Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Austin Tatious said:

No.  His career average is .255 in a sizable sample size. My point is that is a lot better than he’s hitting this year and we can expect him to getting back to .250.  He is not the problem here but he also has to come down in the lineup.  

 

.288/.355/.504 .859 OPS road OPS for his career. So I believe a lot of his poor performance prior to this year was just trouble hitting at the Trop.

As for this year, I think part of it has been unlucky this year.  He's got a .262 BABIP this year, .331 last year, .388 two years ago...that's a big difference. 

Some of it is just his walk rate is down. But he's still hitting the ball hard, good exit velocity. wOBA of .323. That's a massive difference from .292.

I think it's pretty reasonable to expect a ~.260/.335/.465

.800 OPS, plus defender at Short....

1 hour ago, Austin Tatious said:

I honestly don’t think he’s a good enough player to price himself out of Milwaukee.  I think he will get a sizable deal but something we can swing.  At some point Mark A will have to spend money (wisely) and I think he will on the right targets.  I feel like Adames fits the bill.

Eh...I'm not sure. If they signed Adames right now, I'd expect a 5/70 with maybe a couple options at 16M or so.

If he has a bounce back year next year, that number could sky rocket. If he were to put up a season like he did after the trade, he's a 25M a year SS. 

If we sign him and he doesn't rebound, then it's a terrible signing and we have two "albatross" contracts. It's not hard to see how difficult it'd be to make these calls as a small market team with a limited payroll. That, and we've got Turang and Black coming up, both who look like they're a pretty good keystone combo and I don't know if you should extend him or not. I probably would if that 5/70+option years is realistic, but even that may be underselling what a SS who's put up WAR of 3.9, 1.9 in 2020, 4.2 and 3 WAR in a down year so far this year is really worth. 

You're not paying Woodruff(most likely) or Burnes(even less likely). I wouldn't pay Williams. Not paying Renfroe as he'd be 33 the first year of an extension as he's locked up next year. I do think the payroll will be going up to the ~150 range in the next couple years...but I think everyone's got more money to spend and we'll still lag just as far(if not further) behind the top teams. 

Signing guys like Frelick or Chourio in a couple years is always the best way to go. Even those deals come with risk, but it's minimal in comparison to a Yelich type contract. 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

No.  His career average is .255 in a sizable sample size. My point is that is a lot better than he’s hitting this year and we can expect him to getting back to .250.  He is not the problem here but he also has to come down in the lineup.  

HaHa! I posted a fact and you said No. 

[Austin Tatious]

12 hours ago, Robocaller said:

HaHa! I posted a fact and you said No. 

His career average is .255.  

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, Austin Tatious said:

His career average is .255.  

So you're already backpedaling from the .250.  Now tell me what it was before this season.

[Austin Tatious]

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

So you're already backpedaling from the .250.  Now tell me what it was before this season.

I’m not backpedaling.  If you laughably are distinguishing .255 from ..250 you understand math less than I thought.  I always knew he was at .255.  I said .250 as a rounded value to make a larger point.  You do you, though.  Keep sticking with our offense is fine because our averages are good in your eyes.  That’s about as comical of a thread that’s been in here in years.  

[Robocaller]

2 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

I’m not backpedaling.  If you laughably are distinguishing .255 from ..250 you understand math less than I thought.  I always knew he was at .255.  I said .250 as a rounded value to make a larger point.  You do you, though.  Keep sticking with our offense is fine because our averages are good in your eyes.  That’s about as comical of a thread that’s been in here in years.  

I teach college math.  Obviously the offense has gotten worse since this thread started.

[Austin Tatious]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

I teach college math.  Obviously the offense has gotten worse since this thread started.

I respect professors and respect math professors even more.  I majored in science and took a lot of math as well.  I frankly don’t have time to pore over baseball stats as much as I’d like, but I certainly understand it.  Box scores and stats were one of my early draws to the game.  

[jay87shot]

Interesting thought, Rowdy Tellez is having a extremely similar year to Chris Carter from 2016.

