Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I think the team in 2022 will look a lot like the team in 2023.  The Brewers should be actively seeking relievers.  Wong will be let go making room for a Huira/Turang/Urias platoon at 2nd and 3rd base.  If 2023 starts to fall apart look for the Brewers to make everyone available for the right price.   I don't think the Brewers will be able to keep Adames, Burnes, and Woodruff in 2024 while remaing competitive.

They'll have ~29M committed to the '24 payroll with most of the rest of the team entering arbitration. I don't think the problem or the issue will being able to keep those players together and field a competitive team.  The arbitration numbers will be big, but the Brewers are capable of a ~150M dollar payroll in 2 years. Hell, they're capable of it this year as Attanasio said there literally wasn't a player they couldn't have added financially).

No, I'm not nearly as concerned with the debate about pushing the payroll up for a year while TV money increases(Again, NEVER to a point where they're remotely competitive with the big market teams, that's not even comparable, but enough to go 150-160 for a year).

The debate will be do you trade Burnes/Woodruff and recyle you're talent like the Jays/Guardians and other successful smaller market teams do, or go the way of the Royals, ride it out, increase their payroll(they spent ~130 in '15 and then ~145 in '16) and watch their FA's walk for nothing?

 

It'll be interesting to follow, but that lineup is likely to be relatively cheap, the rotation will be expensive, but it's one year. I don't think that'll be the issue. 2 years, Frelick, Turang, Mitchell, Weimer, they'll all be cheap. In two years, Chourio could even be up(not that I'm counting on it). Black could be up, Urias, Brooseau won't break the bank. 

 

But if we got that route, our "bits at the apple," will be much smaller the next couple years even with the likes of Misiokowski, Ashby, Gasser, Pertalta still in the rotation(and who knows who else).

But 2025 would be a year with a couple or 3 QO's that get turned down and aces and SS's with power who I'm thinking could be a candidate if he bounces back next year and hits for better average. But all told, it'd be netting us 3 picks after the 1st round I believe. So they'll have to see where they think they are heading into 2024. Do they think they're one of the best teams in baseball? Or do they think they'd be better off picking up 3-6 top 100 prospects by trading both of them(and Adames at tht point because...wouldn't make much sense to keep him). 

 

This is going to be one of the most interesting storylines the next two years...and I suspect David Stearns place in the organization...should he BE a part of the organization will dictate which route they take. 

[jay87shot]

I would really hesitate to trade Burnes this offseason unless we get mlb proven talent. He is so essential to our pitching staff as an ace, especially with the extreme inconsistency of the offense. In my opinion, Woody would bring in a really great package that might fix some holes. In order to trade Burnes, I would want a package with a bat and starter. 

For Example

Burnes for Ty France, George Kirby, and prospects

Burnes for Alejandro Kirk, Cavan Biggio, and good pitching prospects

That's just of the top of my head, I am sure there would be better ideas.

[MVP2110]

I'm fascinated to see what direction the Front Office takes this offseason. Almost assuredly 1 of Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, or Houser is dealt in order to open up a spot for Ashby fulltime. Do they deal 2 or 3 though to try and maximize their return and then either sign a vet FA or give Small a real chance in the rotation? Not to mention Gasser who might start next season in Nashville.

At Catcher Feliciano will have 1 option remaining, do they start him in AAA and pair Caritini with a vet catcher(Severino perhaps) or do they give Feliciano a chance to stick in the bigs?

Turang seems likely to get a shot next season, but do they give him the keys as the 2b or do they give him more of a Jace role to begin?

The outfield is probably the most fascinating to me. With Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz, and Wiemer all knocking on the door to the Big leagues do they deal away Taylor or Renfroe to open up a spot? Do they move Yelich to DH fulltime? 

And on top of this what is their timeline projection with any of these prospects? Do they try and keep them down long enough to gain that extra year of service time or do they start some in the majors from day 1 to see if any can win ROY which would earn the Brewers some extra picks in the draft. If they do start them in the minors then they will need someone in the bigs temporarily, who could they get as a short term stop gap?

With the plethora of prospects seemingly able to make an impact at the Major League Level next season, it makes the offseason fascinating 

[brewmann04]

Walk away from Wong save that cash and you know one of the two Woodruff or Burnes won’t be around long term. But I agree Lauer or Housner will be gone. As for Renfoe is he a Fa ? 

[wibadgers23]

It's fun to think about what we could potentially get in return for Burnes.  At the same time, it's a depressing thought as guys like Burnes don't come around very often.  I'm sure all of the contending teams would be lining up to trade for Burnes along with a few up and coming teams like the Orioles and Rangers.  I would demand two things at a minimum in a trade for Burnes - a high profile corner infield prospect like Bady or Jung and a high end pitching prospect.  We still have two more years of control so the haul would have to be absolutely massive and it wouldn't surprise me to see a team go above and beyond to acquire his services.

