What's the plan for Kolten Wong next year?

[NBBrewFan]

12 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Wait....I just looked up Turang's stats. Why are bending over backwards to figure out how to dump Wong for Turang at 2B? .765 OPS in AAA isn't anything to be ashamed of...but like, Wong has an OPS just as high hitting MLB pitching. 

Because we already have 6 players who are more suited for being DH as they are liabilities in the field, we need the $8M in savings to balance the overall budget/can use it to address other areas as the budget is likely going DOWN.  As Monty (and others?) have pointed out, the offensive increase from Wong has been driven primarily from platooning him (less AB against LH and more against RH) which makes him only a platoon option at this point and a DH when he's in the game as his defense is crap.  

Turang has been young for almost every level he has played at (he is 22 in AAA).  The main reason the Brewers have been aggressive with his promotions is that his defense is VERY VERY VERY good. So while he doesn't have the bang of a hitter who has spent 1-2 years at each level, he has near elite/to elite defense as a factor and part of the reason some have suggested moving an elite SS in Adames to 3B to insert another "near elite" defender.

Edit: Turang has struggled his first taste at a new level, but has improved with more experience at each level.  He will likely struggle with MLB pitching initially (a reason he should be platooned to start the year), but he will improve and with his defense he will likely be more valuable (either outright with his offense/defense or given minimum salary vs $8M).

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

That just doesn't take into the account of the bigger picture. If the defense is significantly better with Adames at 3B (provided he's 100% for it either through an extension or some other inducement), Turang at SS and Urias at 2B than having Turang/Brosseau or Peterson at 3B, Adames at SS and Urias at 2B or Urias at 3B, Adames at SS and Turang at 2B then you should do it.  It's the overall performance that matters more than whether 1 player is elite at SS, but the rest of the infield is still subpar.

I'd argue we're better off with Turang/Wong/Urias at 2B and keeping Adames at SS, while looking for an upgrade at 3B or even going with Peterson/Brosseau if that fails. We have literally zero evidence that Adames can play an effective 3B, but we know he is an elite SS and that his bat plays very well there. The upside just isn't there to offset the risk imo. 

[monty57]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Wait....I just looked up Turang's stats. Why are bending over backwards to figure out how to dump Wong for Turang at 2B? .765 OPS in AAA isn't anything to be ashamed of...but like, Wong has an OPS just as high hitting MLB pitching. 

Turang has been young for every level, so his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but it also means that he could be kept down. There's no huge rush to get him on the MLB roster.

I've been posting a lot of positives about Wong, and reasons they may keep him. He'll probably be worth the $10M he'd be paid.

The reasons for not exercising his option are basically that the Brewers could save $8M by letting him walk, which could be used elsewhere, and that his defense has declined significantly and he is really a platoon player at this point.

Meanwhile, Turang would play for league minimum and is supposed to be very good defensively. He's got very little power, but makes good contact and should get on base.

Another option would be to move Urias to 2B. He still hits better than the average major leaguer (wRC+ over 100), and hits righties and lefties, he's just not good defensively on the left-side of the infield. He could be a positive player at 2B. I think his approach has him in the doghouse, but he's a valid option.

As I've said, it's not a "slam dunk" decision. A good case could be made for going down multiple different roads.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Because we already have 6 players who are more suited for being DH as they are liabilities in the field, we need the $8M in savings to balance the overall budget/can use it to address other areas as the budget is likely going DOWN.  As Monty (and others?) have pointed out, the offensive increase from Wong has been driven primarily from platooning him (less AB against LH and more against RH) which makes him only a platoon option at this point and a DH when he's in the game as his defense is crap.  

Turang has been young for almost every level he has played at (he is 22 in AAA).  The main reason the Brewers have been aggressive with his promotions is that his defense is VERY VERY VERY good. So while he doesn't have the bang of a hitter who has spent 1-2 years at each level, he has near elite/to elite defense as a factor and part of the reason some have suggested moving an elite SS in Adames to 3B to insert another "near elite" defender.