Rowdy 0.8 WAR .229 ba .319 obp .790 ops 120 ops+ -6 rdrs

Carter 0.9 WAR .222 ba .321 obp .821 ops 113 ops+  -5 rdrs

Carter did have twice the k's but will be around 10 more HRs. We let Carter walk instead of pay 3+ million. Now I get the HR first mindset is much different than 2016 and with the DH a Rowdy/Carter player is more valueable. Just food for thought.

[Playing Catch]

I don't mean to presume, but are you trying to state that Rowdy isn't worth re-signing for next season based on the decisions made in past years with a similar player?

One reason they didn't re-sign Carter was that the team decided to dedicate salary resources to signing Eric Thames instead. As mentioned by someone in the other thread, these decisions don't happen in a vacuum. In some other universe, the Brewers may well have re-signed Carter, believing him to be a good use of 3+ million based on the rest of the roster.

I don't know that I have strong feelings about Rowdy, the on-field baseball player. But I do value Rowdy's on-field baseball persona. Mild-mannered grinder that maximizes his talent? I dunno. I appreciate those guys. I always wonder about companies (especially entertainment companies) valuing certain personality traits (leadership, marketability, etc.), and how or if they can quantify such value.

[UpandIn]

16 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I don't mean to presume, but are you trying to state that Rowdy isn't worth re-signing for next season based on the decisions made in past years with a similar player?

One reason they didn't re-sign Carter was that the team decided to dedicate salary resources to signing Eric Thames instead. As mentioned by someone in the other thread, these decisions don't happen in a vacuum. In some other universe, the Brewers may well have re-signed Carter, believing him to be a good use of 3+ million based on the rest of the roster.

I don't know that I have strong feelings about Rowdy, the on-field baseball player. But I do value Rowdy's on-field baseball persona. Mild-mannered grinder that maximizes his talent? I dunno. I appreciate those guys. I always wonder about companies (especially entertainment companies) valuing certain personality traits (leadership, marketability, etc.), and how or if they can quantify such value.

It's also significantly different in that the Brewers were in a rebuild at that time, AND there was no DH at that time.

I also believe going into arbitration, Carter, who'd just led the league in HRs and hit 37 two years prior, would have gotten a disproportionate raise in arbitration. 

Also, just an aside, but Carter had a .822 OPS and an OPS+ of 113 while Tellez is .794 and has a 121 OPS+. 

Just another sign  how much hitting is down across the league...and how this team can be above average offensively and still look so...hapless at times. 

Finally, I agree with you on Rowdy's personality. The Brewers seem to play better when they have guys who bring energy anda little attitude to the game. The Cards play well when they clutch their pearls, we play well when our players play loose.

Rowdy seems like a no-brainer. 

[jay87shot]

Not trying to say we shouldn't re-sign Rowdy, just interesting. It does make a huge point on how the league has changed in 5-ish years. Tellez is probably our most valuable offensive player and he wouldn't have had much value in 2016, also a bit on how dumb it was to let Carter go (even though he only played 1 bad year longer).

[jay87shot]

I am all for a soft re-build this year he is my scenerio.

Trade Mitchell and a prospect to Royals for MJ Melendez

Trade Woody and Urias to Mets for Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Jose Butto, and a PTBNL

Trade Lauer to Rangers for Brock Burke and Cole Winn

Trade Renfroe to Cleveland for Jaison Chourio (Jackson younger brother) and PTBNL

Sign Mike Clevenger 1/8 team option year 2

sign a couple utilty players minor league deals, sign Rosenthal (may as well)

C)Melendez/Caratini 1B)Rowdy/Keston/Vientos 2B)Turang SS)Adames 3B)Baty/Vientos LF)Yeli CF)Frelich/Ruiz RF)Ruiz/Weimer  DH)Keston/Yeli/Rowdy/Vientos

I am sure you would start 2 of Weimer, Ruiz, Veintos, Baty in the minors.

Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Clevinger, Houser. with Small, Gasser, Butto, Winn in AAA ready

Williams, Bush, Burke, Box, Counsins, Gott, Milner, Suter?, Rosenthal, Gustave, Strelecki, Perdomo, Topa, etc.