[MVP2110]

I could be open to the idea of taking a step back in 2023, dealing Burnes, Woodruff, and Renfroe. Giving the rookies a chance and then filling in in 2024 what we need. Similar to what we did from 2017 to 2018. I think even without Woodruff and Burnes we could be respectable

[UpandIn]

16 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

It's fun to think about what we could potentially get in return for Burnes.  At the same time, it's a depressing thought as guys like Burnes don't come around very often.  I'm sure all of the contending teams would be lining up to trade for Burnes along with a few up and coming teams like the Orioles and Rangers.  I would demand two things at a minimum in a trade for Burnes - a high profile corner infield prospect like Bady or Jung and a high end pitching prospect.  We still have two more years of control so the haul would have to be absolutely massive and it wouldn't surprise me to see a team go above and beyond to acquire his services.

Agreed...and this is why I keep going back to the Rangers. All the money they spent on those middle IFers, Seager and Seimen. They have a 23 year old at 3B who was a top 100 prospect heading into the season. You send them Hunter Renfroe to give them another bat in the OF, one of their few weak spots...and then you ask for the moon back. 

Get back Jung, Wright, Rucker and then 2 more lower tier prospects. If they don't go for it, they don't, but I'm with you.

The Mets, Baty, Prada, Tidwell+2 or 3 more prospects. Pretty sure you're not getting Alvarez, but if you can get Baty and Alvarez+Tidwell, you have to consider that, don't you?

And I wouldn't be afraid to sign a couple of these guys a month into the year if they look like they're competent hitters. Jung/Baty/Alvarez 6/60 with 3 options for 14 per. 
Frelick, something similar, maybe a little less. 

That's beyond premature, talking about contract extensions for prospects that aren't on your team and who you probably can't get...but it makes the inevitable sting of losing Burnes a little more palpable.

 

And of course, the assumption that we're going to lose Burnes means we're DEFINITELY giving him a 5/140 extension with a 6th year TEAM option for 35M. 6/175. I don't really believe that'll happen, but with all the young, cost controlled players we've got coming up, I do think we could pull that off. It may not be wise, but...

I do think Woodruff would be more receptive given his age and raynauds? 5/110, option for 30 and 10 buyout? 5/120 guaranteed? 

[UpandIn]

18 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

I'm fascinated to see what direction the Front Office takes this offseason. Almost assuredly 1 of Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, or Houser is dealt in order to open up a spot for Ashby fulltime. Do they deal 2 or 3 though to try and maximize their return and then either sign a vet FA or give Small a real chance in the rotation? Not to mention Gasser who might start next season in Nashville.

At Catcher Feliciano will have 1 option remaining, do they start him in AAA and pair Caritini with a vet catcher(Severino perhaps) or do they give Feliciano a chance to stick in the bigs?

Turang seems likely to get a shot next season, but do they give him the keys as the 2b or do they give him more of a Jace role to begin?

The outfield is probably the most fascinating to me. With Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz, and Wiemer all knocking on the door to the Big leagues do they deal away Taylor or Renfroe to open up a spot? Do they move Yelich to DH fulltime? 

And on top of this what is their timeline projection with any of these prospects? Do they try and keep them down long enough to gain that extra year of service time or do they start some in the majors from day 1 to see if any can win ROY which would earn the Brewers some extra picks in the draft. If they do start them in the minors then they will need someone in the bigs temporarily, who could they get as a short term stop gap?

With the plethora of prospects seemingly able to make an impact at the Major League Level next season, it makes the offseason fascinating 

All great points. You could, in theory, still be a competitive team if you moved on from Burnes AND Woodruff. This could be the best time to do it or the worst. There is such a HUGE gap between how these prospects could perform...maybe it's better to find these teams that have been mentioned(the Baltimore deals suggested are both GREAT deals returns that are just insane). 

Right now, you have a 2 year window...and when you've got Burnes and Woodruff, you could win a WS in either of those two years. I still think they could win it this year. 

IF you trade them though, then maybe keep Turang in AAA until it's late enough in the year that you get another year out of him, maybe you deal Adames if he hits. Build up this farm system so it's a top 2-3 system with 4-5 more power arms who'd be in AA or above next year, plus a corner IFer, a slew of OF prospects, some 2B prospects. 

I've already thrown out a bunch of names, but two years of a Cy Young for a team starved for winning or one that's so close like Toronto or maybe we raid the Angels for everything they've got while they try and convince Ohtani to stick around(that guy generates so much revenue, you might be able to get them to take back most of Yelich's contract to get Burnes AND still grab a couple prospects(they've got a 2nd round pick from St. Mary's...which would be nice symetry). 