Peterson has been an elite-type defender this year. Why not just resign him and insert Turang/Urias at 2B instead of trying to make Adames a 3B. Defensive problems solved. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd argue we're better off with Turang/Wong/Urias at 2B and keeping Adames at SS, while looking for an upgrade at 3B or even going with Peterson/Brosseau if that fails. We have literally zero evidence that Adames can play an effective 3B, but we know he is an elite SS and that his bat plays very well there. The upside just isn't there to offset the risk imo. 

I agree they should look for an external option for 3B.  I am concerned that we get a JAG if they go the inexpensive route, but take a hit if they have to trade one of Burnes/Woodruff to plug the 3B hole for years to come. As monty said, it will be interesting to see what happens this offseason and how the Brewers approach the impending FA while improving the team.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Because we already have 6 players who are more suited for being DH as they are liabilities in the field, we need the $8M in savings to balance the overall budget/can use it to address other areas as the budget is likely going DOWN.  As Monty (and others?) have pointed out, the offensive increase from Wong has been driven primarily from platooning him (less AB against LH and more against RH) which makes him only a platoon option at this point and a DH when he's in the game as his defense is crap.  

Turang has been young for almost every level he has played at (he is 22 in AAA).  The main reason the Brewers have been aggressive with his promotions is that his defense is VERY VERY VERY good. So while he doesn't have the bang of a hitter who has spent 1-2 years at each level, he has near elite/to elite defense as a factor and part of the reason some have suggested moving an elite SS in Adames to 3B to insert another "near elite" defender.

Edit: Turang has struggled his first taste at a new level, but has improved with more experience at each level.  He will likely struggle with MLB pitching initially (a reason he should be platooned to start the year), but he will improve and with his defense he will likely be more valuable (either outright with his offense/defense or given minimum salary vs $8M).

Who exactly are the 6 players we're currently playing who are more suited for DH? Yelich, Tellez, McCutchen.......Renfroe? His arm is going to keep him in RF, and he's not that bad there relative to the rest of the league. McCutchen is as good as gone. Hiura isn't even playing and doesn't look like he's in the team's plans for next year anyways. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Peterson has been an elite-type defender this year. Why not just resign him and insert Turang/Urias at 2B instead of trying to make Adames a 3B. Defensive problems solved. 

That's definitely a way to go that I wouldn't be upset about depending on what they do with the rest of the team this offseason.  Personally I would put Yelich as the full time DH (with Renfroe taking some AB), Have Mitchell or Frelick Man CF/LF (maybe with a platoon of Taylor/Mitchell) and Renfroe in RF.  I would be fine with a Peterson/Brosseau Platoon at 3B (soft platoon), Adames at SS, and Turang/Urias at 2B.  Then get some RP help, and an option for platooning with Tellez at 1B (hopefully with better defense).  As I have stated before I would like them to get a cheap vet who could function as the #6 starter so that Ashby goes back to the bullpen as a long man/multi-inning reliever for another year and hope that he can take the next step when they move him back into the rotation.  It improves our bullpen internally while still having him as insurance against an injury to a SP (plus Gasser in AAA next year).

[RedStickBrew]

21 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Wait....I just looked up Turang's stats. Why are bending over backwards to figure out how to dump Wong for Turang at 2B? .765 OPS in AAA isn't anything to be ashamed of...but like, Wong has an OPS just as high hitting MLB pitching. 

The second half, last 90 days, he has .858 OPS and has hit for more power. He is still progressing.  I think he is a good platoon candidate once he makes it to the major leagues given his history. 

[NBBrewFan]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Who exactly are the 6 players we're currently playing who are more suited for DH? Yelich, Tellez, McCutchen.......Renfroe? His arm is going to keep him in RF, and he's not that bad there relative to the rest of the league. McCutchen is as good as gone. Hiura isn't even playing and doesn't look like he's in the team's plans for next year anyways. 