There would be high potential and growing pains in the lineup but enough upside to have a bright future and then we would have enough arms to be competitive. If the team plays well we would have money in a budget and a much stronger farm system to go get a big name. If we stink trade some of Burnes, Rowdy, Adames, Clevinger, Yeli???, and pen arms for more young guys and have competitive talent in 2024.

[monty57]

On 9/5/2022 at 9:02 PM, jay87shot said:

Interesting thought, Rowdy Tellez is having a extremely similar year to Chris Carter from 2016.

Rowdy 0.8 WAR .229 ba .319 obp .790 ops 120 ops+ -6 rdrs

Carter 0.9 WAR .222 ba .321 obp .821 ops 113 ops+  -5 rdrs

Carter did have twice the k's but will be around 10 more HRs. We let Carter walk instead of pay 3+ million. Now I get the HR first mindset is much different than 2016 and with the DH a Rowdy/Carter player is more valueable. Just food for thought.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/brewers-to-non-tender-chris-carter.html

They let him go because he was projected to receive over $8M in arby. He ended up signing with the Yankees for $3M, but that was after the Brewers non-tendered him, so he was a free agent, not an arby guy.

But your point still stands. Tellez is having an okay year, but for a first baseman those offensive numbers will only play while he's inexpensive. He's got a wRC+ of 113, which is great for some positions, but not 1B. He's compiled 0.7 Fangraphs WAR, which isn't all that great.

He is in his first year of arby at $1.9M. Being an everyday 1B, he's going to see an arby raise, so the Brewers will have a decision to make on him. I expect him to be back, but he could be used in trade. I doubt they non-tender him. Maybe after next year if they think he'll be too expensive going into his third arby season, but I think they'd be willing to pay the (my uneducated estimate) $4-5M or so he could get in arby next year.

[Matt Breen]

Is Tellez (and other left handed hitters) going to be more valuable with the shift ban in place? Lefty sluggers seem to lose a lot of hits because of the shift.

I don't watch enough games to recall if other clubs shift on Rowdy a lot. 

Just curious.

[MadThinker88]

On 9/7/2022 at 10:02 AM, jay87shot said:

I am all for a soft re-build this year he is my scenerio.

Trade Mitchell and a prospect to Royals for MJ Melendez

Trade Woody and Urias to Mets for Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Jose Butto, and a PTBNL

Trade Lauer to Rangers for Brock Burke and Cole Winn

Trade Renfroe to Cleveland for Jaison Chourio (Jackson younger brother) and PTBNL

Sign Mike Clevenger 1/8 team option year 2

sign a couple utilty players minor league deals, sign Rosenthal (may as well)

C)Melendez/Caratini 1B)Rowdy/Keston/Vientos 2B)Turang SS)Adames 3B)Baty/Vientos LF)Yeli CF)Frelich/Ruiz RF)Ruiz/Weimer  DH)Keston/Yeli/Rowdy/Vientos

I am sure you would start 2 of Weimer, Ruiz, Veintos, Baty in the minors.

Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Clevinger, Houser. with Small, Gasser, Butto, Winn in AAA ready

Williams, Bush, Burke, Box, Counsins, Gott, Milner, Suter?, Rosenthal, Gustave, Strelecki, Perdomo, Topa, etc.

There would be high potential and growing pains in the lineup but enough upside to have a bright future and then we would have enough arms to be competitive. If the team plays well we would have money in a budget and a much stronger farm system to go get a big name. If we stink trade some of Burnes, Rowdy, Adames, Clevinger, Yeli???, and pen arms for more young guys and have competitive talent in 2024.

Serious question: Why would CLE make that deal????  

CLE is already facing a roster crunch after this season in getting ready for the next Rule 5 draft and your suggesting a trade at some point this off-season that forces CLE to spend extra money and open another 40 man roster spot..

CLE is more likely to look to deal away pieces to clear the path for a few of the top level prospects to take over on the MLB club.. 

On top of that the younger Chourio is already turning heads...  I understand the desire to put the Chourio brothers in the same organization but I don't see how CLE views Hunter R as an upgrade to pay the cost..