Maybe Burnes+Yelich+Peralta and his surplus value to get rid of Yelich's big contract for O'Hoppe+Bush+Bachman+Madden+ a couple other lotty tickets. Gives the Angels 2 pitching prospects, an OFer ahead of Trout who can get on base and give them a short term window to try and help Ohtani stick around. 

3 high upside arms, a good catching prospect, plus a couple lower level guys and you reset the payroll.

 

It'd be like going through one of those MASSIVE Astros/Orioles like rebuilds...but you'd be skipping the 2-3 years of 100 loss teams and be looking at almost 0 money on the books for 2025 year when these prospects could be hitting their strides.

And the fan reaction to this type of move would likely be akin to Disco Demolition reaction but over a whole season!



I really wouldn't want to be the one making any of these decisions though...I just don't know how I'd be able to trade Corbin Burnes or Woodruff. And ultimately, I don't think we actually will. 

[UpandIn]

17 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

Walk away from Wong save that cash and you know one of the two Woodruff or Burnes won’t be around long term. But I agree Lauer or Housner will be gone. As for Renfoe is he a Fa ? 

Renfroe has one more year of arby left. I'd guess ~11M next year. Wong is a pretty obvious one to me, but I MIGHT actually pick up that option. It costs 8M as we've got a 2M buyout...and he looks like he may be the top 2B on the FA market. We'll get a better idea by the end of the year, but you might be able to deal him, save that 2M and get back a decent prospect for him(I'm talking about one or two 40-45 FV type prospects). 

 

I'll make one bet. If we hear about the Brewers making offers to Burnes or Woodruff, the chances they get traded start going up. We usually don't hear about these offers unless they're not real offers. Like Sabathia, Grinke, Prince...among others. 

That could lay the floor for saying, "he didn't want to sign here and we could lose him for nothing," for whomever they're talking about(but I'd love to be proven wrong and actually sign one). 

[Playing Catch]

As much as the team has been craving a consistent, middle-of-the-order bat since Braun retired (and Yelly broke his patella), I think that when the team decides to trade Woody/Burnes that they will get back a good, young controllable starter (e.g. Lauer/Freddie/Houser) in addition to any positional prospects. Or perhaps even a controllable starter + two or three 18-year-old DSL stud pitchers. I would be surprised if they traded them for unproven talent.

[wibadgers23]

I would be shocked if we traded Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason, but if we did we’d have a top 5 system in all of baseball. Can a rotation of Peralta-Ashby-Houser-Small-Free agent? get you into the playoffs?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

28 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

I would be shocked if we traded Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason, but if we did we’d have a top 5 system in all of baseball. Can a rotation of Peralta-Ashby-Houser-Small-Free agent? get you into the playoffs?

Are they trading Eric Lauer too?

[umphrey]

I don’t think there is any urgency to trade woodruff or burnes and I don’t think they will do it. 2 years of control vs. 1 year of control, I don’t think it affects the return that much. Trade some other pitcher and/or some MiLB outfielders instead. We have a lot of minor league ammo right now. 

[wibadgers23]

17 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Are they trading Eric Lauer too?

Poop! Nope, forgot him. So maybe insert Lauer for Small.

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, umphrey said:

I don’t think there is any urgency to trade woodruff or burnes and I don’t think they will do it. 2 years of control vs. 1 year of control, I don’t think it affects the return that much. Trade some other pitcher and/or some MiLB outfielders instead. We have a lot of minor league ammo right now. 

I don't agree with that. A 2nd year, that's two "bites of the apple."

I don't actually believe that they make that trade, but if they chose to do so, I think the return would be SIGNIFICANTLY higher now than in another year. 

 

15 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

As much as the team has been craving a consistent, middle-of-the-order bat since Braun retired (and Yelly broke his patella), I think that when the team decides to trade Woody/Burnes that they will get back a good, young controllable starter (e.g. Lauer/Freddie/Houser) in addition to any positional prospects. Or perhaps even a controllable starter + two or three 18-year-old DSL stud pitchers. I would be surprised if they traded them for unproven talent.

 

I think the argument for getting back an impact, middle of the order hitter(ideally 3B) came from filling in the lineup FOR Woodruff and Burnes. If they're trading them...then of course you have to go out and get pitching. 

I've suggested trade parameters, but all of them include TOR type pitchers who are at LEAST in HiA, mostly in AA. We've seen the Brewers built around offense(Weeks, Hardy, Prince, Hart, Braun..etc...). They were hit or miss and needed to go all in to get to the playoffs.

We've seen these last 4 years, teams built on pitching. 

Save for someone like Jung from the Rangers, pitchers should be the priority in any potential trades involving Woodruff and or Burnes...in MY opinion.

[UpandIn]

17 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

I would be shocked if we traded Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason, but if we did we’d have a top 5 system in all of baseball. Can a rotation of Peralta-Ashby-Houser-Small-Free agent? get you into the playoffs?