Wong and Urias at 3B are the other 2.  They can live with Renfroe in RF and Tellez at 1B if they can improve their LF, 3B, 2B (Urias would likely be average/above at 2B).

[monty57]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Peterson has been an elite-type defender this year. Why not just resign him and insert Turang/Urias at 2B instead of trying to make Adames a 3B. Defensive problems solved. 

Because every year outside of 2022, Peterson has been around a replacement-level player. At 32, I think the odds are that this year is the outlier and re-signing him to be an everyday player would probably blow up on us. Banking on bad players to suddenly become consistently good players at a late stage in their career probably isn't a good bet.

Adames will probably remain at SS, but barring an extension, that is probably a one-year thing, as we will likely trade him prior to his leaving as a free agent. His pending free agency is the reason he probably wouldn't want to move to 3B, but it's also the reason that we need to have a long-term replacement plan in place. 

Turang is the "heir apparent," so whether they move Adames off short or not for 2023, Turang will likely be the guy who's manning that spot in 2024 and beyond.

The short-term nature of Adames doesn't change regardless of whether he is SS or 3B. The only way that changes is if the Brewers decide to extend him. That's really the only point were the team should be overly concerned about keeping him happy long-term. Otherwise, the team should put the players in the positions where they think they will win the most games in 2023, and then trade Adames after the season.

[wiguy94]

30 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd argue we're better off with Turang/Wong/Urias at 2B and keeping Adames at SS, while looking for an upgrade at 3B or even going with Peterson/Brosseau if that fails. We have literally zero evidence that Adames can play an effective 3B, but we know he is an elite SS and that his bat plays very well there. The upside just isn't there to offset the risk imo. 

This just brings back to my question...who? The best 3B options in FA (in our budget) are Jace and Drury. Neither of those are very intriguing options. We could look for a trade but again who is out there? I have seen Yandy Diaz suggested by numerous poeple but his defense is horrifyingly bad at 3B. Just not much out there at the position. 

[nate82]

6 hours ago, endaround said:

Can we stop with the square pegs in round holes? Turang's bat is passable at shortstop with a decent glove.  It isn't at 2B.  And that is ignoring that he hasn't played 2B.  The Brewers have a capable 2B if Wong goes in Urias (Urias has neither the glove nor the bat for 3B) and a decent 3B platoon if Peterson is re-signed.  The difference between Peterson last year and this year isn't his bat (wRC+ 98 vs wRC+ 101 is basically noise) but playing more 3B where he's a good defensively (DRS 10, UZR 1.9, RAA 4) vs 2B where he's bad (DRS -3, UZR -1.6, RAA -1).  Otherwise  trading for a 3B makes sense (Diaz is 31 and about to enter his 2nd arby year so it's likely Tampa will be looking to deal).

I like Turang but I do not see a place for him with the Brewers outside of a utility role which while providing depth doesn't help to actually improve the team.

 

Turang's offense is perfectly fine at 2B.  As long as he can put up a 100+ wRC+ he will be perfectly fine at 2B.  I think a good comp would be Santiago Espinal of the Blue Jays for Turang for his first full season.  

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Wait....I just looked up Turang's stats. Why are bending over backwards to figure out how to dump Wong for Turang at 2B? .765 OPS in AAA isn't anything to be ashamed of...but like, Wong has an OPS just as high hitting MLB pitching. 

If Turang puts up a .765 OPS in MLB that would put him as the 5th best qualified 2B in MLB just ahead of Gleyber Torres and Marcus Semien.  He would be just behind Luis Arraez who has a .791 OPS.  Wong also costs more than what Turang will cost and will allow the Brewers to spend that savings else where.  