[Sakatarama]

On 9/7/2022 at 9:02 AM, jay87shot said:

I am all for a soft re-build this year he is my scenerio.

Trade Mitchell and a prospect to Royals for MJ Melendez

Trade Woody and Urias to Mets for Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Jose Butto, and a PTBNL

Trade Lauer to Rangers for Brock Burke and Cole Winn

Trade Renfroe to Cleveland for Jaison Chourio (Jackson younger brother) and PTBNL

Sign Mike Clevenger 1/8 team option year 2

sign a couple utilty players minor league deals, sign Rosenthal (may as well)

C)Melendez/Caratini 1B)Rowdy/Keston/Vientos 2B)Turang SS)Adames 3B)Baty/Vientos LF)Yeli CF)Frelich/Ruiz RF)Ruiz/Weimer  DH)Keston/Yeli/Rowdy/Vientos

I am sure you would start 2 of Weimer, Ruiz, Veintos, Baty in the minors.

Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Clevinger, Houser. with Small, Gasser, Butto, Winn in AAA ready

Williams, Bush, Burke, Box, Counsins, Gott, Milner, Suter?, Rosenthal, Gustave, Strelecki, Perdomo, Topa, etc.

There would be high potential and growing pains in the lineup but enough upside to have a bright future and then we would have enough arms to be competitive. If the team plays well we would have money in a budget and a much stronger farm system to go get a big name. If we stink trade some of Burnes, Rowdy, Adames, Clevinger, Yeli???, and pen arms for more young guys and have competitive talent in 2024.

Further proof that many on this site are you utterly addicted to prospect gambling and video game-style GMing.

Give them enough sandlot scouting, and they'd be trading off Chourio for half a dozen lottery ticket toolsy 9 year olds.

[jay87shot]

On 9/12/2022 at 9:41 AM, Sakatarama said:

Further proof that many on this site are you utterly addicted to prospect gambling and video game-style GMing.

Give them enough sandlot scouting, and they'd be trading off Chourio for half a dozen lottery ticket toolsy 9 year olds.

I would much rather take a chance on someone with upside than waste time watching a bunch of guys who don't hit. This front office has provide it can piece together a pitching staff, so going with a lot of young upside bats makes sense to me. Melendez has a year of decent results and would be a huge C upgrade. I don't think any one is for bringing Wong back with an 8 million dollar option, Turang is an obvious replacement. Trading 2 pitchers isn't a stretch and signing a short term vet in that case makes sense. I will admit Renfroe to the Guardians is a stretch but paying him 10+ and then letting him walk isn't great when we have a couple guys who can provide as much value as him.

The bottom line is we have no middle of the order bats on this team and no money. Getting young guys is the only way I see a championship in the future.

[UpandIn]

On 9/12/2022 at 8:41 AM, Sakatarama said:

Further proof that many on this site are you utterly addicted to prospect gambling and video game-style GMing.

Give them enough sandlot scouting, and they'd be trading off Chourio for half a dozen lottery ticket toolsy 9 year olds.

Seems like all these proposals are just kinda for fun and the suggestion is to get MLB players back for prospects. 

NOT to trade our top prospects for more prospects. 

Also, I remember you throwing out a trade suggestion of something like Ruiz and Small for Bryan Reynolds. I think you had someone else in that deal, but it was...not a significant prospect(Ecerg or Lutz maybe). 

People are invested in this team and they like throwing around their ideas and proposals(as you do as well). The only way you're getting Bryan Reynolds without giving up 3 of our top 10 prospects is if you are...playing a video game. The Pirates were asking for Julio Rodriguez, they were asking for like 3 top 30 prospects. So Ruiz and Small would be laughed at. 

 

Yeah, I think he's doing a little/lot too much. I don't see why the Rangers make that trade, not sure the Mets do(though it's fair-ish) and I don't see the Brewers turning over the roster, but that's what this forum is for. Your ideas on how to move forward. 

[Sakatarama]

24 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Seems like all these proposals are just kinda for fun and the suggestion is to get MLB players back for prospects. 