It's certainly not hard to envision Ashby going from 4.5 ERA to a 3.00 ERA guy by cleaning up some of the 0-2 issues, some of the 1st pitch issues. Where he's really struggling. ESPECIALLY relative to the rest of the league. 

[umphrey]

There are a lot of scenarios that could play out with Burnes and Woodruff. If they get traded away, I think the most likely is they go out as a 3 month rental. I think the 2nd most likely is that they get traded in the off-season then quickly sign an extension. 

[Austin Tatious]

It's notable that Ashby has following the same pattern that Woodruff, Peralta, Burnsie, and Lauer have had in terms of developing as a starting pitcher.  There is a lot to like with him.  Worst case, I think he can be a weapon out of the pen.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't like any idea that starts with Yelich at DH. Hiura is simply a better hitter. Yelich can be the 4th OF if they find better OFs. The money Stearns blew on him is spent money, don't let they lead to another bad decision. 

[Soupbone]

Does Yelich have any trade value? Could he be moved?

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, Soupbone said:

Does Yelich have any trade value? Could he be moved?

He has none.  You would have to trade him to a team that he would approve to be traded to. So Dodgers or maybe the Angels.  You won’t get anything back other than another bad contract.  

[Robocaller]

I believe next year is closer to an "all-in" year rather than a "start over" year.

so we keep (at least most of) our rotation.

Our excess is at promising minor league OFs, so we should consider moving one of them in a trade to help us elsewhere. Frelick and Chourio are the ones I don't want to lose.

We could use a corner-infielder/DH. If we can replace Tellez or move Urias to a 2b/utility role, that would be great.

McCutchen and Davis should be gone. Frelick replaces one. The other is replaced by a signee or someone from the farm. If we can resign Taylor Rogers to a decent contract (2 years @ 7M or less), we do; otherwise we find the best guy we can at that price.

The improvement comes from our existing pitching (which has underperformed this year), or the marginal changes we make.

If Frelick get's promoted and hits .290, and the pitching performs,  I think we're in great shape.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

He has none.  You would have to trade him to a team that he would approve to be traded to. So Dodgers or maybe the Angels.  You won’t get anything back other than another bad contract.  

Yelich needs to have the type of year next year that...if he was a FA, a team would be willing to pay him 5/110M in order for the Brewers to just unload him. That'd involved more than just getting on base and even hitting for a better average. It'd need to be closer to .280/.370/.470 and 30 HRs.  A 3-4 WAR season. And then you're probably picking up 3-4M a year and still paying the deferred money. That feels extremely unlikely, BUT, he is only 30 years old and maybe he finds a way to deal with that back issue and regain a little bit of that back speed?

 

Otherwise it's packaging another very valuable player or a prospect...or 2 in order to rid ourselves of his deal. 

But a big year next year with Burnes, Woodruff and then moving on from all 3 would be just about the ideal scenario. Just a very bad luck signing. I can't imagine anyone at the time we signed him would be asking year 1 of the team friendly extension, if we could find a way to unload him at this point. 

 

 

[jay87shot]

The more I watch the crew here down the stretch the more I am hoping for giving more rookies a chance. 

Trading Yeli would be rough because we would likely need to take back a contract like Rendon, Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Sale, etc. or add him in with Burnes and get less back. I do agree that I would like Keston to get full time DH role next year, however you could probably do a Rowdy, Yeli, Keston, rookie OF platoon between 1B, LF, and DH and still find enough ab's for everyone (especially if Yeli could learn enough 1B to play say 20-30 games). 

I like the idea of trading 2 pitchers the idea of trading 2 pitchers this offseason and signing a vet like Wade Miley, Johnny Cueto, Mike Cleavinger or other to be a 5/6 starter on a 1 year deal with an option. If we trade pitching, let Wong walk, and trade Renfroe we should have some nice money to get a nice reliever and some other pieces. 

Also it would be nice to see if Urias could play some OF and take over Jace's role. If we get a 3B, I would prefer Turang at 2B full time and then Urias moving around giving the young guy more consistency.

Also what about trading Adames? I know he seems to be a guy that Counsil and Stearns like a ton however his batting line stinks and I doubt we extend Adames unless he takes less this year. Granted I would want pretty big haul for Willy and I doubt anyone gives up 2 good pieces for .226/.291/.460. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Granted I would want pretty big haul for Willy and I doubt anyone gives up 2 good pieces for .226/.291/.460. 

It's a good thing, then, that the Brewers would likely never trade him to a team who is basing his value off of this year's stat line. He probably isn't ultimately the guy who put up .285/.366/.525 in 2021 either, but I would imagine any team looking to deal for him sees him as something in between those two lines, and as a 27--year-old SS who also provides good defense and energy to a lineup, that has a lot of value.