certainly will happen since there's an overflow of talent in the OF throughout the system.

[yourout]

Taylor in a bit of a June slump.

2 for 20

I see Yelich is 5 for his last 41.

[Pugger]

3 hours ago, umphrey said:

I can't believe the Yelich numbers are on the decline for the 3rd straight year. 

It is sadly shocking that a once feared power hitter has never been the same since he broke his kneecap.  How long, if ever, will it take for CC to take him out of the 3 hole and place him further down the lineup?

[Jim French Stepstool]

46 minutes ago, Pugger said:

It is sadly shocking that a once feared power hitter has never been the same since he broke his kneecap.  How long, if ever, will it take for CC to take him out of the 3 hole and place him further down the lineup?

You watch him run the bases (when he actually reaches base) and look at some of the balls he runs down in left field, and you know the guy's healthy. I sometimes wonder if there's something going on where, after shattering the kneecap on a foul ball, it's affected the aggressiveness just enough where the swing will never be the same. Strange as it sounds, a part of his psyche may think it could happen again. It's a totally bizarre theory but if Steve Blass & Steve Sax can forget how to throw a ball straight, who knows?

If CC moves him I hope it's either to the leadoff spot or ninth. Give his legs a chance to make a difference in games. Sixth or seventh, I could see him snuffing out some rallies.

[Pugger]

14 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

You watch him run the bases (when he actually reaches base) and look at some of the balls he runs down in left field, and you know the guy's healthy. I sometimes wonder if there's something going on where, after shattering the kneecap on a foul ball, it's affected the aggressiveness just enough where the swing will never be the same. Strange as it sounds, a part of his psyche may think it could happen again. It's a totally bizarre theory but if Steve Blass & Steve Sax can forget how to throw a ball straight, who knows?

If CC moves him I hope it's either to the leadoff spot or ninth. Give his legs a chance to make a difference in games. Sixth or seventh, I could see him snuffing out some rallies.

You may be right where his issue is between the ears.  Hitting 9th or leading off is not a bad idea.  CC should try something.

[mtrebs]

I’ve been supportive of Yelich batting first since his struggles started. He was still getting on base at a decent rate and he definitely can run the bases well, so lead off would make sense to get him in for someone to hopefully get a hit (which is easier said than done).