NOT to trade our top prospects for more prospects. 

Also, I remember you throwing out a trade suggestion of something like Ruiz and Small for Bryan Reynolds. I think you had someone else in that deal, but it was...not a significant prospect(Ecerg or Lutz maybe). 

People are invested in this team and they like throwing around their ideas and proposals(as you do as well). The only way you're getting Bryan Reynolds without giving up 3 of our top 10 prospects is if you are...playing a video game. The Pirates were asking for Julio Rodriguez, they were asking for like 3 top 30 prospects. So Ruiz and Small would be laughed at. 

 

Yeah, I think he's doing a little/lot too much. I don't see why the Rangers make that trade, not sure the Mets do(though it's fair-ish) and I don't see the Brewers turning over the roster, but that's what this forum is for. Your ideas on how to move forward. 

Yeah, that was one (half-arsed) trade proposal. Not ten at once to completely make the team unrecognizable on a panicked, desperate attempt to hit on lightning in a bottle.

But I don't want to be fun police either, so I see the point.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Sakatarama
combining two posts

[UpandIn]

20 hours ago, Sakatarama said:

Yeah, that was one (half-arsed) trade proposal. Not ten at once to completely make the team unrecognizable on a panicked, desperate attempt to hit on lightning in a bottle.

But I don't want to be fun police either, so I see the point.

Yeah, the one I personally loved was Renfroe for Jaison Chourio. I mean...take away his brother and he's just a DSL player who had a solid year in the DSL. Yet...I still want to make that trade. Maybe not Renfroe(I actually like Renfroe and I doubt Cleveland, a team that clutches their wallet far tighter than we are is going to trade for a one year rental who'll cost ~10M next year).  But pair the Brothers up...then when they're two versions of Fernando Tatis, you sign of them to long term Ronald Acuna Jr type deals and we've got MVP brothers for a decade. It's fool proof!

 

IF we do trade Burnes and Woodruff though, we'd better get an absolute haul. Still think LAD make sense. They've got a bunch of pitchers who throw in the upper 90s, have one other plus pitch, but are questionable starting pitchers. I wouldn't mind just stacking those players together so we can replicate the Burnes/Woodruff 2018 duo except with an actual starting rotation that's...not Jhoulys Chacin or...Wade Miley who somehow turned into a good pitcher again. 

 

Most likely, this lineup will look about 90% the same next year. IF we trade a ace, we'll bring most everyone else back and then just hope whatever pitchers we get back are good and develop. 

 

If only we could have locked up Burnes during his disastrous 2019 season...then we could go all in, sign Woodruff to a much bigger deal and just keep this window open. But in Stearns last year, I think we run it back, hope we play better and if we don't, I actually trust him to sell quite a bit. Where he's terrible is trading for mediocre(or just terrible Daniel Norris type) relievers and giving up viable prospects. 

This team could come back, win 100 games and be a WS contender or come back and be 10 games out at the deadline and need to sell. I have no clue what we've got other than some valuable assets. 

[wibadgers23]

Something has to give with all of our outfielders - Yelich, Taylor, Renfroe, Mitchell, Ruiz, Wiemer and Frelick. I’d move Yelich to DH, trade Renfroe and Taylor and go with an all rookie outfield. You can’t keep these guys down in the minor leagues forever. I’d also seriously consider trading Burnes. I’m sure a team like the Rangers, Orioles or Dodgers would give us a haul for him.  2023 would probably be a bit of a down year but certainly not a full rebuild.

[jay87shot]

19 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Something has to give with all of our outfielders - Yelich, Taylor, Renfroe, Mitchell, Ruiz, Wiemer and Frelick. I’d move Yelich to DH, trade Renfroe and Taylor and go with an all rookie outfield. You can’t keep these guys down in the minor leagues forever. I’d also seriously consider trading Burnes. I’m sure a team like the Rangers, Orioles or Dodgers would give us a haul for him.  2023 would probably be a bit of a down year but certainly not a full rebuild.