 

As for Adames moving over to 3B I don't see it unless he gets an extension that pays him as a top 5 SS.  If Adames was a FA this offseason I think he would get something similar to what Baez signed for.  So 6-years $140m is what I think is the low end for a contract for Adames.  In order to move Adames over to 3B I think that is what it is going to take him to move from SS to 3B.  I don't think that makes any sense for the Brewers and moving over to 3B without a contract extension doesn't make sense for Adames.  

Adames will get payed more as a SS than he will as a 3B.  It just doesn't make any sense for Adames to willingly move over to 3B without getting a big contract extension.  If you really want Turang to play SS you either need to wait for Adames to become a FA or traded.  

[Hopper]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd argue we're better off with Turang/Wong/Urias at 2B and keeping Adames at SS, while looking for an upgrade at 3B or even going with Peterson/Brosseau if that fails. We have literally zero evidence that Adames can play an effective 3B, but we know he is an elite SS and that his bat plays very well there. The upside just isn't there to offset the risk imo. 

Brosseau at 3B would be bad, very bad.  We need a defender there too, not just a bat, and I don't think Brosseau is either.

[Hopper]

3 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

That's definitely a way to go that I wouldn't be upset about depending on what they do with the rest of the team this offseason.  Personally I would put Yelich as the full time DH (with Renfroe taking some AB), Have Mitchell or Frelick Man CF/LF (maybe with a platoon of Taylor/Mitchell) and Renfroe in RF.  I would be fine with a Peterson/Brosseau Platoon at 3B (soft platoon), Adames at SS, and Turang/Urias at 2B.  

Only problem with that is, it's almost the same offense we have this year, minus McCutchen.  Will Frelick be that much of a difference maker?  Maybe...  Turang/Urias taking the place of Wong offensively probably won't be an improvement.

We desperately need to add a REAL bat at 3B (I will be extremly disappointed if we go with a Peterson/Brosseau platoon)

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Only problem with that is, it's almost the same offense we have this year, minus McCutchen.  Will Frelick be that much of a difference maker?  Maybe...  Turang/Urias taking the place of Wong offensively probably won't be an improvement.

We desperately need to add a REAL bat at 3B (I will be extremly disappointed if we go with a Peterson/Brosseau platoon)

Do you have a suggestion who this "REAL" bat at 3B would be? Assuming Arenado re-ups with St. Louis and Turner's club option is accepted by LA then the best FA options are Jace, Drury, and Longoria. The trade market doesn't look too much better either.

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

Only problem with that is, it's almost the same offense we have this year, minus McCutchen.  Will Frelick be that much of a difference maker?  Maybe...  Turang/Urias taking the place of Wong offensively probably won't be an improvement.

We desperately need to add a REAL bat at 3B (I will be extremly disappointed if we go with a Peterson/Brosseau platoon)

Here are the Brewers MLB rankings for several offensive metrics:

BA = 22nd

OBP = 13th

ISO = 4th

This offense is 4th in the majors at hitting extra base hits.  That's great, but they are abysmal at hitting singles and pretty average at getting on base (mostly because they can't get hits as their BB% is 4th also).  Taking away McCutcheon and Wong and replacing a bunch of CF plate appearances (Cain, Davis and Taylor who are all bad at BA and some slugging issues) you can increase team BA and OBP while only compromising ISO slightly. This team relies so heavily on HR because they pretty much have the same hitter across the board, replacing some of those hitters with higher average/higher OBP hitters should help improve the offenses scoring without giving away much of the power,

Looking at Mitchell, he's actually produced better than any other player who's played CF (outside of possibly Tyrone Taylor, but he is the poster child for the bad in this team with over 0.200 ISO, but a 0.280 OBP).  Frelick plus Mitchell likely by the end of the year (2023) will be contributing more than we got from our DH and CF this year.  Turang if used properly initially (platoon him until he gets acclimated) could also be another higher BA/OBP contributer to the lineup with a lower ISO.  The way this offense is currently constructed we can give up a double to get 2 singles and give up a few triples/HR to get 3/4 more singles and be a better offense.