For Burnes those 3 teams make the most sense, however there would be at least 10 teams that would be interested and have enough talent to potentially overpay.

On a separate note, it seems like I read an article a week about how Mike Trout should be traded. Any thoughts on a fair package, or would it just be to impossible long term to have a guy making 40 and having back issues (also outbid the big boys). I think we would have to send out out Yeli, one of the aces, and a couple pieces to beat out any other teams.  I would definitely not trade Chourio or Frelick.

Yeli, Burnes, Mitchell/Ruiz/Weimer, any pitching prospect for Trout and a reliever or 5th starter type.

I feel like that is a lot for the health issues and contract Trout has. However it is Mike Trout, he has a 5.4 WAR in 100 games and its been a down year.

[monty57]

On 9/15/2022 at 6:28 AM, UpandIn said:

IF we do trade Burnes and Woodruff though, we'd better get an absolute haul. Still think LAD make sense. They've got a bunch of pitchers who throw in the upper 90s, have one other plus pitch, but are questionable starting pitchers. I wouldn't mind just stacking those players together so we can replicate the Burnes/Woodruff 2018 duo except with an actual starting rotation that's...not Jhoulys Chacin or...Wade Miley who somehow turned into a good pitcher again. 

 

Most likely, this lineup will look about 90% the same next year. IF we trade a ace, we'll bring most everyone else back and then just hope whatever pitchers we get back are good and develop. 

To the first point, I wonder if Burnes' recent statements about wanting to sign an extension will make him more marketable to a big money team. If they're simply trading for a couple of years of Burnes, that's worth a lot, but if they're trading for a guy they can then extend for a long time, that's worth even more.

I agree that most of the team will remain in place. I think we'll trade one of Burnes/Woodruff for a huge return, leaving us with the remaining ace along with Lauer, Peralta, Ashby and some guys fighting for the 5th spot. That's still a pretty good rotation, especially if the trade upgrades us elsewhere and/or gives us a young stud to compete for that 5th spot.

I think it makes sense to let Wong walk while saving $8M. Since they've started platooning him, his numbers look better, as he's hit righties pretty well this year. I just don't know if a strong-side-of-the-platoon 2B whose defense is slipping is worth $10M. If we hold onto Wong, I think it will be because they're looking at trading either Urias or Adames. Otherwise, Urias, Turang, Adames and Brosseau should fill 2B/SS/3B.

OF will be interesting, but I think they'll hold onto Renfroe. He's been a solid contributor this year, and I think they'll be hesitant to hand the keys to two rookies from opening day. Again, it'll be interesting to see which way they'll go.

I think Caratini will still be around, but they'll sign a one-year veteran to share time with him.

So, many of the same players, but one of Burnes/Woodruff traded, Wong's option not exercised, possible trade of Renfroe, and Narvaez, Peterson, Rogers, and McCutchen leaving as free agents.

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, monty57 said:

To the first point, I wonder if Burnes' recent statements about wanting to sign an extension will make him more marketable to a big money team. If they're simply trading for a couple of years of Burnes, that's worth a lot, but if they're trading for a guy they can then extend for a long time, that's worth even more.

I agree that most of the team will remain in place. I think we'll trade one of Burnes/Woodruff for a huge return, leaving us with the remaining ace along with Lauer, Peralta, Ashby and some guys fighting for the 5th spot. That's still a pretty good rotation, especially if the trade upgrades us elsewhere and/or gives us a young stud to compete for that 5th spot.

I think it makes sense to let Wong walk while saving $8M. Since they've started platooning him, his numbers look better, as he's hit righties pretty well this year. I just don't know if a strong-side-of-the-platoon 2B whose defense is slipping is worth $10M. If we hold onto Wong, I think it will be because they're looking at trading either Urias or Adames. Otherwise, Urias, Turang, Adames and Brosseau should fill 2B/SS/3B.

OF will be interesting, but I think they'll hold onto Renfroe. He's been a solid contributor this year, and I think they'll be hesitant to hand the keys to two rookies from opening day. Again, it'll be interesting to see which way they'll go.

I think Caratini will still be around, but they'll sign a one-year veteran to share time with him.