[Robocaller]

52 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Do you have a suggestion who this "REAL" bat at 3B would be? Assuming Arenado re-ups with St. Louis and Turner's club option is accepted by LA then the best FA options are Jace, Drury, and Longoria. The trade market doesn't look too much better either.

there really isn't anyone, unless someone magically becomes available.

 

[Robocaller]

Some corrections:

Turang has reverse splits, so you don't sit him vs. LHP, unless he proves he can't hit LHP in the majors..

Over the course of his MLB career, Urias has his best defensive stats (baseball reference) at 3B, second best at 2B, and pretty bad at SS (in a relatively small sample).  He had a 3.1 WAR in 2021, mostly playing 3B. Hard to find someone better. 

 

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, endaround said:

Can we stop with the square pegs in round holes? Turang's bat is passable at shortstop with a decent glove.  It isn't at 2B. 

Did you know that there is ONE qualified 2B with an OPS above .800, while there are FOUR qualified SS with an OPS above 800. I don't know where you got the idea that 2B hit >> SS.

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Some corrections:

Turang has reverse splits, so you don't sit him vs. LHP, unless he proves he can't hit LHP in the majors..

Over the course of his MLB career, Urias has his best defensive stats (baseball reference) at 3B, second best at 2B, and pretty bad at SS (in a relatively small sample).  He had a 3.1 WAR in 2021, mostly playing 3B. Hard to find someone better. 

 

There's a huge quality difference between LHP in the minor leagues and LHP in the MLB. Just because someone has reverse splits in the minors doesn't mean they will carry them into the MLB. 

DRS is the only metric that likes Urias at 3B and that's because he stands right next to the line and prevents doubles. Urias UZR/150 is 1.6 at 2B and -0.9 at 3B. His OAA is 4 at 2B and -4 at 3B. 2B is by far his best position. His arm just is not suited to plat on the left side of the infield.

[sveumrules]

17 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Did you know that there is ONE qualified 2B with an OPS above .800, while there are FOUR qualified SS with an OPS above 800. I don't know where you got the idea that 2B hit >> SS.

Yeah, SS offense has ticked up notably over the last five years or so.

League average wRC+ for SS from 2013-17 was 87, 90, 87, 92, 92.

From 2018 to 2022 it has been 97, 100, 102, 99, 96.

Offense at 2B has been up the last couple two seasons too with average wRC+ at 99, 98 compared to 93, 92, 89 from 2018-20. 

Buncha second basemen went nuts in 2016 with league average wRC+ at 106 that year after being at 94 in 2015 then dropping back down to 98 in 2017.

[NBBrewFan]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Offense at 2B has been up the last couple two seasons too with average wRC+ at 99, 98 compared to 93, 92, 89 from 2018-20. 

Would that be the Cano effect?

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Turang's offense is perfectly fine at 2B.  As long as he can put up a 100+ wRC+ he will be perfectly fine at 2B.  I think a good comp would be Santiago Espinal of the Blue Jays for Turang for his first full season.  

If Turang puts up a .765 OPS in MLB that would put him as the 5th best qualified 2B in MLB just ahead of Gleyber Torres and Marcus Semien.  He would be just behind Luis Arraez who has a .791 OPS.  Wong also costs more than what Turang will cost and will allow the Brewers to spend that savings else where.  

 

 

So a sub .700 OPS? Yah, that’s the problem.

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Because we already have 6 players who are more suited for being DH as they are liabilities in the field, we need the $8M in savings to balance the overall budget/can use it to address other areas as the budget is likely going DOWN.  As Monty (and others?) have pointed out, the offensive increase from Wong has been driven primarily from platooning him (less AB against LH and more against RH) which makes him only a platoon option at this point and a DH when he's in the game as his defense is crap.  