So, many of the same players, but one of Burnes/Woodruff traded, Wong's option not exercised, possible trade of Renfroe, and Narvaez, Peterson, Rogers, and McCutchen leaving as free agents.

---Good post and again, I write too much. If you don't want to read it, I'll just summarize by saying, I agree with you. I wouldn't make any knee jerk reactions because this year didn't go as well as hoped, but I'd listen to offers and make a trade if we got a return that made it worth it.

The only reason I'd extend Wong at this point, is if you thought you could extend him and that a team would want him for ~10M a year. I think that's a pretty fine line. His defense has been one of those baffling developments this year that...just doesn't make sense. How does he go from such an elite defender to such a poor one? So many of the errors seem to be on just poor throws. With the limited shifting, he may have been worth it, but at this point? I think you try and re-sign Jace Peterson. He's been out standing defensively...minus one particularly bad inning vs the Cards, and he's just good, reliable player. I'd rather spend 12 over 2 on keeping him and then bring up Turang. He's played 3B, 2B, SS, CF. One a quick side note, I wonder if MAYBE this is the season to try and extend Willy Adames? He's had a down season with regard to BA/OBP, but a big part of that is hitting into poor luck. His BABIP last I checked was in the ~.240 range. That's down about 90 points from last year and even more from past years. His walk rate has also dipped to about 8%, but the power he brings, plus the defense?

I only suggest that because I think it's a REALLY hard sell to ask him to play 3B 2 years away from Free Agency and I think he might be our best option. Turang plays short, 2B is Urias/Peterson and maybe on occasion Hiura. The shift is going to make IF defense that much more valuable and Adames/Turang/Peterson/Rowdy is a pretty good group. You could obviously do better at 1B, but you have what you have.

OF-I'd definitely bring back Renfroe. If the rookies force the issue, great. You have depth. But I really only trust Frelick to step in and produce right out of the gate as a rookie and he brings very little power as of now. Mitchell is ready, but I think he'll take a little bit to full adjust and you can get him plenty of ABs with Yelich in LF. Ruiz...still see him as a trade candidate...and I love Wiemer, but he's too boom or bust to throw him out there next year...I think. So I agree.

 

As for Burnes...I could see one of two things happening. With SO much proven SPing talent available and the Mets having deGrom and Walker(among others) up, the Dodgers down Buehler, Kershaw, Heaney(who's been outstanding)...and I can't foresee Bauer ever pitching again(at least in LA) these teams could just go nuts. I could legitimately see deGrom getting a 3/150 type deal. I know that sounds crazy, but he's healthy and when he's healthy, he's the best I've ever seen personally...and it's hard to imagine a pitcher who has better stuff, Mets, Cohen...not hard to see him setting the market. Verlander could get a Scherzer type deal. He wants to pitch into his mid 40s and the man is back from TJ and should win a Cy Young. 

Rodon is a guy I'd be a bit Wary of, but he's been outstanding and his velo has ticked up as the season went on this year as opposed to last year. He seems like a Yankees type overpay. Maybe 4/120?

In all you've got(copied and pasted from MLB.com)

Carlos Rodón (30 years old, 10.3 WAR) -- Can opt out
Aaron Nola (30, 9.6) -- Club option-Obviously will be picked up
Jacob deGrom (35, 6.8) -- Can opt out
Adam Wainwright (41, 6.7)-He's either retiring or staying in STL
Nathan Eovaldi (33, 6.4)
Chris Bassitt (34, 6.3) -- Mutual option
Clayton Kershaw (35, 6.2)
Charlie Morton (39, 6.1) -- Club option
Tyler Anderson (33, 5.4)
Justin Verlander (40, 4.8) -- Player option
Sonny Gray (33, 4.6) -- Club option
Kyle Gibson (34, 4.5)
Sean Manaea (31, 4.2)
Corey Kluber (37, 4.0)
Martín Pérez (31, 3.9)
Chris Flexen (28, 3.6) -- Vesting option
Jameson Taillon (31, 3.5)
Wade Miley (36, 3.5)
José Quintana (33, 3.3)
Taijuan Walker(29, 3.2) -- Player option

Throw in guys like Sale, and Healey as I said(Dodgers sure nailed that one)...it's either a great off-season to trade for a pitcher who's cost controlled for two more years and who you could sign to an extension now and save some money on the FA years, or there's so much pitching available, he's got less value.