First off who? Secondly, I don’t get your point regardless because Wong has the 3rd highest OPS on the team. Seems pretty good for a DH.

Just writing him up as a platoon guy is quite an assumption. Sure, his splits aren’t the greatest this year…but historically they aren’t that bad. That’s like assuming Peterson is about to have even splits moving forward. Probably not going to happen.

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, monty57 said:

Turang has been young for every level, so his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but it also means that he could be kept down. There's no huge rush to get him on the MLB roster.

I've been posting a lot of positives about Wong, and reasons they may keep him. He'll probably be worth the $10M he'd be paid.

The reasons for not exercising his option are basically that the Brewers could save $8M by letting him walk, which could be used elsewhere, and that his defense has declined significantly and he is really a platoon player at this point.

Meanwhile, Turang would play for league minimum and is supposed to be very good defensively. He's got very little power, but makes good contact and should get on base.

Another option would be to move Urias to 2B. He still hits better than the average major leaguer (wRC+ over 100), and hits righties and lefties, he's just not good defensively on the left-side of the infield. He could be a positive player at 2B. I think his approach has him in the doghouse, but he's a valid option.

As I've said, it's not a "slam dunk" decision. A good case could be made for going down multiple different roads.

I think there are some very unreasonable expectations. There just aren't 3B available. 

I agree with you that Adames to 3rd, sliding Turang in at SS, Urias at 2B, that makes the most sense.
And I don't think we need evidence to know that Adames can play a few steps to the left. I don't get that, I don't get the Baez comp(he nearly won an MVP). I don't see Adames being worth 7/140 at THIS point...particularly, again, in a time in which it seems like there's an incredible FA SS class each year and he's got two years left.

Best for the team is obvious. Adames-3B, Turang-SS, Urias-2B

It also feels like we're glossing over the rules changes with regard to the shift. I think Willy having a GG caliber year at SS, then moving to 3B where I think it's a safe assumption to say he'd excel defensively, it wouldn't hurt him in free agency.

But, if it would and if Willy really doesn't want to play there, then you decide to you either kinda force the issue or do you just do the same thing you've done this year with Turang, Urais, Brossea, Peterson moving around and playing 2nd and 3rd from day to day.

I also feel like it should be mentioned that MOST people wouldn't be expecting 160 games from Turang next year. So Adames would still be playing 3B when Turang wasn't playing.

As for why we're trying to get Turang into the lineup based on his AAA production...I've done this a few times now. It's like people don't understand 22 year old prospects are in the process of developing.

Willy Adames in AAA at age 22- .286/.353/.412 .765 OPS
Brice Turang in AAA at age 22    .285/.360/.405 .765 OPS 

And Turang also has 34 SBs and 2 CS this year. 

You're saving 8M to...MAYBE 10M(if you were to pick up the option and trade him). And that leaves money to improve your team elsewhere and you're improving your team defense...on a team built on run prevention. 

He's also a player who makes contact and can help manufacture runs and do more than station to station baseball. That helps a team that's been so reliant on the HR ball. 

 

Finally...if we DON'T want to or Willy doesn't want to move to 3rd, fine. Turang's not a square peg at 2B. That's never exactly been a position you expect a power hitter. I don't know why his bat would be better suited for SS vs 2B, but with the new change to the shift, the 2B is going to be expected to cover much more ground, so his glove is certainly perfectly suited for 2B.

Now, that IS a bigger change than going from SS to 3rd, but he's already played some games there and he'll have a whole spring training to get ready for it...if he's not already. 

This really isn't that complicated. In order to acquire someone who ISN'T a "JAG" at 3B, you either trade an ace...and then during the season you lament your lack of aces or you...move Willy to 3rd. That is if you consider who we currently have over there right now as "JAGs."

 

We're not throwing out an IF like the 70's Reds. So it's trying to piece together how the players best fit...and it's obviously purely academic as nobody running the Brewers actually gives a **** what we think they should do.