I tend to think this is the year his value is going to be at it's highest. I've suggested the Dodgers, but teams like the Rangers who really went all on in Seager and Semien, those mid market teams may not be capable of spending for a legitimate ace, but they have the prospects to trade for one and then sign him. I also think Brandon Woodruff is...SOMEHOW underrated. I guess just being in a rotation with Burnes. Detroit with their young bats, they still have a good system and play in an extremely winnable division. 

And hell, the Padres still have a LOT of really nice pitching prospects...go back to that well! And that should only be in a light shade of blue. 

 

But I'd let the market play out. If you're trading to Texas, ask for 4 prospects and it has to be headlined by Jung or Lieter(I'd actually prefer the later as I prefer a TOR type arm who's closer, but we've struggled to develop 3B).

Same with the LAD. Miller, Vargas and then Stone and Pepoit.

Do what the Pirates did with Bryan Reynolds(but maybe not QUITE as stringent as they reportedly asked for both Julio Rodgriquez but also AND Marte). 

 

Otherwise...hold onto them and I'm fine with playing it out and hoping Adames bounces back and puts up a line closer to his 2021 line with the Brewers(making him an MVP candidate), Turang and Frelick I think can produce right out of the gate and add another component to this team. Renfroe, Rowdy, Yelich...I expect them to produce similar to how they produced this year. We'd all love to see a vintage Yelich season...even if it's Miami-vintage, but solid, reliable contributors who should be more effective with the limited shift(particularly the lefties). 

 

And then just play it out. I'm not as down on this team as others are. This same team won 95 last year and could have won 100 if they needed to. 

 

The ONE thing I wouldn't do is react to the team "only" wining 85-88 games this year. I'd be proactive with one of the two aces if the trade made it worthwhile, but I wouldn't panic and substantively change how we do things. That can/could wait until next years  deadline if it's needed. 

 

Oh, one other team I'd look at...the Braves. They have a DEEP and nasty lineup and they're almost all locked up long term...they lose Morton. If you could pry Strider+a couple lower level prospects away for Burnes/Williams, I'd definitely consider that. The only reason I could see them parting with an arm like Strider is because 4 of their 5 top prospects are pitchers, they have Fried and Strider isn't quite an ace just now...and because they've struggled to find a closer and despite all evidence to the contrary, Williams decreasing Velo makes me nervous and makes me think he's on more of a late career Hoffman or KRod type trajectory. A really good reliever...not the guy who's putting up the Hader-esque line he has. It'd also give the Brewers an arm who's upside is limitless. But that's pretty far fetched. The Braves don't need to do anything. They have Riley, Albies, Olson, Harris, Acuna Jr locked up long term, Swanson is a FA but their #1 prospect is a SS who's got an ~840 OPS in roughly 150 PAs at age 21 and they even have d'Arnaud signed for another year, a catcher with an 800 OPS.

 

If there was one team I would try and model the Brewers after...it'd be ATL. Lock up the prospects early when they come up, and just keep developing the pitching. 

But if they want to keep pace with the Mets and the Dodgers, that may require a slightly out of character trade for them. I'd roll the dice and accomodate.

[Robocaller]

On 9/8/2022 at 8:58 AM, monty57 said:

He is in his first year of arby at $1.9M. Being an everyday 1B, he's going to see an arby raise, so the Brewers will have a decision to make on him. I expect him to be back, but he could be used in trade. I doubt they non-tender him. Maybe after next year if they think he'll be too expensive going into his third arby season, but I think they'd be willing to pay the (my uneducated estimate) $4-5M or so he could get in arby next year.

Unless traded in a trade that improves 1B (which will be hard to accomplish), I think it's a no-brainer to keep him. There's no one in the minors who can replace him